Geology topics

G Scott Boomer

Publications and source records attributed to G Scott Boomer.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2016

Cross-seasonal effects on waterfowl productivity: Implications under climate change

Previous efforts to relate winter-ground precipitation to subsequent reproductive success as measured by the ratio of juveniles to adults in the autumn failed to account for increased vulnerability of juvenile ducks to hunting and uncertainty in the estimated age ratio. Neglecting increased juvenile vulnerability will positively bias the mean productivity estimate, and neglecting increased vulnerability and estimation uncertainty will positively bias the year-to-year variance in productivity because raw age ratios are the product of sampling variation, the year-specific vulnerability, and year-specific reproductive success. Therefore, we estimated the effects of cumulative winter precipitation in the California Central Valley and the Mississippi Alluvial Valley on pintail ( Anas acuta ) and mallard ( Anas platyrhnchos ) reproduction, respectively, using hierarchical Bayesian methods to correct for sampling bias in productivity estimates and observation error in covariates. We applied the model to a hunter-collected parts survey implemented by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service and band recoveries reported to the United States Geological Survey Bird Banding Laboratory using data from 1961 to 2013. We compared our results to previous estimates that used simple linear regression on uncorrected age ratios from a smaller subset of years in pintail (1961–1985). Like previous analyses, we found large and consistent effects of population size and wetland conditions in prairie Canada on mallard productivity, and large effects of population size and mean latitude of the observed breeding population on pintail productivity. Unlike previous analyses, we report a large amount of uncertainty in the estimated effects of wintering-ground precipitation on pintail and mallard productivity, with considerable uncertainty in the sign of the estimated main effect, although the posterior medians of precipitation effects were consistent with past studies. We found more consistent estimates in the sign of an interaction effect between population size and precipitation, suggesting that wintering-ground precipitation has a larger effect in years of high population size, especially for pintail. When we used the estimated effects in a population model to derive a sustainable harvest and population size projection (i.e., a yield curve), there was considerable uncertainty in the effect of increased or decreased wintering-ground precipitation on sustainable harvest potential and population size. These results suggest that the mechanism of cross-seasonal effects between winter habitat and reproduction in ducks occurs through a reduction in the strength of density dependence in years of above-average wintering-ground precipitation. We suggest additional investigation of the underlying mechanisms and that habitat managers and decision-makers consider the level of uncertainty in these estimates when attempting to integrate habitat management and harvest management decisions. Collection of annual data on the status of wintering-ground habitat in a rigorous sampling framework would likely be the most direct way to improve understanding of mechanisms and inform management.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2016

State-dependent resource harvesting with lagged information about system states

Markov decision processes (MDPs), which involve a temporal sequence of actions conditioned on the state of the managed system, are increasingly being applied in natural resource management. This study focuses on the modification of a traditional MDP to account for those cases in which an action must be chosen after a significant time lag in observing system state, but just prior to a new observation. In order to calculate an optimal decision policy under these conditions, possible actions must be conditioned on the previous observed system state and action taken. We show how to solve these problems when the state transition structure is known and when it is uncertain. Our focus is on the latter case, and we show how actions must be conditioned not only on the previous system state and action, but on the probabilities associated with alternative models of system dynamics. To demonstrate this framework, we calculated and simulated optimal, adaptive policies for MDPs with lagged states for the problem of deciding annual harvest regulations for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) in the United States. In this particular example, changes in harvest policy induced by the use of lagged information about system state were sufficient to maintain expected management performance (e.g. population size, harvest) even in the face of an uncertain system state at the time of a decision.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2014

The effects of harvest on waterfowl populations

Change in the size of populations over space and time is, arguably, the motivation for much of pure and applied ecological research. The fundamental model for the dynamics of any population is straightforward: the net change in the abundance is the simple difference between the number of individuals entering the population and the number leaving the population, either or both of which may change in response to factors intrinsic and extrinsic to the population. While harvest of individuals from a population constitutes a clear extrinsic source of removal of individuals, the response of populations to harvest is frequently complex, reflecting an interaction of harvest with one or more population processes. Here we consider the role of these interactions, and factors influencing them, on the effective harvest management of waterfowl populations. We review historical ideas concerning harvest and discuss the relationship(s) between waterfowl life histories and the development and application of population models to inform harvest management. The influence of population structure (age, spatial) on derivation of optimal harvest strategies (with and without explicit consideration of various sources of uncertainty) is considered. In addition to population structure, we discuss how the optimal harvest strategy may be influenced by: 1) patterns of density-dependence in one or more vital rates, and 2) heterogeneity in vital rates among individuals within an age-sex-size class. Although derivation of the optimal harvest strategy for simple population models (with or without structure) is generally straightforward, there are several potential difficulties in application. In particular, uncertainty concerning the population structure at the time of harvest, and the ability to regulate the structure of the harvest itself, are significant complications. We therefore review the evidence of effects of harvest on waterfowl populations. Some of this evidence has focussed on correspondence of data with more phenomenological models and other evidence relates to specific mechanisms, including densitydependence and heterogeneity. An important part of this evidence is found in the evolution of model weights under various adaptive harvest management programmes of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service for North American waterfowl. Overall, there is substantial uncertainty about system dynamics, about the impacts of potential management and conservation decisions on those dynamics, and how to optimise management decisions in the presence of such uncertainties. Such relationships are unlikely to be stationary over space or time, and selective harvest of some individuals can potentially alter life history allocation of resources over time – both of which will potentially influence optimal harvest strategies. These sources of variation and uncertainty argue for the use of adaptive approaches to waterfowl harvest management.

Wildfowl↗