Geology topics

Frank A. Deviney

Publications and source records attributed to Frank A. Deviney.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2012

Evaluation of Bayesian estimation of a hidden continuous-time Markov chain model with application to threshold violation in water-quality indicators

Natural resource managers require information concerning the frequency, duration, and long-term probability of occurrence of water-quality indicator (WQI) violations of defined thresholds. The timing of these threshold crossings often is hidden from the observer, who is restricted to relatively infrequent observations. Here, a model for the hidden process is linked with a model for the observations, and the parameters describing duration, return period, and long-term probability of occurrence are estimated using Bayesian methods. A simulation experiment is performed to evaluate the approach under scenarios based on the equivalent of a total monitoring period of 5-30 years and an observation frequency of 1-50 observations per year. Given constant threshold crossing rate, accuracy and precision of parameter estimates increased with longer total monitoring period and more-frequent observations. Given fixed monitoring period and observation frequency, accuracy and precision of parameter estimates increased with longer times between threshold crossings. For most cases where the long-term probability of being in violation is greater than 0.10, it was determined that at least 600 observations are needed to achieve precise estimates. An application of the approach is presented using 22 years of quasi-weekly observations of acid-neutralizing capacity from Deep Run, a stream in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia. The time series also was sub-sampled to simulate monthly and semi-monthly sampling protocols. Estimates of the long-term probability of violation were unbiased despite sampling frequency; however, the expected duration and return period were over-estimated using the sub-sampled time series with respect to the full quasi-weekly time series.

Journal of Environmental Informatics↗

USGS2007

Acid rain in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia

Visitors to Shenandoah National Park (SNP) enjoy the animal and plant life and the scenery but may not realize how vulnerable these features are to various threats, such as invasion of exotic plants and insects, improper use of park resources by humans, and air and water pollution. The National Park Service strives to protect natural resources from such threats to ensure that the resources will be available for enjoyment now and in the future. Because SNP has limited influence over the air pollution that envelops the region, acidic deposition--commonly known as acid rain--is one of the more challenging threats facing park managers. With the help of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists, park managers can understand how acid rain interacts with ground- and surface-water resources, which enables them to explain why reductions in air pollution can help preserve park resources. Such understanding also provides essential insight into ecosystem processes, as managers strive to unravel and resolve other environmental problems that are interrelated to acid rain.

Virginia↗

USGS2006

Time series and recurrence interval models to predict the vulnerability of streams to episodic acidification in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia

Acid rain affects headwater streams by temporarily reducing the acid‐neutralizing capacity (ANC) of the water, a process termed episodic acidification. The increase in acidic components in stream water can have deleterious effects on the aquatic biota. Although acidic deposition is uniform across Shenandoah National Park (SNP) in north central Virginia, the stream water quality response during rain events varies substantially. This response is a function of the catchment's underlying geology and topography. Geologic and topographic data for SNP's 231 catchments are readily available; however, long‐term measurements (tens of years) of ANC and accompanying discharge are not and would be prohibitively expensive to collect. Transfer function time series models were developed to predict hourly ANC from discharge for five SNP catchments with long‐term water‐quality and discharge records. Hourly ANC predictions over short time periods (≤1 week) were averaged, and distributions of the recurrence intervals of annual water‐year minimum ANC values were model‐simulated for periods of 6, 24, 72, and 168 hours. The distributions were extrapolated to the rest of the SNP catchments on the basis of catchment geology and topography. On the basis of the models, large numbers of SNP streams have 6‐ to 168‐hour periods of low‐ANC values, which may stress resident fish populations. Smaller catchments are more vulnerable to episodic acidification than larger catchments underlain by the same bedrock. Catchments with similar topography and size are more vulnerable if underlain by less basaltic/carbonate bedrock. Many catchments are predicted to have successive years of low‐ANC values potentially sufficient to extirpate some species.

Virginia↗

USGS2006

Predicting the vulnerability of streams to episodic acidification and potential effects on aquatic biota in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia

Acidic deposition is one of the most serious environmental problems affecting Shenandoah National Park in north-central Virginia. The park is the third most contaminated park in the National Park System because of the deposition of acid rain. Acid rain affects headwater streams in the park by temporarily reducing the acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC) of the water, a process termed episodic acidification. In turn, the increase in acidic components in streamwater can have deleterious effects on the aquatic biota. Although acidic deposition to the park is relatively uniform across its land area, the water-quality response of streamwater during rain events varies substantially. This response is a function of the underlying geology and topographic attributes of watersheds. Geologic and topographic data for the park's 231 watersheds are readily available; however, long-term (years and tens of years) measurements of streamwater ANC and accompanying discharge are not and would be prohibitively expensive to collect. Modeled predictions of the vulnerability of the park's streams to episodic acidification are an alternative to long-term water-quality monitoring. These predictions can aid park officials in making management decisions.

Virginia↗

USGS2004

Are brook trout streams in Western Virginia and Shenandoah National Park recovering from acidification?

Streamwater composition data obtained through periodic sampling of streams that support brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ) in the mountains of western Virginia were examined for evidence of recovery from acidification during the 1988−2001 period. Measurements of sulfate deposition in precipitation indicate that sulfate deposition in the region declined approximately 40% between 1985 and 2000. While no significant regional trends in acid−base constituents were observed for the set ( n = 65) of western Virginia study streams, significant regional trends were observed for a subset ( n = 14) of streams in Shenandoah National Park (SNP). For the subset of SNP streams, the median increase in acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC) was 0.168 μequiv L -1 year -1 and the median decrease in sulfate concentration was −0.229 μequiv L -1 year -1 . Although these trends are consistent with recovery from acidification, the degree of apparent recovery is small compared to estimates of historic acidification in SNP streams and much less than observed in other, more northern regions in the United States. Correlation between sulfate concentration trends and current sulfate concentrations in streamwater suggests that recovery from stream acidification in the western Virginia region is determined by sulfur retention processes in watershed soils. A transient increase in nitrate concentrations that occurred among some western Virginia streams following forest defoliation by the gypsy moth ( Lymantria dispar ) complicates interpretation of the observed patterns of change in acid−base status.

Virginia↗