Geology topics

G. M. Atkinson

Publications and source records attributed to G. M. Atkinson.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2011

Modifications to existing ground-motion prediction equations in light of new data

We compare our recent ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for western North America (WNA; Boore and Atkinson, 2008 [BA08]) and eastern North America (ENA; Atkinson and Boore, 2006 [AB06]; Atkinson, 2008 [A08]) to newly available ground-motion data. Based on these comparisons, we suggest revisions to our GMPEs for both WNA and ENA. The revisions for WNA affect only those events with M ≤ 5:75, while those for ENA affect all magnitudes. These are simple modi[1]fications to the existing GMPEs that bring them into significantly better agreement with data. The wealth of new data clearly demonstrates that these modifications are warranted; we therefore recommend the use of the updated equations for seismic hazard analyses and other applications. More detailed studies are under way by many investigators (including ourselves) to develop a new generation of ground-motion models in both WNA and ENA from scratch, through a comprehensive reevaluation of source, path, site, and modeling issues. In time, those more complete models will replace those proposed in this study. However, as the new models will be several years in development, we recommend using the modified models proposed herein, labeled BA08′ (for WNA), AB06′ (for ENA), and A08′ (for ENA, to replace A08), as interim updates to our existing models. The proposed models are in demonstrable agreement with a rich database of ground motions for moderate-magnitude earthquakes in both WNA and ENA and are constrained at larger magnitudes by the BA08 magnitude and distance scaling.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2010

Determination of stress parameters for eight well-recorded earthquakes in eastern North America

We determined the stress parameter, Δσ , for the eight earthquakes studied by Atkinson and Boore (2006), using an updated dataset and a revised point-source stochastic model that captures the effect of a finite fault. We consider four geometrical-spreading functions, ranging from 1/ R at all distances to two- or three-part functions. The Δσ values are sensitive to the rate of geometrical spreading at close distances, with 1/ R 1.3 spreading implying much higher Δσ than models with 1/ R spreading. The important difference in ground motions of most engineering concern, however, arises not from whether the geometrical spreading is 1/ R 1.3 or 1/ R at close distances, but from whether a region of flat or increasing geometrical spreading at intermediate distances is present, as long as Δσ is constrained by data that are largely at distances of 100 km–800 km. The simple 1/ R model fits the sparse data for the eight events as well as do more complex models determined from larger datasets (where the larger datasets were used in our previous ground-motion prediction equations); this suggests that uncertainty in attenuation rates is an important component of epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion modeling. For the attenuation model used by Atkinson and Boore (2006), the average value of Δσ from the point-source model ranges from 180 bars to 250 bars, depending on whether or not the stress parameter from the 1988 Saguenay earthquake is included in the average. We also find that Δσ for a given earthquake is sensitive to its moment magnitude M , with a change of 0.1 magnitude units producing a factor of 1.3 change in the derived Δσ .

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2008

Ground-motion prediction equations for the average horizontal component of PGA, PGV, and 5%-damped PSA at spectral periods between 0.01 s and 10.0 s

This paper contains ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for average horizontal-component ground motions as a function of earthquake magnitude, distance from source to site, local average shear-wave velocity, and fault type. Our equations are for peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), and 5%-damped pseudo-absolute-acceleration spectra (PSA) at periods between 0.01 s and 10 s. They were derived by empirical regression of an extensive strong-motion database compiled by the 'PEER NGA' (Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center's Next Generation Attenuation) project. For periods less than 1 s, the analysis used 1,574 records from 58 mainshocks in the distance range from 0 km to 400 km (the number of available data decreased as period increased). The primary predictor variables are moment magnitude (M), closest horizontal distance to the surface projection of the fault plane (RJB), and the time-averaged shear-wave velocity from the surface to 30 m (VS30). The equations are applicable for M=5-8, RJB<200 km, and VS30= 180-1300 m/s. ?? 2008, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS2007

Comparison of earthquake source spectra and attenuation in eastern North America and southeastern Australia

The paucity of ground-motion data in stable continental regions (SCRs) remains a key limitation when developing relations that seek to predict effects of strong ground shaking from large damaging earthquakes. It is desirable to combine data from more than one SCR to increase database size, but this raises questions as to whether the source and attenuation properties of the SCRs are equivalent. We compare recently compiled spectral-amplitude databases from small to moderate events (moment magnitudes, 2.0 ??? M ??? 5.0) in both southeastern Australia and eastern North America (ENA). Both are SCRs but are widely separated, spatially and in tectonic history. We statistically compare ground motions by plotting mean and standard deviations of spectral amplitudes for data grouped in magnitude and distance bins. These comparisons show that the source and attenuation properties of the two regions are very similar, in particular, at shorter hypocentral distances R (i.e., R < 70 km). At larger distances, regional attenuation differences are observed that may be attributed to differences in crustal structure. We conclude that it is valid to combine the Australian and ENA ground-motion datasets in the development of ground-motion prediction equations, with some limitations in frequency and distance ranges. These ground-motion relations may serve as generic functions for SCRs around the world.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2006

Earthquake ground-motion prediction equations for eastern North America

New earthquake ground-motion relations for hard-rock and soil sites in eastern North America (ENA), including estimates of their aleatory uncertainty (variability) have been developed based on a stochastic finite-fault model. The model incorporates new information obtained from ENA seismographic data gathered over the past 10 years, including three-component broadband data that provide new information on ENA source and path effects. Our new prediction equations are similar to the previous ground-motion prediction equations of Atkinson and Boore (1995), which were based on a stochastic point-source model. The main difference is that high-frequency amplitudes (f ??? 5 Hz) are less than previously predicted (by about a factor of 1.6 within 100 km), because of a slightly lower average stress parameter (140 bars versus 180 bars) and a steeper near-source attenuation. At frequencies less than 5 Hz, the predicted ground motions from the new equations are generally within 25% of those predicted by Atkinson and Boore (1995). The prediction equations agree well with available ENA ground-motion data as evidenced by near-zero average residuals (within a factor of 1.2) for all frequencies, and the lack of any significant residual trends with distance. However, there is a tendency to positive residuals for moderate events at high frequencies in the distance range from 30 to 100 km (by as much as a factor of 2). This indicates epistemic uncertainty in the prediction model. The positive residuals for moderate events at < 100 km could be eliminated by an increased stress parameter, at the cost of producing negative residuals in other magnitude-distance ranges; adjustment factors to the equations are provided that may be used to model this effect.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2003

Empirical ground-motion relations for subduction-zone earthquakes and their application to Cascadia and other regions

Ground-motion relations for earthquakes that occur in subduction zones are an important input to seismic-hazard analyses in many parts of the world. In the Cascadia region (Washington, Oregon, northern California, and British Columbia), for example, there is a significant hazard from megathrust earthquakes along the subduction interface and from large events within the subducting slab. These hazards are in addition to the hazard from shallow earthquakes in the overlying crust. We have compiled a response spectra database from thousands of strong-motion recordings from events of moment magnitude ( M ) 5-8.3 occurring in subduction zones around the world, including both interface and in-slab events. The 2001 M 6.8 Nisqually and 1999 M 5.9 Satsop earthquakes are included in the database, as are many records from subduction zones in Japan (Kyoshin-Net data), Mexico (Guerrero data), and Central America. The size of the database is four times larger than that available for previous empirical regressions to determine ground-motion relations for subduction-zone earthquakes. The large dataset enables improved determination of attenuation parameters and magnitude scaling, for both interface and in-slab events. Soil response parameters are also better determined by the data.

British Columbia, California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2002

The 26 January 2001 M 7.6 Bhuj, India, earthquake: Observed and predicted ground motions

Although local and regional instrumental recordings of the devastating 26, January 2001, Bhuj earthquake are sparse, the distribution of macroseismic effects can provide important constraints on the mainshock ground motions. We compiled available news accounts describing damage and other effects and interpreted them to obtain modified Mercalli intensities (MMIs) at >200 locations throughout the Indian subcontinent. These values are then used to map the intensity distribution throughout the subcontinent using a simple mathematical interpolation method. Although preliminary, the maps reveal several interesting features. Within the Kachchh region, the most heavily damaged villages are concentrated toward the western edge of the inferred fault, consistent with western directivity. Significant sediment-induced amplification is also suggested at a number of locations around the Gulf of Kachchh to the south of the epicenter. Away from the Kachchh region, intensities were clearly amplified significantly in areas that are along rivers, within deltas, or on coastal alluvium, such as mudflats and salt pans. In addition, we use fault-rupture parameters inferred from teleseismic data to predict shaking intensity at distances of 0-1000 km. We then convert the predicted hard-rock ground-motion parameters to MMI by using a relationship (derived from Internet-based intensity surveys) that assigns MMI based on the average effects in a region. The predicted MMIs are typically lower by 1-3 units than those estimated from news accounts, although they do predict near-field ground motions of approximately 80%g and potentially damaging ground motions on hard-rock sites to distances of approximately 300 km. For the most part, this discrepancy is consistent with the expected effect of sediment response, but it could also reflect other factors, such as unusually high building vulnerability in the Bhuj region and a tendency for media accounts to focus on the most dramatic damage, rather than the average effects. The discrepancy may also be partly attributable to the inadequacy of the empirical relationship between MMI and peak ground acceleration (PGA), when applied to India. The MMI-PGA relationship was developed using data from California earthquakes, which might have a systematically different stress drop and therefore, a different frequency content than intraplate events. When a relationship between response spectra and MMI is used, we obtain larger predicted MMI values, in better agreement with the observations.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗