Geology topics

Ezechiel Turikunkiko

Publications and source records attributed to Ezechiel Turikunkiko.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2021

Optimal allocation of law enforcement patrol effort to mitigate poaching activities

Poaching is a global problem causing the decline of species worldwide. Optimizing the efficiency of ranger patrols to deter poaching activity at the lowest possible cost is crucial for protecting species with limited resources. We applied decision analysis and spatial optimization algorithms to allocate efforts of ranger patrols throughout a national park. Our objective was to mitigate poaching activity at or below management risk targets for the lowest monetary cost. We examined this trade‐off by constructing a Pareto efficiency frontier using integer linear programming. We used data from a ranger‐based monitoring program in Nyungwe National Park, Rwanda. Our measure of poaching risk is based on dynamic occupancy models that account for imperfect detection of poaching activities. We found that in order to achieve a 5% reduction in poaching risk, 622 ranger patrol events (each corresponding to patrolling 1‐km 2 sites) were needed within a year at a cost of US$49,760. In order to attain a 60% reduction in poaching risk, 15,560 patrol events were needed at a cost of US \$ 1,244,800. We evaluated the trade‐off between patrol cost and poaching risk based on our model by constructing a Pareto efficiency frontier and park managers found the solution for a 50% risk reduction to be a practical trade‐off based on funding constraints (comparable to recent years) and the diminishing returns between risk mitigation and cost. This expected reduction in risk required 8,558 patrol events per year at a cost of US \$ 684,640. Our results suggest that optimal solutions could increase efficiency compared to the actual effort allocations from 2006 to 2016 in Nyungwe National Park (e.g., risk reductions of ~30% under recent budgets compared to ~50% reduction in risk under the optimal strategy). The modeling framework in this study took into account imperfect detection of poaching risk as well as the directional and conditional nature of ranger patrol events given the spatial adjacency relationships of neighboring sites and access points. Our analyses can help to improve the efficiency of ranger patrols, and the modeling framework can be broadly applied to other spatial conservation planning problems with conditional, multilevel, site selection.

Nyungwe National Park↗

USGS2017

Are ranger patrols effective in reducing poaching-related threats within protected areas?

Poaching is one of the greatest threats to wildlife conservation world-wide. However, the spatial and temporal patterns of poaching activities within protected areas, and the effectiveness of ranger patrols and ranger posts in mitigating these threats, are relatively unknown. We used 10 years (2006–2015) of ranger-based monitoring data and dynamic multi-season occupancy models to quantify poaching-related threats, to examine factors influencing the spatio-temporal dynamics of these threats and to test the efficiency of management actions to combat poaching in Nyungwe National Park (NNP), Rwanda. The probability of occurrence of poaching-related threats was highest at lower elevations (1,801–2,200 m), especially in areas that were close to roads and tourist trails; conversely, occurrence probability was lowest at high elevation sites (2,601–3,000 m), and near the park boundary and ranger posts. The number of ranger patrols substantially increased the probability that poaching-related threats disappear at a site if threats were originally present (i.e. probability of extinction of threats). Without ranger visits, the annual probability of extinction of poaching-related threats was an estimated 7%; this probability would increase to 20% and 57% with 20 and 50 ranger visits per year, respectively. Our results suggest that poaching-related threats can be effectively reduced in NNP by adding ranger posts in areas where they do not currently exist, and by increasing the number of patrols to sites where the probability of poaching activities is high. Synthesis and applications . Our application of dynamic occupancy models to predict the probability of presence of poaching-related threats is novel, and explicitly considers imperfect detection of illegal activities. Based on the modelled relationships, we identify areas that are most vulnerable to poaching, and offer insights regarding how ranger patrols can be optimally deployed to reduce poaching-related threats and other illegal activites, while taking into account potential sampling biases. We show that poaching can be effectively reduced by increasing ranger patrols to areas under high risk of poaching activities, and by adding ranger patrols near these sites. These findings are broadly applicable to national parks and protected areas experiencing a high degree of poaching and other illegal activities.

Nyungwe National Park↗