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USGS2014

Structural equation models of VMT growth in US urbanised areas.

Vehicle miles travelled (VMT) is a primary performance indicator for land use and transportation, bringing with it both positive and negative externalities. This study updates and refines previous work on VMT in urbanised areas, using recent data, additional metrics and structural equation modelling (SEM). In a cross-sectional model for 2010, population, income and freeway capacity are positively related to VMT, while gasoline prices, development density and transit service levels are negatively related. Findings of the cross-sectional model are generally confirmed in a more tightly controlled longitudinal study of changes in VMT between 2000 and 2010, the first model of its kind. The cross-sectional and longitudinal models together, plus the transportation literature generally, give us a basis for generalising across studies to arrive at elasticity values of VMT with respect to different urban variables.

Urban Studies↗

USGS2013

Combined effects of compact cevelopment, transportation investments, and road user pricing on vehicle miles traveled in urbanized areas

Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) is the primary determinant of traffic congestion, vehicle crashes, greenhouse gas emissions, and other effects of transportation. Two previous studies have sought to explain VMT levels in urbanized areas. This study updates and expands on previous work with more recent data, additional metrics, and structural equation modeling (SEM) to explain VMT levels in 315 urbanized areas. According to SEM, population, income, and gasoline prices are primary exogenous drivers of VMT. Development density is a primary endogenous driver. Urbanized areas with more freeway capacity are significantly less dense and have significantly higher VMT per capita. Areas with more transit service coverage and service frequency have higher development densities and per capita transit use, which leads to lower VMT per capita. The indirect effect of transit on VMT through land use, the so-called land use multiplier, is more than three times greater than the direct effect through transit ridership.

Transportation Research Record↗