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Enzo Boschi

Publications and source records attributed to Enzo Boschi.

4 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2013

Ground motions recorded in Rome during the April 2009 L’Aquila seismic sequence: site response and comparison with ground‐motion predictions based on a global dataset

The mainshock and moderate‐magnitude aftershocks of the 6 April 2009 M 6.3 L’Aquila seismic sequence, about 90 km northeast of Rome, provided the first earthquake ground‐motion recordings in the urban area of Rome. Before those recordings were obtained, the assessments of the seismic hazard in Rome were based on intensity observations and theoretical considerations. The L’Aquila recordings offer an unprecedented opportunity to calibrate the city response to central Apennine earthquakes—earthquakes that have been responsible for the largest damage to Rome in historical times. Using the data recorded in Rome in April 2009, we show that (1) published theoretical predictions of a 1 s resonance in the Tiber valley are confirmed by observations showing a significant amplitude increase in response spectra at that period, (2) the empirical soil‐transfer functions inferred from spectral ratios are satisfactorily fit through 1D models using the available geological, geophysical, and laboratory data, but local variability can be large for individual events, (3) response spectra for the motions recorded in Rome from the L’Aquila earthquakes are significantly amplified in the radial component at periods near 1 s, even at a firm site on volcanic rocks, and (4) short‐period response spectra are smaller than expected when compared to ground‐motion predictions from equations based on a global dataset, whereas the observed response spectra are higher than expected for periods near 1 s.

Rome↗
USGS2004

Quantifying probabilities of volcanic events: The example of volcanic hazard at Mount Vesuvius

We describe an event tree scheme to quantitatively estimate both long- and short-term volcanic hazard. The procedure is based on a Bayesian approach that produces a probability estimation of any possible event in which we are interested and can make use of all available information including theoretical models, historical and geological data, and monitoring observations. The main steps in the procedure are (1) to estimate an a priori probability distribution based upon theoretical knowledge, (2) to modify that using past data, and (3) to modify it further using current monitoring data. The scheme allows epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties to be dealt with in a formal way, through estimation of probability distributions at each node of the event tree. We then describe an application of the method to the case of Mount Vesuvius. Although the primary intent of the example is to illustrate the methodology, one result of this application merits special mention. The present emergency response plan for Mount Vesuvius is referenced to a maximum expected event (MEE), the largest out of all the possible eruptions within the next few decades. Our calculation suggest that there is a nonnegligible (1-20%) chance that the next eruption could be larger than that stipulated in the present MEE. The methodology allows all assumptions and thresholds to be clearly identified and provides a rational means for their revision if new data or information are obtained. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Mount Vesuvius↗
USGS2001

Solving the dynamic rupture problem with different numerical approaches and constitutive laws

We study the dynamic initiation, propagation and arrest of a 2-D in-plane shear rupture by solving the elastodynamic equation by using both a boundary integral equation method and a finite difference approach. For both methods we adopt different constitutive laws: a slip-weakening (SW) law, with constant weakening rate, and rate- and state-dependent friction laws (Dieterich-Ruina). Our numerical procedures allow the use of heterogeneous distributions of constitutive parameters along the fault for both formulations. We first compare the two solution methods with an SW law, emphasizing the required stability conditions to achieve a good resolution of the cohesive zone and to avoid artificial complexity in the solutions. Our modelling results show that the two methods provide very similar time histories of dynamic source parameters. We point out that, if a careful control of resolution and stability is performed, the two methods yield identical solutions. We have also compared the rupture evolution resulting from an SW and a rate- and state-dependent friction law. This comparison shows that despite the different constitutive formulations, a similar behaviour is simulated during the rupture propagation and arrest. We also observe a crack tip bifurcation and a jump in rupture velocity (approaching the P-wave speed) with the Dieterich-Ruina (DR) law. The rupture arrest at a barrier (high strength zone) and the barrier-healing mechanism are also reproduced by this law. However, this constitutive formulation allows the simulation of a more general and complex variety of rupture behaviours. By assuming different heterogeneous distributions of the initial constitutive parameters, we are able to model a barrier-healing as well as a self-healing process. This result suggests that if the heterogeneity of the constitutive parameters is taken into account, the different healing mechanisms can be simulated. We also study the nucleation phase duration Tn, defined as the time necessary for the crack to reach the half-length Ic. We compare the Tn values resulting from distinct simulations calculated using different constitutive laws and different sets of constitutive parameters. Our results confirm that the DR law provides a different description of the nucleation process than the SW law adopted in this study. We emphasize that the DR law yields a complete description of the rupture process, which includes the most prominent features of SW.

Geophysical Journal International↗