Geology topics

Emily C. Kelsey

Publications and source records attributed to Emily C. Kelsey.

12 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2023

Predicted distribution of ‘ua‘u (Hawaiian petrel Pterodroma sandwichensis) nest sites on Haleakalā, Maui

Haleakalā National Park and montane areas on east Maui, Hawaiian Archipelago, support critical nesting habitat for endangered ‘ua‘u Hawaiian petrel Pterodroma sandwichensis . Habitat loss, non-native predators, and damage by feral ungulates are limiting factors for ground-nesting petrels at Haleakalā and throughout Hawai‘i. Because nesting habitats differ among the Hawaiian Islands, habitat distribution modeling for Hawaiian petrel has been island specific. Based on 2453 known nest site locations, we provide the first landscape-scale predictive model describing relative abundance and habitat available for nesting petrels throughout upper Haleakalā (1830 to 3055 m). We evaluated (principal components analyses and Pearson’s correlation) 13 spatial landscape and climate predictor variables associated with nest sites and the background landscape followed by random forest modeling to predict nest site density. Six variables (elevation, slope, topographic position index at 2 scales, heat load index, presence-absence ash/cinder, and presence-absence vegetation) indicated nest sites occurred non-randomly throughout the central part of the summit and crater; greatest concentrations were predicted along the crater rim and a ridgeline extending southwest from the summit. Moderately high predicted density occurred in the northeastern and northern crater. Lower elevations to the north, west, and south flanks of Haleakalā had relatively fewer predicted nest sites. Although we focused on higher elevations on Haleakalā, there is no reason to suspect that conservation efforts would not be successful at lower elevations, provided nesting petrels were protected from invasive predators, grazing ungulates, and significant land alteration.

Hawaii↗

USGS2022

Aerial counts for surface-nesting seabirds at Lehua Island and Moku Manu Islet and Ulupaʻu Crater, Oʻahu, in 2019

Among important seabird breeding sites in the main Hawaiian Islands, Lehua Island offshore Niʻihau and Moku Manu Islets offshore Oʻahu support diverse and abundant seabird breeding populations. Both offshore islands provide excellent nesting habitat for surface-nesting boobies ( Sula spp .) and terns but, of the two, only Moku Manu supports relatively large breeding populations of Sooty Tern ( Onychoprion fuscatus ) and Brown Noddy ( Anous stolidus ). Additionally, Ulupaʻu Crater, near Moku Manu on Oʻahu, is one of only a few sites within the eight main Hawaiian islands and the only site on the main island of Oʻahu that supports a nesting population of Red-footed Boobies ( Sula sula ). Despite their importance for informing renewable offshore energy planning off Hawaiʻi, robust and accurate seabird population survey data exist and are available for some locations (Lehua; Raine and others, 2021), but at Moku Manu and Ulupa‘u Crater, recent information are not yet available (E. VanderWerf, written commun. 2021). In this study, we completed comprehensive aerial photographic counts at these three sites for six surface-nesting seabird species present during the 2019 breeding season: Brown Booby ( Sula leucogaster ), Red-footed Booby, Masked Booby ( S. dactylatra ), Great Frigatebird ( Fregata minor ), Sooty Tern, and Brown Noddy. We estimated 5,782, 102, and 1,446 nesting pairs of Red-footed Boobies at Lehua, Ulupaʻu Crater, and Moku Manu, respectively. At Lehua and Moku Manu, we estimated 692 and 65 nesting pairs of Brown Boobies, respectively. At Moku Manu, we estimated 95 nesting pairs of Masked Boobies, one of only three nesting locales for this species in the main Hawaiian Islands. Based on digital photograph counts of sampled areas and area-based extrapolation, we estimated 17,938 terns (mostly Sooty Tern with fewer Brown Noddy) on Moku Manu. We observed Great Frigatebirds roosting at the two island sites, but we did not detect any sign of nesting for this species. We found that inter-observer counts for behavioral classifications (nesting, roosting, unknown) ranged in precision (D=0.13–0.31), but generally, counts among photographs accounting for all seabird targets (D=0.10–0.22) and for boobies classified as nesting (D=0.13–0.18) were more precise than for roosting and unknown categories (D=0.13–0.31), indicating that at least some of the variation in count precision relates to differences in how independent counters identified behavioral classifications. The nesting population sizes (and number of terns present on Moku Manu) present during aerial counts likely are minimum estimates because individuals among these species can exhibit asynchronous nesting phenologies, and not all members of the nesting populations would be expected to be attending the sites when we surveyed. The results of these counts provide current and accurate abundance estimates for these species that can serve as benchmarks for future management and monitoring and as important components of population-level assessments aimed at quantifying seabird vulnerability to potential offshore wind energy development in the main Hawaiian Islands.

Hawaii↗

USGS2022

Abundance and productivity of Marbled Murrelets ( Brachyramphus marmoratus ) off central California during the 2020 and 2021 breeding seasons

Marbled murrelets ( Brachyramphus marmoratus ) have been listed as “endangered” by the State of California and “threatened” by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service since 1992 in California, Oregon, and Washington. Information regarding marbled murrelet abundance, distribution, population trends, and habitat associations is critical for risk assessment, effective management, evaluation of conservation efficacy, and ultimately, to meet federal- and state-mandated recovery efforts for this species. During June–August 2020 and 2021, the U.S. Geological Survey Western Ecological Research Center continued previously established, long-term (1999–present), at-sea surveys to estimate abundance and productivity of marbled murrelets in U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Conservation Zone 6 (San Francisco Bay to Point Sur in central California). The abundance estimated for the entire study area was 470 birds (95-percent confidence interval, 313–707 birds) in 2020 and 402 birds (95-percent confidence interval, 219–737 birds) in 2021. Estimated abundances for both years are comparable with most prior years of study. We estimated reproductive productivity (calculated as the hatch-year to after-hatch-year ratio) after date-correcting hatch-year and after-hatch-year counts to account for birds expected to be absent from the water while inland at nests. The date-corrected juvenile ratio was 0.018±0.011 standard error in 2020 and 0.041±0.024 standard error in 2021. We updated a comprehensive database of all Zone 6 marbled murrelet survey data since 1999 with 2020–21 data to allow scientists and managers to evaluate established survey methods and assess trends in abundance and productivity estimates.

California↗

USGS2022

Framework for assessing and mitigating the impacts of offshore wind energy development on marine birds

Offshore wind energy development (OWED) is rapidly expanding globally and has the potential to contribute significantly to renewable energy portfolios. However, development of infrastructure in the marine environment presents risks to wildlife. Marine birds in particular have life history traits that amplify population impacts from displacement and collision with offshore wind infrastructure. Here, we present a broadly applicable framework to assess and mitigate the impacts of OWED on marine birds. We outline existing techniques to quantify impact via monitoring and modeling (e.g., collision risk models, population viability analysis), and present a robust mitigation framework to avoid, minimize, or compensate for OWED impacts. Our framework addresses impacts within the context of multiple stressors across multiple wind energy developments. We also present technological and methodological approaches that can improve impact estimation and mitigation. We highlight compensatory mitigation as a tool that can be incorporated into regulatory frameworks to mitigate impacts that cannot be avoided or minimized via siting decisions or alterations to OWED infrastructure or operation. Our framework is intended as a globally-relevant approach for assessing and mitigating OWED impacts on marine birds that may be adapted to existing regulatory frameworks in regions with existing or planned OWED.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2020

Population estimates for selected breeding seabirds at Kīlauea Point National Wildlife Refuge, Kauaʻi, in 2019

Kīlauea Point National Wildlife Refuge (KPNWR) is an important seabird breeding site located at the northeastern tip of Kauaʻi in the main Hawaiian Islands. Despite the regional significance of KPNWR as one of the most important breeding sites for red-tailed tropicbirds ( Phaethon rubricauda ), red-footed boobies ( Sula sula ), and wedge-tailed shearwaters ( Ardenna pacifica ) in the main Hawaiian Islands, robust and accurate population surveys have not been consistently conducted and recent information is lacking. In this study, we completed comprehensive population surveys for these three species during the 2019 breeding season. Using direct censusing methods (ground-searching, visual and photographic counts), we determined that 387 red-tailed tropicbird and 5,049 red-footed booby breeding pairs nested at KPNWR in 2019. Additionally, we performed surveys of aerially displaying tropicbirds to estimate a potential population of 30 white-tailed tropicbird ( Phaethon lepturus ) breeding pairs at KPNWR. Using a stratified-random plot-sampling method, we estimated that 20,998 wedge-tailed shearwater pairs nested at KPNWR in 2019. The breeding population size results in this study are greater than those reported in the past for KPNWR. We suggest that the red-tailed tropicbird breeding population has increased since the mid-2000s (when population estimates were last made), whereas red-footed booby numbers likely have remained similar and 2019 results show an increase from past estimates because of the more comprehensive methods used in this study. The results of these surveys provide current and accurate population sizes for these species that can serve as (1) benchmarks for future management and monitoring at KPNWR and (2) important components of population-level assessments of seabird vulnerability to potential offshore wind energy development in the main Hawaiian Islands.

Hawaii↗

USGS2020

Abundance and productivity of marbled murrelets ( Brachyramphus marmoratus ) off central California during the 2019 breeding season

Marbled murrelets ( Brachyramphus marmoratus ) have been listed as “endangered” by the State of California and “threatened” by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service since 1992 in California, Oregon, and Washington. Information regarding marbled murrelet abundance, distribution, population trends, and habitat associations is critical for risk assessment, effective management, evaluation of conservation efficacy, and ultimately, to meet Federal and State recovery efforts for this species. During June–August 2019, the U.S. Geological Survey Western Ecological Research Center continued previously established, long-term (1996–2019), at-sea surveys to estimate abundance and productivity of marbled murrelets in U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Conservation Zone 6 (San Francisco Bay to Point Sur in central California). Using conventional distance sampling methods, we estimated marbled murrelet abundance using 125 detections of 216 murrelets (mean group size, 1.72) observed on 8 surveys. The abundance estimated for the entire study area using all surveys in 2019 was 404 birds (95-percent confidence interval, 272–601 birds). Estimated abundance from 2019 is comparable to most prior years of study. In 2019, we estimated reproductive productivity (calculated as the hatch-year [HY] to after-hatch-year [AHY] ratio) using three detections of three HY murrelets observed on six surveys. After date-correcting HY and AHY counts to account for birds expected to be absent from the water while inland at nests, the date-corrected juvenile ratio was 0.025±0.020 standard error. We discuss changes in methodologies during 1996–2019 that could be addressed in re-analysis of this long-term dataset. We updated a synthesized database of all Zone 6 marbled murrelet survey data since 1999 with 2019 data to allow scientists and managers to evaluate established survey methods and assess trends in abundance and productivity estimates.

California↗

USGS2019

Trends in mammalian predator control trapping events intended to protect ground-nesting, endangered birds at Haleakalā National Park, Hawaiʻi: 2000–14

Predation and habitat degradation by non-native species are principal terrestrial threats to the federally endangered Hawaiian Petrel (ʻuaʻu, Pterodroma sandwichensis ) and Hawaiian Goose (nēnē, Branta sandvicensis ) within Haleakalā National Park (HALE), Maui, Hawaiʻi. Since 1981, HALE has maintained a network of live traps to control invasive mammalian predators and protect these endangered birds. To evaluate trapping efficiency in HALE, we evaluated four types of trap outcomes for the years 2000–14: Bait Lost (62 percent), No Event (23 percent), Trap Triggered (10 percent), and Predator Event (Rat Caught, Cat Caught, or Mongoose Caught; 4 percent). We used a multinomial logistic regression model to explore trends in the probabilities of broad outcomes (No Event, Other Event [Bait Lost or Trap Triggered], or Predator Event [Rat Caught, Cat Caught, or Mongoose Caught]). Temporal variations in the probabilities of No Event, Other Event, or Predator Event were best explained by ʻuaʻu season (off-season, pre-laying, incubation, or nestling), month, year, and seasonal rainfall with greater probabilities of Predator Event during the ʻuaʻu nestling period (July–October). The probability of Predator Event or Other Event decreased with increased rainfall. Spatial analysis showed that percent vegetative cover and vegetation type best explained variations in the probabilities of trapping outcomes with the probability of Predator Event being greatest in developed and tree covered areas. The proportion of trapping events that resulted in Rat Caught was at least 20 times greater than the proportions of events resulting in Cat or Mongoose Caught throughout the 15-year management period. Temporal analysis showed that season, year, and maximum temperature best explained variations in probabilities of Predator Event; the probability of Rat Caught was greatest during the ʻuaʻu pre-laying and incubation periods (February–June), was greater during periods of warmer maximum temperatures, and overall, increased over the 15-year management period. The probability of Mongoose Caught was greatest during the ʻuaʻu offseason (November–January), decreased through time (2000–14), and decreased with increasing weekly maximum temperatures. Trends in Cat Caught were hard to detect because of small sample sizes, though slight trends indicated cat captures were most frequent during the ʻuaʻu off season and less frequent through time (2000–14). The probability of a Cat Caught event was also negatively correlated with weekly temperatures. Spatial analysis showed elevation best explained variations in probabilities of capture for rats, cats, and mongoose. Overall, predator catches were fewer at higher elevations, and of predators caught at higher elevations, the clear majority were rats. Our results are being used by HALE Endangered Wildlife Management staff to evaluate existing methods for predator control and efficacy of existing trap-based control strategies intended to protect ʻuaʻu and nēnē.

Hawaii↗

USGS2019

Abundance and productivity of marbled murrelets (Brachyramphus marmoratus) off central California during the 2018 breeding season

Executive Summary Marbled murrelets ( Brachyramphus marmoratus ) have been listed as “endangered” by the State of California and “threatened” by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service since 1992 in California, Oregon, and Washington. Information regarding marbled murrelet abundance, distribution, population trends, and habitat associations is critical for risk assessment, effective management, evaluation of conservation efficacy, and ultimately, to meet Federal- and State-mandated recovery efforts for this species. During June–August 2018, the U.S. Geological Survey Western Ecological Research Center continued previously established, long-term (1999–2018), at-sea surveys to estimate abundance and productivity of marbled murrelets in U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Conservation Zone 6 (San Francisco Bay to Point Sur in central California). Using conventional distance sampling methods, we estimated marbled murrelet abundance using 137 detections of 227 individuals observed on 9 surveys. The abundance estimated for the entire study area using all surveys in 2018 was 370 birds (95-percent confidence interval, 250–546 birds). Estimated abundance from 2018 is comparable to most prior years of study, except for 2001–03, when greater abundances were estimated. In 2018, we estimated reproductive productivity (calculated as the hatch-year [HY] to after-hatch-year [AHY] ratio) using four detections of four HY individuals observed on six surveys. After date-correcting HY and AHY counts to account for birds expected to be absent from the water while inland at nests, the date-corrected juvenile ratio was 0.047 ± 0.024 standard error. We updated a synthesized database of all Zone 6 marbled murrelet survey data since 1999 with 2018 data to allow scientists and managers to evaluate established survey methods and assess trends in abundance and productivity estimates.

California↗

USGS2019

Synopsis of research programs that can provide baseline and monitoring information for offshore energy activities in the Pacific region: Seabird and marine mammal surveys in the Pacific region

We assembled and tabulated information about marine bird and mammal research and monitoring programs that could provide data needed to support environmental risk assessments. This included identifying ongoing or completed research programs that contain information on species and habitats sensitive to offshore energy activities and that could provide baseline and monitoring data to understand and mitigate potential impacts of offshore energy development in the Southern California Planning Area, Washington-Oregon Planning Area, and the Hawaiian OCS of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM). When available, we also included information regarding programs in Alaska, but the catalog for Alaska is not comprehensive. We included programs that assessed the distribution, abundance, or biology of marine birds (seabirds, waterbirds, or sea ducks) and marine mammals (cetaceans, pinnipeds, and sea otters), some of which are protected species under the Endangered Species Act (ESA of 1973) or the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA of 1972). We canvassed data providers with spreadsheet or web-based survey forms. The marine bird survey returned information on research and monitoring efforts for 28 parameters across 46 species from 36 entities. The marine mammal survey returned information on research and monitoring efforts for 24 parameters across 22 marine mammal species from 22 entities. We tabulated the parameters by species to show which parameters are most commonly measured and where there might be information gaps. Both marine bird and marine mammal research and monitoring are widespread throughout the Pacific, with 535 entries for marine mammals and 1,911 entries for marine birds. Although we provide summaries of key aspects within research and monitoring programs, the associated database can be further queried in several ways. Versioning of this database format essentially creates a “living database” that can be updated in the future as new information becomes available.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2018

Abundance and productivity of marbled murrelets (Brachyramphus marmoratus) off central California during the 2017 breeding season

Marbled murrelets ( Brachyramphus marmoratus ) have been listed as “Endangered” by the State of California and “Threatened” by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service since 1992 in California, Oregon, and Washington. Information regarding marbled murrelet abundance, distribution, population trends, and habitat associations is critical for risk assessment, effective management and evaluation of conservation efficacy, and ultimately to meet Federal- and State-mandated recovery efforts for this species. During June–August 2017, the U.S. Geological Survey Western Ecological Research Center continued previously established, long-term (1999–2016), at-sea surveys to estimate abundance and productivity of marbled murrelets in U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Conservation Zone 6 (central California—San Francisco Bay to Monterey Bay). Using conventional distance sampling methods, we estimated marbled murrelet abundance using 189 detections of 321 individuals observed on nine unique surveys. The abundance estimated for the entire study area using all surveys in 2017 was 530 birds (95-percent confidence interval, 384–732 birds). Estimated abundance from 2017 is comparable to most prior years of study, except for 2008 and 2015, which had anomalously low abundances. We estimated productivity (calculated as the hatch-year [HY] to after-hatch-year [AHY] ratio) in 2017 using three detections of three individuals observed in six surveys. After date-correcting HY and AHY counts to account for birds expected to be absent from the water while inland at nests, the date-corrected juvenile ratio was 0.022 ± 0.014 standard error. We created a synthesized database of all marbled murrelet survey data from 1999 to 2017 to allow scientists and managers to evaluate established survey methods and assess trends in abundance and productivity estimates. Future modifications of survey design could help reduce variance in abundance estimation.

California↗

USGS2018

Collision and displacement vulnerability to offshore wind energy infrastructure among marine birds of the Pacific Outer Continental Shelf

Marine birds are vulnerable to collision with and displacement by offshore wind energy infrastructure (OWEI). Here we present the first assessment of marine bird vulnerability to potential OWEI in the California Current System portion of the U.S. Pacific Outer Continental Shelf (POCS). Using population size, demography, life history, flight heights, and avoidance behavior for 62 seabird and 19 marine water bird species that occur in the POCS, we present and apply equations to calculate Population Vulnerability, Collision Vulnerability, and Displacement Vulnerability to OWEI for each species. Species with greatest Population vulnerability included those listed as species of concern (e.g., Least Tern [ Sternula antillarum ], Marbled Murrelet [ Brachyramphus marmoratus ], Pink-footed Shearwater [ Puffinus creatopus ]) and resident year-round species with small population sizes (e.g., Ashy Storm-Petrel [ Oceanodroma homochroa ], Brandt's Cormorant [ Phalacrocorax penicillatus ], and Brown Pelican [ Pelecanus occidentalis ]). Species groups with the greatest Collision Vulnerability included jaegers/skuas, pelicans, terns and gulls that spend significant amounts of time flying at rotor sweep zone height and don't show macro-avoidance behavior (avoidance of entire OWEI area). Species groups with the greatest Displacement Vulnerability show high macro-avoidance behavior and low habitat flexibility and included loons, grebes, sea ducks, and alcids. Using at-sea survey data from the southern POCS, we combined species-specific vulnerabilities described above with at-sea species densities to assess vulnerabilities spatially. Spatial vulnerability densities were greatest in areas with high species densities (e.g., near-shore areas) and locations where species with high vulnerability were found in abundance. Our vulnerability assessment helps understand and minimize potential impacts of OWEI infrastructure on marine birds in the POCS and could inform management decisions.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS2016

Collision and displacement vulnerability among marine birds of the California Current System associated with offshore wind energy infrastructure

With growing climate change concerns and energy constraints, there is an increasing need for renewable energy sources within the United States and globally. Looking forward, offshore wind-energy infrastructure (OWEI) has the potential to produce a significant proportion of the power needed to reach our Nation’s renewable energy goal. Offshore wind-energy sites can capitalize open areas within Federal waters that have persistent, high winds with large energy production potential. Although there are few locations in the California Current System (CCS) where it would be acceptable to build pile-mounted wind turbines in waters less than 50 m deep, the development of technology able to support deep-water OWEI (>200 m depth) could enable wind-energy production in the CCS. As with all human-use of the marine environment, understanding the potential impacts of wind-energy infrastructure on the marine ecosystem is an integral part of offshore wind-energy research and planning. Herein, we present a comprehensive database to quantify marine bird vulnerability to potential OWEI in the CCS (see https://doi.org/10.5066/F79C6VJ0 ). These data were used to quantify marine bird vulnerabilities at the population level. For 81 marine bird species present in the CCS, we created three vulnerability indices: Population Vulnerability, Collision Vulnerability, and Displacement Vulnerability. Population Vulnerability was used as a scaling factor to generate two comprehensive indicies: Population Collision Vulnerability (PCV) and Population Displacement Vulnerability (PDV). Within the CCS, pelicans, terns (Forster’s [ Sterna forsteri ], Caspian [ Hydroprogne caspia ], Elegant [ Thalasseus elegans ], and Least Tern [ Sternula antillarum ]), gulls (Western [ Larus occidentalis ] and Bonaparte’s Gull [ Chroicocephalus philadelphia ]), South Polar Skua ( Stercorarius maccormicki ), and Brandt’s Cormorant ( Phalacrocorax penicillatus ) had the greatest PCV scores. Brown Pelican ( Pelicanus occidentalis ) had the greatest overall PCV score. Some alcids (Scripps’s Murrelet [ Synthliboramphus scrippsi ], Marbled Murrelet [ Brachyramphus marmoratus ], and Tufted Puffin [ Fratercula cirrhata ]), terns (Elegant and Least Lern), and loons (Yellow-billed [ Gavia adamsii ] and Common Loon [ G. immer ]) had the greatest PDV scores. Ashy Storm-Petrel ( Oceanodroma homochroa ) had the greatest overall PDV score. To help inform decisions that will impact seabird conservation, vulnerability assessment results can now be combined with recent marine bird at-sea distribution and abundance data for the CCS to evaluate vulnerability areas where OWEI development is being considered. Lastly, it is important to note that as new information about seabird behavior and populations in the CCS becomes available, this database can be easily updated and modified.

Open-File Report↗