Geology topics
George G. Esslinger
Publications and source records attributed to George G. Esslinger.
The dynamics of sea otter prey selection under population growth and expansion
Sea otters ( Enhydra lutris ) were extirpated from much of their range in the North Pacific by the early 1900s but have made a remarkable recovery in Southeast Alaska. Sea otter populations have been particularly successful in Glacier Bay, Alaska, a protected tidewater glacier fjord with a diverse and productive nearshore habitat. Collection of sea otter foraging observations in Glacier Bay began in 1993, along with high-resolution aerial surveys that provide estimates of sea otter abundance and distribution. We integrated these two data sources to investigate how sea otter diet changed in space and time as sea otters established and spread across Glacier Bay. Specifically, we developed a multilevel Bayesian model to capture how sea otter diet at a location (the number, type, and size of prey collected) changed as a function of local cumulative otter abundance and the year in which the location was first occupied. This framework enabled us to estimate the sequence of sea otter prey selection and switching as prey populations responded to sea otter foraging pressure. We found that local sea otter diet changed substantially as the population established, shifting away from large urchins, crabs, and clams to Modiolus mussels and small urchins, and lastly to small clams and Mytilus mussels. We also found that sea otter diet at newly occupied sites changed as otters spread over the main channel and into the arms of Glacier Bay. Further, by 2019, sea otters across the bay were primarily foraging on small prey, regardless of the local occupancy history. The absence of a spatial gradient in the size of prey captured late in the study suggests that feedbacks between the top-down effects of sea otter foraging, sea otter dispersal processes, and local variation in habitat productivity may have homogenized the size structure of available prey across Glacier Bay.
Understanding sea otter population change in southeast Alaska
Introduction The Southeast Alaska (SE) stock of northern sea otters ( Enhydra lutris kenyoni ) ranges from Cape Yakataga on the north to the Dixon Entrance on the south. During the maritime fur trade, sea otters were commercially harvested to near extinction in SE for their pelts and were presumed unlikely to naturally repopulate the region.
Informing management of recovering predators and their prey with ecological diffusion models
The reintroduction and recovery of predators can be ecologically beneficial as well as socially and economically controversial. However, the growth and expansion of predator populations, and thus their ecological, social, and economic impacts, are not static but rather they vary in space and time. We propose a spatiotemporal statistical modeling framework based on ecological diffusion to better inform the ecology and management of recovering predators and their prey. We demonstrate its utility by applying it to a recovering sea otter ( Enhydra lutris ) population in Southeast Alaska, where sea otters were reintroduced in the late 1960s and have exhibited unprecedented population growth. Estimated parameters yield inferences about movement and population ecology, and our approach provides useful derived quantities, such as local abundance and carrying capacity as well as a quantity we term the equilibrium differential. We used our model to examine how density dependence and carrying capacity of sea otters vary spatially across a region. The diffusion modeling approach we present can be generalized for use in other instances of (re)colonization across taxa to inform management and conservation efforts.
Revealing the extent of sea otter impacts on bivalve prey through multi-trophic monitoring and mechanistic models
Sea otters are apex predators that can exert considerable influence over the nearshore communities they occupy. Since facing near extinction in the early 1900s, sea otters are making a remarkable recovery in Southeast Alaska, particularly in Glacier Bay, the largest protected tidewater glacier fjord in the world. The expansion of sea otters across Glacier Bay offers both a challenge to monitoring and stewardship and an unprecedented opportunity to study the top-down effect of a novel apex predator across a diverse and productive ecosystem. Our goal was to integrate monitoring data across trophic levels, space, and time to quantify and map the predator–prey interaction between sea otters and butter clams Saxidomus gigantea , one of the dominant large bivalves in Glacier Bay and a favoured prey of sea otters. We developed a spatially-referenced mechanistic differential equation model of butter clam dynamics that combined both environmental drivers of local population growth and estimates of otter abundance from aerial survey data. We embedded this model in a Bayesian statistical framework and fit it to clam survey data from 43 intertidal and subtidal sites across Glacier Bay. Prior to substantial sea otter expansion, we found that butter clam density was structured by an environmental gradient driven by distance from glacier (represented by latitude) and a quadratic effect of current speed. Estimates of sea otter attack rate revealed spatial heterogeneity in sea otter impacts and a negative relationship with local shoreline complexity. Sea otter exploitation of productive butter clam habitat substantially reduced the abundance and altered the distribution of butter clams across Glacier Bay, with potential cascading consequences for nearshore community structure and function. Spatial variation in estimated sea otter predation processes further suggests that community context and local environmental conditions mediate the top-down influence of sea otters on a given prey. Overall, our framework provides high-resolution insights about the interaction among components of this food web and could be applied to a variety of other systems involving invasive species, epidemiology or migration.
Northern Sea Otter (Enhydra lutris kenyoni) population abundance and distribution across the southeast Alaska stock, summer 2022
In the summer of 2022, the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service and partners successfully completed the first single-year, aerial photo survey of sea otters across the entire Southeast stock of northern sea otters. This document presents the latest findings from the 2022 Southeast Alaska Sea Otter Survey, providing up-to-date information regarding occupancy, abundance and carrying capacity. We collected two independent data streams of sea otter observations during the survey using novel image sensor technologies for marine wildlife surveys and recently developed statistical methods. We calculated an abundance estimate of 22,359 (95% Bayesian credible interval: 19,595, 25,290, CV = 0.064) sea otters. Based on the these results, the population size of the Southeast stock of northern sea otters is still increasing and below the estimated carrying capacity for the region of 48,083 (95% Bayesian credible interval: 40,575, 58,570) sea otters. Results from this report include the first updated abundance estimates for the Southeast stock of sea otters in 10 years, which will help inform stakeholders from across the region and addresses the top priority identified by the 2019 Southeast Sea Otter Stakeholder Working Group.
Nearshore ecosystems in the Gulf of Alaska
Nearshore ecosystem monitoring in western Prince William Sound, Kenai Fjords National Park, Kachemak Bay, and Katmai National Park and Preserve has been conducted as a single Nearshore Component of the Gulf Watch Alaska program over the past five years (2017-2021). This program builds on the previous five years and continues, in many cases, decades of preceding research and monitoring. During the 2017-2021 period of Gulf Watch Alaska, we successfully collected data on more than 200 nearshore metrics across all regions. These metrics were explicitly selected because of their value as trophically-connected features that offer insights into causes of changes through bottom-up and top-down forces within the nearshore food web. During these past 5 years, this study design has been applied to documenting and understanding several perturbations, including the Pacific Marine Heatwave and loss of sea stars due to sea star wasting. Continued monitoring will allow for a better understanding of change in nearshore ecosystems across the Gulf of Alaska and the status of spill injured resources, including greater perspective on oil spill effects and recovery relative to other types of perturbations. This information will be critical for anticipating and responding to ongoing and future changes in the region, as well as providing data for understanding global-scale variation in marine environments.
Where land and sea meet: Brown bears and sea otters
In Katmai National Park, Alaska, USA, we have seen changes in the number of brown bears and sea otters. The number of animals of a species a habitat can support is called carrying capacity. Even though bears live on land and sea otters live in the ocean, these two mammals share coastal habitats. Bears eat salmon, other fish, plants, clams, and beached whales. Sea otters feed on clams and other marine invertebrates. All these foods are influenced by the ocean. Recently, we have seen fewer bears but more sea otters! What changed? Many things, but several observations point to the ocean. There are fewer salmon, whales, and clams, so bears rely more on plants for food. Fewer clams mean sea otters must work harder to find food. Our studies are helping us to understand how and why carrying capacity for a given species may change over time.
Abundance and distribution of sea otters (Enhydra lutris) in the southcentral Alaska stock, 2014, 2017, and 2019
The Southcentral Alaska (SCAK) sea otter ( Enhydra lutris ) stock is the northernmost stock of sea otters, a keystone predator known for structuring nearshore marine ecosystems. We conducted aerial surveys within the range of the SCAK sea otter stock to provide recent estimates of sea otter abundance and distribution. We defined three survey regions: (1) Eastern Cook Inlet (2017), (2) Outer Kenai Peninsula (2019), and (3) Prince William Sound (2014 and 2017). Combined, the three regional estimates yielded an overall abundance estimate of 21,617 sea otters (standard error [SE] = 2,190) with an average density of 1.96 sea otters per square kilometer (km 2 ; SE = 0.55). Sea otters were distributed unevenly across the survey regions and densities varied from 0.52 sea otters/km 2 (SE = 0.18) in the deep rock-walled glacial fjords along parts of the Outer Kenai Peninsula to nearly 20 sea otters/km 2 (SE = 6.70) in shallow soft-bottom communities such as those in Orca Inlet and Kachemak Bay. These survey results represent the best available contemporary information concerning the distribution, density, and abundance of sea otters across the range of the SCAK stock. Survey data files have been standardized and formatted in data releases associated with this report so that they can be queried and displayed with standard geographic information system and database management software. In addition to providing contemporary information on sea otter populations, this report details how an observer-based aerial survey method has been applied in Alaska over 2 decades.
Sea otter population collapse in southwest Alaska: Assessing ecological covariates, consequences, and causal factors
Sea otter ( Enhydra lutris ) populations in southwest Alaska declined substantially between about 1990 and the most recent set of surveys in 2015. Here we report changes in the distribution and abundance of sea otters, and covarying patterns in reproduction, mortality, body size and condition, diet and foraging behavior, food availability, health profiles, and exposure to environmental contaminants over this 25-yr period. The population decline, which resulted in densities on the order of 5% of environmental carrying capacity, ranged from Attu Island in the west to about Castle Cape (on the south side of the Alaska Peninsula) in the east. Remaining sea otters moved closer to shore and into shallow, protected habitats. Reproductive rates appeared unchanged with the decline. Although the demographic cause of the decline was clearly elevated mortality, stranded carcasses were rare or absent. The net rate of energy gain by foraging sea otters, body length and condition, and prey biomass density, all increased after the decline and varied inversely with sea otter population density beyond the area of decline. Sea otters within the area of decline showed no increases in health anomalies, disease, contaminant exposure, or abnormal gene transcription patterns as compared to animals outside the area of decline. These collective findings are inconsistent with nutritional limitation, disease, or environmental contaminants, and consistent with predation (or possibly some other density-independent factor) as the reason for the sea otter population decline. Our approach and analyses provide a broad conceptual template for thinking about and assessing the causes of wildlife population declines.
Diffusion modeling reveals effects of multiple release sites and human activity on a recolonizing apex predator
Background Reintroducing predators is a promising conservation tool to help remedy human-caused ecosystem changes. However, the growth and spread of a reintroduced population is a spatiotemporal process that is driven by a suite of factors, such as habitat change, human activity, and prey availability. Sea otters ( Enhydra lutris ) are apex predators of nearshore marine ecosystems that had declined nearly to extinction across much of their range by the early 20th century. In Southeast Alaska, which is comprised of a diverse matrix of nearshore habitat and managed areas, reintroduction of 413 individuals in the late 1960s initiated the growth and spread of a population that now exceeds 25,000. Methods Periodic aerial surveys in the region provide a time series of spatially-explicit data to investigate factors influencing this successful and ongoing recovery. We integrated an ecological diffusion model that accounted for spatially-variable motility and density-dependent population growth, as well as multiple population epicenters, into a Bayesian hierarchical framework to help understand the factors influencing the success of this recovery. Results Our results indicated that sea otters exhibited higher residence time as well as greater equilibrium abundance in Glacier Bay, a protected area, and in areas where there is limited or no commercial fishing. Asymptotic spread rates suggested sea otters colonized Southeast Alaska at rates of 1–8 km/yr with lower rates occurring in areas correlated with higher residence time, which primarily included areas near shore and closed to commercial fishing. Further, we found that the intrinsic growth rate of sea otters may be higher than previous estimates suggested. Conclusions This study shows how predator recolonization can occur from multiple population epicenters. Additionally, our results suggest spatial heterogeneity in the physical environment as well as human activity and management can influence recolonization processes, both in terms of movement (or motility) and density dependence.
Trends and carrying capacity of sea otters in Southeast Alaska
Sea otter populations in Southeast Alaska (SEAK) have increased dramatically from fewer than 500 translocated animals in the late 1960s. The recovery of sea otters to ecosystems from which they had been absent has affected coastal food webs, including commercially important fisheries, and thus information on expected growth and equilibrium abundances can help inform resource management. We compile available survey data for SEAK and fit a Bayesian state-space model to estimate past trends and current abundance. Our model improves upon previous analyses by partitioning and quantifying sources of estimation error, accounting for over-dispersion of aerial count data, and providing realistic measurements of uncertainty around point estimates of abundance at multiple spatial scales. We also provide the first estimates of carrying capacity (K) for SEAK, at both regional and sub-regional scales, and analyze growth rates, current population status and expected future trends. At the regional scale, the population increased from 13,221 otters in 2003 (95% credible interval 9,990 – 16,828) to 25,584 otters in 2011 (CI95 18,739 – 33,163). The average annual growth rate in southern SEAK (7.8%) was higher than northern SEAK (2.7%); however, growth varied at the sub-regional scale and there was a negative relationship between growth rates and the number of years sea otters were present in an area. Local populations vary in terms of current densities and expected future growth: the mean estimated density at K was 4.2 (1.58) sea otters per km2 of habitat (defined as the sub-tidal benthos between 0-40m depth) and current densities correspond on average to 50% of projected equilibrium values (range = 1% to 97%) with the earliest-colonized sub-regions tending to be closer to K. Assuming a similar range of equilibrium densities for currently un-occupied habitats in SEAK, the projected value of K for all of SEAK is 74,650 sea otters (CI95 =36,778–136,506). Future analyses can improve upon the precision of K estimates by employing more frequent surveys at index sites and incorporating environmental covariates into the process model to generate habitat-specific estimates of equilibrium density.
The rise of an apex predator following deglaciation
Aim Sea otters ( Enhydra lutris ) are an apex predator of the nearshore marine community and nearly went extinct at the turn of the 20th century. Reintroductions and legal protection allowed sea otters to re‐colonize much of their former range. Our objective was to chronicle the colonization of this apex predator in Glacier Bay, Alaska, to help understand the mechanisms that governed their successful colonization. Location Glacier Bay is a tidewater glacier fjord in southeastern Alaska that was entirely covered by glaciers in the mid‐18th century. Since then, it has endured the fastest tidewater glacier retreat in recorded history. Methods We collected and analysed several data sets, spanning 20 years, to document the spatio‐temporal dynamics of an apex predator expanding into an area where they were formerly absent. We used novel quantitative tools to model the occupancy, abundance and colonization dynamics of sea otters, while accounting for uncertainty in the data collection process, the ecological process and model parameters. Results Twenty years after sea otters were first observed colonizing Glacier Bay, they became one of the most abundant and widely distributed marine mammal. The population grew exponentially at a rate of 20% per year. They colonized Glacier Bay at a maximum rate of 6 km per year, with faster colonization rates occurring early in the colonization process. During colonization, sea otters selected shallow areas, close to shore, with a steep bottom slope, and a relatively simple shoreline complexity index. Main conclusions The growth and expansion of sea otters in Glacier Bay demonstrate how legal protection and translocation of apex predators can facilitate their successful establishment into a community in which they were formerly absent. The success of sea otters was, in part, a consequence of habitat that was left largely unperturbed by humans for the past 250 years. Further, sea otters and other marine predators, whose distribution is limited by ice, have the potential to expand in distribution and abundance, reshaping future marine communities in the wake of deglaciation and global loss of sea ice.
Monitoring dynamic spatio-temporal ecological processes optimally
Population dynamics vary in space and time. Survey designs that ignore these dynamics may be inefficient and fail to capture essential spatio‐temporal variability of a process. Alternatively, dynamic survey designs explicitly incorporate knowledge of ecological processes, the associated uncertainty in those processes, and can be optimized with respect to monitoring objectives. We describe a cohesive framework for monitoring a spreading population that explicitly links animal movement models with survey design and monitoring objectives. We apply the framework to develop an optimal survey design for sea otters in Glacier Bay. Sea otters were first detected in Glacier Bay in 1988 and have since increased in both abundance and distribution; abundance estimates increased from 5 otters to >5,000 otters, and they have spread faster than 2.7 km/yr. By explicitly linking animal movement models and survey design, we are able to reduce uncertainty associated with forecasting occupancy, abundance, and distribution compared to other potential random designs. The framework we describe is general, and we outline steps to applying it to novel systems and taxa.
The nearshore benthic community of Kasatochi Island, one year after the 2008 volcanic eruption
A description is presented of the nearshore benthic community of Kasatochi Island 10–12 months after a catastrophic volcanic eruption in 2008. The eruption extended the coastline of the island approximately 400 m offshore, mainly along the south, southeast, and southwest shores, to roughly the 20 m isobath. Existing canopy kelp of Eualaria ( Alaria ) fistulosa , as well as limited understory algal species and associated fauna (e.g., urchin barrens) on the hard substratum were apparently buried following the eruption. Samples and observations revealed the substrate around the island in 2009 was comprised almost entirely of medium and coarse sands with a depauperate benthic community, dominated by opportunistic pontogeneiid amphipods. Comparisons of habitat and biological communities with other nearby Aleutian Islands, as well as with the Icelandic volcanic island of Surtsey, confirm dramatic reductions in flora and fauna consistent with an early stage of recovery from a large-scale disturbance event.
Timelines and mechanisms of wildlife population recovery following the Exxon Valdez oil spill
Research and monitoring activities over the 28 years since the T/V Exxon Valdez ran aground and spilled oil into Prince William Sound, Alaska have led to an improved understanding of how wildlife populations were damaged, as well as the mechanisms and timelines of recovery. A key finding was that for some species, such as harlequin ducks and sea otters, chronic oil spill effects persisted for at least two decades and were a larger influence on population dynamics over the long term than acute effects of the spill. These data also offer insights into population variation resulting from factors other than the oil spill. For example, while many seabirds experienced direct and indirect effects of the spill, population trajectories of some piscivorous birds, including pigeon guillemots and marbled murrelets, were linked to long-term environmental changes independent of spill effects. Another species, killer whales, suffered population declines due to acute spill effects that have not been resolved despite lack of chronic direct effects, representing a novel pathway of long-term injury. The observed variation in mechanisms and timelines of recovery is linked to species specific life history and natural history traits, and thus may be useful for predicting population recovery for other species following other spills.
Aerial surveys of sea otters (Enhydra lutris) in Lower Cook Inlet, Alaska, May, 2017
Portions of two stocks of northern sea otters (Enhydra lutris kenyoni) occur in Lower Cook Inlet (LCI), Alaska. Sea otters on the west side of LCI are considered part of the southwest Alaska stock; sea otters occupying eastern LCI are considered part of the southcentral Alaska stock. Information concerning the distributions and abundance of sea otters in LCI is needed to track the status and trends of these populations and address management concerns associated with oil and gas exploration and coastal development in the region. In May 2017, we conducted a series of replicate aerial surveys of sea otters across LCI following the methods of Bodkin and Udevitz (1999). Our abundance estimate for western LCI (southwest Alaska stock) was 10,737 (SE = 2,323) sea otters. Sea otters were not uniformly distributed across western LCI. The highest sea otter densities (up to 8 sea otter/km2) occurred within Kamishak Bay to the west and north of Augustine Island. Sea otter densities were relatively low north of Kamishak Bay. The total abundance estimate for eastern LCI (part of the southcentral Alaska stock) was 9,152 (SE = 1,020) sea otters. The highest densities of sea otters in eastern LCI were found along the north shore of Kachemak Bay and in Port Graham. We also found large numbers of sea otters along the eastern shore of LCI between Anchor Point and Clam Gulch. We recommend conducting a sea otter distribution survey in September, prior to the appearance of sea ice, and again during winter to examine potential seasonal shifts in sea otter distributions in LCI.