Geology topics

Gail M. Atkinson

Publications and source records attributed to Gail M. Atkinson.

14 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2023

Panel review of Ground Motion Characterization Model in 2023 NSHM

The 2023 National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM; Petersen et al., 2023) has two major components – a seismic source characterization (SSC) model and a ground motion characterization (GMC) model. The US Geological Survey (USGS) established separate panels to review and provide input on these two models. Both panels are advisory, meaning that they provide input on technical issues for consideration by the USGS NSHM team, but they do not have decision making authority. Here, we report on the activities and recommendations of the Ground Motion Characterization Panel, made up of the authors of this review. Final modeling decisions are presented in separate USGS documents, including Petersen et al., (2023) and Moschetti et al., (2023). Where modeling decisions depart from our recommendations, the rationale is explained in those publications.

Report↗

USGS2022

Comparisons of the NGA-Subduction ground motion models

In this article, ground-motion models (GMMs) for subduction earthquakes recently developed as part of the Next Generation Attenuation-Subduction (NGA-Sub) project are compared. The four models presented in this comparison study are documented in their respective articles submitted along with this article. Each of these four models is based on the analysis of the large NGA-Sub database. Three of the four current models are developed for a global version as well as separate regionalized models. The fourth model was developed based on earthquakes only from Japan, and as such is applicable only for Japan. As part of this comparison study, a general discussion on the parameterization of the four models and the regionalization of the three models is provided. The specific strengths and or weaknesses or the technical decisions and justifications of any one model are not part of this comparison. A selected suite of deterministic attenuation curves and spectra are presented for the models along with a selected suite of currently used subduction models. A limited number of comparisons are presented in this article with a larger number of comparisons and the digital values provided in the electronic attachment. In addition to these scenario calculation comparisons, the results from a standard probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for two sites located in the Pacific Northwest Region in the state of Washington are presented. These calculations highlight the potential impact of using the new GMMs. Based on the comparisons presented here, a general understanding of these new GMMs can be obtained with the expectation that the implementation of a specific seismic hazard study should incorporate similar and additional comparisons and sensitivity studies pertinent to the site of interest.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS2021

NGA-Subduction research program

This article summarizes the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) Subduction (NGA-Sub) project, a major research program to develop a database and ground motion models (GMMs) for subduction regions. A comprehensive database of subduction earthquakes recorded worldwide was developed. The database includes a total of 214,020 individual records from 1,880 subduction events, which is by far the largest database of all the NGA programs. As part of the NGA-Sub program, four GMMs were developed. Three of them are global subduction GMMs with adjustment factors for up to seven worldwide regions: Alaska, Cascadia, Central America and Mexico, Japan, New Zealand, South America, and Taiwan. The fourth GMM is a new Japan-specific model. The GMMs provide median predictions, and the associated aleatory variability, of RotD50 horizontal components of peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and 5%-damped pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA) at oscillator periods ranging from 0.01 to 10 s. Three GMMs also quantified “within-model” epistemic uncertainty of the median prediction, which is important in regions with sparse ground motion data, such as Cascadia. In addition, a damping scaling model was developed to scale the predicted 5%-damped PSA of horizontal components to other damping ratios ranging from 0.5% to 30%. The NGA-Sub flatfile, which was used for the development of the NGA-Sub GMMs, and the NGA-Sub GMMs coded on various software platforms, have been posted for public use.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS2021

NGA-subduction global ground motion models with regional adjustment factors

We develop semi-empirical ground motion models (GMMs) for peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and 5%-damped pseudo-spectral accelerations for periods from 0.01 to 10 s, for the median orientation-independent horizontal component of subduction earthquake ground motion. The GMMs are applicable to interface and intraslab subduction earthquakes in Japan, Taiwan, Mexico, Central America, South America, Alaska, the Aleutian Islands, and Cascadia. The GMMs are developed using a combination of data inspection, data regression with respect to physics-informed functions, ground-motion simulations, and geometrical constraints for certain model components. The GMMs capture observed differences in source and path effects for interface and intraslab events, conditioned on moment magnitude, rupture distance, and hypocentral depth. Site effect and aleatory variability models are shared between event types. Regionalized GMM components include the model constant (that controls ground motion amplitude), anelastic attenuation, magnitude-scaling break point, linear site response, and sediment depth terms. We develop models for the aleatory between-event variability ( τ ) "> ( τ ) , within-event variability ( ϕ ) "> ( ϕ ) , single-station within-event variability ( ϕ SS ) "> ( ϕ SS ) , and site-to-site variability ( ϕ S 2 S ) "> ( ϕ S 2 S ) . Ergodic analyses should use the median GMM and aleatory variability computed using the between-event and within-event variability models. An analysis incorporating non-ergodic site response should use the median GMM at the reference shear-wave velocity condition, a site-specific site response model, and aleatory variability computed using the between-event and single-station within-event variability models. Epistemic uncertainty in the median model is represented by standard deviations on the regional model constants, which facilitates scaled-backbone representations of model uncertainty in hazard analyses.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS2021

NGA-East Ground-Motion Characterization model part I: Summary of products and model development

In this article, we present an overview of the research project NGA-East, Next Generation Attenuation for Central and Eastern North America (CENA), and summarize the key methodology and products. The project was tasked with developing a new ground motion characterization (GMC) model for CENA. The final NGA-East GMC model includes a set of 17 median ground motion models (GMMs) for peak ground acceleration and velocity (PGA, PGV) and response spectral ordinates for periods ranging from 0.01 to 10 s. The NGA-East GMMs are applicable to horizontal components of ground motions on very hard rock, for the moment magnitude range of 4.0–8.2, and distances of up to 1500 km. The aleatory standard deviations of GMMs are also provided for site-specific analysis (single-station standard deviation) and for general probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA) applications (ergodic standard deviation). In addition, adjustment factors are provided for source depth and hanging-wall effects, as well as for hazard computations at sites in the Gulf Coast Region. During the course of the project, several innovative technologies were developed and implemented to increase the transparency and repeatability of the GMC building process. This involved expanding on a set of candidate median GMMs to define and capture an appropriate range of epistemic uncertainty in ground motions. We also developed a new approach for modeling the aleatory variability that was completely independent of the median GMMs. The development made extensive use of the CENA database but also borrowed data from other parts of the world when relevant and led to an integrated suite of models. Through this repeatable process, epistemic uncertainty could be quantified more objectively than before, relying less on expert opinion. The NGA-East project went through a comprehensive Seismic Senior Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 3 peer review process before its release.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS2021

NGA-East ground-motion characterization model Part II: Implementation and hazard implications

As a companion article to Goulet et al., we describe implementation of the NGA-East ground motion characterization (GMC) model in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for sites in the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS). We present extensions to the EPRI/DOE/NRC seismic source characterization (SSC) model for the CEUS needed for full implementation of NGA-East. Comparisons are presented to the EPRI GMC, the currently accepted model by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission for hazard assessment at nuclear facilities. Comparisons are presented both in terms of GMC model components and in the resulting seismic hazard assessments for a range of site locations in the CEUS. Illustrations of the effect of various components of the NGA-East GMC on seismic hazard results are also presented. Finally, we present recommendations for application of the NGA-East GMC in PSHA.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS2019

Comparison of site dominant frequency from earthquake and microseismic data in California

An important predictive variable for site amplification is the site dominant frequency ( ⁠ƒ d ⁠ ). At seismic monitoring stations, ƒ d can be calculated from the peak of the horizontal‐to‐vertical spectral ratios (HVSRs) obtained from earthquake recordings (eHVSR). For other sites, ƒ d can be estimated from microseismic (mHVSR) observations. We compare the ƒ d values derived from eHVSR (5% damped response spectra from the Next Generation Attenuation‐West2 [NGA‐West2] database; Ancheta et al. , 2014 ) with those derived from mHVSR (Fourier spectra from Yong et al. , 2013 ) for seismic stations in California. We show that the logarithm of eHVSR ƒ d scales linearly with the logarithm of mHVSR ƒ d ⁠ , with a standard deviation of 0.14log 10 units for mHVSR ƒ d larger than 0.2 Hz. The relationship holds for microseismic surveys at distances up to 300 m away from the seismic stations. The results of this study have beneficial implications for the characterization of site response in modern ground‐motion models as well as in building codes.

California↗

USGS2018

The intensity signature of induced seismicity

We analyze a comprehensive database of ∼ 63 , 000 "> ∼ 63 , 000 geocoded community intensity observations from > 400 "> > 400 earthquakes of moment magnitude M ≥ 3.5 "> M ≥ 3.5 in Oklahoma from 2010 to 2016 to define the intensity signature of induced events. We show that natural and induced events have similar average intensities within 10 km of the epicenter. At greater distances, induced events have low‐average intensities compared with deeper natural events. These trends are predictable based on ground‐motion prediction equations. They are a consequence of two focal‐depth effects that have offsetting impacts on the strength of ground motion: (1) the epicenter is near the source for shallow events, and (2) the stress parameter scales with focal depth.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2016

NGA-West2 equations for predicting vertical-component PGA, PGV, and 5%-damped PSA from shallow crustal earthquakes

We present ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for computing natural log means and standard deviations of vertical-component intensity measures (IMs) for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions. The equations were derived from a global database with M 3.0–7.9 events. The functions are similar to those for our horizontal GMPEs. We derive equations for the primary M - and distance-dependence of peak acceleration, peak velocity, and 5%-damped pseudo-spectral accelerations at oscillator periods between 0.01–10 s. We observe pronounced M -dependent geometric spreading and region-dependent anelastic attenuation for high-frequency IMs. We do not observe significant region-dependence in site amplification. Aleatory uncertainty is found to decrease with increasing magnitude; within-event variability is independent of distance. Compared to our horizontal-component GMPEs, attenuation rates are broadly comparable (somewhat slower geometric spreading, faster apparent anelastic attenuation), V S 30 -scaling is reduced, nonlinear site response is much weaker, within-event variability is comparable, and between-event variability is greater.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS2014

NGA-West 2 Equations for predicting PGA, PGV, and 5%-Damped PSA for shallow crustal earthquakes

We provide ground-motion prediction equations for computing medians and standard deviations of average horizontal component intensity measures (IMs) for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions. The equations were derived from a global database with M 3.0–7.9 events. We derived equations for the primary M- and distance-dependence of the IMs after fixing the V S30 -based nonlinear site term from a parallel NGA-West 2 study. We then evaluated additional effects using mixed effects residuals analysis, which revealed no trends with source depth over the M range of interest, indistinct Class 1 and 2 event IMs, and basin depth effects that increase and decrease long-period IMs for depths larger and smaller, respectively, than means from regional V S30 -depth relations. Our aleatory variability model captures decreasing between-event variability with M, as well as within-event variability that increases or decreases with M depending on period, increases with distance, and decreases for soft sites.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS2014

NGA-West2 Research Project

The NGA-West2 project is a large multidisciplinary, multi-year research program on the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) models for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions. The research project has been coordinated by the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER), with extensive technical interactions among many individuals and organizations. NGA-West2 addresses several key issues in ground-motion seismic hazard, including updating the NGA database for a magnitude range of 3.0–7.9; updating NGA ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for the “average” horizontal component; scaling response spectra for damping values other than 5%; quantifying the effects of directivity and directionality for horizontal ground motion; resolving discrepancies between the NGA and the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) site amplification factors; analysis of epistemic uncertainty for NGA GMPEs; and developing GMPEs for vertical ground motion. This paper presents an overview of the NGA-West2 research program and its subprojects.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS2013

The attenuation of Fourier amplitudes for rock sites in eastern North America

We develop an empirical model of the decay of Fourier amplitudes for earthquakes of M 3–6 recorded on rock sites in eastern North America and discuss its implications for source parameters. Attenuation at distances from 10 to 500 km may be adequately described using a bilinear model with a geometric spreading of 1/R 1.3 to a transition distance of 50 km, with a geometric spreading of 1/R 0.5 at greater distances. For low frequencies and distances less than 50 km, the effective geometric spreading given by the model is perturbed using a frequency‐ and hypocentral depth‐dependent factor defined in such a way as to increase amplitudes at lower frequencies near the epicenter but leave the 1 km source amplitudes unchanged. The associated anelastic attenuation is determined for each event, with an average value being given by a regional quality factor of Q=525f 0.45 . This model provides a match, on average, between the known seismic moment of events and the inferred low‐frequency spectral amplitudes at R=1 km (obtained by correcting for the attenuation model). The inferred Brune stress parameters from the high‐frequency source terms are about 600 bars (60 MPa), on average, for events of M>4.5.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2011

Representation of bidirectional ground motions for design spectra in building codes

The 2009 NEHRP Provisions modified the definition of horizontal ground motion from the geometric mean of spectral accelerations for two components to the peak response of a single lumped mass oscillator regardless of direction. These maximum-direction (MD) ground motions operate under the assumption that the dynamic properties of the structure (e.g., stiffness, strength) are identical in all directions. This assumption may be true for some in-plan symmetric structures, however, the response of most structures is dominated by modes of vibration along specific axes (e.g., longitudinal and transverse axes in a building), and often the dynamic properties (especially stiffness) along those axes are distinct. In order to achieve structural designs consistent with the collapse risk level given in the NEHRP documents, we argue that design spectra should be compatible with expected levels of ground motion along those principal response axes. The use of MD ground motions effectively assumes that the azimuth of maximum ground motion coincides with the directions of principal structural response. Because this is unlikely, design ground motions have lower probability of occurrence than intended, with significant societal costs. We recommend adjustments to make design ground motions compatible with target risk levels.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS1997

Some comparisons between recent ground-motion relations

We provide an overview of new ground-motion relations for eastern North America (ENA) developed over the last five years. The empirical-stochastic relations of Atkinson and Boore (1995) are compared to relations developed by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI, 1993; also Toro et al. , 1994), Frankel et al. (1996), and the consensus ENA ground-motion values as reported by SSHAC (1996). The main difference between our relations and those of EPRI or Frankel is in the low-frequency amplitudes ( f < 2 Hz, all magnitudes). We predict lower amplitudes (by more than a factor of two) at 1 Hz, largely due to our use of an empirical source model rather than a single-corner-frequency Brune source model; the use of the empirical source model is motivated by the desire to match the ENA ground-motion database as closely as possible. We also compare our new ENA relations to empirical relations for California. The comparison is complicated by the need to adjust the ENA hard-rock motions to obtain equivalent motions for typical California soil conditions. Two alternative methods of making this correction lead to somewhat different conclusions. One possible conclusion is that our ENA relations predict similar low-frequency amplitudes to those predicted by Boore et al. (1993, 1994) and Abrahamson and Silva (1996) for California, but our predicted ENA amplitudes are much higher (factor > 2) than California values at high frequencies. The alternative soil correction leads to the conclusion that our ENA relations are moderately lower (factor<2) than the California relations at low frequencies, and moderately higher at high frequencies. Both of these conclusions imply that ground-motion relations or time series for earthquakes in one region cannot be simply modified for use in engineering analyses in another region.

Seismological Research Letters↗