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Erin Muths

Publications and source records attributed to Erin Muths.

17 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2023

Optimal management decisions are robust to unknown dynamics in an amphibian metapopulation plagued by disease

Identifying conservation actions to recover threatened species can be challenging due to many ecological uncertainties. For example, major threats to a species' conservation are commonly known or suspected, but the specific impacts on population or metapopulation dynamics can be uncertain. This is frequently the case with emerging infectious diseases, including chytridiomycosis, a global driver of amphibian population declines caused by the fungal pathogens Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) and Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans . While these diseases are known to cause amphibian declines and extirpations, the mechanisms of their landscape-scale spread are still largely unknown. Such uncertainty can lead to inaction which may jeopardize timely recovery of a species. Decision analysis is a pragmatic approach to making transparent and defensible decisions while dealing with uncertainties. We investigated whether optimal actions aimed at recovering boreal toad ( Anaxyrus boreas boreas ) metapopulations in the southern Rocky Mountains are robust to the unknown dynamics of Bd spread using value of information and regret analyses. Value of information is a decision-analytic tool for calculating the value of new information in terms of performance on management objectives, while regret measures the cost of acting under incorrect information. We further conducted a stochastic sensitivity analysis to identify the relative effects of metapopulation parameters on system dynamics. We found optimal actions were robust to the unknown dynamics of Bd spread. While boreal toad breeding occurrence is highly sensitive to Bd distribution, the optimal decision is not. Resolving the unknown dynamics of Bd spread would lead to a minimal gain of less than one breeding toad subpopulation at the end of 50 years, given the currently available management actions. Applying a decision-analytic framework coupled with value of information and regret analyses can help frame how uncertainties affect decisions in a way that empowers decision makers.

Animal Conservation↗
USGS2013

Trends in amphibian occupancy in the United States

Though a third of amphibian species worldwide are thought to be imperiled, existing assessments simply categorize extinction risk, providing little information on the rate of population losses. We conducted the first analysis of the rate of change in the probability that amphibians occupy ponds and other comparable habitat features across the United States. We found that overall occupancy by amphibians declined 3.7% annually from 2002 to 2011. Species that are Red-listed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) declined an average of 11.6% annually. All subsets of data examined had a declining trend including species in the IUCN Least Concern category. This analysis suggests that amphibian declines may be more widespread and severe than previously realized.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2012

The genetic structure of a relict population of wood frogs

Habitat fragmentation and the associated reduction in connectivity between habitat patches are commonly cited causes of genetic differentiation and reduced genetic variation in animal populations. We used eight microsatellite markers to investigate genetic structure and levels of genetic diversity in a relict population of wood frogs ( Lithobates sylvatica ) in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, where recent disturbances have altered hydrologic processes and fragmented amphibian habitat. We also estimated migration rates among subpopulations, tested for a pattern of isolation-by-distance, and looked for evidence of a recent population bottleneck. The results from the clustering algorithm in Program STRUCTURE indicated the population is partitioned into two genetic clusters (subpopulations), and this result was further supported by factorial component analysis. In addition, an estimate of FST (FST = 0.0675, P value \0.0001) supported the genetic differentiation of the two clusters. Estimates of migration rates among the two subpopulations were low, as were estimates of genetic variability. Conservation of the population of wood frogs may be improved by increasing the spatial distribution of the population and improving gene flow between the subpopulations. Construction or restoration of wetlands in the landscape between the clusters has the potential to address each of these objectives.

Colorado↗
USGS2012

The importance of local and landscape-scale processes to the occupancy of wetlands by pond-breeding amphibians

Variation in the distribution and abundance of species across landscapes has traditionally been attributed to processes operating at fine spatial scales (i.e., environmental conditions at the scale of the sampling unit), but processes that operate across larger spatial scales such as seasonal migration or dispersal are also important. To determine the relative importance of these processes, we evaluated hypothesized relationships between the probability of occupancy in wetlands by two amphibians [wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) and boreal chorus frogs (Pseudacris maculata)] and attributes of the landscape measured at three spatial scales in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. We used cost-based buffers and least-cost distances to derive estimates of landscape attributes that may affect occupancy patterns from the broader spatial scales. The most highly ranked models provide strong support for a positive relationship between occupancy by breeding wood frogs and the amount of streamside habitat adjacent to a wetland. The model selection results for boreal chorus frogs are highly uncertain, though several of the most highly ranked models indicate a positive association between occupancy and the number of neighboring, occupied wetlands. We found little evidence that occupancy of either species was correlated with local-scale attributes measured at the scale of individual wetlands, suggesting that processes operating at broader scales may be more important in influencing occupancy patterns in amphibian populations.

Colorado↗
USGS2012

Effects of hydroperiod duration on survival, developmental rate, and size at metamorphosis in boreal chorus frog tadpoles ( Pseudacris maculata )

Understanding the relationship between climate-driven habitat conditions and survival is key to preserving biodiversity in the face of rapid climate change. Hydroperiod—the length of time water is in a wetland—is a critical limiting habitat variable for amphibians as larvae must metamorphose before ponds dry. Changes in precipitation and temperature patterns are affecting hydroperiod globally, but the impact of these changes on amphibian persistence is poorly understood. We studied the responses of Boreal Chorus Frog ( Pseudacris maculata ) tadpoles to simulated hydroperiods (i.e., water level reductions) in the laboratory using individuals collected from ponds spanning a range of natural hydroperiods (Colorado Front Range, USA). To assess the effects of experimental hydroperiod reduction, we measured mortality, time to metamorphosis, and size at metamorphosis. We found that tadpoles grew at rates reflecting the hydroperiods of their native ponds, regardless of experimental treatment. Tadpoles from permanent ponds metamorphosed faster than those from ephemeral ponds across all experimental treatments, a pattern which may represent a predation selection gradient or countergradient variation in developmental rates. Size at metamorphosis did not vary across experimental treatments. Mortality was low overall but varied with pond of origin. Our results suggest that adaptation to local hydroperiod and/or predation and temperature conditions is important in P. maculata . Moreover, the lack of a plastic response to reduced hydroperiods suggests that P. maculata may not be able to metamorphose quickly enough to escape drying ponds. These results have important implications for amphibian persistence in ponds predicted to dry more quickly due to rapid climate change.

Herpetologica↗
USGS2012

Blackrock: biological hotspot and hotbed of collaboration

Amphibian decline is a problem of global importance, with over 40 percent of species considered at risk. This phenomenon is not limited to the tropics or to other countries; amphibian species in the United States are also declining, contributing to the larger global phenomenon. For example, in Wyoming, the Wyoming toad has been extirpated in the wild and the boreal toad is a species of special concern. Habitat loss (especially of wetlands) and disease are two examples of perturbations contributing to amphibian decline. Wetlands harbor a variety of wildlife from large ungulates to amphibians the size of a U.S. quarter. Because many amphibians depend on wetlands for breeding, feeding, and rearing young, the availability of wetlands is important to maintaining amphibian diversity and presence across suitable habitat.

Report↗
USGS2011

Breeding chorus indices are weakly related to estimated abundance of Boreal Chorus Frogs

Call surveys used to monitor breeding choruses of anuran amphibians generate index values that are frequently used to represent the number of male frogs present, but few studies have quantified this relationship. We compared abundance of male Boreal Chorus Frogs ( Pseudacris maculata ), estimated using capture–recapture methods in two populations in Colorado, to call index values derived from automated recordings. Single index values, such as might result from large monitoring efforts, were unrelated to population size. A synthetic call saturation index (CSI), the daily proportion of the maximum possible sum of index values derived from multiple recordings, was greater in larger populations, but the relationship was not highly predictive.

Colorado↗
USGS2011

Portrait of a small population of boreal toads ( Anaxyrus boreas )

Much attention has been given to the conservation of small populations, those that are small because of decline, and those that are naturally small. Small populations are of particular interest because ecological theory suggests that they are vulnerable to the deleterious effects of environmental, demographic, and genetic stochasticity as well as natural and human-induced catastrophes. However, testing theory and developing applicable conservation measures for small populations is hampered by sparse data. This lack of information is frequently driven by computational issues with small data sets that can be confounded by the impacts of stressors. We present estimates of demographic parameters from a small population of Boreal Toads (Anaxyrus boreas) that has been surveyed since 2001 by using capture-recapture methods. Estimates of annual adult survival probability are high relative to other Boreal Toad populations, whereas estimates of recruitment rate are low. Despite using simple models, clear patterns emerged from the analyses, suggesting that population size is constrained by low recruitment of adults and is declining slowly. These patterns provide insights that are useful in developing management directions for this small population, and this study serves as an example of the potential for small populations to yield robust and useful information despite sample size constraints.

Herpetologica↗
USGS2009

How relevant is opportunistic Bd sampling: Are we ready for the big picture?

Understanding the distribution of chytridiomycosis, both at global and local scales, is important to controlling its impacts on host species (e.g., biocontrol or eradication) and to managing host amphibian populations (e.g., reintroduction and habitat management). In response to this, efforts to map observations of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) are underway to better understand its distribution and impact on amphibian populations (e.g., www.spatialepidemiology.net/Bd).

Herpetological Review↗
USGS2006

The Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI): 5-year report

The Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI) is an innovative, multidisciplinary program that began in 2000 in response to a congressional directive for the Department of the Interior to address the issue of amphibian declines in the United States. ARMI’s formulation was cross-disciplinary, integrating U.S. Geological Survey scientists from Biology, Water, and Geography to develop a course of action (Corn and others, 2005a). The result has been an effective program with diverse, yet complementary, expertise. ARMI’s approach to research and monitoring is multiscale. Detailed investigations focus on a few species at selected local sites throughout the country; monitoring addresses a larger number of species over broader areas (typically, National Parks and National Wildlife Refuges); and inventories to document species occurrence are conducted more extensively across the landscape. Where monitoring is conducted, the emphasis is on an ability to draw statistically defensible conclusions about the status of amphibians. To achieve this objective, ARMI has instituted a monitoring response variable that has nationwide applicability. At research sites, ARMI focuses on studying species/environment interactions, determining causes of observed declines, and developing new techniques to sample populations and analyze data. Results from activities at all scales are provided to scientists, land managers, and policymakers, as appropriate. The ARMI program and the scientists involved contribute significantly to understanding amphibian declines at local, regional, national, and international levels. Within National Parks and National Wildlife Refuges, findings help land managers make decisions applicable to amphibian conservation. For example, the National Park Service (NPS) selected amphibians as a vital sign for several of their monitoring networks, and ARMI scientists provide information and assistance in developing monitoring methods for this NPS effort. At the national level, ARMI has had major exposure at a variety of meetings, including a dedicated symposium at the 2004 joint meetings of the Herpetologists’ League, the American Society of Ichthyologists and Herpetologists, and the Society for the Study of Amphibians and Reptiles. Several principal investigators have brought international exposure to ARMI through venues such as the World Congress of Herpetology in South Africa in 2005 (invited presentation by Dr. Gary Fellers), the Global Amphibian Summit, sponsored by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and Wildlife Conservation International, in Washington, D.C., 2005 (invited participation by Dr. P.S. Corn), and a special issue of the international herpetological journal Alytes focused on ARMI in 2004 (edited by Dr. C.K. Dodd, Jr.). ARMI research and monitoring efforts have addressed at least 7 of the 21 Threatened and Endangered Species listed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (California red-legged frog [Rana draytonii], Chiricahua leopard frog [R. chiricahuensis], arroyo toad [Bufo californicus], dusky gopher frog [Rana sevosa], mountain yellow-legged frog [R. muscosa], flatwoods salamander [Ambystoma cingulatum], and the golden coqui [Eleutherodactylus jasperi]), and 9 additional species of concern recognized by the IUCN. ARMI investigations have addressed time-sensitive research, such as emerging infectious diseases and effects on amphibians related to natural disasters like wildfire, hurricanes, and debris flows, and the effects of more constant, environmental change, like urban expansion, road development, and the use of pesticides. Over the last 5 years, ARMI has partnered with an extensive list of government, academic, and private entities. These partnerships have been fruitful and have assisted ARMI in developing new field protocols and analytic tools, in using and refining emerging technologies to improve accuracy and efficiency of data handling, in conducting amphibian disease, malformation, and environmental effects research, and in implementing a network of monitoring and research sites. Accomplishments from these endeavors include more than 40 publications on amphibian status and trends, nearly 100 publications on amphibian ecology and causes of declines, and over 30 methodological publications. Several databases have emerged as a result of ARMI and its partnerships; one, a digital atlas of ranges for all U.S. amphibian species, was used by the IUCN to display amphibian distribution maps in the Global Amphibian Assessment Project. Given the scope of ARMI and the panoply of projects, findings have had implications for policy. Investigations that demonstrate amphibian declines or illuminate causes of declines provide valuable information about habitat management, environmental effects, mechanisms for the spread of disease, and human/amphibian interfaces. This information has been made available to land managers, scientists, educators, Congress and other policymakers, and the public. The support afforded ARMI by Congress has been influential in the program’s development and success. The value of ARMI’s efforts will continue to increase as we are able to extend our studies spatially and temporally to answer critical questions with more confidence. We are using ARMI’s resources efficiently and continuing to develop innovative mechanisms for leveraging resources for maximum effectiveness during challenging financial times. This report is a 5-year retrospective of the structure, methodology, progress, and contributions to the broader scientific community that have resulted from this national USGS program. We evaluate ARMI’s success to date, with regard to the challenges faced by the program and the strengths that have emerged. We chart objectives for the next 5 years that build on current accomplishments, highlight areas meriting further research, and direct efforts to overcome existing weaknesses.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2005

Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI): A successful start to a national program in the United States

Most research to assess amphibian declines has focused on local-scale projects on one or a few species. The Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI) is a national program in the United States mandated by congressional directive and implemented by the U.S. Department of the Interior (specifically the U.S. Geological Survey, USGS). Program goals are to monitor changes in populations of amphibians across U.S. Department of the Interior lands and to address research questions related to amphibian declines using a hierarchical framework of base-, mid- and apex-level monitoring sites. ARMI is currently monitoring 83 amphibian species (29% of species in the U.S.) at mid- and apex-level areas. We chart the progress of this 5-year-old program and provide an example of mid-level monitoring from 1 of the 7 ARMI regions.

Applied Herpetology↗
USGS2004

Variable breeding phenology affects the exposure of amphibian embryos to ultraviolet radiation: Reply

Corn and Muths (2002) describe how seasonal and annual variation in estimated flux of ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation, combined with year-to-year variation in amphibian breeding, phenology, introduces considerable variability in the UV-B exposures to amphibians. The response to our paper by Blaustein et al. (2004) misstates the objective and conclusions of our study, contains other errors of interpretation, and critiques our study for adopting practices that they themselves use. We are confident that an unbiased assessment will show that the conclusions of Corn and Muths (2002) are valid and robust with respect to montane amphibians, and that the criticisms raised by Blaustein et al. (2004) are either invalid or irrelevant.

Ecology↗
USGS2003

Evidence of disease-related amphibian decline in Colorado

The recent discovery of a pathogenic fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) associated with declines of frogs in the American and Australian tropics, suggests that at least the proximate cause, may be known for many previously unexplained amphibian declines. We have monitored boreal toads in Colorado since 1991 at four sites using capturea??recapture of adults and counts of egg masses to examine the dynamics of this metapopulation. Numbers of male toads declined in 1996 and 1999 with annual survival rate averaging 78% from 1991 to 1994, 45% in 1995 and 3% between 1998 and 1999. Numbers of egg masses also declined. An etiological diagnosis of chytridiomycosis consistent with infections by the genus Batrachochytrium was made in six wild adult toads. Characteristic histomorphological features (i.e. intracellular location, shape of thalli, presence of discharge tubes and rhizoids) of chytrid organisms, and host tissue response (acanthosis and hyperkeratosis) were observed in individual toads. These characteristics were indistinguishable from previously reported mortality events associated with chytrid fungus. We also observed epizootiological features consistent with mortality events associated with chytrid fungus: an increase in the ratio of female:male toads captured, an apparent spread of mortalities within the metapopulation and mortalities restricted to post metamorphic animals. Eleven years of population data suggest that this metapopulation of toads is in danger of extinction, pathological and epizootiological evidence indicates that B. dendrobatidis has played a proximate role in this process

Colorado↗
USGS2001

Toward assessing the effects of bank stabilization activities on wildlife communities of the upper Yellowstone River, U.S.A

The upper Yellowstone River has been subject to multiple bank stabilization projects between Gardiner and Springdale, Montana, over the last 20 years. Additional channel modification activities are likely on the Yellowstone, and there is concern over the short- and long-term cumulative effects of channel modification activities on physical processes and dynamics of the river, associated riparian vegetation, and fish and wildlife resources that depend on the river. This document represents a first step toward conservation of the riparian vertebrate community on the upper Yellowstone River, with expected changes due to bank stabilization activities. Conservation strategies should be based on the life histocy attributes of the species of interest and the expected landscape changes for a specific geographic region. In this document, species accounts summarize the distribution, abundance, life histories, and habitat associations of 69 bird species, 4 amphibian species, 5 reptile species, and 9 species of mammals known or assumed to occur in the study area, including 38 species designated as species of interest. A matrix is presented to assist managers in evaluating the degree to which a species may be negatively affected by riverbank stabilization activities. The degree of vulnerability of birds to bank stabilization activities and changes in stream flow is strongly related to the degree to which the species is tied to riparian habitats. Of birds, the 13 species that are riparian obligates are the most vulnerable to bank stabilization activities. Belted Kingfishers would suffer if fish populations decline. Harlequin Ducks, Spotted Sandpipers, and American Dippers would be negatively influenced by changes in stream and bank morphology, especially the loss of shallow water and braided channels. Willow Flycatchers, Redeyed Vireos, Yellow Warblers, American Redstarts, Northern Waterthrushes, Common Yellowthroats, Wilson's Warblers, Song Sparrows, and Lincoln's Sparrows would be negatively affected if stream flow changes resulted in eventual reductions in the extent of shrub understocy. Species that are affected by changes in fish populations and stream morphology would suffer more rapid changes than species affected primarily by changes in riparian vegetation (either understory or trees), which would occur over a much longer period of time. Four amphibian species, three reptile species, and one mammal species are highly vulnerable to bank stabilization activities. Tiger salamanders, boreal toads, western chorus frogs, spotted frogs, rubber boas, racers, western garter snakes, and water shrews are expected to respond primarily to alterations in stream and bank morphology and the loss of still water for amphibian breeding.

Montana, Wyoming↗