Erica M. Gallerani | Search USGS

USGS2025

Breaking down Palila decline: Assessing the role of drought and vegetation health in the population loss of an endangered Hawaiian honeycreeper

The Palila ( Loxioides bailleui ), the last member of the once speciose finch-billed Hawaiian honeycreeper clade (Drepanidinae) in the main Hawaiian Islands, faces critical conservation challenges as an endangered species. Understanding the drivers of its decline is essential for effective management. We used additive decomposition models to examine temporal trends in climatic variables (temperature, precipitation, drought) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), a vegetation health metric hypothesized to be associated with long-term trends in Palila abundance at landscape (250 m) scales on the Island of Hawai'i. A breakpoint analysis identified 2005–2009 as critical years of Palila decline. Vegetation health metrics at the 250 m scale lined up well both spatially and temporally with trends in Palila declines, with a significant browning from January 2004 to January 2014. Given the strong correlation between vegetation health and drought metrics at the landscape scale (r = 0.75, p < 0.001), NDVI changes appeared driven by drought. To enable the future projection of habitat quality in this area, we explored a stepwise linear regression to explain the variation in MODIS NDVI in recent years. We found that 87 % of the variability in NDVI can be explained by wet season precipitation and vapor pressure deficit from the previous dry season. The model is largely driven by a strong positive correlation between wet season precipitation and NDVI (r = 0.72, adjusted p < 0.001). Areas that maintained a low likelihood of NDVI decline throughout the time series and experienced increases in predicted Palila count represent potential drought microrefugia for the species. This higher elevation microrefugia is likely resilient against decreases in wet season precipitation through supplemental water retention from fog drip. While NDVI rebounded after 2014, Palila have not recovered. Our analysis highlights the importance of trend decomposition for monitoring endangered species with limited rebound potential due to small population dynamics and indicate continued warm, dry conditions may prevent Palila recovery without intervention.

Hawaii↗

USGS2023

High resolution lidar data shed light on inter-island translocation of endangered bird species in the Hawaiian Islands

Translocation, often a management solution reserved for at-risk species, is a highly time-sensitive intervention in the face of a rapidly changing climate. The definition of abiotic and biotic habitat requirements is essential to the selection of appropriate release sites in novel environments. However, field-based approaches to gathering this information are often too time intensive, especially in areas of complex topography where common, coarse-scale climate models lack essential details. We apply a fine-scale remote sensing-based approach to study the 'akikiki ( Oreomystis bairdi ) and 'akeke'e ( Loxops caeruleirostris ), Hawaiian honeycreepers endemic to Kaua'i that are experiencing large-scale population declines due to warming-induced spread of invasive disease. We use habitat suitability modeling based on fine-scale light detection and ranging (lidar)-derived habitat structure metrics to refine coarse climate ranges for these species in candidate translocation areas on Maui. We found that canopy density was consistently the most important variable in defining habitat suitability for the two Kaua'i species. Our models also corroborated known habitat preferences and behavioral information for these species that are essential for informing translocation. We estimated a nesting habitat that will persist under future climate conditions on east Maui of 23.43 km 2 for 'akikiki, compared to the current Kaua'i range of 13.09 km 2 . In contrast, the novel nesting range for 'akeke'e in east Maui was smaller than its current range on Kaua'i (26.29 vs. 38.48 km 2 , respectively). We were also able to assess detailed novel competitive interactions at a fine scale using models of three endemic Maui species of conservation concern: 'ākohekohe ( Palmeria dolei ), Maui 'alauahio ( Paroreomyza montana ), and kiwikiu ( Pseudonestor xanthophrys ). Weighted overlap areas between the species from both islands were moderate (<12 km 2 ), and correlations between Maui and Kaua'i bird habitat were generally low, indicating limited potential for competition. Results indicate that translocation to east Maui could be a viable option for 'akikiki but would be more uncertain for 'akeke'e. Our novel multifaceted approach allows for the timely analysis of both climate and vegetation structure at informative scales for the effective selection of appropriate translocation sites for at-risk species.

Hawaii↗