Geology topics

Eric D. Swain

Publications and source records attributed to Eric D. Swain.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

Forecasting water levels using the ConvLSTM algorithm in the Everglades, USA

Forecasting water levels in complex ecosystems like wetlands can support effective water resource management, ecological conservation, and understanding surface and groundwater hydrology. Predictive models can be used to simulate the complex interactions among natural processes, hydrometeorological factors, and human activities. The Greater Everglades in the USA is a well-known example of an ecosystem where complexity has motivated adoption of machine learning algorithms in water level prediction studies. This paper aims to contribute to extending existing machine learning algorithms by integrating spatiotemporal data with deep-learning algorithms in the forecasting process. In this study, a deep-learning model is developed to predict water levels on a regional scale, covering a large area of approximately 9,138 square kilometers in the Everglades ecosystem. This model has the architecture of Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory which can deal with spatiotemporal data by capturing both spatial and temporal dependencies in the training data. The forecasting capabilities of this model (referred to as the global model) are assessed by comparing the global model to two Artificial Neural Networks developed at two different gaging stations, referred to here as local models. One local model is developed at a gaging station directly influenced by nearby water control structures, whereas the other is developed at a gaging station located farther away from these structures. By leveraging data from the Everglades Depth Estimation Network spanning from January 2002 to May 2023, the global and local models were trained to forecast water levels with a two-day lead time. Our findings suggest that both the global and local models perform with approximately the same level of accuracy, with Mean Absolute Relative Error values ranging from 0.38% to 1.4% at the selected stations. The developed global model has demonstrated strong potential as a standalone forecasting tool for the entire study area in the Everglades and could eliminate the need for developing multiple local models. This finding also highlights how machine learning can capture complex spatial and temporal relationships to generate accurate water level predictions on a regional scale.

Florida↗

USGS2021

Groundwater chemistry, hydrogeologic properties, bioremediation potential, and three-dimensional numerical simulation of the sand and gravel aquifer at Naval Air Station Whiting Field, near Milton, Florida, 2015–20

The U.S. Geological Survey completed a study between 2015 and 2020 of groundwater contamination in the sand and gravel aquifer at a Superfund site in northwestern Florida. Groundwater-quality samples were collected from representative monitoring wells located along a groundwater-flow pathway and analyzed in the field and laboratory. In general, ambient groundwater in the sand and gravel aquifer is acidic, dilute, and oxic. Groundwater age-dating results indicate recharge to the contaminated parts of the aquifer occurred between the 1970s and 1980s. Natural gamma, electromagnetic induction, and borehole nuclear magnetic resonance logs indicated that aquifer hydraulic conductivities generally increased with depth as the aquifer formation material became coarser, characteristic of a prograding marginal-marine delta depositional environment. Aquifer formation material incubated with radiocarbon (carbon-14) cis -1,2-Dichloroethylene demonstrated biodegradation directly to carbon dioxide in contaminated and uncontaminated parts of the aquifer. A three-dimensional, numerical groundwater-flow MODFLOW model of the sand and gravel aquifer in the study area was constructed. The calibrated model reasonably reproduced measured groundwater heads and streamflows. Moreover, the model can be used to run simulations of outcomes of potential remedial strategies, such as monitored natural attenuation, as part of future feasibility studies in the area.

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USGS2020

Repurposing a hindcast simulation of the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane, south Florida

Hydrodynamic model hindcasts of the surface water and groundwater of the Everglades and the greater Miami, Florida, area were used to simulate hydrology using estimated storm surge height, wind field, and rainfall for the Great Miami Hurricane (GMH), which struck on September 18, 1926. Ranked estimates of losses from hurricanes in inflation-adjusted dollars indicate that the GMH was one of the most damaging tropical cyclones to make landfall in the United States, but little hydrologic data were collected because many types of field stations did not exist at the time. Several techniques were used to estimate previously unknown critical storm variables for model input, demonstrating the value of reanalyzing historical storm events using modern hydrodynamic modeling. This representation of the 1926 GMH was then used to develop a hypothetical simulation of the hydrologic effects of a similar hurricane occurring in contemporary (1996) times. Results indicate that the 18-centimeter sea-level rise between 1926 and 1996 had a greater effect on salinity intrusion than climatic differences or the development of modern canal-based infrastructure. Moreover, the post-1926 canal infrastructure does not seem to substantially mitigate the deleterious effects of sea-level rise.

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USGS2019

The hydrologic system of the south Florida peninsula—Development and application of the Biscayne and Southern Everglades Coastal Transport (BISECT) model

The Biscayne and Southern Everglades Coastal Transport (BISECT) model was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey under the Greater Everglades Priority Ecosystem Studies Initiative to evaluate, both separately and in conjunction, the likely effects on surface-water stages and flows, hydroperiod, and groundwater levels and salinity in south Florida of (1) a vertical Biscayne aquifer barrier to maintain higher wetland levels, (2) possible future changes to current water-management practices, and (3) sea-level rise. The BISECT model is a combination of the Tides and Inflows to the Mangrove Everglades (TIME) and Biscayne models of the western and eastern parts of south Florida including Everglades National Park, the southern Miami-Dade urban area, and the Biscayne Bay coast and simulates hydrodynamic surface-water flow and three-dimensional groundwater conditions dynamically for the period 1996–2004 by using the Flow and Transport in a Linked Overland/Aquifer Density-Dependent System (FTLOADDS) simulator. BISECT includes a number of parameter and algorithmic refinements that improve simulation results relative to the TIME and Biscayne models and represents the hydrologic system more explicitly, including (1) improved topographic representations, (2) refined Manning’s friction coefficients, (3) improved evapotranspiration computation through spatially variable albedo, (4) increased vertical aquifer discretization, and (5) extension of the western boundary farther offshore. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate that simulated flows into Long Sound have a different pattern of response to tidal amplitude, wind, and frictional resistance changes than do other coastal streams in the model; flows at Broad River and Lostmans River are most sensitive to tidal amplitude, wind, and frictional resistance changes; and flow to the Everglades coastal streams is substantially affected by surface-water/groundwater interactions in the eastern urban areas. Insight into the hydrologic system came from scenario simulations that represent proposed management actions, such as grouting of the aquifer to prevent seepage from the wetlands and changes to water deliveries proposed by the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP), and projected sea-level rise. These scenario management changes are considered separately to isolate their specific effects and also in conjunction with sea-level rise. Scenario simulations show that (1) attempts to prevent seepage from the wetlands by grouting the aquifer along the L 31N levee produce minimal effects on surface-water levels; (2) the increased water deliveries proposed in the CERP redistribute flow to the northwestern coastal part of the study area with a minimal reduction to the southeast and a more substantial reduction in flows in the intervening coastal zones, mitigating some sea-level rise effects; (3) sea-level rise has a larger effect on the hydrology (water levels, flow, and salinity) than does CERP restoration; and (4) support for ecological models and hydrologic studies can be provided by applying BISECT to scenarios influenced by climatic and anthropogenic changes or by meteorological variability, such as extreme wet or dry periods.

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USGS2019

Potential for increased inundation in flood-prone regions of southeast Florida in response to climate and sea-level changes in Broward County, Florida, 2060–69

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Broward County Environmental Planning and Resilience Division, has developed county-scale and local-scale groundwater/surface-water models to study the potential for increased inundation and flooding in eastern Broward County that are due to changes in future climate and sea-level rise. These models were constructed by using MODFLOW 2005, with the surface-water system represented by using the Surface-Water Routing process and a new Urban Runoff process. The local-scale model allowed the use of finer grid resolution in a selected area of the county, whereas the county-scale model provided boundary conditions for the local-scale model and insight into the hydrologic behavior of the larger system. The aquifer layering, properties, and boundaries relied heavily on a previous three-dimensional variable-density solute-transport model of the same area developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. The surface-water system within these new models actively simulates a part of the extensive canal network by using level-pool routing and active structure operations within the Surface-Water Routing process. These models were used to simulate a historical base-case period (1990–99) by using measured data and regional climate model rainfall and potential evapotranspiration output. The simulated flow and water-level results generally captured the behavior of the hydrologic system. A future period (2060–69) was simulated by using regional climate model rainfall and potential evapotranspiration output representing a wetter and drier future and low, intermediate, and high sea-level rise projections. The results were used to evaluate the potential effects on the surface-water drainage system, coastal-structure operation, and wet-season groundwater levels. Future period simulations using the county-scale model indicate that (1) the effects of the changing climate and sea level are much more evident in eastern and coastal areas of Broward County compared to western areas, with increases in groundwater level nearly equivalent to sea-level rise; (2) coastal groundwater-level increases are distributed farther inland in the wetter future scenarios than in the drier future scenarios; (3) water levels at the westernmost groundwater station locations exhibited little change caused by sea-level rise and showed more dependence on changes in precipitation; (4) there was a reduced west-to-east groundwater gradient with increasing sea-level rise; and (5) increased downstream tidal stage at the S–13 structure resulted in increased reliance on the pump to control upstream inland canal stages. Future simulations using the local-scale model indicate similar behavior as seen in the county-scale model: (1) the coastal areas exhibited the largest impacts in groundwater levels in the future scenarios; (2) the westernmost, interior areas exhibited little change during the future scenarios; and (3) there was an increased reliance on the pump at the S–13 coastal structure but to a lesser extent than indicated in the county-scale model because of the reduced temporal scale of the local-scale model. Possible adaptation and mitigation strategies were simulated to evaluate the county-scale and local-scale models’ ability to simulate hydrologic changes. Alterations to S–13 pump operations within the county-scale model were tested, and results indicate a reduced effect of sea-level rise inland of the control structure, but the affected area is spatially limited. The concept of using pumps to reduce the local groundwater levels in two neighborhood-sized areas was tested by using the local-scale model. The MODFLOW 2005 Drain package was used to remove groundwater by using drainage elevations set to zero, 1 foot, and 2 feet above average wet-season groundwater levels. Area 1 was well connected to coastal boundaries, and a high rate of groundwater removal was required, whereas the rate of groundwater removal required was greatly reduced in Area 2, which is less connected to tidal boundaries. Water for these scenarios was assumed to be pumped to tide with no downstream effects.

Florida↗

USGS2018

Using heat as a tracer to determine groundwater seepage in the Indian River Lagoon, Florida, April–November, 2017

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the St. Johns River Water Management District, conducted a study to examine water fluxes in two small study areas in the Indian River Lagoon. Vertical arrays of temperature sensors were placed at multiple locations in the lagoon bed to measure temperature time series in the vertical profile. These data at one of the study areas, Eau Gallie, were used in two numerical models, 1DTempPro and VFLUX, to estimate seepage flux rates into the lagoon. 1DTempPro uses an inverse-modeling approach to calibrate groundwater flux to the measured temperature time series. VFLUX isolates the fundamental frequency signal in the temperature data and utilizes the resulting amplitude and phase differences between sensor locations to determine vertical water flux. Field measurements were made during two time periods, March 23 to April 28, 2017, and June 1 to November 3, 2017. Simulating the first, drier period at one location with 1DTempPro helped determine reasonable seepage fluctuations and provided guidelines for choosing which temperature sensor pairs used in the VFLUX simulations would produce the best results. VFLUX simulations at eight locations indicated daily average seepage flux rates of less than 20 centimeters per day (cm/d) and substantial seepage flux out to a distance of at least 110 meters from shore. The spatial variation in average seepage flux rates within 40 meters of shore seemed large, ranging from about 3 to 20 cm/d. In the VFLUX application using the June 1–November 3, 2017 data, the seepage flux has a higher magnitude and fluctuation than the first simulation period, making the isolation of the fundamental temperature frequency signal in the temperature data difficult. However, useful partial or full simulations were achieved at 6 of the 10 locations. The storm surge of Hurricane Irma on September 10, 2017, changed the depths of the sensors relative to the lagoon bed and disrupted the ability of VFLUX to compute seepage flux for the posthurricane period. The June 1 to November 3, 2017, computed seepage flux rates were higher than those for the March 24 to April 28, 2017, period and were sometimes as great as 40 cm/d, and more than 60 cm/d at one location. The seepage time-series data collected during Hurricane Irma indicates a downward seepage flux as a result of the storm surge, followed by upwelling from precipitation recharge inland. The average seepage flux rates are higher than those during the March–April period and are over 25 cm/d near the coast and about 20 cm/d 130 meters offshore.

Florida↗

USGS2017

Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN)—A decade of serving hydrologic information to scientists and resource managers

Introduction The Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN) provides scientists and resource managers with regional maps of daily water levels and depths in the freshwater part of the Greater Everglades landscape. The EDEN domain includes all or parts of five Water Conservation Areas, Big Cypress National Preserve, Pennsuco Wetlands, and Everglades National Park. Daily water-level maps are interpolated from water-level data at monitoring gages, and depth is estimated by using a digital elevation model of the land surface. Online datasets provide time series of daily water levels at gages and rainfall and evapotranspiration data ( https://sofia.usgs.gov/eden/ ). These datasets are used by scientists and resource managers to guide large-scale field operations, describe hydrologic changes, and support biological and ecological assessments that measure ecosystem response to the implementation of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. EDEN water-level data have been used in a variety of biological and ecological studies including (1) the health of American alligators as a function of water depth, (2) the variability of post-fire landscape dynamics in relation to water depth, (3) the habitat quality for wading birds with dynamic habitat selection, and (4) an evaluation of the habitat of the Cape Sable seaside sparrow.

Florida↗

USGS2017

Projecting impacts of climate change on water availability using artificial neural network techniques

Lago Loíza reservoir in east-central Puerto Rico is one of the primary sources of public water supply for the San Juan metropolitan area. To evaluate and predict the Lago Loíza water budget, an artificial neural network (ANN) technique is trained to predict river inflows. A method is developed to combine ANN-predicted daily flows with ANN-predicted 30-day cumulative flows to improve flow estimates. The ANN application trains well for representing 2007–2012 and the drier 1994–1997 periods. Rainfall data downscaled from global circulation model (GCM) simulations are used to predict 2050–2055 conditions. Evapotranspiration is estimated with the Hargreaves equation using minimum and maximum air temperatures from the downscaled GCM data. These simulated 2050–2055 river flows are input to a water budget formulation for the Lago Loíza reservoir for comparison with 2007–2012. The ANN scenarios require far less computational effort than a numerical model application, yet produce results with sufficient accuracy to evaluate and compare hydrologic scenarios. This hydrologic tool will be useful for future evaluations of the Lago Loíza reservoir and water supply to the San Juan metropolitan area.

Puerto Rico↗

USGS2017

Implications of refining vertical resolution of hydraulic conductivity in the numerical modeling of groundwater flow to surface water, NAS Whiting Field, Florida

Naval Air Station Whiting Field is located near Milton, Florida and is one of the Navy's two primary pilot training bases. Commissioned in 1943, historic operations at Whiting Field generated industrial wastes that contaminated soil and the water-table aquifer. The Environmental Protection Agency placed Whiting Field on the Superfund program’s National Priorities List of contaminated sites in 1994. The U.S. Geological Survey was tasked with studying the contaminant migration and remediation processes at this site. A numerical model is under development to better define groundwater flow patterns, discharge to surface water, and the potential fate of contaminants. An initial model discretized the water-table aquifer into 5 layers, with the top layer between land surface and elevation -50 feet National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 (NGVD29). However, with land surface ranging from 3.3 to 206.6 feet NGVD29, the top layer thickness is over 250 feet at highest land elevations. To more accurately simulate contaminant transport, refining the resolution in this top model layer is necessary.

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USGS2016

Applying downscaled Global Climate Model data to a groundwater model of the Suwannee River Basin, Florida, USA

The application of Global Climate Model (GCM) output to a hydrologic model allows for comparisons between simulated recent and future conditions and provides insight into the dynamics of hydrology as it may be affected by climate change. A previously developed numerical model of the Suwannee River Basin, Florida, USA, was modified and calibrated to represent transient conditions. A simulation of recent conditions was developed for the 372-month period 1970-2000 and was compared with a simulation of future conditions for a similar-length period 2039-2069, which uses downscaled GCM data. The MODFLOW groundwater-simulation code was used in both of these simulations, and two different MODFLOW boundary condition “packages” (River and Streamflow-Routing Packages) were used to represent interactions between surface-water and groundwater features. The hydrologic fluxes between the atmosphere and landscape for the simulation of future conditions were developed from dynamically downscaled precipitation and evapotranspiration (ET) data generated by the Community Climate System Model (CCSM). The downscaled precipitation data were interpolated for the Suwannee River model grid, and the downscaled ET data were used to develop potential ET and were interpolated to the grid. The fu¬ture period has higher simulated rainfall (10.8 percent) and ET (4.5 percent) than the recent period. The higher future rainfall causes simulated groundwater levels to rise in areas where they are deep and have little ET in either the recent or future case. However, in areas where groundwater levels were originally near the surface, the greater future ET causes groundwater levels to become lower despite the higher projected rainfall. The general implication is that unsaturated zone depth could be more spatially uniform in the future and vegetation that requires a range of conditions (substantially wetter or drier than aver¬age) could be detrimentally affected. This vegetation would include wetland species, especially in areas inland from the coast.

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USGS2015

Numerical computation of hurricane effects on historic coastal hydrology in Southern Florida

Introduction Numerical models are critical for assessing the effects of sea level rise (SLR), hurricanes, and storm surge on vegetation change in the Everglades National Park. The model must be capable of representing short-timescale hydrodynamics, salinity transport, and groundwater interaction. However, there is also a strong need to adapt these numerical models to hindcast past conditions in order to examine long-term effects on the distribution of vegetation that cannot be determined using only the modern record. Methods Based on parameters developed for a numerical model developed for the recent 1996 to 2004 period, a hindcast model was developed to represent sea level and water management for the period of 1926 to 1932, constrained by the limited hydrology and meteorology data available from the historic past. Realistic hurricane-wind and storm surge representations, required for the hindcast model, are based on information synthesized from modern storm data. A series of simulation scenarios with various hurricane representations inserted into both hindcast and recent numerical models were used to assess the utility of the storm representation in the model and compare the two simulations. Results The comparison of the hindcast and recent models showed differences in the hydrology patterns that are consistent with known differences in water delivery systems and sea level rise. A 30x lower-resolution spatially variable wind grid for the hindcast produced similar results to the original high-resolution full wind grid representation of the recent simulation. Storm effects on hydrologic patterns demonstrated with the simulations show hydrologic processes that could have a long-term effect on vegetation change. Conclusions The hindcast simulation estimated hydrologic processes for the 1926 to 1932 period. It shows promise as a simulator in long-term ecological studies to test hypotheses based on theoretical or empirical-based studies at larger landscape scales.

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USGS2015

Evaluation of habitat suitability index models by global sensitivity and uncertainty analyses: a case study for submerged aquatic vegetation

Habitat suitability index (HSI) models are commonly used to predict habitat quality and species distributions and are used to develop biological surveys, assess reserve and management priorities, and anticipate possible change under different management or climate change scenarios. Important management decisions may be based on model results, often without a clear understanding of the level of uncertainty associated with model outputs. We present an integrated methodology to assess the propagation of uncertainty from both inputs and structure of the HSI models on model outputs (uncertainty analysis: UA) and relative importance of uncertain model inputs and their interactions on the model output uncertainty (global sensitivity analysis: GSA). We illustrate the GSA/UA framework using simulated hydrology input data from a hydrodynamic model representing sea level changes and HSI models for two species of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) in southwest Everglades National Park: Vallisneria americana (tape grass) and Halodule wrightii (shoal grass). We found considerable spatial variation in uncertainty for both species, but distributions of HSI scores still allowed discrimination of sites with good versus poor conditions. Ranking of input parameter sensitivities also varied spatially for both species, with high habitat quality sites showing higher sensitivity to different parameters than low-quality sites. HSI models may be especially useful when species distribution data are unavailable, providing means of exploiting widely available environmental datasets to model past, current, and future habitat conditions. The GSA/UA approach provides a general method for better understanding HSI model dynamics, the spatial and temporal variation in uncertainties, and the parameters that contribute most to model uncertainty. Including an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in modeling efforts as part of the decision-making framework will result in better-informed, more robust decisions.

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USGS2014

Utilizing dimensional analysis with observed data to determine the significance of hydrodynamic solutions in coastal hydrology

In this paper, the authors present an analysis of the magnitude of the temporal and spatial acceleration (inertial) terms in the surface-water flow equations and determine the conditions under which these inertial terms have sufficient magnitude to be required in the computations. Data from two South Florida field sites are examined and the relative magnitudes of temporal acceleration, spatial acceleration, and the gravity and friction terms are compared. Parameters are derived by using dimensionless numbers and applied to quantify the significance of the hydrodynamic effects. The time series of the ratio of the inertial and gravity terms from field sites are presented and compared with both a simplified indicator parameter and a more complex parameter called the Hydrodynamic Significance Number (HSN). Two test-case models were developed by using the SWIFT2D hydrodynamic simulator to examine flow behavior with and without the inertial terms and compute the HSN. The first model represented one of the previously-mentioned field sites during gate operations of a structure-managed coastal canal. The second model was a synthetic test case illustrating the drainage of water down a sloped surface from an initial stage while under constant flow. The analyses indicate that the times of substantial hydrodynamic effects are sporadic but significant. The simplified indicator parameter correlates much better with the hydrodynamic effect magnitude for a constant width channel such as Miami Canal than at the non-uniform North River. Higher HSN values indicate flow situations where the inertial terms are large and need to be taken into account.

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USGS2013

Evaluating effects of Everglades restoration on American crocodile populations in south Florida using a spatially-explicit, stage-based population model

The distribution and abundance of the American crocodile ( Crocodylus acutus ) in the Florida Everglades is dependent on the timing, amount, and location of freshwater flow. One of the goals of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) is to restore historic freshwater flows to American crocodile habitat throughout the Everglades. To predict the impacts on the crocodile population from planned restoration activities, we created a stage-based spatially explicit crocodile population model that incorporated regional hydrology models and American crocodile research and monitoring data. Growth and survival were influenced by salinity, water depth, and density-dependent interactions. A stage-structured spatial model was used with discrete spatial convolution to direct crocodiles toward attractive sources where conditions were favorable. The model predicted that CERP would have both positive and negative impacts on American crocodile growth, survival, and distribution. Overall, crocodile populations across south Florida were predicted to decrease approximately 3 % with the implementation of CERP compared to future conditions without restoration, but local increases up to 30 % occurred in the Joe Bay area near Taylor Slough, and local decreases up to 30 % occurred in the vicinity of Buttonwood Canal due to changes in salinity and freshwater flows.

Florida↗

USGS2013

An integrated multi-criteria scenario evaluation web tool for participatory land-use planning in urbanized areas: The Ecosystem Portfolio Model

Land-use land-cover change is one of the most important and direct drivers of changes in ecosystem functions and services. Given the complexity of the decision-making, there is a need for Internet-based decision support systems with scenario evaluation capabilities to help planners, resource managers and communities visualize, compare and consider trade-offs among the many values at stake in land use planning. This article presents details on an Ecosystem Portfolio Model (EPM) prototype that integrates ecological, socio-economic information and associated values of relevance to decision-makers and stakeholders. The EPM uses a multi-criteria scenario evaluation framework, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) analysis and spatially-explicit land-use/land-cover change-sensitive models to characterize changes in important land-cover related ecosystem values related to ecosystem services and functions, land parcel prices, and community quality-of-life (QoL) metrics. Parameters in the underlying models can be modified through the interface, allowing users in a facilitated group setting to explore simultaneously issues of scientific uncertainty and divergence in the preferences of stakeholders. One application of the South Florida EPM prototype reported in this article shows the modeled changes (which are significant) in aggregate ecological value, landscape patterns and fragmentation, biodiversity potential and ecological restoration potential for current land uses compared to the 2050 land-use scenario. Ongoing refinements to EPM, and future work especially in regard to modifiable sea level rise scenarios are also discussed.

Environmental Modelling and Software↗

USGS2013

Assessing factors affecting the thermal properties of a passive thermal refuge using three-dimensional hydrodynamic flow and transport modeling

Everglades restoration activities may cause changes to temperature and salinity stratification at the Port of the Islands (POI) marina, which could affect its suitability as a cold weather refuge for manatees. To better understand how the Picayune Strand Restoration Project (PSRP) may alter this important resource in Collier County in southwestern Florida, the USGS has developed a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model for the marina and canal system at POI. Empirical data suggest that manatees aggregate at the site during winter because of thermal inversions that provide warmer water near the bottom that appears to only occur in the presence of salinity stratification. To study these phenomena, the environmental fluid dynamics code simulator was used to represent temperature and salinity transport within POI. Boundary inputs were generated using a larger two-dimensional model constructed with the flow and transport in a linked overland-aquifer density-dependent system simulator. Model results for a representative winter period match observed trends in salinity and temperature fluctuations and produce temperature inversions similar to observed values. Modified boundary conditions, representing proposed PSRP alterations, were also tested to examine the possible effect on the salinity stratification and temperature inversion within POI. Results show that during some periods, salinity stratification is reduced resulting in a subsequent reduction in temperature inversion compared with the existing conditions simulation. This may have an effect on POI’s suitability as a passive thermal refuge for manatees and other temperature-sensitive species. Additional testing was completed to determine the important physical relationships affecting POI’s suitability as a refuge.

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USGS2012

Evaluation of effects of changes in canal management and precipitation patterns on salinity in Biscayne Bay, Florida, using an integrated surface-water/groundwater model

Biscayne National Park, located in Biscayne Bay in southeast Florida, is one of the largest marine parks in the country and sustains a large natural marine fishery where numerous threatened and endangered species reproduce. In recent years, the bay has experienced hypersaline conditions (salinity greater than 35 practical salinity units) of increasing magnitude and duration. Hypersalinity events were particularly pronounced during April to August 2004 in nearshore areas along the southern and middle parts of the bay. Prolonged hypersaline conditions can cause degradation of water quality and permanent damage to, or loss of, brackish nursery habitats for multiple species of fish and crustaceans as well as damage to certain types of seagrasses that are not tolerant of extreme changes in salinity. To evaluate the factors that contribute to hypersalinity events and to test the effects of possible changes in precipitation patterns and canal flows into Biscayne Bay on salinity in the bay, the U.S. Geological Survey constructed a coupled surface-water/groundwater numerical flow model. The model is designed to account for freshwater flows into Biscayne Bay through the canal system, leakage of salty bay water into the underlying Biscayne aquifer, discharge of fresh and salty groundwater from the Biscayne aquifer into the bay, direct effects of precipitation on bay salinity, indirect effects of precipitation on recharge to the Biscayne aquifer, direct effects of evapotranspiration (ET) on bay salinity, indirect effects of ET on recharge to the Biscayne aquifer, and maintenance of mass balance of both water and solute. The model was constructed using the Flow and Transport in a Linked Overland/Aquifer Density Dependent System (FTLOADDS) simulator, version 3.3, which couples the two-dimensional, surface-water flow and solute-transport simulator SWIFT2D with the density-dependent, groundwater flow an solute-transport simulator SEAWAT. The model was calibrated by a trial-and-error method to fit observed groundwater heads, estimated base flow, and measured bay salinity and temperatures from 1996 to 2004, as well as the location of the freshwater-saltwater interface in the aquifer, by adjusting ET rate limiters, canal vertical hydraulic conductance, leakage rate coefficients (transition-layer thickness and hydraulic conductivity), Manning's n value, and delineation of rainfall zones. Although flow budget calculations indicate that precipitation, ET, and groundwater flux into the bay represent a small portion of the overall budget, these factors may be important in controlling salinity in some parts of the bay, for example the southern parts of the bay where the canal system is not extensively developed or controlled. The balance of precipitation and ET during the wet season generally results in a reduction of bay salinity, whereas the balance of precipitation and ET during the dry season generally results in an increase in bay salinity. During years when wet season precipitation is lower than average, for example less than 70 percent total precipitation for an average year, ET could outweigh precipitation over the bay for essentially the entire year. Hypersaline conditions are prone to occur near the end of the dry season because precipitation rates are generally lower, canal discharge rates (which are strongly correlated to precipitation rates) are also generally lower, and ET rates are higher than during the rest of the year. The hypersalinity event of 2004 followed several years of relatively low precipitation and correspondingly reduced canal structure releases and was unusually extensive, continuing into July. Thus, hypersalinity is ultimately the result of a cumulative deficit of precipitation. The model was used to test the effects of possible changes in canal flux and precipitation. Simulation results showed that by increasing, reducing, or modifying canal discharge rates, the effects on salinity in the bay were more pronounced in the northern part of the bay where there are more canals and canal-control structures. By doubling and halving precipitation, the effects on bay salinity were more pronounced in the southern part of the bay than in the northern part of the bay where there are fewer canals and canal-control structures. The model is designed to quantify factors that contribute to hypersaline conditions in Biscayne Bay and may be less appropriate for addressing other issues or examining conditions substantially different from those described in this report. Model results must be interpreted in light of model limitations, which include representation of the system and conceptual model, uncertainty in physical properties used to describe the system or processes, the scale and discretization of the system, and representation of the boundary conditions.

Florida↗

USGS2011

Use of hydrologic and hydrodynamic modeling for ecosystem restoration

Planning and implementation of unprecedented projects for restoring the greater Everglades ecosystem are underway and the hydrologic and hydrodynamic modeling of restoration alternatives has become essential for success of restoration efforts. In view of the complex nature of the South Florida water resources system, regional-scale (system-wide) hydrologic models have been developed and used extensively for the development of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. In addition, numerous subregional-scale hydrologic and hydrodynamic models have been developed and are being used for evaluating project-scale water management plans associated with urban, agricultural, and inland costal ecosystems. The authors provide a comprehensive summary of models of all scales, as well as the next generation models under development to meet the future needs of ecosystem restoration efforts in South Florida. The multiagency efforts to develop and apply models have allowed the agencies to understand the complex hydrologic interactions, quantify appropriate performance measures, and use new technologies in simulation algorithms, software development, and GIS/database techniques to meet the future modeling needs of the ecosystem restoration programs.

Florida↗