Geology topics

Erin E. Posthumus

Publications and source records attributed to Erin E. Posthumus.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2024

Partly cloudy with a chance of mosquitoes: Developing a flexible approach to forecasting mosquito populations

Climate-induced shifts in mosquito phenology and population structure have important implications for the health of humans and wildlife. The timing and intensity of mosquito interactions with infected and susceptible hosts are a primary determinant of vector-borne disease dynamics. Like most ectotherms, rates of mosquito development and corresponding phenological patterns are expected to change under shifting climates. However, developing accurate forecast of mosquito phenology under climate change that can be used to inform management programs remains challenging despite an abundance of available data. As climate change will have variable effects on mosquito demography and phenology across species it is vital that we identify associated traits which may explain the observed variation. Here, we review a suite of modeling approaches that could be applied to generate forecasts of mosquito activity under climate change and evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the different approaches. We describe four primary life-history and physiological traits that can be used to constrain models and demonstrate how this prior information can be harnessed to develop a more general understanding of how mosquito activity will shift under changing climates. Combining a trait-based approach with appropriate modeling techniques can allow for the development of actionable, flexible, and multi-scale forecasts of mosquito population dynamics and phenology for diverse stakeholders.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗

USGS2023

Lessons learned in knowledge co-production for climate-smart decision-making

Knowledge co-production, a process that involves both creators and users of information in knowledge generation, is growing in popularity in the conservation and ecology fields. While examples of successful co-production are becoming more common, many barriers and challenges remain in this work. Here, we reflect on our experiences in knowledge co-production from three recent case studies, using a prominent framework to understand and improve our efforts at each phase of the co-production process. Our reflections yield insights that may help other scientists seeking to support decision-making. We found that paying particular attention to the composition of the team and connecting with agency representatives early and often are key to success. Long-term commitment to the project and the people involved are also key. We conclude with suggestions for refining the framework to incorporate our primary lessons learned and include the valuation of a plurality of knowledge systems and empowerment as an ultimate impact of knowledge co-production.

Environmental Science and Policy↗

USGS2020

Nature’s Notebook-A tool for recording the timing of seasonal activity of plants and animals

Nature's Notebook is a customizable program used by individual observers and Federal Government partners to document patterns in phenology—the timing of seasonal activity of plants and animals over the course of the calendar year. The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) established Nature's Notebook in 2009 to create a standard approach for collecting phenology data on plants and animals across the country. Currently, about half of the data are submitted by independent backyard observers at individual sites and half are submitted by groups of participants as part of a Local Phenology Program. With support from the U.S. Geological Survey, the USA-NPN collects, organizes, and shares data on phenology. This information aids decision making, scientific discovery, and the development of a broader understanding of phenology.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2020

Short-term forecasts of insect phenology inform pest management

Insect pests cost billions of dollars per year globally, negatively impacting food crops and infrastructure, and contributing to the spread of disease. Timely information regarding developmental stages of pests can facilitate early detection and control, increasing efficiency and effectiveness. In 2018, the U.S. National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) released a suite of ‘Pheno Forecast’ map products relevant to science and management. The Pheno Forecasts include real-time maps and short-term forecasts of insect pest activity at management-relevant spatial and temporal resolutions and are based on accumulated temperature thresholds associated with critical life-cycle stages of economically important pests. Pheno Forecasts indicate, for a specified day, the status of the insect’s target life-cycle stage in real time across the contiguous United States. The maps are available for 12 pest species including the invasive emerald ash borer ( Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire [Coleoptera: Buprestidae]), hemlock woolly adelgid ( Adelges tsugae Annand), and gypsy moth ( Lymantria dispar Linnaeus [Lepidoptera: Erebidae]). Preliminary validation based on in-situ observations for hemlock woolly adelgid egg and nymph stages in 2018 indicated the maps to be ≥93% accurate depending on phenophase. Since their release in early 2018, these maps have been adopted by tree care specialists and foresters across the United States. Using a consultative mode of engagement, USA-NPN staff have continuously sought input and critique of the maps and delivery from end users. Based on feedback received, maps have been expanded and modified to include additional species, improved descriptions of the phenophase event of interest, and e-mail-based notifications to support management decisions.

Annals of the Entomological Society of America↗

USGS2019

Pheno forecasts predict seasonal activity of pest and invasive species to support decision making

The USA National Phenology Network’s Pheno Forecast maps indicate the status of insect pest or invasive plant life cycle stages in real time across the contiguous United States. This information can guide when to monitor or to undertake management activities. These maps, available at 2.5 km spatial resolution, are updated daily and are available six days into the future. Pheno Forecast maps are now available for 12 insect pest species and for one invasive grass species.

Report↗

USGS2018

Differential changes in the onset of spring across US National Wildlife Refuges and North American migratory bird flyways

Warming temperatures associated with climate change can have indirect effects on migratory birds that rely on seasonally available food resources and habitats that vary across spatial and temporal scales. We used two heat-based indices of spring onset, the First Leaf Index (FLI) and the First Bloom Index (FBI), as proxies of habitat change for the period 1901 to 2012 at three spatial scales: the US National Wildlife Refuge System; the four major bird migratory flyways in North America; and the seasonal ranges (i.e., breeding and non-breeding grounds) of two migratory bird species, Blue-winged Warbler ( Vermivora cyanoptera ) and Whooping Crane ( Grus americana ). Our results show that relative to the historical range of variability, the onset of spring is now earlier in 76% of all wildlife refuges and extremely early (i.e., exceeding 95% of historical conditions) in 49% of refuges. In all flyways but the Pacific, the rate of spring advance is generally greater at higher latitudes than at lower latitudes. This differential rate of advance in spring onset is most pronounced in the Atlantic flyway, presumably because of a “warming hole” in the southeastern US. Both FLI and FBI have advanced markedly in the breeding ranges–but not the non-breeding ranges–of the two selected bird species, albeit with considerable intra-range variation. Differences among species in terms of migratory patterns and the location and extent of seasonal habitats, as well as shifts in habitat conditions over time, may complicate predictions of the vulnerability of migratory birds to climate change effects. This study provides insight into how differential shifts in the phenology of disparate but linked habitats could inform local- to landscape-scale management strategies for the conservation of migratory bird populations.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2018

USA National Phenology Network observational data documentation

The goals of the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN, www.usanpn.org ) are to advance science, inform decisions, and communicate and connect with the public regarding phenology and species’ responses to environmental variation and climate change. The USA-NPN seeks to advance the science of phenology and facilitate ecosystem stewardship by providing phenological information freely and openly. To accomplish these goals, the USA-NPN National Coordinating Office (NCO) delivers observational data on plant and animal phenology in several formats, including minimally processed status and intensity datasets and derived phenometrics for individual plants, sites, and regions. This document describes the suite of observational data products delivered by the USA National Phenology Network, covering the period 2009–present for the United States and accessible via the Phenology Observation Portal ( http://dx.doi.org/10.5066/F78S4N1V ) and via an Application Programming Interface. The data described here have been used in diverse research and management applications, including over 30 publications in fields such as remote sensing, plant evolution, and resource management.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2018

National Park Service and the USA National Phenology Network

Understanding the seasonal cycles of plants and animals, how they are changing, and how they can inform management, operations, and interpretation is critical to the mission of the National Park Service (NPS): to preserve unimpaired the natural and cultural resources and values of the National Park System for the enjoyment, education, and inspiration of this and future generations.

Report↗

USGS2018

USA National Phenology Network supports decision making

The USA National Phenology Network is a federally-funded, nationalscale science and monitoring initiative focused on phenology as a tool to understand how plants, animals, and landscapes respond to environmental variation and change.

Report↗

USGS2017

US Fish and Wildlife Service and the USA National Phenology Network

Understanding the seasonal cycles of plants and animals, how they are changing, and how these changes can inform management, operations, and interpretation is critical to the mission of the US Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS): to work with others to conserve, protect, and enhance fish, wildlife, plants, and their habitats for the continuing benefit of the American people. Phenology monitoring is particularly relevant to the management of national wildlife refuges.

Report↗

USGS2014

Organizing phenological data resources to inform natural resource conservation

Changes in the timing of plant and animal life cycle events, in response to climate change, are already happening across the globe. The impacts of these changes may affect biodiversity via disruption to mutualisms, trophic mismatches, invasions and population declines. To understand the nature, causes and consequences of changed, varied or static phenologies, new data resources and tools are being developed across the globe. The USA National Phenology Network is developing a long-term, multi-taxa phenological database, together with a customizable infrastructure, to support conservation and management needs. We present current and potential applications of the infrastructure, across scales and user groups. The approaches described here are congruent with recent trends towards multi-agency, large-scale research and action.

Biological Conservation↗