Geology topics

Francis K. Rengers

Publications and source records attributed to Francis K. Rengers.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

USGS2024

Changes in soil erosion caused by wildfire: A conceptual biogeographic model

Soil erosion rates after wildfire are strongly controlled by intrinsic properties such as topography, weather, climate, soil, and vegetation. These landscape and hydroclimatic properties are important in determining post-fire erosion rates; however, their influence on post-fire erosion and their interaction with the intensity of a wildfire remains uncertain. A key limitation in resolving this uncertainty is the lack of conceptual models and frameworks for organising data related to the geomorphic sensitivity of landscapes to wildfire. Our aim is to develop a framework for consolidating understanding of post-fire erosion in the context of hydroclimatic conditions which contribute to system states, for example soil and vegetation properties, and wildfire regime. The framework is developed around a simple conceptual model where the change in erosion due to wildfire is a product of change in runoff generation and sediment supply, which is strongly related to landscape net primary productivity (NPP). We hypothesised that geomorphic sensitivity to wildfire should vary as a unimodal humped relationship across a gradient of NPP, peaking at an intermediate level. To develop this framework and to test the hypothesis, we first review intrinsic soil and vegetation properties related to the supply and transport of sediment from burned and unburned hillslopes. Net primary productivity is systematically related to these intrinsic properties because it integrates many processes involved in soil and vegetation development. Empirical data indicate a trend in the change in surface runoff generation with NPP after wildfire, peaking at an NPP of approximately 15 Mg C ha −1 y −1 . A simple model of fuel availability and soil heating are correlated with a similar “humped” trend in sediment supply. These results are consistent with our conceptual model, which indicates that sediment supply and runoff contribute towards a distinct peak in wildfire effects on erosion at an intermediate level of NPP. We propose that landscapes of intermediate NPP typically have the highest quantity of fuel available to burn, which cause large changes to the soil surface properties. Landscapes at intermediate NPP also tend to produce intrinsic soil and vegetation properties that promote erosion after wildfire. The interplay between these short and long-term landscape characteristics is strongest at intermediate levels of NPP. Our proposed biogeographic model of geomorphic sensitivity to wildfire was supported by erosion data from burned hillslope and zero-order catchments studies from a range fire-prone landscapes in Australia and North America. Our proposed conceptual model will help identify areas most vulnerable to post-fire erosion changes.

Geomorphology↗

USGS2023

The 2022 Chaos Canyon landslide in Colorado: Insights revealed by seismic analysis, field investigations, and remote sensing

An unusual, high-alpine, rapid debris slide originating in ice-rich debris occurred on June 28, 2022, at 16:33:16 MDT at the head of Chaos Canyon, a formerly glacier-covered valley in Rocky Mountain National Park, CO, USA. In this study, we integrate eyewitness videos and seismic records of the event with meteorological data, field observations, pre- and post-event satellite imagery, and uncrewed aircraft vehicle imagery to characterize the event and future hazards it may pose. Deformation of the eventual slide mass preceded rapid failure by decades, starting in the early to mid-2000s, accelerating in 2018 (the warmest year on record), and reaching ~ 20 m/year in 2021. The main event, which was preceded by smaller sliding episodes earlier that day, had a volume of ~ 2.1 million m 3 , reached peak velocities of about 5 m/s, slid on a surface up to 80 m deep, and moved up to ~ 245 m downslope in < 2 min. We observed blocks of frozen debris (permafrost) in the landslide deposits. Within ~ 2 weeks, these blocks had melted and became dry, conical debris mounds (molards). We hypothesize that the rapid slide was induced by gradually increasing long-term air temperatures that thawed ice and increased pore pressures. The presence and suspected influence of permafrost on the occurrence of this landslide indicate other slopes in the park, and other moderate-to-low latitude alpine regions may experience similar slope stability issues as temperatures continue to warm.

Colorado↗

USGS2023

Bedrock erosion by debris flows at Chalk Cliffs, Colorado, USA: Implications for bedrock channel evolution

Debris flow erosion into bedrock helps to set the pace of mountain denudation, but there are few empirical observations of this process. We studied the effects of debris flows on bedrock erosion using Structure-From-Motion photogrammetry and multiple real-time monitoring measurements. We found that the distribution of bedrock erosion across the channel cross-section could be generalized as an exponentially decreasing function of height above the channel thalweg. Using this empirical function, we simulated the erosion at a cross-section after the theoretical passage of a migrating knickpoint effectively matching the upstream pre-knickpoint cross-sectional shape to the downstream post-knickpoint cross-sectional shape via debris-flow bedrock erosion.

Colorado↗

USGS2023

Forecasting the inundation of postfire debris flows

In the semi-arid regions of the western United States, postfire debris flows are typically runoff generated. The U.S. Geological Survey has been studying the mechanisms of postfire debris-flow initiation for multiple decades to generate operational models for forecasting the timing, location, and magnitude of postfire debris flows. Here we discuss challenges and progress for extending operational capabilities to include modeling postfire debris-flow inundation extent. Analysis of volume and impacted area scaling relationships indicated that postfire debris flows do not conform to assumptions of geometric self-similarity. We documented sensitivity of impacted areas to rainfall intensity using a candidate methodology for generating inundation hazard assessments. Our results emphasize the importance of direct measurements of debris-flow volume, inundated area, and high temporal resolution rainfall intensity.

California↗

USGS2023

Postfire hydrologic response along the central California (USA) coast: Insights for the emergency assessment of postfire debris-flow hazards

The steep, tectonically active terrain along the Central California (USA) coast is well known to produce deadly and destructive debris flows. However, the extent to which fire affects debris-flow susceptibility in this region is an open question. We documented the occurrence of postfire debris floods and flows following the landfall of a storm that delivered intense rainfall across multiple burn areas. We used this inventory to evaluate the predictive performance of the US Geological Survey M1 likelihood model, a tool that presently underlies the emergency assessment of postfire debris-flow hazards in the western USA. To test model performance, we used the threat score skill statistic and found that the rainfall thresholds estimated by the M1 model for the Central California coast performed similarly to training (Southern California) and testing (Intermountain West) data associated with the original model calibration. Model performance decreased when differentiating between “minor” and “major” postfire hydrologic response types, which weigh effects on human life and infrastructure. Our results underscore that the problem of false positives is a major challenge for developing accurate rainfall thresholds for the occurrence of postfire debris flows. As wildfire activity increases throughout the western USA, so too will the demand for the assessment of postfire debris-flow hazards. We conclude that additional collection of field-verified inventories of postfire hydrologic response will be critical to prioritize which model variables may be suitable candidates for regional calibration or replacement.

California↗

USGS2023

Importance of subsurface water for hydrological response during storms in a post-wildfire bedrock landscape

Wildfire alters the hydrologic cycle, with important implications for water supply and hazards including flooding and debris flows. In this study we use a combination of electrical resistivity and stable water isotope analyses to investigate the hydrologic response during storms in three catchments: one unburned and two burned during the 2020 Bobcat Fire in the San Gabriel Mountains, California, USA. Electrical resistivity imaging shows that in the burned catchments, rainfall infiltrated into the weathered bedrock and persisted. Stormflow isotope data indicate that the amount of mixing of surface and subsurface water during storms was similar in all catchments, despite higher streamflow post-fire. Therefore, both surface runoff and infiltration likely increased in tandem. These results suggest that the hydrologic response to storms in post-fire environments is dynamic and involves more surface-subsurface exchange than previously conceptualized, which has important implications for vegetation regrowth and post-fire landslide hazards for years following wildfire.

California↗

USGS2023

The influence of large woody debris on post-wildfire debris flow sediment storage

Debris flows transport large quantities of water and granular material, such as sediment and wood, and this mixture can have devastating impacts on life and infrastructure. The proportion of large woody debris (LWD) incorporated into debris flows can be enhanced in forested areas recently burned by wildfire, because wood recruitment into channels accelerates in burned forests. In this study, we explored how LWD transported in post-wildfire debris flows acts to retain sediment within small headwater channels. We found that the largest amount of debris flow sediment is stored in channel reaches with a ratio of LWD length to channel width between 0.25 and 1. Moreover, the largest debris flow deposits forced by LWD were found in low-angle channel reaches. We examined two models for debris flow volume estimation: (1) the current volume prediction model used in U.S. Geological Survey debris flow hazard assessments, and (2) a regional model developed to predict the sediment yield associated with debris-laden flows. We found that the regional model better matched the magnitude of the observed sediment at the terminal fan, suggesting the utility of regionally calibrated parameters for debris flow volume prediction. However, large wood created sediment storage upstream of the terminal fan, and this volume was of the same magnitude as the total volume at the terminal fans. Finally, we demonstrate a method for estimating debris flow velocity based on estimates of the critical velocity required to break wood, which can be used in future field studies to estimate minimum debris flow velocity values.

New Mexico↗

USGS2023

Guidance for parameterizing post-fire hydrologic models with in situ infiltration measurements

Wildfire can alter soil-hydraulic properties, often resulting in an increased prevalence of infiltration-excess overland flow and greater potential for debris-flow hazards. Mini disk tension infiltrometers (MDIs) can be used to estimate soil hydraulic properties, such as field-saturated hydraulic conductivity ( K fs ) and wetting front potential ( H f ), and their spatial variability following wildfire. However, the small (point-scale) footprint of MDI measurements makes it challenging to use these data to parameterize hydrologic models at the hillslope and watershed scales where hydrologic hazards, such as debris flows, initiate. Here, we designed numerical experiments to estimate spatially constant or watershed-scale effective hydrologic parameters (EHPs) that approximate the response of spatially variable hydrologic parameters with distributions derived from MDI measurements at five sites in the southwestern United States. We found that it is possible to define EHPs for both K fs and H f based on the MDI measurements that lead to reasonable approximations of run-off hydrographs at the outlets of small watersheds (<1 km 2 ). We found that watershed EHPs are functions of rainfall characteristics, although they are most sensitive to rainfall intensity and relatively less sensitive to the temporal distribution of rainfall. EHPs are lower than the arithmetic mean of the MDI measurements and are better approximated by the median or geometric mean of the MDI measurements, particularly for storms with recurrence intervals of approximately 1 year or less that commonly initiate post-fire debris flows. This work demonstrated that using the proposed upscaling method to estimate watershed-scale EHPs, as opposed to approximating EHPs based on the arithmetic mean of the MDI measurements, improved the ability of a hydrologic model to identify storms that are likely to produce debris flows. Results improved our ability to link point-scale MDI measurements and watershed-scale EHPs in post-fire settings and helped guide our ability to use MDI data to parameterize post-fire hydrologic models.

Arizona, New Mexico↗

USGS2023

A review of common natural disasters as analogs for asteroid impact effects and cascading hazards

Modern civilization has no collective experience with possible wide-ranging effects from a medium-sized asteroid impactor. Currently, modeling efforts that predict initial effects from a meteor impact or airburst provide needed information for initial preparation and evacuation plans, but longer-term cascading hazards are not typically considered. However, more common natural disasters, such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, wildfires, dust storms, and hurricanes, are likely analogs that can provide the scope and scale of these potential effects. These events, especially the larger events with cascading effects, are key for understanding the scope and complexity of mitigation, relief, and recovery efforts for a medium-sized asteroid impact event. This paper reviews the initial and cascading effects of these natural hazards, describes the state of the art for modeling these hazards, and discusses the relevance of these hazards to expected long-term effects of an asteroid impact. Emergency managers, resource managers and planners, and research scientists involved in mitigation and recovery efforts would likely derive significant benefit from a framework linking multiple hazard models to provide a seamless sequence of related forecasts.

Natural Hazards↗

USGS2023

Simulating debris flow and levee formation in the 2D shallow flow model D-Claw: Channelized and unconfined flow

Debris flow runout poses a hazard to life and infrastructure. The expansion of human population into mountainous areas and onto alluvial fans increases the need to predict and mitigate debris flow runout hazards. Debris flows on unconfined alluvial fans can exhibit spontaneous self-channelization through levee formation that reduces lateral spreading and extends runout distances compared to unchannelized flows. Here we modify the D-Claw shallow flow model in two ways that are hypothesized to generate levees. We evaluate these modifications with observations from a large-scale flume experiment. We investigate model performance when including the effect of two different friction sub-models, as well as the inclusion of segregation effects on granular permeability. Results show that, for a wide range of plausible model input parameters, simulations including the effects of segregation promoted modeled levee formation, whereas simulations without the effects of segregation did not create levees. Further, using a forward predictive framework, simulations with the effects of segregation were more likely to better model the magnitude of debris flow depth and runout distance, whereas simulation timing of the debris flow was affected by the choice of friction sub-model. Our results indicate that including the effects of segregation on granular permeability can improve the likelihood of better predictions of debris flow depth and runout prior to an event occurring.

Earth and Space Science↗

USGS2022

A progressive flow-routing model for rapid assessment of debris-flow inundation

Debris flows pose a significant hazard to communities in mountainous areas, and there is a continued need for methods to delineate hazard zones associated with debris-flow inundation. In certain situations, such as scenarios following wildfire, where there could be an abrupt increase in the likelihood and size of debris flows that necessitates a rapid hazard assessment, the computational demands of inundation models play a role in their utility. The inability to efficiently determine the downstream effects of anticipated debris-flow events remains a critical gap in our ability to understand, mitigate, and assess debris-flow hazards. To better understand the downstream effects of debris flows, we introduce a computationally efficient, reduced-complexity inundation model, which we refer to as the Progressive Debris-Flow routing and inundation model (ProDF). We calibrate ProDF against mapped inundation from five watersheds near Montecito, CA, that produced debris flows shortly after the 2017 Thomas Fire. ProDF reproduced 70% of mapped deposits across a 40 km 2 study area. While this study focuses on a series of post-wildfire debris flows, ProDF is not limited to simulating debris-flow inundation following wildfire and could be applied to any scenario where it is possible to estimate a debris-flow volume. However, given its ability to reproduce mapped debris-flow deposits downstream of the 2017 Thomas Fire burn scar, and the modest run time associated with a simulation over this 40 km 2 study area, results suggest ProDF may be particularly promising for post-wildfire hazard assessment applications.

Landslides↗

USGS2021

Multi-model comparison of computed debris flow runout for the 9 January 2018 Montecito, California post-wildfire event

Hazard assessment for post-wildfire debris flows, which are common in the steep terrain of the western United States, has focused on the susceptibility of upstream basins to generate debris flows. However, reducing public exposure to this hazard also requires an assessment of hazards in downstream areas that might be inundated during debris flow runout. Debris flow runout models are widely available, but their application to hazard assessment for post-wildfire debris flows has not been extensively tested. Necessary inputs to these models include the total volume of the mobilized flow, flow properties (either inherent material properties or calibration coefficients), and site topography. Estimates of volume are possible in post-event (“back calculation”) studies, yet before an event, volume is an uncertain quantity. We simulated debris flow runout for the well-constrained 9 January 2018 Montecito event using three models (RAMMS, FLO2D, and D-Claw) to determine the relative importance of volume and flow properties. We broke the impacted area into three domains, and for each model-domain combination, we performed a numerical sampling study in which volume and flow properties varied within a wide, but plausible range. We assessed model performance based on inundation patterns and peak flow depths. We found all models could simulate the event with comparable results. Simulation performance was most sensitive to flow volume and less sensitive to flow properties. Our results emphasize the importance of reducing uncertainty in pre-event estimates of flow volume for hazard assessment.

California↗

USGS2021

Hydrogeomorphic recovery and temporal changes in rainfall thresholds for debris flows following wildfire

Wildfire-induced changes to soil and vegetation promote runoff-generated debris flows in steep watersheds. Postfire debris flows are most commonly observed in steep watersheds during the first wet season following a wildfire, but it is unclear how long the elevated threat of debris flow persists and why debris-flow potential changes in recovering burned areas. This work quantifies how rainfall intensity-duration (ID) thresholds for debris-flow initiation change with time since burning and provides a mechanistic explanation for these changes. We constrained a hydrologic model using field and remotely sensed measurements of soil-infiltration capacity, vegetation cover, runoff, and debris-flow activity. We applied this model to estimate rainfall ID thresholds for debris-flow initiation within three burned areas in the southwestern United States over a postfire recovery period of three to four years. Modeling suggests ID thresholds are lowest immediately following the fire (below a one-year recurrence interval [RI] storm) and increase with time, such that a 10- to 25-year RI storm would be required to generate a debris flow after three years of recovery. Modeled changes in rainfall ID thresholds result from increases in soil infiltration capacity, canopy interception, hydraulic roughness, and median grain size of sediment entrained in an incipient debris flow. The relative importance of each of these factors varied among our three sites. Results improve our ability to assess temporal changes in postfire debris-flow potential, highlight how site-specific factors may alter the persistence of postfire debris-flow hazards, and provide additional constraints on the timescale of recovery following wildfire.

Arizona, California, New Mexico↗

USGS2021

Movement of sediment through a burned landscape: Sediment volume observations and model comparisons in the San Gabriel Mountains, California, USA

Post-wildfire changes to hydrologic and geomorphic systems can lead to widespread sediment redistribution. Understanding how sediment moves through a watershed is crucial for assessing hazards, developing debris flow inundation models, engineering sediment retention solutions, and quantifying the role that disturbances play in landscape evolution. In this study, we used terrestrial and airborne lidar to measure sediment redistribution in the 2016 Fish Fire, in the San Gabriel Mountains in southern California, USA. The lidar areas are in two adjacent watersheds, at spatial scales of 900 m 2 to 4 km 2 , respectively. Terrestrial lidar data were acquired prior to rainfall, and two subsequent surveys show erosional change after rainstorms. Two airborne lidar flights occurred (1) 7 months before, and (2) 14 months after the fire ignition, capturing the erosional effects after rainfall. We found hillslope erosion dominated the overall sediment budget in the first rainy season after wildfire. Only 7% of the total erosion came from the active channel bed and channel banks, and the remaining 93% of eroded sediment was derived from hillslopes. Within the channelized portion of the watershed erosion/deposition could be generally described with topographic metrics used in a stream power equation. Observed sediment volumes were compared with four empirical models and one process-based model. We found that the best predictions of sediment volume were obtained from an empirical model developed in the same physiographic region. Moreover, this study showed that post-wildfire erosion rates in the San Gabriel Mountains attain the same magnitude as millennial time scale bedrock erosion rates.

California↗

USGS2021

Postwildfire soil‐hydraulic recovery and the persistence of debris flow hazards

Deadly and destructive debris flows often follow wildfire, but understanding of changes in the hazard potential with time since fire is poor. We develop a simulation‐based framework to quantify changes in the hydrologic triggering conditions for debris flows as postwildfire infiltration properties evolve through time. Our approach produces time‐varying rainfall intensity‐duration thresholds for runoff‐ and infiltration‐generated debris flows with physics‐based hydrologic simulations that are parameterized with widely available hydroclimatic, vegetation reflectance, and soil texture data. When we apply our thresholding protocol to a test case in the San Gabriel Mountains (California, USA), the results are consistent with existing regional empirical thresholds and rainstorms that caused runoff‐ and infiltration‐generated debris flows soon after and three years following a wildfire, respectively. We find that the hydrologic triggering mechanisms for the two observed debris flow types are coupled with the effects of fire on the soil saturated hydraulic conductivity. Specifically, the rainfall intensity needed to generate debris flows via runoff increases with time following wildfire while the rainfall duration needed to produce debris flows via subsurface pore‐water pressures decreases. We also find that variations in soil moisture, rainfall climatology, median grain size, and root reinforcement could impact the median annual probability of postwildfire debris flows. We conclude that a simulation‐based method for calculating rainfall thresholds is a tractable approach to improve situational awareness of debris flow hazard in the years following wildfire. Further development of our framework will be important to quantify postwildfire hazard levels in variable climates, vegetation types, and fire regimes.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface↗

USGS2021

The timing and magnitude of changes to Hortonian overland flow at the watershed scale during the post-fire recovery process

Extreme hydrologic responses following wildfires can lead to floods and debris flows with costly economic and societal impacts. Process-based hydrologic and geomorphic models used to predict the downstream impacts of wildfire must account for temporal changes in hydrologic parameters related to the generation and subsequent routing of infiltration-excess overland flow across the landscape. However, we lack quantitative relationships showing how parameters change with time-since-burning, particularly at the watershed scale. To assess variations in best-fit hydrologic parameters with time, we used the KINEROS2 hydrological model to explore temporal changes in hillslope saturated hydraulic conductivity ( K sh ) and channel hydraulic roughness ( n c ) following a wildfire in the upper Arroyo Seco watershed (41.5 km 2 ), which burned during the 2009 Station fire in the San Gabriel Mountains, California, USA. This study explored runoff-producing storms between 2008 and 2014 to infer watershed hydraulic properties by calibrating the model to observations at the watershed outlet. Modelling indicates K sh is lowest in the first year following the fire and then increases at an average rate of approximately 4.2 mm/h/year during the first 5 years of recovery. The estimated values for K sh in the first year following the fire are similar to those obtained in previous studies on smaller watersheds (<1.5 km 2 ) following the Station fire, suggesting hydrologic changes detected here can be applied to lower-order watersheds. Hydraulic roughness, n c , was lowest in the first year following the fire, but increased by a factor of 2 after 1 year of recovery. Post-fire observations suggest changes in n c are due to changes in grain roughness and vegetation in channels. These results provide quantitative constraints on the magnitude of fire-induced hydrologic changes following severe wildfires in chaparral-dominated ecosystems as well as the timing of hydrologic recovery.

California↗

USGS2021

Extreme precipitation across adjacent burned and unburned watersheds reveals impacts of low severity wildfire on debris-flow processes

In steep landscapes, wildfire-induced changes to soil and vegetation can lead to extreme and hazardous geomorphic responses, including debris flows. The wildfire-induced mechanisms that lead to heightened geomorphic responses, however, depend on many site-specific factors including regional climate, vegetation, soil texture, and soil burn severity. As climate and land use change drive changes in fire regime, there is an increasing need to understand how fire alters geomorphic responses, particularly in areas where fire has been historically infrequent. Here, we examine differences in the initiation, magnitude, and particle-size distribution of debris flows that initiated within the area burned by the 2019 Woodbury Fire in central Arizona, USA, and those that initiated in a nearby unburned area. Despite similar rainfall intensities, unburned watersheds were less likely to produce debris flows. Debris flows in unburned areas initiated from both runoff and shallow landslides, while debris flows only initiated from runoff-related processes in the burned area. The grain-size distribution making up the matrix of debris-flow deposits within the burned area generally had a lower ratio of sand to silt relative to debris flows that initiated in the unburned area, though there were no systematic differences in the coarse fraction of debris-flow sediment between burned and unburned areas. Results help expand our ability to predict postwildfire debris-flow activity in a wider range of settings, specifically the Sonoran Desert ecoregion, and provide general insight into the impact of wildfire on geomorphic processes in steep terrain.

Arizona↗

USGS2021

Using high sample rate lidar to measure debris-flow velocity and surface geometry

Debris flows evolve in both time and space in complex ways, commonly starting as coherent failures but then quickly developing structures such as roll waves and surges. These processes are readily observed but difficult to study or quantify because of the speed at which they evolve. Many methods for studying debris flows consist of point measurements (e.g., flow height or basal stresses), which are inherently limited in spatial coverage and cannot fully characterize the spatiotemporal evolution of a flow. In this study, we use terrestrial lidar to measure debris-flow profiles at high sampling rates to examine debris-flow movement with high temporal and spatial precision and accuracy. We acquired measurements during gate-release experiments at the U.S. Geological Survey debris-flow flume, a unique experimental facility where debris flows can be artificially generated at a large scale. A lidar scanner was used to record repeat topographic profiles of the moving debris flows along the length of the flume with a narrow swath width (∼1 mm) at a rate of 60 Hz. The high-resolution lidar profiles enabled us to quantify flow front velocity of the debris flows and provided an unprecedented record of the development and evolution of the flow structure with a sub-second time resolution. The findings of this study demonstrate how to obtain quantitative measurements of debris-flow movement. In addition, the data help us to quantitatively define the development of a saltating debris-flow front and roll waves behind the debris-flow front. Such measurements may help constrain future modeling efforts.

Environmental and Engineering Geoscience↗