Geology topics

Forrest S. McFarland

Publications and source records attributed to Forrest S. McFarland.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2017

Long-term afterslip of the M6.0, 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake—Implications for forecasting amount and duration of afterslip on other major creeping faults

We present the longest record of surface afterslip on a continental strike‐slip fault for the 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield, California, earthquake, from which we can derive critical information about the duration and predictability of afterslip relevant to urban displacement hazard applications. Surface slip associated with this event occurred entirely postseismically along the interseismically creeping (0.6–1.5 cm/yr) main trace of the San Andreas fault. Using the first year of afterslip data, the program AFTER correctly predicted the cumulative surface afterslip (maximum ∼35 cm) eventually attained. By 1 yr postearthquake, observed afterslip had accumulated to only ∼74% of its modeled final value u f in units of length. The 6‐yr data suggested final slip would be reached everywhere by ∼6–12 yrs. Parkfield’s afterslip lasted much longer (∼6–12 yrs) than afterslip following a 2014 M 6.0 event in Napa, California, where no interseismic creep was known, and its afterslip neared completion (∼97% of u f ) by 1 yr. The uncertainty in u f for the Napa event fell to ≤2 cm in only three months, versus in 2 yrs for the Parkfield event, mostly because duration of the power‐law stage of afterslip at Parkfield is much longer, ∼1000 (493–1666) days versus ∼100 (35–421) days for Napa. Because the urban Hayward fault near San Francisco, California, like the Parkfield section, exhibits interseismic creep in a similar geological regime, significant afterslip might last for up to a decade following an anticipated M ≥6.7 earthquake, potentially delaying postearthquake recovery.

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USGS2014

Using surface creep rate to infer fraction locked for sections of the San Andreas fault system in northern California from alignment array and GPS data

Surface creep rate, observed along five branches of the dextral San Andreas fault system in northern California, varies considerably from one section to the next, indicating that so too may the depth at which the faults are locked. We model locking on 29 fault sections using each section’s mean long‐term creep rate and the consensus values of fault width and geologic slip rate. Surface creep rate observations from 111 short‐range alignment and trilateration arrays and 48 near‐fault, Global Positioning System station pairs are used to estimate depth of creep, assuming an elastic half‐space model and adjusting depth of creep iteratively by trial and error to match the creep observations along fault sections. Fault sections are delineated either by geometric discontinuities between them or by distinctly different creeping behaviors. We remove transient rate changes associated with five large (M≥5.5) regional earthquakes. Estimates of fraction locked, the ratio of moment accumulation rate to loading rate, on each section of the fault system provide a uniform means to inform source parameters relevant to seismic‐hazard assessment. From its mean creep rates, we infer the main branch (the San Andreas fault) ranges from only 20%±10% locked on its central creeping section to 99%–100% on the north coast. From mean accumulation rates, we infer that four urban faults appear to have accumulated enough seismic moment to produce major earthquakes: the northern Calaveras (M 6.8), Hayward (M 6.8), Rodgers Creek (M 7.1), and Green Valley (M 7.1). The latter three faults are nearing or past their mean recurrence interval.

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USGS2013

The Greenville Fault: preliminary estimates of its long-term creep rate and seismic potential

Once assumed locked, we show that the northern third of the Greenville fault (GF) creeps at 2 mm/yr, based on 47 yr of trilateration net data. This northern GF creep rate equals its 11-ka slip rate, suggesting a low strain accumulation rate. In 1980, the GF, easternmost strand of the San Andreas fault system east of San Francisco Bay, produced a M w 5.8 earthquake with a 6-km surface rupture and dextral slip growing to ≥2 cm on cracks over a few weeks. Trilateration shows a 10-cm post-1980 transient slip ending in 1984. Analysis of 2000-2012 crustal velocities on continuous global positioning system stations, allows creep rates of ~2 mm/yr on the northern GF, 0-1 mm/yr on the central GF, and ~0 mm/yr on its southern third. Modeled depth ranges of creep along the GF allow 5-25% aseismic release. Greater locking in the southern two thirds of the GF is consistent with paleoseismic evidence there for large late Holocene ruptures. Because the GF lacks large (>1 km) discontinuities likely to arrest higher (~1 m) slip ruptures, we expect full-length (54-km) ruptures to occur that include the northern creeping zone. We estimate sufficient strain accumulation on the entire GF to produce M w 6.9 earthquakes with a mean recurrence of ~575 yr. While the creeping 16-km northern part has the potential to produce a M w 6.2 event in 240 yr, it may rupture in both moderate (1980) and large events. These two-dimensional-model estimates of creep rate along the southern GF need verification with small aperture surveys.

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USGS2012

Long-term creep rates on the Hayward Fault: Evidence for controls on the size and frequency of large earthquakes

The Hayward fault (HF) in California exhibits large (Mw 6.5–7.1) earthquakes with short recurrence times (161±65 yr), probably kept short by a 26%–78% aseismic release rate (including postseismic). Its interseismic release rate varies locally over time, as we infer from many decades of surface creep data. Earliest estimates of creep rate, primarily from infrequent surveys of offset cultural features, revealed distinct spatial variation in rates along the fault, but no detectable temporal variation. Since the 1989 Mw 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake (LPE), monitoring on 32 alinement arrays and 5 creepmeters has greatly improved the spatial and temporal resolution of creep rate. We now identify significant temporal variations, mostly associated with local and regional earthquakes. The largest rate change was a 6‐yr cessation of creep along a 5‐km length near the south end of the HF, attributed to a regional stress drop from the LPE, ending in 1996 with a 2‐cm creep event. North of there near Union City starting in 1991, rates apparently increased by 25% above pre‐LPE levels on a 16‐km‐long reach of the fault. Near Oakland in 2007 an Mw 4.2 earthquake initiated a 1–2 cm creep event extending 10–15 km along the fault. Using new better‐constrained long‐term creep rates, we updated earlier estimates of depth to locking along the HF. The locking depths outline a single, &sim;50‐km‐long locked or retarded patch with the potential for an Mw&sim;6.8 event equaling the 1868 HF earthquake. We propose that this inferred patch regulates the size and frequency of large earthquakes on HF.

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USGS2009

Data from theodolite measurements of creep rates on San Francisco Bay region faults, California

Introduction Our purpose is to annually update our creep-data archive on San Francisco Bay region active faults for use by the scientific research community. Earlier data (1979-2001) were reported in Galehouse (2002) and were analyzed and described in detail in a summary report (Galehouse and Lienkaemper, 2003). A complete analysis of our earlier results obtained on the Hayward Fault was presented in Lienkaemper, Galehouse and Simpson (2001) and updated in Lienkaemper and others (2012). Lienkaemper and others (2014) provide a new overview and analysis of fault creep along all sections of the northern San Andreas Fault system, from which they estimate by how much fault creep reduces the seismic hazard for each fault section. From 1979 until his retirement from the project in 2001, Jon Galehouse of San Francisco State University (SFSU) and many student research assistants measured creep (aseismic slip) rates on these faults. The creep measurement project, which was initiated by Galehouse, continued through the Geosciences Department at SFSU from 2001-2006 under the direction of Karen Grove and John Caskey (Grove and Caskey, 2005) and since 2006 under Caskey (2007). Forrest McFarland has managed most of the technical and logistical project operations, as well as data processing and compilation since 2001. Data from 2001-2007 are found in McFarland and others (2007). From 2009 onward, we have released the raw data annually using this report (OF2009-1119) as a permanent publication link, while publishing more detailed analyses of these data in the scientific literature, such as Lienkaemper and others (2014). We maintain a project Web site (http://funnel.sfsu.edu/creep/) that includes the following information: project description, project personnel, creep characteristics and measurement, map of creep-measurement sites, creep-measurement site information, and links to data plots for each measurement site. Our most current, annually updated results are, therefore, accessible to the scientific community and to the general public. Information about the project can currently be requested by the public by an email link ( fltcreep@sfsu.edu) found on our project Web site.

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USGS2007

Data from theodolite measurements of creep rates on San Francisco Bay region faults, California: 1979-2007

Introduction Our purpose is to update with six additional years of data, our creep data archive on San Francisco Bay region active faults for use by the scientific research community. Earlier data (1979-2001) were reported in Galehouse (2002) and were analyzed and described in detail in a summary report (Galehouse and Lienkaemper, 2003). A complete analysis of our earlier results obtained on the Hayward fault was presented in Lienkaemper, Galehouse and Simpson (2001). Jon Galehouse of San Francisco State University (SFSU) and many student research assistants measured creep (aseismic slip) rates on these faults from 1979 until his retirement from the project in 2001. The creep measurement project, which was initiated by Galehouse, has continued through the Geosciences Department at SFSU from 2001-2006 under the direction of Co-P.I.'s Karen Grove and John Caskey (Grove and Caskey, 2005), and by Caskey since 2006. Forrest McFarland has managed most of the technical and logistical project operations as well as data processing and compilation since 2001. We plan to publish detailed analyses of these updated creep data in future publications. We maintain a project web site (http://funnel.sfsu.edu/creep/) that includes the following information: project description, project personnel, creep characteristics and measurement, map of creep measurement sites, creep measurement site information, and data plots for each measurement site. Our most current, annually updated results are therefore accessible to the scientific community and to the general public. Information about the project can currently be requested by the public by an email link (fltcreep@sfsu.edu) found on our project website.

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