Geology topics

Emma E. Hudson-Doyle

Publications and source records attributed to Emma E. Hudson-Doyle.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2024

A decade of shaking in the Garden City: The dynamics of preparedness, perceptions, and beliefs in Canterbury, New Zealand, and implications for earthquake information

This study explored earthquake preparedness over time - before, during, and 10 years after the Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES) in Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ). Surveys of Canterbury residents were conducted in 2009, 2013 and again in 2021, using variables derived from Community Engagement Theory (CET). The surveys measured earthquake perceptions and beliefs, participation and engagement, and preparedness actions. Results were compared across the three samples. Findings indicate that perceptions and beliefs (e.g. risk perception, outcome expectancy beliefs), and types of preparedness actions taken (e.g. collection of survival items, structural preparedness, community and agency relationships), differed over time, depending on people’s experiences before, during, and after the CES. For example, during and after the CES people were more likely to believe that preparing provided a benefit to daily life, but less likely to think it could reduce property damage, perhaps due to people’s experiences of disruption and damage during the earthquakes. An understanding of such dynamics can assist with the provision and timing of risk and preparedness information. This study highlights the importance of providing applicable and actionable preparedness information, that is relevant to people’s experiences, throughout an earthquake sequence. Such information might evolve and change in focus over time depending on risks and needs. Focus could also be given to information that builds peoples beliefs and capacities to undertake preparedness in evolving situations. Understanding preparedness in the context of different experiences and timeframes is useful in helping update models such as the CET, where the dynamics of time might be better incorporated.

Canterbury↗

USGS2020

Forecasting for a fractured land: A case study of the communication and use of aftershock forecasts from the Mw 7.8 2016 Kaikōura earthquake in Aotearoa New Zealand

Operational earthquake forecasts (OEFs) are represented as time‐dependent probabilities of future earthquake hazard and risk. These probabilities can be presented in a variety of formats, including tables, maps, and text‐based scenarios. In countries such as Aotearoa New Zealand, the U.S., and Japan, OEFs have been released by scientific organizations to agencies and the public, with the intent of providing information about future earthquake hazard and risk, so that people can use this information to inform their decisions and activities. Despite questions being raised about the utility of OEF for decision‐making, past earthquake events have shown that agencies and the public have indeed made use of such forecasts. Responses have included making decisions about safe access into buildings, cordoning, demolition safety, timing of infrastructure repair and rebuild, insurance, postearthquake building standards, postevent land‐use planning, and public communication about aftershocks. To add to this body of knowledge, we undertook a survey to investigate how agencies and GNS Science staff used OEFs that were communicated following the M w 7.8 2016 Kaikōura earthquake in Aotearoa New Zealand. We found that agencies utilized OEFs in many of the ways listed previously, and we document individual employee’s actions taken in their home‐life context. Challenges remain, however, regarding the interpretation of probabilistic information and applying this to practical decision‐making. We suggest that science agencies cannot expect nontechnical users to understand and utilize forecasts without additional support. This might include developing a diversity of audience‐relevant OEF information for communication purposes, alongside advice on how such information could be utilized.

northern part of South Island↗