Geology topics

Evan H. Campbell Grant

Publications and source records attributed to Evan H. Campbell Grant.

At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources

USGS2017

Integrating count and detection–nondetection data to model population dynamics

There is increasing need for methods that integrate multiple data types into a single analytical framework as the spatial and temporal scale of ecological research expands. Current work on this topic primarily focuses on combining capture–recapture data from marked individuals with other data types into integrated population models. Yet, studies of species distributions and trends often rely on data from unmarked individuals across broad scales where local abundance and environmental variables may vary. We present a modeling framework for integrating detection–nondetection and count data into a single analysis to estimate population dynamics, abundance, and individual detection probabilities during sampling. Our dynamic population model assumes that site-specific abundance can change over time according to survival of individuals and gains through reproduction and immigration. The observation process for each data type is modeled by assuming that every individual present at a site has an equal probability of being detected during sampling processes. We examine our modeling approach through a series of simulations illustrating the relative value of count vs. detection–nondetection data under a variety of parameter values and survey configurations. We also provide an empirical example of the model by combining long-term detection–nondetection data (1995–2014) with newly collected count data (2015–2016) from a growing population of Barred Owl ( Strix varia ) in the Pacific Northwest to examine the factors influencing population abundance over time. Our model provides a foundation for incorporating unmarked data within a single framework, even in cases where sampling processes yield different detection probabilities. This approach will be useful for survey design and to researchers interested in incorporating historical or citizen science data into analyses focused on understanding how demographic rates drive population abundance.

Ecology↗

USGS2017

Using decision analysis to support proactive management of emerging infectious wildlife diseases

Despite calls for improved responses to emerging infectious diseases in wildlife, management is seldom considered until a disease has been detected in affected populations. Reactive approaches may limit the potential for control and increase total response costs. An alternative, proactive management framework can identify immediate actions that reduce future impacts even before a disease is detected, and plan subsequent actions that are conditional on disease emergence. We identify four main obstacles to developing proactive management strategies for the newly discovered salamander pathogen Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans ( Bsal ). Given that uncertainty is a hallmark of wildlife disease management and that associated decisions are often complicated by multiple competing objectives, we advocate using decision analysis to create and evaluate trade-offs between proactive (pre-emergence) and reactive (post-emergence) management options. Policy makers and natural resource agency personnel can apply principles from decision analysis to improve strategies for countering emerging infectious diseases.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

USGS2017

Detecting spatial ontogenetic niche shifts in complex dendritic ecological networks

Ontogenetic niche shifts (ONS) are important drivers of population and community dynamics, but they can be difficult to identify for species with prolonged larval or juvenile stages, or for species that inhabit continuous habitats. Most studies of ONS focus on single transitions among discrete habitat patches at local scales. However, for species with long larval or juvenile periods, affinity for particular locations within connected habitat networks may differ among cohorts. The resulting spatial patterns of distribution can result from a combination of landscape-scale habitat structure, position of a habitat patch within a network, and local habitat characteristics—all of which may interact and change as individuals grow. We estimated such spatial ONS for spring salamanders ( Gyrinophilus porphyriticus ), which have a larval period that can last 4 years or more. Using mixture models to identify larval cohorts from size frequency data, we fit occupancy models for each age class using two measures of the branching structure of stream networks and three measures of stream network position. Larval salamander cohorts showed different preferences for the position of a site within the stream network, and the strength of these responses depended on the basin-wide spatial structure of the stream network. The isolation of a site had a stronger effect on occupancy in watersheds with more isolated headwater streams, while the catchment area, which is associated with gradients in stream habitat, had a stronger effect on occupancy in watersheds with more paired headwater streams. Our results show that considering the spatial structure of habitat networks can provide new insights on ONS in long-lived species.

Virginia↗

USGS2017

Evolutionary dynamics of an expressed MHC class IIβ locus in the Ranidae (Anura) uncovered by genome walking and high-throughput amplicon sequencing

The Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC) is a genomic region encoding immune loci that are important and frequently used markers in studies of adaptive genetic variation and disease resistance. Given the primary role of infectious diseases in contributing to global amphibian declines, we characterized the hypervariable exon 2 and flanking introns of the MHC Class IIβ chain for 17 species of frogs in the Ranidae, a speciose and cosmopolitan family facing widespread pathogen infections and declines. We find high levels of genetic variation concentrated in the Peptide Binding Region (PBR) of the exon. Ten codons are under positive selection, nine of which are located in the mammal-defined PBR. We hypothesize that the tenth codon (residue 21) is an amphibian-specific PBR site that may be important in disease resistance. Trans-species and trans-generic polymorphisms are evident from exon-based genealogies, and co-phylogenetic analyses between intron, exon and mitochondrial based reconstructions reveal incongruent topologies, likely due to different locus histories. We developed two sets of barcoded adapters that reliably amplify a single and likely functional locus in all screened species using both 454 and Illumina based sequencing methods. These primers provide a resource for multiplexing and directly sequencing hundreds of samples in a single sequencing run, avoiding the labour and chimeric sequences associated with cloning, and enabling MHC population genetic analyses. Although the primers are currently limited to the 17 species we tested, these sequences and protocols provide a useful genetic resource and can serve as a starting point for future disease, adaptation and conservation studies across a range of anuran taxa.

Developmental and Comparative Immunology↗

USGS2017

Antifungal bacteria on woodland salamander skin exhibit high taxonomic diversity and geographic variability

Diverse bacteria inhabit amphibian skin; some of those bacteria inhibit growth of the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis . Yet there has been no systematic survey of anti- B. dendrobatidis bacteria across localities, species, and elevations. This is important given geographic and taxonomic variations in amphibian susceptibility to B. dendrobatidis . Our collection sites were at locations within the Appalachian Mountains where previous sampling had indicated low B. dendrobatidis prevalence. We determined the numbers and identities of anti- B. dendrobatidis bacteria on 61 Plethodon salamanders (37 P. cinereus , 15 P. glutinosus , 9 P. cylindraceus ) via culturing methods and 16S rRNA gene sequencing. We sampled co-occurring species at three localities and sampled P. cinereus along an elevational gradient (700 to 1,000 meters above sea level [masl]) at one locality. We identified 50 anti- B. dendrobatidis bacterial operational taxonomic units (OTUs) and found that the degree of B. dendrobatidis inhibition was not correlated with relatedness. Five anti- B. dendrobatidis bacterial strains occurred on multiple amphibian species at multiple localities, but none were shared among all species and localities. The prevalence of anti- B. dendrobatidis bacteria was higher at Shenandoah National Park (NP), VA, with 96% (25/26) of salamanders hosting at least one anti- B. dendrobatidis bacterial species compared to 50% (7/14) at Catoctin Mountain Park (MP), MD, and 38% (8/21) at Mt. Rogers National Recreation Area (NRA), VA. At the individual level, salamanders at Shenandoah NP had more anti- B. dendrobatidis bacteria per individual (μ = 3.3) than those at Catoctin MP (μ = 0.8) and at Mt. Rogers NRA (μ = 0.4). All salamanders tested negative for B. dendrobatidis . Anti- B. dendrobatidis bacterial species are diverse in central Appalachian Plethodon salamanders, and their distribution varied geographically. The antifungal bacterial species that we identified may play a protective role for these salamanders.

Applied and Environmental Microbiology↗

USGS2017

Climate-mediated competition in a high-elevation salamander community

The distribution of the federally endangered Shenandoah Salamander ( Plethodon shenandoah ) is presumed to be limited by competition with the Red-backed Salamander ( Plethodon cinereus ). In particular, the current distribution of P. shenandoah is understood to be restricted to warmer and drier habitats because of interspecific interactions. These habitats may be particularly sensitive to climate change, though the influence of competition may also be affected by temperature and relative humidity. We investigated the response of P. shenandoah to competition with P. cinereus under four climate scenarios in 3-dimensional mesocosms. The results suggest that, although climate change may alleviate competitive pressure from P. cinereus , warmer temperatures may also significantly influence the persistence of the species across its known range.

Journal of Herpetology↗

USGS2017

A framework for modeling emerging diseases to inform management

The rapid emergence and reemergence of zoonotic diseases requires the ability to rapidly evaluate and implement optimal management decisions. Actions to control or mitigate the effects of emerging pathogens are commonly delayed because of uncertainty in the estimates and the predicted outcomes of the control tactics. The development of models that describe the best-known information regarding the disease system at the early stages of disease emergence is an essential step for optimal decision-making. Models can predict the potential effects of the pathogen, provide guidance for assessing the likelihood of success of different proposed management actions, quantify the uncertainty surrounding the choice of the optimal decision, and highlight critical areas for immediate research. We demonstrate how to develop models that can be used as a part of a decision-making framework to determine the likelihood of success of different management actions given current knowledge.

Emerging Infectious Diseases↗

USGS2016

Evaluating within-population variability in behavior and demography for the adaptive potential of a dispersal-limited species to climate change

Multiple pathways exist for species to respond to changing climates. However, responses of dispersal-limited species will be more strongly tied to ability to adapt within existing populations as rates of environmental change will likely exceed movement rates. Here, we assess adaptive capacity in Plethodon cinereus , a dispersal-limited woodland salamander. We quantify plasticity in behavior and variation in demography to observed variation in environmental variables over a 5-year period. We found strong evidence that temperature and rainfall influence P. cinereus surface presence, indicating changes in climate are likely to affect seasonal activity patterns. We also found that warmer summer temperatures reduced individual growth rates into the autumn, which is likely to have negative demographic consequences. Reduced growth rates may delay reproductive maturity and lead to reductions in size-specific fecundity, potentially reducing population-level persistence. To better understand within-population variability in responses, we examined differences between two common color morphs. Previous evidence suggests that the color polymorphism may be linked to physiological differences in heat and moisture tolerance. We found only moderate support for morph-specific differences for the relationship between individual growth and temperature. Measuring environmental sensitivity to climatic variability is the first step in predicting species' responses to climate change. Our results suggest phenological shifts and changes in growth rates are likely responses under scenarios where further warming occurs, and we discuss possible adaptive strategies for resulting selective pressures.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2016

Quantitative evidence for the effects of multiple drivers on continental-scale amphibian declines

Since amphibian declines were first proposed as a global phenomenon over a quarter century ago, the conservation community has made little progress in halting or reversing these trends. The early search for a “smoking gun” was replaced with the expectation that declines are caused by multiple drivers. While field observations and experiments have identified factors leading to increased local extinction risk, evidence for effects of these drivers is lacking at large spatial scales. Here, we use observations of 389 time-series of 83 species and complexes from 61 study areas across North America to test the effects of 4 of the major hypothesized drivers of declines. While we find that local amphibian populations are being lost from metapopulations at an average rate of 3.79% per year, these declines are not related to any particular threat at the continental scale; likewise the effect of each stressor is variable at regional scales. This result - that exposure to threats varies spatially, and populations vary in their response - provides little generality in the development of conservation strategies. Greater emphasis on local solutions to this globally shared phenomenon is needed.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS2016

Uncertainty in biological monitoring: a framework for data collection and analysis to account for multiple sources of sampling bias

Biological monitoring programmes are increasingly relying upon large volumes of citizen-science data to improve the scope and spatial coverage of information, challenging the scientific community to develop design and model-based approaches to improve inference. Recent statistical models in ecology have been developed to accommodate false-negative errors, although current work points to false-positive errors as equally important sources of bias. This is of particular concern for the success of any monitoring programme given that rates as small as 3% could lead to the overestimation of the occurrence of rare events by as much as 50%, and even small false-positive rates can severely bias estimates of occurrence dynamics. We present an integrated, computationally efficient Bayesian hierarchical model to correct for false-positive and false-negative errors in detection/non-detection data. Our model combines independent, auxiliary data sources with field observations to improve the estimation of false-positive rates, when a subset of field observations cannot be validated a posteriori or assumed as perfect. We evaluated the performance of the model across a range of occurrence rates, false-positive and false-negative errors, and quantity of auxiliary data. The model performed well under all simulated scenarios, and we were able to identify critical auxiliary data characteristics which resulted in improved inference. We applied our false-positive model to a large-scale, citizen-science monitoring programme for anurans in the north-eastern United States, using auxiliary data from an experiment designed to estimate false-positive error rates. Not correcting for false-positive rates resulted in biased estimates of occupancy in 4 of the 10 anuran species we analysed, leading to an overestimation of the average number of occupied survey routes by as much as 70%. The framework we present for data collection and analysis is able to efficiently provide reliable inference for occurrence patterns using data from a citizen-science monitoring programme. However, our approach is applicable to data generated by any type of research and monitoring programme, independent of skill level or scale, when effort is placed on obtaining auxiliary information on false-positive rates.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2016

Salamander chytrid fungus ( Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans ) in the United States—Developing research, monitoring, and management strategies

The recently (2013) identified pathogenic chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium salamandrivoran s ( Bsal ), poses a severe threat to the distribution and abundance of salamanders within the United States and Europe. Development of a response strategy for the potential, and likely, invasion of Bsal into the United States is crucial to protect global salamander biodiversity. A formal working group, led by Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI) scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, Fort Collins Science Center, and Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, was held at the USGS Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis in Fort Collins, Colorado, United States from June 23 to June 25, 2015, to identify crucial Bsal research and monitoring needs that could inform conservation and management strategies for salamanders in the United States. Key findings of the workshop included the following: (1) the introduction of Bsal into the United States is highly probable, if not inevitable, thus requiring development of immediate short-term and long-term intervention strategies to prevent Bsal establishment and biodiversity decline; (2) management actions targeted towards pathogen containment may be ineffective in reducing the long-term spread of Bsal throughout the United States; and (3) early detection of Bsal through surveillance at key amphibian import locations, among high-risk wild populations, and through analysis of archived samples is necessary for developing management responses. Top research priorities during the preinvasion stage included the following: (1) deployment of qualified diagnostic methods for Bsal and establishment of standardized laboratory practices, (2) assessment of susceptibility for amphibian hosts (including anurans), and (3) development and evaluation of short- and long-term pathogen intervention and management strategies. Several outcomes were achieved during the workshop, including development of an organizational structure with working groups for a Bsal Task Force, creation of an initial influence diagram to aid in identifying effective management actions in the face of uncertainty, and production of a list of potential management actions and key research uncertainties. Additional products under development include a Bsal Strategic Action plan, an emergency response plan, a monitoring and surveillance program, a standardized diagnostic approach, decision models for natural resource agencies, and a reporting database for salamander mortalities. This workshop was the first international meeting to address the threat of Bsal to salamander populations in the United States, with more than 30 participants from U.S. conservation and resource management agencies (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, U.S. Forest Service, U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. National Park Service, and Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies) and academic research institutions in Australia, the Netherlands, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2016

Spatial variation in risk and consequence of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans introduction in the USA

A newly identified fungal pathogen, Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans ( Bsal ), is responsible for mass mortality events and severe population declines in European salamanders. The eastern USA has the highest diversity of salamanders in the world and the introduction of this pathogen is likely to be devastating. Although data are inevitably limited for new pathogens, disease-risk assessments use best available data to inform management decisions. Using characteristics of Bsal ecology, spatial data on imports and pet trade establishments, and salamander species diversity, we identify high-risk areas with both a high likelihood of introduction and severe consequences for local salamanders. We predict that the Pacific coast, southern Appalachian Mountains and mid-Atlantic regions will have the highest relative risk from Bsal . Management of invasive pathogens becomes difficult once they are established in wildlife populations; therefore, import restrictions to limit pathogen introduction and early detection through surveillance of high-risk areas are priorities for preventing the next crisis for North American salamanders.

Royal Society Open Science↗

USGS2016

Spatial capture-recapture: a promising method for analyzing data collected using artificial cover objects

Spatial capture–recapture (SCR) is a relatively recent development in ecological statistics that provides a spatial context for estimating abundance and space use patterns, and improves inference about absolute population density. SCR has been applied to individual encounter data collected noninvasively using methods such as camera traps, hair snares, and scat surveys. Despite the widespread use of capture-based surveys to monitor amphibians and reptiles, there are few applications of SCR in the herpetological literature. We demonstrate the utility of the application of SCR for studies of reptiles and amphibians by analyzing capture–recapture data from Red-Backed Salamanders, Plethodon cinereus , collected using artificial cover boards. Using SCR to analyze spatial encounter histories of marked individuals, we found evidence that density differed little among four sites within the same forest (on average, 1.59 salamanders/m 2 ) and that salamander detection probability peaked in early October (Julian day 278) reflecting expected surface activity patterns of the species. The spatial scale of detectability, a measure of space use, indicates that the home range size for this population of Red-Backed Salamanders in autumn was 16.89 m 2 . Surveying reptiles and amphibians using artificial cover boards regularly generates spatial encounter history data of known individuals, which can readily be analyzed using SCR methods, providing estimates of absolute density and inference about the spatial scale of habitat use.

New York↗

USGS2016

Using spatial capture–recapture to elucidate population processes and space-use in herpetological studies

The cryptic behavior and ecology of herpetofauna make estimating the impacts of environmental change on demography difficult; yet, the ability to measure demographic relationships is essential for elucidating mechanisms leading to the population declines reported for herpetofauna worldwide. Recently developed spatial capture–recapture (SCR) methods are well suited to standard herpetofauna monitoring approaches. Individually identifying animals and their locations allows accurate estimates of population densities and survival. Spatial capture–recapture methods also allow estimation of parameters describing space-use and movement, which generally are expensive or difficult to obtain using other methods. In this paper, we discuss the basic components of SCR models, the available software for conducting analyses, and the experimental designs based on common herpetological survey methods. We then apply SCR models to Red-backed Salamander ( Plethodon cinereus ), to determine differences in density, survival, dispersal, and space-use between adult male and female salamanders. By highlighting the capabilities of SCR, and its advantages compared to traditional methods, we hope to give herpetologists the resource they need to apply SCR in their own systems.

Journal of Herpetology↗

USGS2016

Southeast regional and state trends in anuran occupancy from calling survey data (2001-2013) from the North American Amphibian Monitoring Program

We present the first regional trends in anuran occupancy for eight states of the southeastern United States, based on 13 y (2001–2013) of North American Amphibian Monitoring Program (NAAMP) data. The NAAMP is a longterm monitoring program in which observers collect anuran calling observation data at fixed locations along random roadside routes. We assessed occupancy trends for 14 species. We found weak evidence for a general regional pattern of decline in calling anurans within breeding habitats along roads in the southeastern USA over the last 13 y. Two species had positive regional trends with 95% posterior intervals that did not include zero ( Hyla cinerea and Pseudacris crucifer ). Five other species also showed an increasing trend, while eight species showed a declining trend, although 95% posterior intervals included zero. We also assessed state level trends for 107 species/state combinations. Of these, 14 showed a significant decline and 12 showed a significant increase in occupancy (i.e., credible intervals did not include zero for these 26 trends).

Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Ca↗

USGS2015

Estimating occupancy dynamics for large-scale monitoring networks: amphibian breeding occupancy across protected areas in the northeast United States

Regional monitoring strategies frequently employ a nested sampling design where a finite set of study areas from throughout a region are selected within which intensive sub-sampling occurs. This sampling protocol naturally lends itself to a hierarchical analysis to account for dependence among sub-samples. Implementing such an analysis within a classic likelihood framework is computationally prohibitive with species occurrence data when accounting for detection probabilities. Bayesian methods offer an alternative framework to make this analysis feasible. We demonstrate a general approach for estimating occupancy when data come from a nested sampling design. Using data from a regional monitoring program of wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) and spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum) in vernal pools, we analyzed data using static and dynamic occupancy frameworks. We analyzed observations from 2004-2013collected within 14 protected areas located throughout the northeast United States . We use the data set to estimate trends in occupancy at both the regional and individual protected area level. We show that occupancy at the regional level was relatively stable for both species. Much more variation occurred within individual study areas, with some populations declining and some increasing for both species. We found some evidence for a latitudinal gradient in trends among protected areas. However, support for this pattern is overestimated when the hierarchical nature of the data collection is not controlled for in the analysis. For both species, occupancy appeared to be declining in the most southern areas, while occupancy was stable or increasing in more northern areas. These results shed light on the range-level population status of these pond-breeding amphibians and our approach provides a framework that can be used to examine drivers of change including among-year and among-site variation in occurrence dynamics, while properly accounting for nested structure of data collection.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2015

Unifying research on the fragmentation of terrestrial and aquatic habitats: patches, connectivity and the matrix in riverscapes

While there is an increasing emphasis in terrestrial ecology on determining the influence of the area that surrounds habitat patches (the landscape ‘matrix’) relative to the characteristics of the patches themselves, research on these aspects in running waters is still rather underrepresented. Here we outline conceptual foundations of matrix ecology for stream and river ecosystems (‘riverscapes’). We discuss how a hierarchical, patch-based perspective is necessary for the delineation of habitat patches and the surrounding matrix, through which we may identify two classes of habitat edges in riverscapes (i.e. edges between the terrestrial–aquatic interface and edges within streams). Under this conceptual framework, we discuss the role of the matrix in influencing between-patch movement, and resource quality and quantity within and among habitat patches in riverscapes. We also review types of empirical and modelling approaches which may advance our understanding of fragmentation effects in these systems. We identify five key challenges for understanding fragmentation and matrix effects more completely: (i) defining populations and their status (i.e. quantifying the demographic contribution of habitat patches to metapopulation dynamics), (ii) scaling from metapopulations to metacommunities (particularly searching for generalities in species responses to landscape heterogeneity), (iii) scaling from metacommunities to metaecosystems (i.e. exploring the interactive role of the terrestrial–aquatic and within-stream matrix effects on the flow of material and energy at the network scale), (iv) understanding temporal dynamics in matrix permeability and (v) revealing the utility of different patch and matrix representations for modelling connectivity relationships. Fragmentation of habitats is a critical issue in the conservation and management of stream networks across spatial scales. Although the effects of individual barriers (e.g. dams) are well documented, we argue that a more comprehensive patch–matrix landscape model will improve our understanding of fragmentation effects and improve management in riverscapes.

Freshwater Biology↗

USGS2015

Performance of species occurrence estimators when basic assumptions are not met: a test using field data where true occupancy status is known

Populations are rarely censused. Instead, observations are subject to incomplete detection, misclassification and detection heterogeneity that result from human and environmental constraints. Though numerous methods have been developed to deal with observational uncertainty, validation under field conditions is rare because truth is rarely known in these cases. We present the most comprehensive test of occupancy estimation methods to date, using more than 33 000 auditory call observations collected under standard field conditions and where the true occupancy status of sites was known. Basic occupancy estimation approaches were biased when two key assumptions were not met: that no false positives occur and that no unexplained heterogeneity in detection parameters occurs. The greatest bias occurred for dynamic parameters (i.e. local colonization and extinction), and in many cases, the degree of inaccuracy would render results largely useless. We examined three approaches to increase adherence or relax these assumptions: modifying the sampling design, employing estimators that account for false-positive detections and using covariates to account for site-level heterogeneity in both false-negative and false-positive detection probabilities. We demonstrate that bias can be substantially reduced by modifications to sampling methods and by using estimators that simultaneously account for false-positive detections and site-level covariates to explain heterogeneity. Our results demonstrate that even small probabilities of misidentification and among-site detection heterogeneity can have severe effects on estimator reliability if ignored. We challenge researchers to place greater attention on both heterogeneity and false positives when designing and analysing occupancy studies. We provide 9 specific recommendations for the design, implementation and analysis of occupancy studies to better meet this challenge.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗