Search USGS⌕ Search

Geology topics

Glenn A. Hodgkins

Publications and source records attributed to Glenn A. Hodgkins.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
USGS2009

Framework for a U.S. Geological Survey hydrologic climate-response program in Maine

It is important to monitor hydrologic systems in the United States that could change dramatically over the short term as a result of climate change. Many ecological effects of climate change can be understood only if hydrologic data networks are in place. Because of its humid, temperate climate and its substantial annual snowpack, Maine’s seasonal water cycle is sensitive to air temperature changes (Hodgkins and others, 2003). Monitoring of relevant hydrologic data would provide important baseline information against which future climate change can be measured. A series of recent investigations by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has documented changes in several components of the water cycle, including earlier snowmelt runoff in Maine during the last 30 to 40 years (Hodgkins and others, 2003), earlier lake- and river-ice breakups (Hodgkins and others, 2002; Hodgkins and others, 2005), and a denser and thinner late-winter snowpack (Hodgkins and Dudley, 2006). Snowmelt runoff timing was measured as the date, each year, by which half of the total winter-spring streamflow passed a streamflow-gaging station. Historical snowmelt runoff timing for the Piscataquis River in central Maine is shown in figure 1 as an example. Results of climate projections input to hydrologic models indicate that hydrologic trends, such as earlier spring snowmelt runoff, are expected to continue into the future (Hayhoe and others, 2007). These trends could affect species at the southern edge of their range in Maine, such as Atlantic salmon and Canada lynx, and may also affect availability of water for human use. This fact sheet describes the framework of a hydrologic climate-response program that would improve understanding of the effects of future climate change in Maine.

Maine↗
USGS2009

Framework for a U.S. Geological Survey Hydrologic Climate-Response Program in Maine

This report presents a framework for a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) hydrologic climate-response program designed to provide early warning of changes in the seasonal water cycle of Maine. Climate-related hydrologic changes on Maine's rivers and lakes in the winter and spring during the last century are well documented, and several river and lake variables have been shown to be sensitive to air-temperature changes. Monitoring of relevant hydrologic data would provide important baseline information against which future climate change can be measured. The framework of the hydrologic climate-response program presented here consists of four major parts: (1) identifying homogeneous climate-response regions; (2) identifying hydrologic components and key variables of those components that would be included in a hydrologic climate-response data network - as an example, streamflow has been identified as a primary component, with a key variable of streamflow being winter-spring streamflow timing; the data network would be created by maintaining existing USGS data-collection stations and establishing new ones to fill data gaps; (3) regularly updating historical trends of hydrologic data network variables; and (4) establishing basins for process-based studies. Components proposed for inclusion in the hydrologic climate-response data network have at least one key variable for which substantial historical data are available. The proposed components are streamflow, lake ice, river ice, snowpack, and groundwater. The proposed key variables of each component have extensive historical data at multiple sites and are expected to be responsive to climate change in the next few decades. These variables are also important for human water use and (or) ecosystem function. Maine would be divided into seven climate-response regions that follow major river-basin boundaries (basins subdivided to hydrologic units with 8-digit codes or larger) and have relatively homogeneous climates. Key hydrologic variables within each climate-response region would be analyzed regularly to maintain up-to-date analyses of year-to-year variability, decadal variability, and longer term trends. Finally, one basin in each climate-response region would be identified for process-based hydrologic and ecological studies.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2008

Impacts of Low-Flow and Stream-Temperature Changes on Endangered Atlantic Salmon - Current Research

Recent climate studies in New England and the northeastern United States have shown evidence of physical changes over time, including trends toward earlier snowmelt runoff, decreasing river ice, and increasing spring water temperatures. A U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) study funded by the National Global Warming and Wildlife Science Center will be investigating changes in summer low streamflows and stream temperatures and the potential effects of those changes on endangered Atlantic salmon populations. The study also will evaluate management options that would be most likely to mitigate the effects of any changes in streamflow and temperature.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2008

Comparison of Observed and Predicted Abutment Scour at Selected Bridges in Maine

Maximum abutment-scour depths predicted with five different methods were compared to maximum abutment-scour depths observed at 100 abutments at 50 bridge sites in Maine with a median bridge age of 66 years. Prediction methods included the Froehlich/Hire method, the Sturm method, and the Maryland method published in Federal Highway Administration Hydraulic Engineering Circular 18 (HEC-18); the Melville method; and envelope curves. No correlation was found between scour calculated using any of the prediction methods and observed scour. Abutment scour observed in the field ranged from 0 to 6.8 feet, with an average observed scour of less than 1.0 foot. Fifteen of the 50 bridge sites had no observable scour. Equations frequently overpredicted scour by an order of magnitude and in some cases by two orders of magnitude. The equations also underpredicted scour 4 to 14 percent of the time.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2007

Estimated Magnitudes and Recurrence Intervals of Peak Flows on the Mousam and Little Ossipee Rivers for the Flood of April 2007 in Southern Maine

Large amounts of rain fell on southern Maine from the afternoon of April 15, 2007, to the afternoon of April 16, 2007, causing substantial damage to houses, roads, and culverts. This report provides an estimate of the peak flows on two rivers in southern Maine--the Mousam River and the Little Ossipee River--because of their severe flooding. The April 2007 estimated peak flow of 9,230 ft3/s at the Mousam River near West Kennebunk had a recurrence interval between 100 and 500 years; 95-percent confidence limits for this flow ranged from 25 years to greater than 500 years. The April 2007 estimated peak flow of 8,220 ft3/s at the Little Ossipee River near South Limington had a recurrence interval between 100 and 500 years; 95-percent confidence limits for this flow ranged from 50 years to greater than 500 years.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2007

Historical Changes in Precipitation and Streamflow in the U.S. Great Lakes Basin, 1915-2004

The total amount of water in the Great Lakes Basin is important in the long-term allocation of water to human use and to riparian and aquatic ecosystems. The water available during low-flow periods is particularly important because the short-term demands for the water can exceed the supply. Precipitation increased over the last 90 years in the U.S. Great Lakes Basin. Total annual precipitation increased by 4.5 inches from 1915 to 2004 (based on the average of 34 U.S. Historical Climatology Network stations), 3.5 inches from 1935 to 2004 (average of 34 stations), and 4.2 inches from 1955 to 2004 (average of 37 stations). Variability in precipitation from year to year was large, but there were numerous years with relatively low precipitation in the 1930s and 1960s and many years with relatively high precipitation after about 1970. Annual runoff increased over the last 50 years in the U.S. Great Lakes Basin. Mean annual runoff increased by 2.6 inches, based on the average of 43 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations from 1955 to 2004 on streams that were relatively free of human influences. Variability in runoff from year to year was large, but on average runoff was relatively low from 1955 to about 1970 and relatively high from about 1970 to 1995. Runoff increased at all stations in the basin except in and near the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, where relatively small runoff decreases occurred. Changes in annual runoff for the 16 stations with data from 1935 to 2004 were similar to the changes from 1955 to 2004. The mean annual 7-day low runoff (the lowest annual average of 7 consecutive days of runoff) increased from 1955 to 2004 by 0.048 cubic feet per second per square mile based on the average of 27 stations. Runoff in the U.S. Great Lakes Basin from 1955 to 2004 increased for all months except April. November through January and July precipitation and runoff increased by similar amounts. There were differences between precipitation and runoff changes for February, March, and April, which were likely due to lower ratios of snowfall to rain and earlier snowmelt runoff in recent years. Increases in precipitation were larger than increases in runoff for May, June, August, September, and October. Some of this difference could be due to the different locations of the precipitation and streamflow stations in the basin. Part of the difference may be explained by changes in evapotranspiration. Some of the few highly urbanized and highly regulated stations analyzed in this report had larger increases in annual 7-day low-runoff from 1955 to 2004 than any of the stations in the U.S. Great Lakes Basin that are on streams relatively free of human influences. This demonstrates the human influence over time on very low streamflows. Changes-even over periods as long as 90 years-can be part of longer cycles. Previous studies of Great Lakes Basin precipitation and St. Lawrence River streamflow, using data from the mid-1800s to the late-1900s, showed low precipitation and streamflow in the late 1800s and early 1900s relative to earlier and later periods.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2007

Comparison of peak-flow estimation methods for small drainage basins in Maine

Understanding the accuracy of commonly used methods for estimating peak streamflows is important because the designs of bridges, culverts, and other river structures are based on these flows. Different methods for estimating peak streamflows were analyzed for small drainage basins in Maine. For the smallest basins, with drainage areas of 0.2 to 1.0 square mile, nine peak streamflows from actual rainfall events at four crest-stage gaging stations were modeled by the Rational Method and the Natural Resource Conservation Service TR-20 method and compared to observed peak flows. The Rational Method had a root mean square error (RMSE) of -69.7 to 230 percent (which means that approximately two thirds of the modeled flows were within -69.7 to 230 percent of the observed flows). The TR-20 method had an RMSE of -98.0 to 5,010 percent. Both the Rational Method and TR-20 underestimated the observed flows in most cases. For small basins, with drainage areas of 1.0 to 10 square miles, modeled peak flows were compared to observed statistical peak flows with return periods of 2, 50, and 100 years for 17 streams in Maine and adjoining parts of New Hampshire. Peak flows were modeled by the Rational Method, the Natural Resources Conservation Service TR-20 method, U.S. Geological Survey regression equations, and the Probabilistic Rational Method. The regression equations were the most accurate method of computing peak flows in Maine for streams with drainage areas of 1.0 to 10 square miles with an RMSE of -34.3 to 52.2 percent for 50-year peak flows. The Probabilistic Rational Method was the next most accurate method (-38.5 to 62.6 percent). The Rational Method (-56.1 to 128 percent) and particularly the TR-20 method (-76.4 to 323 percent) had much larger errors. Both the TR-20 and regression methods had similar numbers of underpredictions and overpredictions. The Rational Method overpredicted most peak flows and the Probabilistic Rational Method tended to overpredict peak flows from the smaller (less than 5 square miles) drainage basins and underpredict peak flows from larger drainage basins. The results of this study are consistent with the most comprehensive analysis of observed and modeled peak streamflows in the United States, which analyzed statistical peak flows from 70 drainage basins in the Midwest and the Northwest.

Maine↗
USGS2005

Summer low flows in New England during the 20th Century

High springtime river flows came earlier by one to two weeks in large parts of northern New England during the 20th Century. In this study it was hypothesized that late spring/early summer recessional flows and late summer/early fall low flows could also be occurring earlier. This could result in a longer period of low flow recession and a decrease in the magnitude of low flows. To test this hypothesis, variations over time in the magnitude and timing of low flows were analyzed. To help understand the relation between low flows and climatic variables in New England, low flows were correlated with air temperatures and precipitation. Analysis of data from 23 rural, unregulated rivers across New England indicated little evidence of consistent changes in the timing or magnitude of late summer/early fall low flows during the 20th Century. The interannual variability in the timing and magnitude of the low flows in northern New England was explained much more by the interannual variability in precipitation than by the interannual variability of air temperatures. The highest correlation between the magnitude of the low flows and air temperatures was with May through November temperatures (r =−0.37, p = 0.0017), while the highest correlation with precipitation was with July through August precipitation (r = 0.67, p > 0.0001).

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗
USGS2005

Changes in streamflow timing in New England during the 20th century... from the National Streamflow Information Program

This Fact Sheet is one in a series that highlights information or recent research findings from the USGS National Streamflow Information Program (NSIP). The investigations and scientific results reported in this series require a nationally consistent streamgaging network with stable long-term monitoring sites and a rigorous program of data quality assurance, management, archiving, and synthesis. NSIP produces multi-purpose, unbiased surface water information that is readily accessible to all.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗
USGS2005

Trends in timing, magnitude, and duration of summer and fall/winter streamflows for unregulated coastal river basins in Maine during the 20th century

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Maine Atlantic Salmon Commission (ASC), began a study in 2003 to examine the timing, magnitude, and duration of summer (June through October) and fall/early winter (September through January) seasonal streamflows of unregulated coastal river basins in Maine and to correlate them to meteorological variables and winter/spring (January through May) seasonal streamflows. This study overlapped the summer seasonal window with the fall/early winter seasonal window to completely bracket the low-streamflow period during July, August, and September between periods of high streamflows in June and October. The ASC is concerned with the impacts of potentially changing meteorological and hydrologic conditions on Atlantic salmon survival. Because winter/spring high streamflows appear to have trended toward earlier dates over the 20th century in coastal Maine, it was hypothesized that the spring/summer recession to low streamflows could have a similar trend toward earlier, and possibly lower, longer lasting, late summer/early fall low streamflows during the 20th century. There were few statistically significant trends in the timing, magnitude, or duration of summer low streamflows for coastal river basins in Maine during the 20th century. The hypothesis that earlier winter/spring high streamflows may result in earlier or lower low streamflows is not supported by the data. No statistically significant trends in the magnitude of total runoff volume during the low-streamflow months of August and September were observed. The magnitude and timing of summer low streamflows correlated with the timing of fall/winter high streamflows and the amount of summer precipitation. The magnitude and timing of summer low streamflows did not correlate with the timing of spring snowmelt runoff. There were few correlations between the magnitude and timing of summer low streamflows and monthly mean surface air temperatures. There were few statistically significant trends in the timing or duration of fall/winter high streamflows for coastal river basins in Maine during the 20th century. The timing of the bulk of fall/winter high streamflows correlated with seasonal precipitation. Earlier fall/winter center-of-volume dates correlated with higher September and October precipitation. In general, little evidence was observed of trends in the magnitude of seasonal runoff volume during fall/winter. The magnitude of fall/winter high streamflows positively correlated with November and December precipitation amounts. There were few correlations between the magnitude and timing of fall/winter high streamflows and monthly mean surface air temperatures.

Maine↗
USGS2005

Changes in the magnitude of annual and monthly streamflows in New England, 1902-2002

Selected annual and monthly streamflow statistics for 27 streamflow-gaging stations in New England were computed and tested for changes over time. These 27 stations were considered to be free of substantial human influences such as regulation, diversion, and land use-changes and have an average of 71 years of record. The longest streamflow record extended from 1902 to 2002. March mean streamflows increased significantly over time (Mann-Kendall test, p < 0.1) at 14 streamflow-gaging stations in northern New England, primarily in northern or mountainous sections of Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont. March mean flows increased by 76 to 185 percent at the seven stations with the longest continuous records in areas of New England with the largest seasonal snowpack depths. These streamflow-gaging stations had continuous records from the late 1920's and the early 1930s through 2002. May mean streamflows significantly decreased at 10 stations in northern or mountainous sections of Maine and New Hampshire. May mean flows decreased by 9 to 46 percent at the seven stations with the longest continuous records. Despite the fact that March percentage increases were much larger than May percentage decreases, March streamflow increases (in cubic feet per second) were smaller than May decreases, except at one streamflow-gaging station. Increased March and April air temperatures over time may have caused earlier snowmelt and thus increased streamflows in March and decreased streamflows in May. There were no significant changes over time in annual mean streamflows at the 27 stations; however, there were significant increases over time in various annual percentile streamflows (minimum, 25th percentile, median, 75th percentile, or maximum flows) at 22 of the stations. This indicates that flows increased over time at many streams in New England, but the increase was not enough to have caused significant changes in annual mean flows. October mean streamflows increased significantly at five stations in western New England. December minimum streamflows increased significantly at 13 stations in northern and southern New England.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗
USGS2003

Historical Dates of Ice-Affected Flows for 18 Rivers in New England

Historical dates of ice-affected flows for 18 rivers in New England were compiled and are presented in this report. The length of this record for the rivers ranges from 48 to 71 years, with an average of 62 years. The minimum number of days of ice-affected flow in a water year (October 1 to September 30) ranged from zero on three rivers in south-coastal Maine and coastal New Hampshire to 110 on the Allagash River in northern Maine. The maximum number of days of ice-affected flow in a water year ranged from 106 on the Royal River in south-coastal Maine to 171 on the Allagash River in northern Maine. Six streamflow-< gaging stations in Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont had their latest days of ice-affected flow in the spring of 1939.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2003

Estimating the magnitude of peak flows for streams in Kentucky for selected recurrence intervals

This report gives estimates of, and presents techniques for estimating, the magnitude of peak flows for streams in Kentucky for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years. A flowchart in this report guides the user to the appropriate estimates and (or) estimating techniques for a site on a specific stream. Estimates of peak flows are given for 222 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in Kentucky. In the development of the peak-flow estimates at gaging stations, a new generalized skew coefficient was calculated for the State. This single statewide value of 0.011 (with a standard error of prediction of 0.520) is more appropriate for Kentucky than the national skew isoline map in Bulletin 17B of the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data. Regression equations are presented for estimating the peak flows on ungaged, unregulated streams in rural drainage basins. The equations were developed by use of generalized-least-squares regression procedures at 187 U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations in Kentucky and 51 stations in surrounding States. Kentucky was divided into seven flood regions. Total drainage area is used in the final regression equations as the sole explanatory variable, except in Regions 1 and 4 where main-channel slope also was used. The smallest average standard errors of prediction were in Region 3 (from -13.1 to +15.0 percent) and the largest average standard errors of prediction were in Region 5 (from -37.6 to +60.3 percent). One section of this report describes techniques for estimating peak flows for ungaged sites on gaged, unregulated streams in rural drainage basins. Another section references two previous U.S. Geological Survey reports for peak-flow estimates on ungaged, unregulated, urban streams. Estimating peak flows at ungaged sites on regulated streams is beyond the scope of this report, because peak flows on regulated streams are dependent upon variable human activities.

Kentucky↗