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Eric E. Grossman

Publications and source records attributed to Eric E. Grossman.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2020

Sediment transport in a restored, river-influenced Pacific Northwest estuary

Predicting the success of future investments in coastal and estuarine ecosystem restorations is limited by scarce data quantifying sediment budgets and transport processes of prior restorations. This study provides detailed analyses of the hydrodynamics and sediment fluxes of a recently restored U.S. Pacific Northwest estuary, a 61 ha former agricultural area near the mouth of the Stillaguamish River in Washington, USA. Water level, flow velocity, and suspended-sediment concentration (SSC) were measured between 21 March 2014 and 1 June 2015 at breaches excavated in the former flood-protection levee to determine transport patterns and the net sediment budget of the restoration area. SSC within the restoration area was primarily controlled by SSC variability of the nearby main stem Stillaguamish, but coastal processes also played a major role in sediment delivery. Fluvial sediment loading was dominated by runoff events associated with rainfall that lasted hours to a few days. Additionally, the 22 March 2014 SR 530 (Oso) landslide elevated sediment supply to the restoration area and coastal region for several weeks, indicating the importance of distal geomorphic events to coastal sediment budgets in small mountainous river systems. Sediment fluxes were controlled by river SSC and tidal dynamics, which set the quantity of water transported into the restoration area. Peak water discharge at the restoration area was about 12% of the river discharge, and peak sediment flux at the restoration area was about 5% of the river sediment discharge, although net sediment import was < 1% of the total river load. Although sediment was imported to the restoration area, and inferred rates of accretion appear sufficient to keep pace with present rates of local sea-level rise, full recovery is challenged by significant lost grade from historical subsidence and will likely take decades to centuries. These results have implications for estuary restoration planning globally and indicate the importance of understanding coupled fluvial–coastal processes.

Washington↗
USGS2020

Sediment export and impacts associated with river delta channelization compound estuary vulnerability to sea-level rise, Skagit River Delta, Washington, USA

Improved understanding of the budget and retention of sediment in river deltas is becoming increasingly important to mitigate and plan for impacts expected with sea level rise. In this study, analyses of historical bathymetric change, sediment core stratigraphy, and modeling are used to evaluate the sediment budget and environmental response of the largest river delta in the U.S. Pacific Northwest to western land-use change beginning in ~1850. An estimated 142±28 M m 3 of sediment accumulated offshore of the emergent Skagit River delta in Washington State between 1890 and 2014 and ~68% of which was found in sand deposits. The fraction of sediment retained in sand reservoirs represents 83% of the expected fluvial sand delivery over this time suggesting their potential utility to evaluate the relative contribution of different land uses to sediment runoff through time. A significantly higher ratio of sand retention to delivery during the period 1890–1939 coincided with extensive watershed denudation (clear-cut logging) and channel dredging, relative to the period 1940–2014, which was characterized by improved forest practices and sediment management to protect endangered species but also more extensive river channelization. Retention in the delta foreset of 78% of the sand delivered by the river between 1890 and 1939 was associated with extensive sediment bypassing and delta progradation that is shown to be 5–10x higher than rates over the Holocene. Comparable offshore sand retention over time and higher nearshore retention subsequent to 1940 after normalizing for the assumed reduction in sediment runoff with improved forest practices, suggests that channelization has continued to influence sediment export at a magnitude equivalent to the effects of early logging. Adverse impacts of the bypassing sediment regime to natural hazards risk and ecosystem management concerns are discussed, including the role of the lost sediment as a resource to mitigate subsiding coastal lands vulnerable to flood impacts. The sediment budget and coastal change analyses provide a framework for evaluating opportunities to achieve greater resilience across several sectors of coastal land use important in low-lying deltas worldwide.

Washington↗
USGS2020

Distribution and transport of Olympia oyster, Ostrea lurida, larvae in northern Puget Sound, Washington, USA

As efforts for restoring Olympia oyster (Ostrea lurida) populations have expanded, there is an increased need to understand local factors that could influence the long-term success of these projects. To address concerns over potential limitations to recruitment at a restoration site in northern Puget Sound, Washington, USA, a study was developed to characterize physical processes governing larval transport in conjunction with larval abundance and environmental factors. Larval presence was not associated with tide cycle, season, or a combination of tide cycle and season. In terms of location, larvae were more likely to be present at offshore and intertidal sites versus the estuarine lagoon where the adult population resides. Larval density was higher during late summer ebbs versus early summer floods. Across sampling dates and locations, larval sizes ranged from 184 to 263 µm, indicating that larvae were released into the water column throughout the reproductive season and retained in the embayment for at least ~16 days. Throughout different tidal cycles in Skagit Bay, acoustic Doppler current profilers were used to measure current direction and velocities, concurrent with plankton sampling. Surface currents in the study area alternated between a clockwise and counterclockwise gyre during initial ebb and flood tides, respectively. Larvae exported from the source population during initial to mid-ebbs are swept into a northward gyre, and potentially retained at intertidal sites alongshore. These results will provide resource managers attempting to restore native bivalves with the ability to expand populations by identifying optimal areas for habitat enhancement through natural recruitment.

Washington↗
USGS2019

Sediment storage and transport in the Nooksack River basin, northwestern Washington, 2006–15

The Nooksack River is a dynamic gravel-bedded river in northwestern Washington, draining off Mount Baker and the North Cascades into Puget Sound. Working in cooperation with the Whatcom County Flood Control Zone District, the U.S. Geological Survey studied topographic, hydrologic, and climatic data for the Nooksack River basin to document recent changes in sediment storage, long-term bed elevation trends, rates of sediment transport, and factors influencing surficial drainage in order to support ongoing river management. Differences in elevations between topographic and bathymetric surveys in 2005/06 and 2013/15 indicate the active channel aggraded about 1–2 feet locally near the cities of Ferndale and Everson but was primarily stable between them. The active channel upstream of Nugent’s Corner generally incised. Total incision upstream of Nugent’s Corner to Glacier Creek generated 2.3 ± 1.7 million cubic yards of sediment from 2005/06 to 2013 and likely represented a significant source of coarse sediment to the lower mainstem river over that time. Long-term records of local channel-bed elevation, derived from U.S. Geological Survey streamgage data, show bed-elevation changes of about 1–3 feet. The river bed at most streamgages exhibits long-term trends, with relatively consistent rates of change on the order of 1 foot per decade that persist years to decades. Lagged correlations in bed-elevation trends at all seven streamgages in the North Fork Nooksack and mainstem Nooksack suggest that decadal periods of persistent aggradation and incision originate in the North Fork and translate downstream. The channel-change signal propagates downstream 0.5–2.5 miles per year, with the rate of propagation scaling closely with channel slope. The pattern of incision and aggradation in the North Fork correlates with regional climate, where persistent incision follows extended cold and wet periods, and persistent aggradation follows extended warm and dry periods. Climate-driven variation in coarse-sediment delivery, primarily from the North Fork Nooksack, then appears to be a strong control on long-term vertical channel adjustments at sites downstream. The downstream-translating climate signal generated in the North Fork would account for recently observed aggradation at Everson and Ferndale but not the observed incision in unconfined reaches upstream of Nugent’s Corner from 2005–06 to 2013. This mismatch indicates that understanding how changes in sediment-supply influence those unconfined reaches remains a key uncertainty for predicting future channel change. Continuous turbidity monitoring integrated with suspended sediment and limited bedload sampling were used to calculate annual sediment loads at five sites in the basin. The sediment load in the lower river at Ferndale ranged from 0.78 to 1.17 million tons per year and averaged 0.97 million tons per year for WYs 2012–17. Suspended sediment made up 93 percent of the load, and bedload made up 7 percent. Most of the fine sediment load of the lower river is supplied from headwaters of the North, Middle, and South Fork Nooksack basins, with relatively little net increase in fine sediment loads in the lower mainstem basin. The three forks supply approximately equal proportions of the lower-river fine sediment load. However, the glacially sourced North and Middle Fork Nooksack basins carry a notably sandier suspended-sediment load than the South Fork Nooksack. A comparison of monthly streamflow and precipitation trends since 1981 indicate statistically significant increases in total spring precipitation and the number of spring days with measurable precipitation in much of the basin, as well as increases in mean spring river stage near Ferndale. Since no trends in mean spring discharge are observed, the trends in river stage are attributed primarily to observed changes in bed elevation. Changes in bed elevation and precipitation may then both have plausibly impacted field drainage in the lower river below Ferndale.

Washington↗
USGS2019

Extreme coastal water level in Washington state: Guidance to support sea level rise planning

This document provides guidelines for assessing exposure to future coastal flooding during extreme coastal water level events – whether these are due to tides, surge, wave run-up, or, more likely, a combination of the three. These guidelines provide information about the current and future magnitude of extreme coastal water levels across Washington State and the underlying processes that influence them. This information is intended to be combined with sea level projections to assess future exposure to coastal flooding along Washington’s coastline. Although the results of our analyses can be combined with any available sea level projections, this report is intended as a companion to the localized sea level rise projections (Miller et al., 2018) developed as part of the Washington Coastal Resilience Project. The Washington Coastal Resilience Project was a three-year effort to rapidly increase the state’s capacity to prepare for sea level rise. The project aimed to improve risk projections, provide better guidelines for land use planners and strengthen capital investment programs for coastal restoration and infrastructure. Partners in the Washington Coastal Resilience Project included Washington Sea Grant, Washington Department of Ecology, Island County, King County, NOAA Office for Coastal Management, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Padilla Bay National Estuary Research Reserve, The City of Tacoma, The Nature Conservancy, U.S. Geological Survey, University of Oregon, University of Washington Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife and Western Washington University. The 2018 sea level projections are described in an accompanying technical report, along with a review of the science related to sea level rise (Miller et al., 2018). The report and all associated supporting information are available on the Washington Coastal Hazards Resilience Network website (http://www.wacoastalnetwork.com/).

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USGS2018

Juvenile Chinook salmon and forage fish use of eelgrass habitats in a diked and channelized Puget Sound River Delta

Eelgrass Zostera marina can form extensive meadows on Puget Sound river deltas. The extent to which these meadows provide critical rearing habitat for local estuarine fishes, especially out‐migrating juvenile salmon, is not well understood. Further, delta eelgrass has been impacted by diking and river channelization with unknown consequences for fish. We sampled fish in the Skagit River delta, Washington, during April–September with a lampara net, which is well suited to capturing fish in eelgrass. We compared abundance and body size of Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and three forage fish species between eelgrass and nearby unvegetated habitat. We also assessed combined effects of eelgrass characteristics (meadow size and morphology) and oceanographic conditions (temperature and salinity), which covaried according to proximity and orientation to channelized distributary outlets, diked shorelines, and a jetty. Chinook Salmon were more abundant in eelgrass than in unvegetated habitat in June–July and were relatively more abundant in eelgrass compared with unvegetated habitat in regions with intact eelgrass than offshore from a channelized distributary outlet. Abundances of Pacific Herring Clupea pallasii and Shiner Perch Cymatogaster aggregata were consistently severalfold higher in eelgrass than in unvegetated habitat. Surf Smelt Hypomesus pretiosus were more abundant in eelgrass than in unvegetated habitat at some locations, but never less abundant in eelgrass. Our results suggest that conservation and restoration of delta eelgrass would benefit these species and help to identify the settings in which these actions would be most beneficial.

Washington↗
USGS2017

Suspended-sediment loads in the lower Stillaguamish River, Snohomish County, Washington, 2014–15

Continuous records of discharge and turbidity at a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgage in the lower Stillaguamish River were paired with discrete measurements of suspended-sediment concentration (SSC) in order to estimate suspended-sediment loads over the water years 2014 and 2015. First, relations between turbidity and SSC were developed and used to translate the continuous turbidity record into a continuous estimate of SSC. Those concentrations were then used to predict suspended-sediment loads based on the current discharge record, reported at daily intervals. Alternative methods were used to in-fill a small number of days with either missing periods of turbidity or discharge records. Uncertainties in our predictions at daily and annual time scales were estimated based on the parameter uncertainties in our turbidity-SSC regressions. Daily loads ranged from as high as 121,000 tons during a large autumn storm to as low as –56 tons, when tidal return flow moved more sediment upstream than river discharge did downstream. Annual suspended-sediment loads for both water years were close to 1.4 ± 0.2 million tons.

Washington↗
USGS2017

Comparing automated classification and digitization approaches to detect change in eelgrass bed extent during restoration of a large river delta

Native eelgrass ( Zostera marina ) is an important contributor to ecosystem services that supplies cover for juvenile fish, supports a variety of invertebrate prey resources for fish and waterbirds, provides substrate for herring roe consumed by numerous fish and birds, helps stabilize sediment, and sequesters organic carbon. Seagrasses are in decline globally, and monitoring changes in their growth and extent is increasingly valuable to determine impacts from large-scale estuarine restoration and inform blue carbon mapping initiatives. Thus, we examined the efficacy of two remote sensing mapping methods with high-resolution (0.5 m pixel size) color near infrared imagery with ground validation to assess change following major tidal marsh restoration. Automated classification of false color aerial imagery and digitized polygons documented a slight decline in eelgrass area directly after restoration followed by an increase two years later. Classification of sparse and low to medium density eelgrass was confounded in areas with algal cover, however large dense patches of eelgrass were well delineated. Automated classification of aerial imagery from unsupervised and supervised methods provided reasonable accuracies of 73% and hand-digitizing polygons from the same imagery yielded similar results. Visual clues for hand digitizing from the high-resolution imagery provided as reliable a map of dense eelgrass extent as automated image classification. We found that automated classification had no advantages over manual digitization particularly because of the limitations of detecting eelgrass with only three bands of imagery and near infrared.

Washington↗
USGS2017

2010-2015 Juvenile fish ecology in the Nisqually River Delta and Nisqually Reach Aquatic Reserve

The return of tidal inundation to over 750 acres of the U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge (NNWR) in fall of 2009 was the crowning moment in the effort to protect and restore the Nisqually Delta. The Nisqually NWR project complemented three earlier restoration projects completed by the Nisqually Indian Tribe (Tribe) on tribal property to restore over 900 acres of the estuary, representing the largest estuary restoration project in the Pacific Northwest and one of the most significant advances to date towards the recovery of Puget Sound (USFWS 2005). In 2011 the Washington Department of Natural Resources (WADNR established the over 14000 acre Nisqually Reach Aquatic Reserve (Reserve), complementing the protection and restoration successes in the Nisqually Delta. The Reserve includes all state-owned aquatic lands around Anderson, Ketron and Eagle islands and part of McNeil Island (Figure 1, WDNR 2011). The Reserve also includes a diverse assemblage of nearshore and offshore habitats important to resident and migratory fish including federal endangered species act listed fish like Chinook salmon (Oncorynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead (O. mykiss). Studies in the Nisqually Estuary (Ellings and Hodgson 2007, David et al. 2014, Ellings et al. 2016) and South Puget Sound (Duffy 2003) have summarized fish use of the area. However, the fish ecology of the reserve had not been systematically surveyed. The Tribe, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), NNWR, Nisqually River Foundation (NRF), and others are currently conducting a multi-year, interdisciplinary, hypothesis-based research and monitoring study investigating the impact of delta restoration on estuarine processes, habitat structures, and functions. Our interdisciplinary monitoring framework enables us to link key estuarine processes with habitat development and biological response at multiple scales across the restored footprint, reference marshes, and throughout the Nisqually Reach. Key research components include hydrology and sediment regime, channel and marsh topography and development, vegetation colonization, and invertebrate, bird, and fish abundance, habitat use, and foraging ecology. After the Reserve was established, the WDNR and the research partnership led by the Tribe expanded the existing delta fish ecology assessment to include sampling stations throughout the Reserve. The results of the Reserve fish ecology assessment provide a unique regional analysis of fish ecology from the Nisqually River to McNeil Island.

Salmon Recovery Program Technical Report↗
USGS2016

Sediment load and distribution in the lower Skagit River, Skagit County, Washington

The Skagit River delivers about 40 percent of all fluvial sediment that enters Puget Sound, influencing flood hazards in the Skagit lowlands, critically important estuarine habitat in the delta, and some of the most diverse and productive agriculture in western Washington. A total of 175 measurements of suspended-sediment load, made routinely from 1974 to 1993, and sporadically from 2006 to 2009, were used to develop and evaluate regression models of sediment transport (also known as “sediment-rating curves”) for estimating suspended-sediment load as a function of river discharge. Using a flow-range model and 75 years of daily discharge record (acquired from 1941 to 2015), the mean annual suspended-sediment load for the Skagit River near Mount Vernon, Washington, was estimated to be 2.5 teragrams (Tg, where 1 Tg = 1 million metric tons). The seasonal model indicates that 74 percent of the total annual suspended‑sediment load is delivered to Puget Sound during the winter storm season (from October through March), but also indicates that discharge is a poor surrogate for suspended‑sediment concentration (SSC) during the summer low-flow season. Sediment-rating curves developed for different time periods revealed that the regression model slope of the SSC-discharge relation increased 66 percent between the periods of 1974–76 and 2006–09 when suspended-sediment samples were collected, implying that changes in sediment supply, channel hydraulics, and (or) basin hydrology occurred between the two time intervals. In the relatively wet water year 2007 (October 1, 2006, through September 30, 2007), an automated sampler was used to collect daily samples of suspended sediment from which an annual load of 4.5 Tg was calculated, dominated by a single large flood event that contributed 1.8 Tg, or 40 percent of the total. In comparison, the annual load calculated for water year 2007 using the preferred flow-range model was 4.8 Tg (+6.7 percent), in close agreement with the measured value. Particle size affects sediment transport, fate and distribution across watersheds, and therefore is important for predicting how coastal environments, particularly deltas and beaches, will respond to changes in climate and sea-level. Particle-size analysis of winter storm samples indicated that about one-half of the suspended-sediment load consisted of fines (that is, silt- and clay-sized particles smaller than 0.0625 mm in diameter), and the remainder consisted of mostly fine- to medium-sized sand (0.0625–0.5 mm), whereas bedload during winter storm flows (about 1–3 percent of total sediment load) was predominantly composed of medium to coarse sand (0.25–1 mm). A continuous turbidity record from the Anacortes Water Treatment Plant (water years 1999–2013), used as a surrogate for the concentration of fines ( R 2 = 0.93, p = 4.2E-10, n = 17), confirms that about one-half of the mean annual suspended-sediment load is composed of fines. The distribution of flow through the delta distributaries (that is, the channels into which the main stem splits as it approaches the delta) is dynamic, with twice as much flow through the North Fork of the Skagit River relative to the South Fork during low-flow conditions, and close to equal flows in the two channels during high-flow conditions. Turbidity, monitored at several locations in the lower river in spring 2009, was essentially uniform among sites, indicating that fines are well mixed in the lower Skagit River system (defined as the Skagit River and all its distributaries downstream of the Mount Vernon streamgage). A strong relation ( R 2 = 0.95, p = 3.2E-14, n = 21; linear regression) between the concentration of fines and turbidity measured at various locations in summer 2009 indicates that turbidity is an effective surrogate for the concentration of fines, independent of location in the river, under naturally well-mixed fluvial conditions. This relation is especially useful for monitoring suspended sediment in western Washington rivers that are seasonally dominated by glacier meltwater because glacial melting typically produces suspended-sediment concentrations that are not well correlated with discharge. These results provide a comprehensive set of tools to estimate sediment delivery and delta responses of interest to scientists and resource managers including decision-makers examining options for flood hazard mitigation, estuary restoration, and climate change adaptation.

Washington↗
USGS2016

Suspended sediment delivery to Puget Sound from the lower Nisqually River, western Washington, July 2010–November 2011

On average, the Nisqually River delivers about 100,000 metric tons per year (t/yr) of suspended sediment to Puget Sound, western Washington, a small proportion of the estimated 1,200,000 metric tons (t) of sediment reported to flow in the upper Nisqually River that drains the glaciated, recurrently active Mount Rainier stratovolcano. Most of the upper Nisqually River sediment load is trapped in Alder Lake, a reservoir completed in 1945. For water year 2011 (October 1, 2010‒September 30, 2011), daily sediment and continuous turbidity data were used to determine that 106,000 t of suspended sediment were delivered to Puget Sound, and 36 percent of this load occurred in 2 days during a typical winter storm. Of the total suspended-sediment load delivered to Puget Sound in the water year 2011, 47 percent was sand (particle size >0.063 millimeters), and the remainder (53 percent) was silt and clay. A sediment-transport curve developed from suspended-sediment samples collected from July 2010 to November 2011 agreed closely with a curve derived in 1973 using similar data-collection methods, indicating that similar sediment-transport conditions exist. The median annual suspended-sediment load of 73,000 t (water years 1980–2014) is substantially less than the average load, and the correlation (Pearson’s r = 0.80, p = 8.1E-9, n =35) between annual maximum 2-day sediment loads and normalized peak discharges for the period indicates the importance of wet years and associated peak discharges of the lower Nisqually River for sediment delivery to Puget Sound. The magnitude of peak discharges in the lower Nisqually River generally is suppressed by flow regulation, and relative to other free-flowing, glacier-influenced rivers entering Puget Sound, the Nisqually River delivers proportionally less sediment because of upstream sediment trapping from dams.

Washington↗
USGS2016

Changes in habitat availability for outmigrating juvenile salmon (Oncorhychus spp.) following estuary restoration

The restoration of the Nisqually River Delta (Washington, U.S.A.) represents one of the largest efforts toward reestablishing the ecosystem function and resilience of modified habitat in the Puget Sound, particularly for anadromous salmonid species. The opportunity for outmigrating salmon to access and benefit from the expansion of available tidal habitat can be quantified by several physical attributes, which are related to the ecological and physiological responses of juvenile salmon. We monitored a variety of physical parameters to measure changes in opportunity potential from historic, pre-restoration, and post-restoration habitat conditions at several sites across the delta. These parameters included channel morphology, water quality, tidal elevation, and landscape connectivity. We conducted fish catch surveys across the delta to determine if salmon was utilizing restored estuary habitat. Overall major channel area increased 42% and major channel length increased 131% from pre- to post-restoration conditions. Furthermore, the results of our tidal inundation model indicated that major channels were accessible up to 75% of the time, as opposed to 30% pre-restoration. Outmigrating salmon utilized this newly accessible habitat as quickly as 1 year post-restoration. The presence of salmon in restored tidal channels confirmed rapid post-restoration increases in opportunity potential on the delta despite habitat quality differences between restored and reference sites.

Washington↗
USGS2016

Impacts of Climate Change on Regulated Streamflow, Hydrologic Extremes, Hydropower Production, and Sediment Discharge in the Skagit River Basin

Previous studies have shown that the impacts of climate change on the hydrologic response of the Skagit River are likely to be substantial under natural (i.e. unregulated) conditions. To assess the combined effects of changing natural flow and dam operations that determine impacts to regulated flow, a new integrated daily-time-step reservoir operations model was constructed for the Skagit River Basin. The model was used to simulate current reservoir operating policies for historical flow conditions and for projected flows for the 2040s (2030&ndash;2059) and 2080s (2070&ndash;2099). The results show that climate change is likely to cause substantial seasonal changes in both natural and regulated flow, with more flow in the winter and spring, and less in summer. Hydropower generation in the basin follows these trends, increasing (+ 19%) in the winter/ spring, and decreasing (- 29%) in the summer by the 2080s. The regulated 100-year flood is projected to increase by 23% by the 2040s and 49% by the 2080s. Peak winter sediment loading in December is projected to increase by 335% by the 2080s in response to increasing winter flows, and average annual sediment loading increases from 2.3 to 5.8 teragrams (+ 149%) per year by the 2080s. Regulated extreme low flows (7Q10) are projected to decrease by about 30% by the 2080s, but remain well above natural low flows. Both current and proposed alternative flood control operations are shown to be largely ineffective in mitigating increasing flood risks in the lower Skagit due to the distribution of flow in the basin during floods.

Washington↗
USGS2016

Combined effects of projected sea level rise, storm surge, and peak river flows on water levels in the Skagit Floodplain

Current understanding of the combined effects of sea level rise (SLR), storm surge, and changes in river flooding on near-coastal environments is very limited. This project uses a suite of numerical models to examine the combined effects of projected future climate change on flooding in the Skagit floodplain and estuary. Statistically and dynamically downscaled global climate model scenarios from the ECHAM-5 GCM were used as the climate forcings. Unregulated daily river flows were simulated using the VIC hydrology model, and regulated river flows were simulated using the SkagitSim reservoir operations model. Daily tidal anomalies (TA) were calculated using a regression approach based on ENSO and atmospheric pressure forcing simulated by the WRF regional climate model. A 2-D hydrodynamic model was used to estimate water surface elevations in the Skagit floodplain using resampled hourly hydrographs keyed to regulated daily flood flows produced by the reservoir simulation model, and tide predictions adjusted for SLR and TA. Combining peak annual TA with projected sea level rise, the historical (1970&ndash;1999) 100-yr peak high water level is exceeded essentially every year by the 2050s. The combination of projected sea level rise and larger floods by the 2080s yields both increased flood inundation area (+ 74%), and increased average water depth (+ 25 cm) in the Skagit floodplain during a 100-year flood. Adding sea level rise to the historical FEMA 100-year flood resulted in a 35% increase in inundation area by the 2040's, compared to a 57% increase when both SLR and projected changes in river flow were combined.

Washington↗
USGS2016

Assessing tidal marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise in the Skagit Delta

Historical aerial photographs, from 1937 to the present, show Skagit Delta tidal marshes prograding into Skagit Bay for most of the record, but the progradation rates have been steadily declining and the marshes have begun to erode in recent decades despite the large suspended sediment load provided by the Skagit River. In an area of the delta isolated from direct riverine sediment supply by anthropogenic blockage of historical distributaries, 0.5-m tall marsh cliffs along with concave marsh profiles indicate wave erosion is contributing to marsh retreat. This is further supported by a &ldquo;natural experiment&rdquo; provided by rocky outcrops that shelter high marsh in their lee, while being bounded by 0.5-m lower eroded marsh to windward and on either side. Coastal wetlands with high sediment supply are thought to be resilient to sea level rise, but the case of the Skagit Delta shows this is not necessarily true. A combination of sea level rise and wave-generated erosion may overwhelm sediment supply. Additionally, anthropogenic obstruction of historical distributaries and levee construction along the remaining distributaries likely increase the jet momentum of river discharge, forcing much suspended sediment to bypass the tidal marshes and be exported from Skagit Bay. Adaptive response to the threat of climate change related sea level rise and increased wave frequency or intensity should consider the efficacy of restoring historical distributaries and managed retreat of constrictive river levees to maximize sediment delivery to delta marshes.

Washington↗
USGS2014

Mount Baker lahars and debris flows, ancient, modern, and future

The Middle Fork Nooksack River drains the southwestern slopes of the active Mount Baker stratovolcano in northwest Washington State. The river enters Bellingham Bay at a growing delta 98 km to the west. Various types of debris flows have descended the river, generated by volcano collapse or eruption (lahars), glacial outburst floods, and moraine landslides. Initial deposition of sediment during debris flows occurs on the order of minutes to a few hours. Long-lasting, down-valley transport of sediment, all the way to the delta, occurs over a period of decades, and affects fish habitat, flood risk, gravel mining, and drinking water. Holocene lahars and large debris flows (>10 6 m 3 ) have left recognizable deposits in the Middle Fork Nooksack valley. A debris flow in 2013 resulting from a landslide in a Little Ice Age moraine had an estimated volume of 100,000 m 3 , yet affected turbidity for the entire length of the river, and produced a slug of sediment that is currently being reworked and remobilized in the river system. Deposits of smaller-volume debris flows, deposited as terraces in the upper valley, may be entirely eroded within a few years. Consequently, the geologic record of small debris flows such as those that occurred in 2013 is probably very fragmentary. Small debris flows may still have significant impacts on hydrology, biology, and human uses of rivers downstream. Impacts include the addition of waves of fine sediment to stream loads, scouring or burying salmon-spawning gravels, forcing unplanned and sudden closure of municipal water intakes, damaging or destroying trail crossings, extending river deltas into estuaries, and adding to silting of harbors near river mouths.

Washington↗
USGS2014

Indigenous community health and climate change: integrating biophysical and social science indicators

This article describes a pilot study evaluating the sensitivity of Indigenous community health to climate change impacts on Salish Sea shorelines (Washington State, United States and British Columbia, Canada). Current climate change assessments omit key community health concerns, which are vital to successful adaptation plans, particularly for Indigenous communities. Descriptive scaling techniques, employed in facilitated workshops with two Indigenous communities, tested the efficacy of ranking six key indicators of community health in relation to projected impacts to shellfish habitat and shoreline archaeological sites stemming from changes in the biophysical environment. Findings demonstrate that: when shellfish habitat and archaeological resources are impacted, so is Indigenous community health; not all community health indicators are equally impacted; and, the community health indicators of highest concern are not necessarily the same indicators most likely to be impacted. Based on the findings and feedback from community participants, exploratory trials were successful; Indigenous-specific health indicators may be useful to Indigenous communities who are assessing climate change sensitivities and creating adaptation plans.

British Columbia;Washington↗