Geology topics

F. Adnan Akyuz

Publications and source records attributed to F. Adnan Akyuz.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2016

Tree-ring-based estimates of long-term seasonal precipitation in the Souris River Region of Saskatchewan, North Dakota and Manitoba

Historically unprecedented flooding occurred in the Souris River Basin of Saskatchewan, North Dakota and Manitoba in 2011, during a longer term period of wet conditions in the basin. In order to develop a model of future flows, there is a need to evaluate effects of past multidecadal climate variability and/or possible climate change on precipitation. In this study, tree-ring chronologies and historical precipitation data in a four-degree buffer around the Souris River Basin were analyzed to develop regression models that can be used for predicting long-term variations of precipitation. To focus on longer term variability, 12-year moving average precipitation was modeled in five subregions (determined through cluster analysis of measures of precipitation) of the study area over three seasons (November–February, March–June and July–October). The models used multiresolution decomposition (an additive decomposition based on powers of two using a discrete wavelet transform) of tree-ring chronologies from Canada and the US and seasonal 12-year moving average precipitation based on Adjusted and Homogenized Canadian Climate Data and US Historical Climatology Network data. Results show that precipitation varies on long-term (multidecadal) time scales of 16, 32 and 64 years. Past extended pluvial and drought events, which can vary greatly with season and subregion, were highlighted by the models. Results suggest that the recent wet period may be a part of natural variability on a very long time scale.

Manitoba, North Dakota, Saskatchewan↗

USGS2015

Changes in seasonality and timing of peak streamflow in snow and semi-arid climates of the north-central United States, 1910–2012

Changes in the seasonality and timing of annual peak streamflow in the north-central USA are likely because of changes in precipitation and temperature regimes. A source of long-term information about flood events across the study area is the U.S. Geological Survey peak streamflow database. However, one challenge of answering climate-related questions with this dataset is that even in snowmelt-dominated areas, it is a mixed population of snowmelt/spring rain generated peaks and summer/fall rain generated peaks. Therefore, a process was developed to divide the annual peaks into two populations, or seasons, snowmelt/spring, and summer/fall. The two series were then tested for the hypotheses that because of changes in precipitation regimes, the odds of summer/fall peaks have increased and, because of temperature changes, snowmelt/spring peaks happen earlier. Over climatologically and geographically similar regions in the north-central USA, logistic regression was used to model the odds of getting a summer/fall peak. When controlling for antecedent wet and dry conditions and geographical differences, the odds of summer/fall peaks occurring have increased across the study area. With respect to timing within the seasons, trend analysis showed that in northern portions of the study region, snowmelt/spring peaks are occurring earlier. The timing of snowmelt/spring peaks in three regions in the northern part of the study area is earlier by 8.7– 14.3 days. These changes have implications for water interests, such as potential changes in lead-time for flood forecasting or changes in the operation of flood-control dams.

Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Monta↗

USGS2015

Changes in total phosphorus concentration in the Red River of the North Basin, 1970-2012

The Red River of the North drains much of eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota and flows north into Manitoba, Canada, ultimately into Lake Winnipeg; therefore, water quality is an International concern. With increased runoff in the past few decades, phosphorus flux (the amount of phosphorus transported by the river) has increased. This is a concern, especially with respect to Lake Winnipeg, an important inland fishery and recreational destination. There is pressure at the State and International levels to reduce phosphorus flux, an expensive proposition. Depending on the method (controlling sources, settling ponds, buffer strips), control of phosphorus flux is not always effective during spring runoff. This work represents a first step in developing a causal model for phosphorus flux by examining available data and changes in concentration over time. Total phosphorus concentration data for the Red River at Emerson, Manitoba, and at Fargo, North Dakota-Moorhead, Minnesota, were summarized and then analyzed using WRTDS (Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season) to describe total phosphorus changes over time in two analysis periods: 1970-1993 and 1993-2012. Total phosphorus concentration increased in the first period at Emerson, Manitoba, indicating phosphorus was likely being transported to streams during runoff events. A very different pattern occurred at Fargo-Moorhead with declines in concentration, except at high discharge. While concentration continually changes, during the second period it decreased during spring runoff at Emerson and Fargo-Moorhead and during the growing season at Fargo-Moorhead, perhaps because of improved agricultural practices and declines in some uses of phosphorus.

Red River of the North Basin↗