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Erin L. Muths

Publications and source records attributed to Erin L. Muths.

108 records · Page 6Linked to original sources
USGS2015

Spatial occupancy models for predicting metapopulation dynamics and viability following reintroduction

The reintroduction of a species into its historic range is a critical component of conservation programmes designed to restore extirpated metapopulations. However, many reintroduction efforts fail, and the lack of rigorous monitoring programmes and statistical models have prevented a general understanding of the factors affecting metapopulation viability following reintroduction. Spatially explicit metapopulation theory provides the basis for understanding the dynamics of fragmented populations linked by dispersal, but the theory has rarely been used to guide reintroduction programmes because most spatial metapopulation models require presence&ndash;absence data from every site in the network, and they do not allow for observation error such as imperfect detection. We develop a spatial occupancy model that relaxes these restrictive assumptions and allows for inference about metapopulation extinction risk and connectivity. We demonstrate the utility of the model using six years of data on the Chiricahua leopard frog Lithobates chiricahuensis , a threatened desert-breeding amphibian that was reintroduced to a network of sites in Arizona USA in 2003. Our results indicate that the model can generate precise predictions of extinction risk and produce connectivity maps that can guide conservation efforts following reintroduction. In the case of L. chiricahuensis , many sites were functionally isolated, and 82% of sites were characterized by intermittent water availability and high local extinction probabilities (0&middot;84, 95% CI: 0&middot;64&ndash;0&middot;99). However, under the current hydrological conditions and spatial arrangement of sites, the risk of metapopulation extinction is estimated to be <3% over a 50-year time horizon. Low metapopulation extinction risk appears to result from the high dispersal capability of the species, the high density of sites in the region and the existence of predator-free permanent wetlands with low local extinction probabilities. Should management be required, extinction risk can be reduced by either increasing the hydroperiod of existing sites or by creating new sites to increase connectivity. Synthesis and applications . This work demonstrates how spatio-temporal statistical models based on ecological theory can be applied to forecast the outcomes of conservation actions such as reintroduction. Our spatial occupancy model should be particularly useful when management agencies lack the funds to collect intensive individual-level data.

Arizona, New Mexico↗
USGS2015

Trends in Rocky Mountain amphibians and the role of beaver as a keystone species

Despite prevalent awareness of global amphibian declines, there is still little information on trends for many widespread species. To inform land managers of trends on protected landscapes and identify potential conservation strategies, we collected occurrence data for five wetland-breeding amphibian species in four national parks in the U.S. Rocky Mountains during 2002&ndash;2011. We used explicit dynamics models to estimate variation in annual occupancy, extinction, and colonization of wetlands according to summer drought and several biophysical characteristics (e.g., wetland size, elevation), including the influence of North American beaver ( Castor canadensis ). We found more declines in occupancy than increases, especially in Yellowstone and Grand Teton national parks (NP), where three of four species declined since 2002. However, most species in Rocky Mountain NP were too rare to include in our analysis, which likely reflects significant historical declines. Although beaver were uncommon, their creation or modification of wetlands was associated with higher colonization rates for 4 of 5 amphibian species, producing a 34% increase in occupancy in beaver-influenced wetlands compared to wetlands without beaver influence. Also, colonization rates and occupancy of boreal toads ( Anaxyrus boreas ) and Columbia spotted frogs ( Rana luteiventris ) were ⩾2 times higher in beaver-influenced wetlands. These strong relationships suggest management for beaver that fosters amphibian recovery could counter declines in some areas. Our data reinforce reports of widespread declines of formerly and currently common species, even in areas assumed to be protected from most forms of human disturbance, and demonstrate the close ecological association between beaver and wetland-dependent species.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2015

Pesticide concentrations in frog tissue and wetland habitats in alandscape dominated by agriculture

Habitat loss and exposure to pesticides are likely primary factors contributing to amphibian decline in agricultural landscapes. Conservation efforts have attempted to restore wetlands lost through landscape modifications to reduce contaminant loads in surface waters and providing quality habitat to wildlife. The benefits of this increased wetland area, perhaps especially for amphibians, may be negated if habitat quality is insufficient to support persistent populations. We examined the presence of pesticides and nutrients in water and sediment as indicators of habitat quality and assessed the bioaccumulation of pesticides in the tissue of two native amphibian species Pseudacris maculata (chorus frogs) and Lithobates pipiens (leopard frogs) at six wetlands (3 restored and 3 reference) in Iowa, USA. Restored wetlands are positioned on the landscape to receive subsurface tile drainage water while reference wetlands receive water from overland run-off and shallow groundwater sources. Concentrations of the pesticides frequently detected in water and sediment samples were not different between wetland types. The median concentration of atrazine in surface water was 0.2 &mu;g/L. Reproductive abnormalities in leopard frogs have been observed in other studies at these concentrations. Nutrient concentrations were higher in the restored wetlands but lower than concentrations thought lethal to frogs. Complex mixtures of pesticides including up to 8 fungicides, some previously unreported in tissue, were detected with concentrations ranging from 0.08 to 1500 &mu;g/kg wet weight. No significant differences in pesticide concentrations were observed between species, although concentrations tended to be higher in leopard frogs compared to chorus frogs, possibly because of differences in life histories. Our results provide information on habitat quality in restored wetlands that will assist state and federal agencies, landowners, and resource managers in identifying and implementing conservation and management actions for these and similar wetlands in agriculturally dominated landscapes.

Iowa↗
USGS2014

Animal reintroductions: an innovative assessment of survival

Quantitative evaluations of reintroductions are infrequent and assessments of milestones reached before a project is completed, or abandoned due to lack of funding, are rare. However, such assessments, which are promoted in adaptive management frameworks, are critical. Quantification can provide defensible estimates of biological success, such as the number of survivors from a released cohort, with associated cost per animal. It is unlikely that the global issues of endangered wildlife and population declines will abate, therefore, assurance colonies and reintroductions are likely to become more common. If such endeavors are to be successful biologically or achieve adequate funding, implementation must be more rigorous and accountable. We use a novel application of a multistate, robust design capture-recapture model to estimate survival of reintroduced tadpoles through metamorphosis (i.e., the number of individuals emerging from the pond) and thereby provide a quantitative measure of effort and success for an "in progress" reintroduction of toads. Our data also suggest that tadpoles released at later developmental stages have an increased probability of survival and that eggs laid in the wild hatched at higher rates than eggs laid by captive toads. We illustrate how an interim assessment can identify problems, highlight successes, and provide information for use in adjusting the effort or implementing a Decision-Theoretic adaptive management strategy.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2014

The effects of hydropattern and predator communities on amphibian occupancy

Complex, interactive ecological constraints regulate species distributions, and understanding these factors is crucial for predicting species persistence. We used occupancy analysis, which corrects for imperfect detection, to test the importance of abiotic and biotic habitat and landscape factors on probability of occupancy by Boreal Chorus Frog ( Pseudacris maculata (Agassiz, 1850)) tadpoles. We hypothesized that hydropattern and predators are primarily important because they affect desiccation and predation risk and can interact in ways difficult to predict. We surveyed 62 wetland sites across an elevational gradient in Colorado, USA, and modeled patterns in P. maculata occupancy. Tadpoles were most frequently present in intermediate-length hydropattern systems with lower desiccation risk and no predatory fish because of occasional drying. Pseudacris maculata occupancy had a strong negative relationship with fish presence, while tadpoles, odonate larvae, and Barred Tiger Salamanders ( Ambystoma mavortium mavortium Baird, 1850) frequently co-occurred. Dry seasonal conditions will likely result in fewer intermediate-length hydropattern ponds available for amphibian breeding. We hypothesize that this will force P. maculata to breed in habitats with fish. As habitats shrink, predators that co-occur with P. maculata are expected to concentrate in the remaining habitat and increase predation risk for developing tadpoles (assuming predators are similarly constricted in their habitat use as amphibians are).

Colorado↗
USGS2014

Demography of common toads after local extirpation of co-occurring midwife toads

Estimating demographic parameters like survival or recruitment provides insight into the state and trajectory of populations, but understanding the contexts influencing those parameters, including both biotic and abiotic factors, is particularly important for management and conservation. At a high elevation national park in Central Spain, common toads ( Bufo bufo ) are apparently taking advantage of the near-extirpation of the midwife toad ( Alytes obstetricans ), as colonization into new breeding ponds is evident. Within this scenario, we expected demographic parameters of common toad populations tobe affected favorably by the putative release from competition. However, we found the population growth rate was negative in 4 of 5 years at the long-standing population; survival probability at the long-standing population and newly-colonised breeding ponds was lower than reported for other toads living at high elevations and the probability of recruitment was inadequate to compensate for the survival rate in maintaining a positive trajectory for either of the breeding ponds. We assessed weather covariates and disease for their contribution to the context that may be limiting the common toad&rsquo;s successful use of the niche vacated by the midwife toad.

Amphibia-Reptilia↗
USGS2014

Prevalence of the amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) at Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge, Arizona, USA

Information on disease presence can be of use to natural resource managers, especially in areas supporting threatened and endangered species that occur coincidentally with species that are suspected vectors for disease. Ad hoc reports may be of limited utility (Muths et al. 2009), but a general sense of pathogen presence (or absence) can inform management directed at T&E species, especially in regions where disease is suspected to have caused population declines (Bradley et al. 2002). The Chiricahua Leopard Frog (Lithobates chiricahuensis), a species susceptible to infection by the amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Bd) (Bradley et al. 2002), and the non-native, invasive American Bullfrog (L. catesbeianus), a suspected vector for chytridiomycosis (Schloegel et al. 2012, Gervasi et al. 2013), both occur at Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge (BANWR) and surrounding lands in southern Arizona. Efforts to eradicate the bullfrog from BANWR began in 1997 (Suhre, 2010). Eradication from the southern portion of BANWR was successful by 2008 but the bullfrog remains present at the Arivaca Cienega and in areas immediately adjacent to the refuge (Fig. 1). Curtailing the re-invasion of the bullfrog into BANWR will require vigilance as to ensure the health of Chiricahua Leopard Frog populations.

Arizona↗
USGS2013

Factors influencing survival and mark retention in postmetamorphic boreal chorus frogs

The ability to track individual animals is crucial in many field studies and often requires applying marks to captured individuals. Toe clipping has historically been a standard marking method for wild amphibian populations, but more recent marking methods include visual implant elastomer and photo identification. Unfortunately, few studies have investigated the influence and effectiveness of marking methods for recently metamorphosed individuals and as a result little is known about this life-history phase for most amphibians. Our focus was to explore survival probabilities, mark retention, and mark migration in postmetamorphic Boreal Chorus Frogs ( Psuedacris maculata ) in a laboratory setting. One hundred forty-seven individuals were assigned randomly to two treatment groups or a control group. Frogs in the first treatment group were marked with visual implant elastomer, while frogs in the second treatment group were toe clipped. Growth and mortality were recorded for one year and resulting data were analyzed using known-fate models in Program MARK. Model selection results suggested that survival probabilities of frogs varied with time and showed some variation among marking treatments. We found that frogs with multiple toes clipped on the same foot had lower survival probabilities than individuals in other treatments, but individuals can be marked by clipping a single toe on two different feet without any mark loss or negative survival effects. Individuals treated with visual implant elastomer had a mark migration rate of 4% and mark loss rate of 6%, and also showed very little negative survival impacts relative to control individuals.

Copeia↗
USGS2011

Mitigating amphibian disease: strategies to maintain wild populations and control chytridiomycosis

Background Rescuing amphibian diversity is an achievable conservation challenge. Disease mitigation is one essential component of population management. Here we assess existing disease mitigation strategies, some in early experimental stages, which focus on the globally emerging chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis . We discuss the precedent for each strategy in systems ranging from agriculture to human medicine, and the outlook for each strategy in terms of research needs and long-term potential. Results We find that the effects of exposure to Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis occur on a spectrum from transient commensal to lethal pathogen. Management priorities are divided between (1) halting pathogen spread and developing survival assurance colonies, and (2) prophylactic or remedial disease treatment. Epidemiological models of chytridiomycosis suggest that mitigation strategies can control disease without eliminating the pathogen. Ecological ethics guide wildlife disease research, but several ethical questions remain for managing disease in the field. Conclusions Because sustainable conservation of amphibians in nature is dependent on long-term population persistence and co-evolution with potentially lethal pathogens, we suggest that disease mitigation not focus exclusively on the elimination or containment of the pathogen, or on the captive breeding of amphibian hosts. Rather, successful disease mitigation must be context specific with epidemiologically informed strategies to manage already infected populations by decreasing pathogenicity and host susceptibility. We propose population level treatments based on three steps: first, identify mechanisms of disease suppression; second, parameterize epizootiological models of disease and population dynamics for testing under semi-natural conditions; and third, begin a process of adaptive management in field trials with natural populations.

Frontiers in Zoology↗
USGS2011

Long-term observations of Boreal Toads at an ARMI apex site

The U.S. Geological Survey’s Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI) is a national project with goals to monitor the status and trends of amphibians, conduct research on causes of declines, and provide information and support to management agencies for conservation of amphibian populations. ARMI activities are organized around extensive inventories and place-based monitoring (such as collaboration with the Greater Yellowstone Inventory and Monitoring Network), and intensive population studies and research at selected locations (apex sites). One such site is an oxbow pond on the Buffalo Fork near the Black Rock Ranger Station east of Grand Teton National Park. We have been conducting mark-recapture of boreal toads (Anaxyrus boreas) at Black Rock since 2002. In concert with studies of other toad populations in the Rocky Mountains, we have documented a high rate of incidence of the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) and a negative rate of growth of the toad population, but not the population crash or extinction observed in other populations with high prevalence of Bd. Long-term observations at other ARMI apex sites have proven invaluable for studying effects of climate change on amphibian behavior, and the Black Rock site has been upgraded with onsite recording of weather data and auditory monitoring of other amphibian species. Continued research at Black Rock will be critical for understanding the interrelated effects of climate and disease on amphibians in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2010

Unbiased survival estimates and evidence for skipped breeding opportunities in females

1. &ensp;Estimates of demographic parameters for females, in many organisms, are sparse. This is particularly worrisome as more and more species are faced with high extinction probabilities and conservation increasingly depends on actions dictated by complex predictive models that require accurate estimates of demographic parameters for each sex and species. 2. &ensp;This study assesses demographic parameters, specifically temporary emigration and survival, for females, a class that has been difficult to investigate historically because of lack of data. Amphibians provide a particularly good example because there is global concern about amphibian decline; yet most demographic parameter estimates are based on data from males, which we show can lead to erroneous conclusions. 3. &ensp;We use 10 years of capture&ndash;recapture data from boreal toads ( Bufo boreas ) and the multi-state open robust design model to provide evidence for the occurrence of skipped breeding opportunities (i.e. temporary emigration) in females. This is the first time that the open robust design model has been applied to an analysis of an amphibian population that we are aware of. 4. &ensp;We determined that the transition from breeder to non-breeder is obligate and the probability of a non-breeder remaining a non-breeder is 64%; thus, temporary emigration is first-order Markovian in nature, where breeding probability is dependent on the previous year&rsquo;s activity, i.e. if a female did not breed in year one, there is a 36% chance that she will breed in year two. With temporary emigration accounted for, we estimated between-year female survival at 87%. 5. &ensp;Establishing the occurrence of temporary emigration not only reduces bias in estimates of survival probabilities but also provides information about expected breeding attempts by females, a critical element in understanding the ecology of an organism and the impacts of outside stressors and conservation actions.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2007

Blue jays nest in an unusual structure

We describe a successful Blue Jay ( Cyanocitta cristata ) nest in an unusual structure on the side of a building. The nest was located near the edge of the species' range along the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains in Colorado. The nest was completely obvious, suggesting that the structure itself provided adequate cover and sercurity for the jays. Blue Jays appear to be declining in some areas of the United States such as the Southeast. Structures such as the one we describe may be more useful in attracting Blue Jays than the nesting platforms available commercially.

The Passenger Pigeon↗
USGS2005

An evaluation of weather and disease as causes of decline in two populations of boreal toads

Two populations of boreal toads ( Bufo boreas ) experienced drastic declines in abundance in the late 1990s. Evidence supported the hypothesis of disease (the chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ) as the cause of these declines, but other hypotheses had not been evaluated. We used an 11-year capture–recapture data set to evaluate weather and disease as causes of these declines. We developed sets of mathematical models that reflected hypothesized relationships between several weather variables and annual survival rates of adult males in these populations. In addition, models that reflected the possibility that the declines were caused by an introduced fungus were developed. All models were fit to the data and were evaluated using a model selection criterion (QAIC c ). Our analysis provided strong support for the hypothesis of an introduced fungus and little support for the hypothesis that weather conditions caused the declines. Our results also suggest a strong, negative “marking effect” on survival rates of boreal toads. Model-averaged estimates of survival rate are presented.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2001

The interplay of habitat change, human disturbance and species interactions in a waterbird colony

Potential responses to human disturbance at breeding colonies of waterbirds include reproductive failure, population declines and displacement from activity areas. Several additional factors, including species interactions and environmental change, can either mask or intensify the effects of human activity. This study highlights the importance of considering these factors in concert with breeding biology when assessing the impacts of human disturbance on wildlife. We studied the effects of a Wildlife Viewing Area (WVA) at Chatfield State Recreation Area, Colorado, on a nesting colony of great blue herons ( Ardea herodias ) and double-crested cormorants ( Phalacrocorax auritus ). We stratified the colony's nest trees into near, middle and far areas relative to distances from the WVA and compared the distribution of nests, nesting and fledging success and breeding chronology among areas 2 y before and 2 y after construction of the WVA. We also evaluated whether adult nest attendance patterns and chick behavior differed relative to distance from the WVA. The number of active heron nests and nest success of herons declined during the study, but evidence that these declines were due solely to human disturbance is equivocal. These changes were most likely due to the interplay of habitat changes (loss of 14 of 31 original nest trees by windfall), acquisition of heron nests by cormorants and human disturbance. We found no evidence that cormorants were adversely affected by the WVA in distribution of nests, nesting and fledging success, breeding chronology, adult nest attendance or chick behaviors. Habitat changes and adverse weather contributed to nesting failures of cormorants.

American Midland Naturalist↗
USGS1997

Survey and assessment of amphibian populations in Rocky Mountain National Park

We conducted surveys in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado for amphibians in 1987-1994. Four species, Ambystoma tigrinum, Bufo boreas, Pseudacris maculata, and Rana sylvatica , were recorded. Pseudacris maculata was the most widely distributed and abundant species in the Park. Two populations of E maculata were estimated to contain 161 and 136 breeding males in 1988. There was no evidence of a decline of A. tigrinum or R. sylvatica , but these species were found at relatively few locations. We did not detect Rana pipiens , which had been known previously from 3 locations in the Park. We found 7 breeding populations of B. boreas , which has declined recently elsewhere in the southern Rocky Mountains, but all but 2 of these populations were small and may not reproduce annually. At least one of these small populations is thought to have been extirpated. Estimated numbers of males in the 2 large populations, which are 6.4 km apart in the same drainage, were stable or increasing slightly from 1992 to 1995, averaging 189 and 239 individuals. Current and known locations of amphibians did not differ in elevation, size, lake type, presence of shallow water or emergent vegetation on the north shore, or presence of trout. Water chemistry at amphibian breeding sites was variable, but pH decreased significantly with increasing elevation. Causes of declines of B. boreas and R. pipiens are not known. Populations of B. boreas in the North Fork of the Big Thompson River are critically important to the conservation of this species in the Rocky Mountains.

Colorado↗