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Erin R Zylstra

Publications and source records attributed to Erin R Zylstra.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

Summary of available data from the monarch overwintering colonies in central Mexico, 1976–1991

Historical estimates of the area occupied by overwintering Danaus plexippus (monarchs) in central Mexico (between winters of 1976 and 1991) were published in García-Serrano and others (2004) and more recently in Mawdsley and others (2020). Our primary objectives were to identify the specific data that informed those estimates and, importantly, determine the degree to which the reported estimates reflect the total size of the overwintering monarch population during that period. Understanding how historical estimates of the overwintering area relate to total population size is necessary to ensure that inferences about population abundance and temporal trends are reliable, particularly as the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is in the process of determining if the species should be listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act.

Open-File Report

Drought-mediated extinction of an arid-land amphibian: Insights from a spatially explicit dynamic occupancy model

Understanding how natural and anthropogenic processes affect population dynamics of species with patchy distributions is critical to predicting their responses to environmental changes. Despite considerable evidence that demographic rates and dispersal patterns vary temporally in response to an array of biotic and abiotic processes, few applications of metapopulation theory have sought to explore factors that explain spatio-temporal variation in extinction or colonization rates. To facilitate exploring these factors, we extended a spatially explicit model of metapopulation dynamics to create a framework that requires only binary presence-absence data, makes few assumptions about the dispersal process, and accounts for imperfect detection. We apply this framework to 22 years of biannual survey data for lowland leopard frogs, Lithobates yavapaiensis, an amphibian that inhabits arid stream systems in the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for factors that govern temporal variation in transition probabilities, as both extinction and colonization rates varied with hydrologic conditions. Specifically, local extinctions were more frequent during drought periods, particularly at sites without reliable surface water. Colonization rates increased when larval and dispersal periods were wetter than normal, which increased the probability that potential emigrants metamorphosed and reached neighboring sites. Extirpation of frogs from one watershed during a period of severe drought demonstrated the influence of site-level features, as frogs persisted only in areas where most sites held water consistently and where the amount of sediment deposited from high-elevation wildfires was low. Application of our model provided novel insights into how climate-related processes affected the distribution and population dynamics of an arid-land amphibian. The approach we describe has application to a wide array of species that inhabit patchy environments, can improve our understanding of factors that govern metapopulation dynamics, and can inform strategies for conservation of imperiled species.

Arizona