Geology topics

Elizabeth Kari Orning

Publications and source records attributed to Elizabeth Kari Orning.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

A regional simulation modeling framework for evaluating invasive annual grass management across the sagebrush biome

Invasive annual grasses (IAG) continue to spread within the sagebrush biome of the western United States, degrading plant communities and wildlife habitat, decreasing forage for ranching livelihoods, and heightening wildfire risk. Effective management of IAGs requires action and long-term strategic planning across the sagebrush biome, but the cumulative effects of IAG treatments over time and space are not well understood, especially over broad extents defined for strategies like the Sagebrush Conservation Design. We developed a simulation model and sampling framework that allow local-scale actions to be ‘scaled up’ to evaluate large-scale regional and biome-wide management strategy outcomes. We worked with natural resource managers and experts to co-develop a spatially explicit state-and-transition simulation model of IAG dynamics in sagebrush landscapes that can be used to evaluate alternative management strategies. We evaluated our framework by contrasting two baseline scenarios in terms of their long-term effects on the sagebrush biome. We show that focusing management efforts on moderate to high IAG cover was effective at reducing full conversion to IAGs but failed to prevent widespread establishment of IAGs in core sagebrush areas, exposing them to increased risk of wildfire and wildlife habitat degradation. The results of our model help quantify the extent of the problem that IAGs pose to sagebrush ecosystems given current knowledge and management efforts. Our framework provides a platform to explore alternative management strategy outcomes and can help managers develop informed conservation plans with realistic expectations for return on investment of resources committed to sagebrush landscapes.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nev↗

USGS2025

Greater sage-grouse seasonal habitat associations: A review and considerations for interpretation and management applications

Habitat features needed by wildlife can change in composition throughout the year, particularly in temperate ecosystems, leading to distinct seasonal spatial-use patterns. Studies of species-habitat associations therefore often focus on understanding relationships within discrete seasonal periods with common goals of prediction (e.g., habitat mapping) and inference (e.g., interpreting model coefficients). Across the range of the greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) of western North America, the increasing use of high-frequency tracking devices has led to a surge in habitat association studies covering multiple temporal periods and spatial extents. We reviewed the literature for seasonal habitat association studies corresponding to the second and third orders of selection (Johnson 1980). Our objectives were to summarize the methodological approaches used to estimate habitat associations to aid understanding in cross-study comparisons and identify common habitat features reported as selected or avoided within different seasonal periods. We reviewed 71 second- and third-order studies published from 2007–2023 that evaluated covariates collected in a geographic information system (GIS) and modeled probability of selection or intensity of use. The most common study design evaluated a single level of selection (third-order) and was multi-scale (i.e., covariates were measured at varying spatial grains). The most common model approach estimated habitat associations using resource selection functions (RSFs) fit with logistic regression. Studies mostly focused on the breeding periods and winter, but all seasons throughout the annual cycle were covered. There was clear support for selection of sagebrush and avoidance of trees and rugged terrain across seasons, and strong selection of mesic conditions in summer. However, habitat associations for most covariates were mixed, with proportionally equivalent selection and avoidance reported, even within the same seasons. Different factors hampered cross-study comparisons, including variation in study design, but additional contributors likely included important context-dependent habitat associations, such as functional responses to changing habitat availability. We suggest collaborative studies leveraging multiple datasets can help improve seasonal habitat inference by removing the effects of variable study designs.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2024

Imperiled Great Basin terminal lakes: Synthesizing ecological and hydrological science gaps and research needs for waterbird conservation

Terminal lakes are declining globally because of human water demands, drought, and climate change. Through literature synthesis and feedback from the resource and conservation community, we review the state of research for terminal lakes in the Great Basin of the United States, which support millions of waterbirds annually, to prioritize ecological and hydrologic information needs. From an ecological perspective, research priorities include measuring the underlying differences in waterbird resource selection and distribution, migratory connectivity, abiotic factors that interact with prey densities to affect prey availability, and waterbird fitness or demography. Integrated links between water availability, water quality, and food webs are lacking in the literature. Scarce water availability data hinder the current knowledge of water extraction and evapotranspiration rates. Research that can address these priorities would help advance our understanding of how the Great Basin terminal lakes function as an interrelated system and support conservation efforts to reverse the decline of these critical lakes.

California, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗

USGS2024

Modeling the potential habitat gained by planting sagebrush in burned landscapes

Many revegetation projects are intended to benefit wildlife species. Yet, there are few a priori evaluations that assess the potential efficiency of restoration actions in recovering wildlife habitats. We developed a spatial vegetation–habitat recovery model to gauge the degree to which field planting strategies could be expected to recover multi-factor habitat conditions for wildlife following wildfires. We simulated a wildfire footprint, multiple sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) planting scenarios, and tracked projected vegetation growth for 15 years post-fire. We used a vegetation transition framework to track and estimate the degree to which revegetation could accelerate habitat restoration for a Greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus ) population within the Great Basin, western United States. We assessed the amount of habitat 15 years post-fire to estimate the degree to which revegetation could be expected to accelerate habitat restoration. Our results highlight a potential disconnect between the expansive areas required by wide-ranging wildlife such as sage-grouse and the relatively small areas that planting treatments have created. Habitat restorations and planting strategies that are intended to benefit sage-grouse may only speed up localized habitat restoration. This study provides an example of how linked revegetation–habitat modeling approaches can scope the expected return on restoration investment for habitat improvements and support the strategic use of limited restoration resources.

Nevada↗

USGS2023

Using state-and-transition simulation models to scope post-fire success in restoring greater sage-grouse habitat

Wildfires are increasingly modifying wildlife habitat in the western United States and managers need ways to scope the pace and degree to which post-fire restoration actions can re-create habitat in dynamic landscapes. We developed a spatially explicit state-transition simulation model (STSM) to project post-fire revegetation and the potential for sage-grouse habitat restoration in sagebrush ecosystems. The model included annual fires, annual grass invasion, conifer encroachment, and projected annual vegetation growth caused by natural regeneration as well as sagebrush seeding and planting. We cross-referenced resulting vegetation maps with greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) habitat needs and evaluated trajectories of potential habitat at three Priority Areas for Conservation in the Great Basin. We compared outcomes among different types of revegetation actions (natural regeneration, seeding, planting), treatment durations, and treatment area sizes. In all scenarios, sagebrush cover was generally insufficient to meet sage-grouse needs for at least a decade post-fire, and the best habitat classes declined or remained at low proportions of landscapes for >50 years post-fire. Under current fire patterns, the pace of habitat restoration is likely to lag behind losses from wildfires. Our results indicate additional efforts beyond sagebrush revegetation actions (e.g., fire suppression, invasive grass treatment) will likely be necessary to maintain and restore areas to meet sage-grouse habitat needs in burned landscapes. Our results also underscore the need for broad-scale habitat restoration strategies that expand the ability to reestablish sagebrush in large, burned areas, as well as strategies for defining which areas should be prioritized for revegetation within the biome. Our landscape models and resulting vegetation maps can be integrated with other restoration prioritization or wildlife monitoring tools that support land manager decision-making. By gauging potential benefits of restoration decisions, our approach can provide information to aid choices on where to invest time, money, and effort and how best to mitigate losses and plan long-term restoration and recovery for landscapes across the sagebrush biome.

Great Basin↗