Geology topics
Publications and source records attributed to George M. Durner.
Since the 13 th Working Meeting of the Polar Bear Specialist Group the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has seen the completion of many research projects and the start of many new ones. Much has been accomplished and yet we have new challenges awaiting us. This report summarises our focal questions and progress in those areas.
The greatest promise of radiotelemetry always has been a better understanding of animal movements. Telemetry has helped us know when animals are active, how active they are, how far and how fast they move, the geographic areas they occupy, and whether individuals vary in these traits. Unfortunately, the inability to estimate the error in animals utilization distributions (UDs), has prevented probabilistic linkage of movements data, which are always retrospective, with future management actions. We used the example of the harvested population of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) in the Southern Beaufort Sea to illustrate a method that provides that linkage. We employed a 2-dimensional Gaussian kernel density estimator to smooth and scale frequencies of polar bear radio locations within cells of a grid overlying our study area. True 2-dimensional smoothing allowed us to create accurate descriptions of the UDs of individuals and groups of bears. We used a new method of clustering, based upon the relative use collared bears made of each cell in our grid, to assign individual animals to populations. We applied the fast Fourier transform to make bootstrapped estimates of the error in UDs computationally feasible. Clustering and kernel smoothing identified 3 populations of polar bears in the region between Wrangel Island, Russia, and Banks Island, Canada. The relative probability of occurrence of animals from each population varied significantly among grid cells distributed across the study area. We displayed occurrence probabilities as contour maps wherein each contour line corresponded with a change in relative probability. Only at the edges of our study area and in some offshore regions were bootstrapped estimates of error in occurrence probabilities too high to allow prediction. Error estimates, which also were displayed as contours, allowed us to show that occurrence probabilities did not vary by season. Near Barrow, Alaska, 50% of bears observed are predicted to be from the Chukchi Sea population and 50% from the Southern Beaufort Sea population. At Tuktoyaktuk, Northwest Territories, Canada, 50% are from the Southern Beaufort Sea and 50% from the Northern Beaufort Sea population. The methods described here will aid managers of all wildlife that can be studied by telemetry to allocate harvests and other human perturbations to the appropriate populations, make risk assessments, and predict impacts of human activities. They will aid researchers by providing the refined descriptions of study populations that are necessary for population estimation and other investigative tasks. Arctic, Beaufort Sea, boundaries, clustering, Fourier transform, kernel, management, polar bears, population delineation, radiotelemetry, satellite, smoothing, Ursus maritimus
Polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) depend on ice-covered seas to satisfy life history requirements. Modern threats to polar bears include oil spills in the marine environment and changes in ice composition resulting from climate change. Managers need practical models that explain the distribution of bears in order to assess the impacts of these threats. We explored the use of discrete choice models to describe habitat selection by female polar bears in the Beaufort Sea. Using stepwise procedures we generated resource selection models of habitat use. Sea ice characteristics and ocean depths at known polar bear locations were compared to the same features at randomly selected locations. Models generated for each of four seasons confirmed complexities of habitat use by polar bears and their response to numerous factors. Bears preferred shallow water areas where different ice types intersected. Variation among seasons was reflected mainly in differential selection of total ice concentration, ice stages, floe sizes, and their interactions. Distance to the nearest ice interface was a significant term in models for three seasons. Water depth was selected as a significant term in all seasons, possibly reflecting higher productivity in shallow water areas. Preliminary tests indicate seasonal models can predict polar bear distribution based on prior sea ice data.
Polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) give birth to and nurture their young in dens of ice and snow. During 1999-2001, we measured the structure of 22 dens on the coastal plain of northern Alaska after polar bear families had evacuated their dens in the spring. During the summers of 2001 and 2002, we revisited the sites of 42 maternal and autumn exploratory dens and recorded characteristics of the under-snow habitat. The structure of polar bear snow dens was highly variable. Most were simple chambers with a single entrance/egress tunnel. Others had multiple chambers and additional tunnels. Thickness of snow above and below dens was highly variable, but most dens were overlain by less than 1 m of snow. Dens were located on, or associated with, pronounced landscape features (primarily coastal and river banks, but also a lake shore and an abandoned oil field gravel pad) that are readily distinguished from the surrounding terrain in summer and catch snow in early winter. Although easily identified, den landforms in northern Alaska were more subtle than den habitats in many other parts of the Arctic. The structure of polar bear dens in Alaska was strikingly similar to that of dens elsewhere and has remained largely unchanged in northern Alaska for more than 25 years. Knowledge of den structure and site characteristics will allow resource managers to identify habitats with the greatest probability of holding dens. This information may assist resource managers in preventing negative impacts of mineral exploration and extraction on polar bears.
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Polar bears give birth in snow dens in mid winter, and remain in dens until early spring. Survival and development of neonates is dependent on the stable environment within the maternal den. Petroleum related activities currently span approximately 200 km of the Alaskan Beaufort Sea coastal area. New and proposed developments are expected to dramatically expand the area influenced by petroleum activities. These activities are a potential threat to polar bears, especially as they might disturb denning females. In order to help manage and mitigate potential disruptions of polar bear denning, we tested whether we could detect heat, rising through the roofs of maternal dens, with forward-looking infrared (FLIR) viewing devices. We tested detectability of dens by flying transects, over habitats known to hold dens, with FLIR equipped aircraft. We recorded flight and weather conditions at each observation and tallied whether or not the den was detected.
Polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) depend on ice-covered seas to satisfy life history requirements. Modern threats to polar bears include oil spills in the marine environment and changes in ice composition resulting from climate change. Managers need practical models that explain the distribution of bears in order to assess the impacts of these threats. We used stepwise procedures to create resource selection models of habitat use for radio-collared female polar bears in the Beaufort Sea. Sea ice characteristics and ocean depths at known polar bear locations were compared to the same features at randomly selected locations. Models generated for each of four seasons confirmed complexities of habitat use by polar bears and their response to numerous factors. Bears preferred shallow water areas where ice concentrations were > 80 % and different ice types intersected. Variation among seasons was reflected mainly in differential selection of ice stages, floe sizes, and their interactions. Water depth, total ice concentration and distance to the nearest interface between different ice types were significant terms in models for most seasons. Variation in ice stage and form also appeared in three models, and several interaction effects were identified. Habitat selection by polar bears is likely related to prey abundance and availability. Use of habitats in shallow water possibly reflects higher productivity in those areas. Habitat use in close proximity to ice edges is probably related to greater access of prey in those habitats.
Polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) give birth in dens of ice and snow to protect their altricial young. During the snow-free season, we visited 25 den sites located previously by radiotelemetry and characterized the den site physiognomy. Seven dens occurred in habitats with minimal relief. Eighteen dens (72%) were in coastal and river banks. These "banks" were identifiable on aerial photographs. We then searched high-resolution aerial photographs (n=3000) for habitats similar to those of the 18 dens. On aerial photos, we mapped 1782 km of bank habitats suitable for denning. Bank habitats comprised 0.18% of our study area between the Colville River and the Tamayariak River in northern Alaska. The final map, which correctly identified 88% of bank denning habitat in this region, will help minimize the potential for disruptions of maternal dens by winter petroleum exploration activities.
Satellite radiotelemetry has provided great insights into the movements and behaviors of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ). The diameter of the neck of adult male polar bears exceeds that of their head, however, and radio collars slip off. This has limited collection of movement information to that from radio-collared females. To overcome this difficulty and gather information about their movements, we surgically implanted satellite radio transmitters into 7 male polar bears during 1996 and 1997. We compared movements of implanted males with those of 104 adult females radio-collared between 1985 and 1995. Transmitters were implanted under the skin on the midline of the top of the neck and were equipped with percutaneous antennae. Implanted transmitters operated for up to 161 days providing 3217 satellite relocations. While transmitting, radios implanted in males provided a larger proportion of the highest quality category of position fixes than was obtained from radio-collared females. However, all implanted radios ceased transmitting before reaching their projected life-span. The abrupt termination of transmission from implanted radios suggested mechanical rather than electronic failure. Mean rates of short-term movement for males (1.18 km/h) were lower than for solitary females, females with cubs, and females with yearlings (1.70, 1.84, and 1.95 km/h, respectively). Net geographic movements from the beginning to the end of each month were comparable for males (mean = 135 km) and females (mean = 114, 152, and 168 km). Mean azimuths of these net movements also appeared to be similar. Monthly activity-area sizes for males (mean = 8541 km 2 ) were comparable to those for females (mean = 3698, 9397, and 10 585 km 2 ) during the time period of comparison. In contrast to the other movement measures, males traveled longer mean distances (387 km) each month than did females (217, 289, and 302 km). Movements of males, it appears, were more directed than those of females, but males confined their travels to similar-sized areas.
We fitted 173 satellite radio collars (platform transmitter terminals) to 121 adult female polar bears in the Beaufort Sea and relocated the bears 44 736 times between 1985 and 1995. We regularly resighted many instrumented bears so that we could ascertain whether changes in movements or distribution were related to reproductive status. Mean short-term movement rates were less than 2 km/h for all classes of bears. Maximum movement rates occurred in winter and early summer. In the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS), net geographic movements from the beginning to the end of each month were smaller for females with cubs of the year than for solitary females, and larger in November than in April, May, or July. In May, June, July, and August, radio-collared bears in the SBS moved north. They moved south in October. In the northern Beaufort Sea (NBS), bears moved north in June and south in March and September. Total annual movements ranged from 1406 to 6203 km. Mean total distances moved each month ranged from 79 to 420 km. Total monthly movements by SBS bears were largest in early winter and smallest in early spring. In the NBS, movements were largest in summer and smallest in winter. In the SBS, females with cubs moved less each month than other females. Annual activity areas ranged from 7264 to 596 800 km 2 . Monthly activity areas ranged from 88 to 9760 km 2 . Seasonal fidelity to activity areas of bears captured in all parts of the Beaufort Sea was strongest in summer and weakest in spring.
The polar bear is the apical predator and universal symbol of the Arctic. They occur throughout the Arctic marine environment wherever sea ice is prevalent. In the southern Beaufort Sea, polar bears are most common within the area of the outer continental shelf, where the hunt for seals along persistent leads and openings in the ice. Polar bears are a significant cultural and subsistence component of the lifestyles of indigenous people. They may also be one of the most important indicators of the health of the Arctic marine environment. Polar bears have a late age of maturation, a long inter0brth period, and small liter sizes. These life history features make polar bear populations susceptible to natural and human perturbations. Petroleum exploration and extraction have been in progress along the coast of northern Alaska for more than 25 years. Until recently, most activity has taken place on the mainland or at sites connected to the shore by a causeway. In 1999, BP Exploration-Alaska began constructing the first artificial production island designed to transport oil through sub-seafloor pipelines. Other similar projects have been proposed to begin in the next several years. The proximity of oil exploration and development to principal polar bear habitats raises concerns, and with the advent of true off-shore development projects, these concerns are compounded. Contact with oil and other industrial chemicals by polar bears, through grooming, consumption of tainted food, or direct consumption of chemicals, may be lethal. The active ice where polar bears hunt is also where spilled oil may be expected to concentrate during spring break-up and autumn freeze-up. Because of this, we could expect that an oil spill in the waters and ice of the continental shelf would have profound effects on polar bears. Assessments of the effects of spills, however, have not been done. This report described a promising method for estimating the effects of oil spills on polar bears in the Arctic marine environment. It uses enough real data to illuminate necessary calculations and illustrate the value of the methods. The results and conclusions presented here are only examples of possible scenarios resulting from a new estimation method. Final assessment of the potential impacts to polar bears of an oil spill remains a work in progress.
There is concern that caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ) may avoid roads and facilities (i.e., infrastructure) in the Prudhoe Bay oil field (PBOF) in northern Alaska, and that this avoidance can have negative effects on the animals. We quantified the relationship between caribou distribution and PBOF infrastructure during the post-calving period (mid-June to mid-August) with aerial surveys from 1990 to 1995. We conducted four to eight surveys per year with complete coverage of the PBOF. We identified active oil field infrastructure and used a geographic information system (GIS) to construct ten 1 km wide concentric intervals surrounding the infrastructure. We tested whether caribou distribution is related to distance from infrastructure with a chi-squared habitat utilization-availability analysis and log-linear regression. We considered bulls, calves, and total caribou of all sex/age classes separately. The habitat utilization-availability analysis indicated there was no consistent trend of attraction to or avoidance of infrastructure. Caribou frequently were more abundant than expected in the intervals close to infrastructure, and this trend was more pronounced for bulls and for total caribou of all sex/age classes than for calves. Log-linear regression (with Poisson error structure) of numbers of caribou and distance from infrastructure were also done, with and without combining data into the 1 km distance intervals. The analysis without intervals revealed no relationship between caribou distribution and distance from oil field infrastructure, or between caribou distribution and Julian date, year, or distance from the Beaufort Sea coast. The log-linear regression with caribou combined into distance intervals showed the density of bulls and total caribou of all sex/age classes declined with distance from infrastructure. Our results indicate that during the post-calving period: 1) caribou distribution is largely unrelated to distance from infrastructure; 2) caribou regularly use habitats in the PBOF; 3) caribou often occur close to infrastructure; and 4) caribou do not appear to avoid oil field infrastructure.
Models developed from morphometric parameters are useful for estimating body mass (M) of captured wild ursids. The accuracy of those models, however, may depend on sex, season, and geographic location of the population. We tested the suitability of reported models to predict mass of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) captured in northern Alaska, but found that models developed for other populations performed poorly. Hence, we derived new models from field measurements of axillary girth (AG), straight-line body length (SLBL), condylobasal length (CL), and zygomatic width (ZW). Our equations accurately predicted body mass for polar bears captured during spring and autumn. The equation for spring-captured polar bears was M = 0.000078 * AG 1.6026 * SLBL 1.3579 (R 2 =0.97), while the equation for autumn-captured polar bears was M = 0.000250 * AG 1.4967 * SLBL 1.2468 (R 2 =0.97). Our results suggest that investigators should verify the accuracy of reported equations when applied to each situation and if necessary, develop models specific for the population in question.
Using satellite telemetry, we monitored the movements of an adult female polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) as she traveled from the Alaskan Beaufort Sea coast to northern Greenland. She is the first polar bear known to depart the Beaufort Sea region for an extended period, and the first polar bear known to move between Alaska and Greenland. This bear traveled for four months across the polar basin and came within 2 degrees of the North Pole. During the first year following her capture, she traveled 5256 km. Evidence to suggest her use of maternity dens in northern Alaska and in northern Greenland demonstrates the potential for genetic exchange between two widely separate populations of polar bears. The long life spans of polar bears and the rarity of their long-range movements means the significance of interpopulation movement can be assessed after long-term monitoring of individuals.
Polar bears are hunted throughout most of their range. In addition to hunting, polar bears of the Beaufort Sea region are exposed to mineral and hydrocarbon extraction and related human activities such as shipping, road building, and seismic testing. As human populations increase and demands for polar bears and other arctic resources escalate, reliable estimates of survivorship of polar bears are needed to predict and manage the impacts of those activities. We used the Kaplan-Meier model to estimate annual survival (with 95% confidence intervals) for radio-collared female polar bears and their dependent young that were followed during a 12-year study in the Alaskan Beaufort Sea. Survival of adult female polar bears was higher than had been previously thought: S = 0.969 (range 0.952-0.983). If human-caused mortalities were deleted, the computed survival rate was 0.996 (0.990-1.002). Survival of young from den exit to weaning was 0.676 (0.634-0.701). Survival during the second year of life, 0.860 (0.751-0.903), was substantially higher than during the first year, 0.651 (0.610-0.675). Shooting by local hunters accounted for 85% of the documented deaths of adult female polar bears. Conversely, 90% of documented losses of young were independent of litter size (P = 0.36), indicating that parental investment in single cubs was not different from investment in litters of two or more. Precise estimates of the survival of independent juveniles and adult males still need to be developed.
Current research is designed to determine the status of the polar bear population in the Beaufort Sea and adjacent areas. One goal is to determine how polar bears are distributed relative to each other and habitat features, and to define population boundaries. Another goal is to determine the population size and trend, and assess how present and future management issues may affect thetrend. Specific objectives of the research include the need to: Determine the movements of individuals comprising the polar bear population that uses the Beaufort Sea. Determine hoe movements vary by season and by year, and whether they can be modeled so as to allow meaningful census and mitigation efforts. Improve estimates of size of the Beaufort Sea population relative to the capacity of the environment to sustain it. Determine factors regulating the rate of recruitment of new bears into the population. Determine the distribution of polar bear dens in northern Alaska and whether denning habitats may be a limiting factor on reproductive success. Determine the timing of den entrance and emergence. Determine the relative success rates (thus the reproductive significance) of dens in various locations. This report summaries the progress towards those objectives that has been made since the last meeting of the PBSG in 1988.