Geology topics
Publications and source records attributed to Gregg J. Wiche.
Streamflow data are vital for a variety of water-resources issues, from flood warning to water supply planning. The collection of streamflow data is usually an involved and complicated process. This chapter serves as an overview of the streamflow data collection process. Readers with the need for the detailed information on the streamflow data collection process are referred to the many references noted in this chapter.
Changes in the seasonality and timing of annual peak streamflow in the north-central USA are likely because of changes in precipitation and temperature regimes. A source of long-term information about flood events across the study area is the U.S. Geological Survey peak streamflow database. However, one challenge of answering climate-related questions with this dataset is that even in snowmelt-dominated areas, it is a mixed population of snowmelt/spring rain generated peaks and summer/fall rain generated peaks. Therefore, a process was developed to divide the annual peaks into two populations, or seasons, snowmelt/spring, and summer/fall. The two series were then tested for the hypotheses that because of changes in precipitation regimes, the odds of summer/fall peaks have increased and, because of temperature changes, snowmelt/spring peaks happen earlier. Over climatologically and geographically similar regions in the north-central USA, logistic regression was used to model the odds of getting a summer/fall peak. When controlling for antecedent wet and dry conditions and geographical differences, the odds of summer/fall peaks occurring have increased across the study area. With respect to timing within the seasons, trend analysis showed that in northern portions of the study region, snowmelt/spring peaks are occurring earlier. The timing of snowmelt/spring peaks in three regions in the northern part of the study area is earlier by 8.7– 14.3 days. These changes have implications for water interests, such as potential changes in lead-time for flood forecasting or changes in the operation of flood-control dams.
The 2011 flood on the Missouri River was one of the largest floods since the river became regulated by a series of high dams in the mid-20th century (greater than 150,000 cubic feet per second during the peak). The flood persisted through most of the summer, eroding river banks, adding sand to sandbars, and moving the thalweg of the channel in many places. The U.S. Geological Survey monitored and assessed the changes in two reaches of the Missouri River: the Garrison Reach in North Dakota, bounded by the Garrison Dam and the Lake Oahe Reservoir, and the Recreational Reach along the boundary of South Dakota and Nebraska bounded upstream by the Gavins Point Dam and extending downstream from Ponca, Nebraska. Historical cross-section data from the Garrison Dam closure until immediately before the flood indicate that the upper reaches of the river near the dam experienced rapid erosion, channel incision, and island/sandbar loss following the dam closure. The erosion, incision, and land loss lessened with time. Conversely, the lower reach near the Lake Oahe Reservoir slackwaters became depositional with channel in-filling and sandbar growth through time as the flow slowed upon reaching the reservoir. Preliminary post-flood results in the Garrison Reach indicate that the main channel has deepened at most cross-sections whereas sandbars and islands have grown vertically. Sandbars and the thalweg migrated within the Recreational Reach, however net scouring and aggradation was minimal. Changes in the two-dimensional area of sandbars and islands are still being assessed using high-resolution satellite imagery. A sediment balance can be constructed for the Garrison Reach using cross-sections, bathymetric data, sand traps for wind-blown material, a quasi-three-dimensional numerical model, and dating of sediment cores. Data collection and analysis for a reach-scale sediment balance and a concurrent analysis of the effects of riparian and island vegetation on sediment deposition currently (2014) is ongoing.
The Missouri River has had a long history of anthropogenic modification with considerable impacts on river and riparian ecology, form, and function. During the 20th century, several large dam-building efforts in the basin served the needs for irrigation, flood control, navigation, and the generation of hydroelectric power. The managed flow provided a range of uses, including recreation, fisheries, and habitat. Fifteen dams impound the main stem of the river, with hundreds more on tributaries. Though the effects of dams and reservoirs are well-documented, their impacts have been studied individually, with relatively little attention paid to their interaction along a river corridor. We examine the morphological and sedimentological changes in the Upper Missouri River between the Garrison Dam in ND (operational in 1953) and Oahe Dam in SD (operational in 1959). Through historical aerial photography, stream gage data, and cross sectional surveys, we demonstrate that the influence of the upstream dam is still a major control of river dynamics when the backwater effects of the downstream reservoir begin. In the “Anthropocene”, dams are ubiquitous on large rivers and often occur in series, similar to the Garrison Dam Segment. We propose a conceptual model of how interacting dams might affect river geomorphology, resulting in distinct and recognizable morphologic sequences that we term “Inter-Dam sequence” characteristic of major rivers in the US.
During 2011, excessive precipitation resulted in widespread flooding in the Central United States with 33 fatalities and approximately $4.2 billion in damages reported in the Souris/Red River of the North (Souris/Red) and Mississippi River Basins. At different times, beginning in late February 2011 and extending through September 2011, various rivers in these basins had major flooding, with some locations receiving multiple rounds of flooding. Peak streamflow records were broken at 105 streamgages in the Souris/Red and Mississippi River Basins and annual runoff volume records set at 47 of the 211 streamgages analyzed for annual runoff. For the period of 1950 through 2011, the Ohio River provided almost one-half of the annual runoff at Vicksburg; the Missouri River contributed less than one-fourth, and the lower Mississippi River less than one-fourth. Those relative contribution patterns also occurred in 1973 and 2011, with the notable exception of the decrease in contribution of the lower Mississippi River tributaries and the increase in contribution from the upper Missouri River Basin in 2011 as compared to 1973 and the long-term average from 1950 to 2011.
The crest-stage gage program in Louisiana was evaluated to determine if the data were adequate for use in developing regional flood-frequency equations and to determine if any crest-stage gage stations could be discontinued. An abundance of data at many crest-stage gage stations and a lack of data for urban areas and flat-slope areas indicated a need for a shift in the number, type, and locations of gages. Correlations and comparisons of annual peak discharges and watershed characteristics of 96 existing stations resulted in the elimination of 72 stations and the addition of one new station, reducing the total network to 25 stations that could be used for future flood-frequency analyses. The adequacy of the reduced network for development and verification of regional flood-frequency equations was tested by comparing a set of regional flood-frequency equations developed using data from the full network with a set developed using data from the reduced network. The results indicate that the crest-stage gage network can be reduced to 25 stations and still provide adequate information for future flood-frequency analyses.
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), one of the principal Federal agencies responsible for the collection and interpretation of water-resources data, works with other Federal, State, local, tribal, and academic entities to ensure that accurate and timely data are available for making decisions regarding public welfare and property during natural disasters and to increase public awareness of the hazards that occur with such disasters. The Red River of the North Basin has a history of flooding and this poster is designed to increase public awareness of that history and of the factors that contribute to flooding.
The Red River of the North is a complex river system in the north-central plains of the United States. The river continues to affect the people and property within its basin. During June of 2002, major flooding occurred for the third time in 5 years in the Red River of the North Basin, especially on tributaries in northwestern Minnesota. The worst damage occurred in Roseau, Minn., where about 95 percent of the town was inundated. Extensive damage to roads, bridges, and crops occurred throughout the flooded area in northwestern Minnesota and northeastern North Dakota. Roseau County, Minn., was designated a major disaster area on June 14, 2002, by President Bush and later twelve more counties were added to the disaster declaration. Unlike the 1997 floods, which were the result of record-high, region-wide snowpacks and a late spring blizzard, the June 2002 floods were the result of heavy rainfall that swept across the region on June 9-10 and again on June 22-24, 2002. Flooding in the Red River of the North Basin commonly is caused by spring snowmelt, and the severity of the flooding is affected by (1) substantial precipitation in the fall that produces high levels of soil moisture; (2) above-normal snowfall in the winter; (3) moist, frozen ground that prohibits infiltration of moisture; (4) a late spring thaw; (5) above-normal precipitation during spring thaw; and (6) ice jams (temporary dams of ice) on rivers and streams. Flooding during June 2002, however, was not caused by most factors usually associated with major flooding in the Red River Basin. In fact, precipitation had been below normal since late last summer and as of June 1, 2002, the flooded area was in a moderate drought based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), one of the principal Federal agencies responsible for the collection and interpretation of water-resources data, works with other Federal, State, and local agencies to ensure that accurate and timely data are available for making decisions regarding the public's welfare (a listing of cooperators in the Red River Basin is given at the end of this report). This report presents preliminary meteorologic data provided by the National Weather Service, Grand Forks Office and water-resources 2002 flood data that were obtained from selected streamflow-gaging stations located in the Red River of the North Basin (fig. 1). Historical peak stages and peak discharges and the June 2002 peak stages, peak discharges, and recurrence intervals are shown in table 1. The streamflow-gaging stations are listed in downstream order by station number, and station locations are shown in figure 1. The June 2002 peak stages and peak discharges given in this preliminary report may be revised as site surveys are completed and additional field data are reviewed in the upcoming months. The peak discharges are used to determine the probability, often expressed in recurrence intervals, that a given discharge will be exceeded in the future. For example, a flood that has a 1-percent chance of exceedance in any given year would, on the long-term average, be expected to occur only about once a century; therefore, the flood would be termed a "100-year flood." However, the chance of such a flood occurring in any given year is 1 percent. Thus, a 100-year flood can occur in successive years at the same location. In some instances, recurrence interval estimates can be based on periods of regulated flow or made with historic adjustments when historic data are available.
The Devils Lake Basin is a 3,810-square-mile subbasin in the Red River of the North Basin. At an elevation of about 1,447 feet above sea level, Devils Lake begins to spill into Stump Lake; and at an elevation of about 1,459 feet above sea level, the combined lakes begin to spill through Tolna Coulee into the Sheyenne River. Since the end of glaciation about 10,000 years ago, Devils Lake has fluctuated between spilling and being dry. Research by the North Dakota Geological Survey indicates Devils Lake has overflowed into the Sheyenne River at least twice during the past 4,000 years and has spilled into the Stump Lakes several times (Bluemle, 1991; Murphy and others, 1997). John Bluemle, North Dakota State Geologist, concluded the natural condition for Devils Lake is either rising or falling, and the lake should not be expected to remain at any elevation for a long period of time. Recent conditions indicate the lake is in a rising phase. The lake rose 24.7 feet from February 1993 to August 1999, and flood damages in the Devils Lake Basin have exceeded $300 million. These damages, and the potential for additional damages, have led to an effort to develop an outlet to help control lake levels. Therefore, current and accurate climatologic and hydrologic data are needed to assess the viability of the various options to reduce flood damages at Devils Lake.
Devils Lake is a natural lake in northeastern North Dakota that is the terminus of a nearly 4,000-square-mile subbasin in the Red River of the North Basin. The lake has not reached its natural spill elevation to the Sheyenne River (a tributary of the Red River of the North) in recorded history. However, geologic evidence indicates a spill occurred sometime within the last 1,800 years. From 1993 to 1999, Devils Lake rose 24.5 feet and, at the present (August 2000), is about 13 feet below the natural spill elevation. The recent lake-level rise has caused flood damages exceeding $300 million and triggered development of future flood-control options to prevent further infrastructure damage and reduce the risk of a potentially catastrophic uncontrolled spill. Construction of an emergency outlet from the west end of Devils Lake to the Sheyenne River is one flood-control option being considered. This report describes the climatologic and hydrologic causes of the recent lake level rise, provides information on the potential for continued lake-level rises during the next 15 years, and describes the potential effectiveness of an emergency outlet in reducing future lake levels and in reducing the risk of an uncontrolled spill. The potential effects of an outlet on downstream water quantity and quality in the upper Sheyenne River also are described.
Statistical summaries of streamflow data through water year 1994 for selected active and discontinued U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations for the Red River of the North Basin downstream of Halstad, Minnesota, to and including Emerson, Manitoba, are presented in this report. The summaries for each streamflow-gaging station include (1) station description, (2) graph of the annual mean discharge for the period of record, (3) statistics of monthly and annual mean discharges, (4) graph of the annual flow duration, (5) monthly and annual flow duration, (6) probability of occurrence of annual high discharges, (7) probability of occurrence of annual low discharges, (8) probability of occurrence of seasonal low discharges, (9) annual peak discharge and corresponding gage height for the period of record, and (10) monthly and annual mean discharges for the period of record.
The "1997 Flood Tracking Chart for the Sheyenne River Basin" can be used by local citizens and emergency response personnel to record the latest river stage and predicted flood-crest information. By comparing the current state (water-surface elevation above some datum) and predicted flood crest to the recorded peak stages of previous floods, emergency response personnel and residents can make informed decisions concerning the threat to life and property. The flood tracking chart shows a map of the basin, the location of major real-time streamflow-gaging stations in the basin, and the historical recorded peak stages at selected stations. Each graph represents a station and has a scale on which to record the most recently reported river stage from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The predicted flood-crest information from the National Weather Service (NWS) also can be recorded on each graph.
Statistical summaries of streamflow data for all active and inactive gaging stations for the Red River Basin upstream of and including Halstad, Minnesota, are presented in this report. The summaries for each streamflow-gaging station include (1) manuscript (station description), (2) graph of the annual mean discharge for the period of record, (3) statistics of monthly and annual mean discharges, (4) graph of the annual flow duration, (5) monthly and annual flow duration, (6) probability of annual high discharges, (7) probability of annual low discharges, (8) probability of seasonal low discharges, (9) annual peak discharge and corresponding gage height for the period of record, and (10) monthly and annual mean discharges for the period of record.
No abstract available.
On the basis of three sediment-based chronologies, Fritz et al. ( 1994) concluded that during the ’Little Ice Age’ (about AD 1500 to 1850), the Devils Lake Basin generally had less effective moisture (precipitation minus evaporation) and warmer temperatures than at present. In this comment, we argue that historic data indicate that runoff and effective moisture were greater than at present. The largest nineteenth-century floods (AD 1826, 1852 and 1861) were significantly greater than the twentiethcentury floods, and flooding in the Red River of the North Basin occurred more frequently from AD 1800 to 1870 than since 1870. Between AD 1776 and 1870, the ratio of wet to dry years was about 2 to 1. Mean temperatures in all seasons were cooler for 1850-70 than for 1931-60. Lake levels of Devils Lake during the first half of the nineteenth century were higher than they are today, and, even when Devils Lake was almost dry, the salinity was less than the ’diatom-inferred’ salinity values that Fritz et al. (1994) estimated for 1800 through about 1850. We acknowledge the importance of high-resolution palaeoclimatic records, but interpretation of these records must be consistent with historic information.
The Devils Lake Basin is a 3,810-square-mile (mi 2 ) closed basin (fig. 1) in the Red River of the North Basin. About 3,320 mi 2 of the total 3,810 mi 2 is tributary to Devils Lake; the remainder is tributary to Stump Lake. Since glaciation, the lake level of Devils Lake has fluctuated from about 1,457 feet (ft) above sea level (asl), the natural spill elevation of the lake to the Sheyenne River, to 1,400 ft asl (Aronow, 1957). Although no documented records of lake levels are available before 1867, Upham (1895, p. 595), on the basis of tree-ring chronology, indicated that the lake level was 1,441 ft asl in 1830. Lake levels were recorded sporadically from 1867 to 1901 when the U.S. Geological Survey established a gaging station on Devils Lake. From 1867 to the present (1996), the lake level has fluctuated between a maximum of 1,438.4 ft asl in 1867 and a minimum of 1,400.9 ft asl in 1940 (fig. 2) . On July 31, 1996, the lake level was 1,437.8 ft asl, about 15.2 ft higher than the level recorded in February 1993 and the highest level in about 120 years. Since 1993, the lake level of Devils Lake (fig. 2) has risen rapidly in response to above-normal precipitation from the summer of 1993 to the present, and 30,000 acres of land around the lake have been flooded. The above-normal precipitation also has caused flooding elsewhere in the Devils Lake Basin. State highways near Devils Lake are being raised, and some local roads have been closed because of flooding. In response to the flooding, the Devils Lake Basin Interagency Task Force, comprised of many State and Federal agencies, was formed in 1995 to find and propose intermediate (5 years or less) solutions to reduce the effects of high lake levels. In addition to various planning studies being conducted by Federal agencies, the North Dakota State Water Commission has implemented a project to store water on small tracts of land and in the chain of lakes (Sweetwater Lake, Morrison Lake, Dry Lake, Mikes Lake, Chain Lake, Lake Alice, and Lake Irvine). Most of the planning studies include options to store water in the Devils Lake Basin and to provide an outlet to the Sheyenne River via Devils Lake or the Stump Lakes. If an outlet is constructed, water-quantity and -quality issues will be considered in designing the operating plan. Therefore, current and accurate hydrologic information is needed to assess the viability of the various options to lower the level of Devils Lake.
Greater-than-normal precipitation during the summer of 1993 affected the hydrologic response and surface-water quality in the Devils Lake Basin. Large areas in the basin were flooded as a result of the precipitation, and water from these areas drained slowly through the chain of lakes into Devils Lake. This report summarizes the results of surface-water quantity and quality monitoring designed to document the effects of flooding in the Devils Lake Basin. Specific objectives are (1) to document the quantity and quality of streamflow in the Devils Lake Basin immediately before, during, and after the 1993 flood and (2) to document the hydrologic and chemical changes in the upstream chain of lakes and in Devils Lake during April through October 1993. Precipitation during June through August ranged from about 17 inches in the Mauvais Coulee subbasin to about 21.4 inches in the Edmore Coulee subbasin. Streamflow measured for Edmore Coulee Tributary indicated that 12.2 inches of runoff occurred during April through October 1993. This is one of the greatest runoffs in North Dakota for which records are available. During April through September, the cumulative volume of inflow to the chain of lakes was about 8 percent of the cumulative volume of rainfall and the measured cumulative volume of outflow from the chain of lakes was about 7 percent of the cumulative volume of rainfall. The cumulative volume of water stored in the chain of lakes increased from 6,350 acre-feet in April to 82,300 acre-feet in August and then decreased to 24,400 acre-feet in October. Devils Lake rose from 1,423.0 feet above sea level on June 10 to 1,427.0 feet above sea level on September 28, largely in response to direct precipitation on the lake. Nutrient concentrations for coulees that flow into the chain of lakes generally were at a maximum during the spring and a minimum during the late summer and fall. About 37 percent of the dissolved-solids load and about 43 percent of the total ammonia plus organic nitrogen load was attributed to Edmore Coulee Tributary. Between May and October, increases in the total ammonia plus organic nitrogen mass for the chain of lakes ranged from about 39 to 133 percent. Increases in the total phosphorus mass ranged from about 43 to 157 percent. Decreases in dissolved-solids concentrations from May to early August ranged from about 77 percent in Sixmile Bay to about 9 percent in Main Bay, Creel Bay, and East Devils Lake. Decreases in the dissolved-solids concentrations in Devils Lake and East Devils Lake may have been the result of dilution by direct precipitation. However, during the same period, dissolvedsolids concentrations increased about 6 percent in East Bay. Between May and October, the dissolved-solids mass for Devils Lake and East Devils Lake increased 500 million kilograms. Only about 25 percent of the increase can be attributed to streamflow. The total ammonia plus organic nitrogen mass for Devils Lake and East Devils Lake increased about 38 percent between May and October, and the total phosphorus mass increased about 79 percent.
Two approaches were used to estimate future lake-level probabilities for Devils Lake. The first approach is based on an annual lake-volume model, and the second approach is based on a statistical water mass-balance model that generates seasonal lake volumes on the basis of seasonal precipitation, evaporation, and inflow. Autoregressive moving average models were used to model the annual mean lake volume and the difference between the annual maximum lake volume and the annual mean lake volume. Residuals from both models were determined to be uncorrelated with zero mean and constant variance. However, a nonlinear relation between the residuals of the two models was included in the final annual lakevolume model. Because of high autocorrelation in the annual lake levels of Devils Lake, the annual lake-volume model was verified using annual lake-level changes. The annual lake-volume model closely reproduced the statistics of the recorded lake-level changes for 1901-93 except for the skewness coefficient. However, the model output is less skewed than the data indicate because of some unrealistically large lake-level declines. The statistical water mass-balance model requires as inputs seasonal precipitation, evaporation, and inflow data for Devils Lake. Analysis of annual precipitation, evaporation, and inflow data for 1950-93 revealed no significant trends or long-range dependence so the input time series were assumed to be stationary and short-range dependent. Normality transformations were used to approximately maintain the marginal probability distributions; and a multivariate, periodic autoregressive model was used to reproduce the correlation structure. Each of the coefficients in the model is significantly different from zero at the 5-percent significance level. Coefficients relating spring inflow from one year to spring and fall inflows from the previous year had the largest effect on the lake-level frequency analysis. Inclusion of parameter uncertainty in the model for generating precipitation, evaporation, and inflow indicates that the upper lake-level exceedance levels from the water mass-balance model are particularly sensitive to parameter uncertainty. The sensitivity in the upper exceedance levels was caused almost entirely by uncertainty in the fitted probability distributions of the quarterly inflows. A method was developed for using long-term streamflow data for the Red River of the North at Grand Forks to reduce the variance in the estimated mean. Comparison of the annual lake-volume model and the water mass-balance model indicates the upper exceedance levels of the water mass-balance model increase much more rapidly than those of the annual lake-volume model. As an example, for simulation year 5, the 99-percent exceedance for the lake level is 1,417.6 feet above sea level for the annual lake-volume model and 1,423.2 feet above sea level for the water mass-balance model. The rapid increase is caused largely by the record precipitation and inflow in the summer and fall of 1993. Because the water mass-balance model produces lake-level traces that closely match the hydrology of Devils Lake, the water mass-balance model is superior to the annual lake-volume model for computing exceedance levels for the 50-year planning horizon.