Geology topics

Elisa Alonso

Publications and source records attributed to Elisa Alonso.

16 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Metallurgical coal—Deposits, production, resources, market dynamics, and supply chain risks

Plain Language Summary Metallurgical coal (met coal; consumed to produce coke for steelmaking) must meet specific chemical and physical specifications. In 2023, the conterminous United States produced 66 million short tons (mst) of met coal, consumed 15.85 mst domestically, exported 51.1 mst, and imported 0.7 mst. Most met coal was produced in the Appalachian Basin, but there are also resources that meet the specifications for met coal in the Western United States.

conterminous United States↗

USGS2025

Understanding market sensitivity: Estimation of supply and demand elasticities for non-fuel minerals

In today’s rapidly changing economic landscape, understanding market responsiveness to price changes and the factors influencing commodity prices has become increasingly relevant. Price elasticities serve as indicators of how variations in market conditions affect supply and demand, providing insights into the sensitivity of commodity markets to price fluctuations. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of price elasticities of supply and demand for 74 non-fuel mineral commodities including precious metals, base metals, minor metals, and industrial minerals that are utilized across various industries. We employ various econometric techniques, including fixed effects models for panel data and two-stage dynamic ordinary least squares (2S-DOLS) alongside autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models for time series analysis, to derive robust estimates of price elasticities. Our findings reveal variability in elasticities among different commodities and indicate that all studied mineral commodities exhibit price inelastic supply and demand in the short run, which we define as one year for the purposes of our analysis, given that the data is all annual. This research provides original estimates of price responsiveness for a wide range of commodities that have not been previously addressed in the literature, thereby enhancing the understanding of market dynamics in the mineral sector. Given that price elasticities can be influenced by factors such as market structure, technological advancements, mining costs, and industry-specific demand drivers, we use variables that serve as proxies for these factors.

Mineral Economics↗

USGS2025

Methodology and technical input for the 2025 U.S. List of Critical Minerals—Assessing the potential effects of mineral commodity supply chain disruptions on the U.S. economy

The Secretary of the Interior, acting through the Director of the U.S. Geological Survey, is tasked by section 7002 (“Mineral Security”) of title VII (“Critical Minerals”) of the Energy Act of 2020 (Public Law 116–260, December 27, 2020, 116th Congress) with reviewing and revising the methodology used to evaluate mineral commodity supply risk and the U.S. List of Critical Minerals (LCM) no less than every 3 years. Following two previous LCM assessments, this analysis represents the latest technical input for evaluating each mineral commodity’s supply risk and determining their recommended status on the LCM. We evaluated mineral commodity supply risk using two criteria: (1) an economic effects assessment that quantified the potential effects of various trade disruption scenarios on the U.S. economy, and (2) an examination of whether the mineral commodity’s U.S. supply chain relied on a sole domestic producer that represented a single point of failure. For the first criterion, postdisruption equilibrium quantities and prices for each mineral commodity were calculated based on their price elasticities of supply and demand and the availability of excess production capacity for each yearlong foreign trade disruption scenario. Subsequently, a nonlinear optimization routine was used with detailed economic input-output tables to estimate the potential economic effects on the U.S. economy of over 1,200 scenarios for 84 mineral commodities. After accounting for the probability of each scenario’s occurrence, the overall results are presented in terms of changes in U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) by individual industry and the economy overall. The results, which ranged from a net decrease in U.S. GDP of nearly $4.5 billion to a net increase of $33 million, largely reflect U.S. import dependency and world production concentration. Using the Jenks natural breaks optimization method, a statistical classification technique, we categorized the mineral commodities into several classes based on this overall risk quantification. Mineral commodities with annualized probability-weighted net decreases in U.S. GDP greater than $2 million were recommended for inclusion on the LCM. If a mineral commodity did not meet the threshold for inclusion on the LCM under the first criterion, its domestic supply chain was examined under the second criterion, which recommended a mineral commodity for inclusion on the LCM if there was only a single domestic producer. Ultimately, the two criteria resulted in the recommendation of the addition of six mineral commodities (in descending risk order, potash, silicon, copper, silver, rhenium, and lead) to and the removal of two mineral commodities (arsenic and tellurium) from the LCM. By using an economic effects assessment, the results of this analysis provide a prioritization that can also be compared directly against other risk analyses and the cost of various risk mitigation strategies.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2025

Modeling interconnected minerals markets with multicommodity supply curves: Examining the copper-cobalt-nickel system

Demand for many of the metals used in the energy transition is expected to grow rapidly. Many of these are by-products, often considered critical because their production responds weakly to prices and is instead tied to the economics of the host mineral. We present a model of prices and production for jointly produced commodities that accounts for interconnectivity between host and by-product markets at the mine level. We demonstrate this method using the copper–cobalt–nickel system, in which approximately 99% of cobalt is a by-product of copper or nickel mining. Our results show that the model more accurately captures the economic benefits of diversified mine outputs than previous approaches. Furthermore, changes in demand drivers for any two commodities produce non-linear effects on production and price. We challenge the prior best-practice assumption that cobalt cannot impact the copper or nickel markets. Recognizing the importance of both copper and cobalt for future electrification, we emphasize that incentivizing the copper industry to reduce cobalt supply risks could inadvertently undermine copper supply.

Nature Communications↗

USGS2025

World minerals outlook—Cobalt, gallium, helium, lithium, magnesium, palladium, platinum, and titanium through 2029

Given the rapid expansion in the demand for mineral commodities that underpin worldwide economic growth and technological advancement, information regarding expected country-level mine production and production capacity is becoming increasingly important to industry stakeholders, end users, and policymakers. Production capacity can limit future supply, depending on how rapidly that capacity is able to expand. Current capacity can be evaluated on the basis of past production. Decreases to future capacity can be taken into account from announcements of planned shutdowns of mines or processing facilities, which are frequently publicized well in advance of such closures. Likewise, capacity expansions, which usually involve multiple stages—such as permitting, financing, and construction (all of which take time)—can also be estimated. As such, it is possible to evaluate midterm future capacity based on estimates of today’s capacities along with consideration of future investment plans. This World Minerals Outlook provides estimated capacities for cobalt, gallium, helium, lithium, magnesium, palladium, platinum, and titanium for 2025 through 2029. The results of this analysis indicate that two mineral commodities important to the manufacture of lithium-ion batteries—cobalt and lithium—are expected to have large capacity growth in the next few years, likely owing to expectations for increased demand for these batteries. For gallium, helium, palladium, and platinum, capacity is expected to remain stable or exhibit moderate growth. Still, these expected capacity levels are higher than current production, allowing for future production growth. The production capacity outlook is opaque for magnesium and titanium metal, which have a significant fraction of current production in nonmarket economies, such as China and Russia. Ultimately, though, where free market conditions prevail, full utilization of capacity potential for those commodities is likely to depend on supply deficits and prices that are above production costs.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2024

Quantifying potential effects of China’s gallium and germanium export restrictions on the U.S. economy

China’s export controls on gallium and germanium exemplify concerns regarding the reliability of supplies of mineral commodities that are essential to economic development, national security, and transition to renewable energy. This report presents a new model that quantifies the potential effects of mineral commodity supply disruptions on the U.S. economy. After calculating postdisruption equilibrium prices and quantities, a nonlinear optimization routine was used along with economic input-output tables to estimate the effects of varying Chinese net export restrictions of gallium and germanium on U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). The results indicated that a complete restriction of China’s net exports of gallium and germanium could cause the U.S. GDP to decrease by $3.1 billion (with lower and upper estimates of $1.7 billion to $8.2 billion) and $0.4 billion ($0.01 billion to $1.1 billion), respectively, if disrupted separately, and $3.4 billion ($1.7 billion to $9.0 billion) if disrupted simultaneously. The proposed model can be applied to other commodities and disruption scenarios.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2024

Grand challenges in anticipating and responding to critical materials supply risks

Critical materials are resources that are vulnerable to supply disruptions, where those disruptions can have significant adverse impacts on society. In the coming years, materials supply risks associated with the energy transition and geopolitics are likely to intensify and new risks are expected to emerge. This perspective identifies three “Grand Challenges” that represent frontier areas for critical materials research and highlights some promising new directions for each area: (1) extending visibility downstream to value-added materials beyond elemental forms; (2) quantifying the risks associated with market dynamics; and (3) developing tools to inform policy interventions. Emerging digital capabilities have the potential to play a significant role addressing long-standing limitations in data quality and access to unlock progress on these challenges. Progress in these areas can equip decision-makers across industry, government, and finance with tools to understand the complexity and uncertainty introduced by these real-world challenges.

Joule↗

USGS2024

Estimating price elasticity of demand for mineral commodities used in lithium-ion batteries in the face of surging demand

The accelerating adoption of clean energy technologies is driving demand for certain mineral commodities like lithium, essential for electric vehicle batteries. Understanding the influence of the energy transition on each market requires examining their supply and demand price elasticities. However, there have only been a limited number of studies that have estimated mineral demand price elasticities in emerging technologies. We empirically estimate the price elasticity demand (PEDs) for mineral commodities used in lithium-ion battery cathodes and anodes—cobalt, graphite, lithium, manganese, and nickel. We also test whether the price elasticities of these mineral commodities have changed due to any structural changes in recent years, given the recent expansion in the sales of electric vehicles. Using Two Stage Least Squared (2SLS) econometric techniques, we find that demand has become less elastic for lithium (-0.11), cobalt (-0.45), nickel (-0.09), and manganese (-0.04) after structural breaks in 2020, 2013, 2009, and 2014, respectively. In contrast, demand for natural amorphous graphite (-0.36), and natural flake graphite (-0.58) remains relatively stable over the time period assessed.

Resources, Conservation and Recycling↗

USGS2024

From exploration to production: Understanding the development dynamics of lithium mining projects

Recently, there has been considerable recent controversy whether current and new lithium mines will be able to supply the rapidly growing needs of the electromobility transition. Mineral exploration projects are typically active for many years, and only some become operational mines. From exploration to production, the projects go through several stages of characterisation and evaluation. At each stage, decisions are made by companies and stakeholders to advance, continue or stop the project. This is a complex process, and even projects with very similar geological and technical characteristics may take very different trajectories, depending on external factors such as global market conditions and local regulatory environments. The present study investigates the dynamics of this process for lithium exploration projects. A global database of 397 lithium projects was compiled, covering their progression through major development stages between 2004 and 2022. Ordinal logistic regression was used for the statistical analysis of this data. Different explanatory variables were tested, including economic, geological, technical, and geographic factors, to identify the best predictors for project progress at each development stage. The results suggest an essential role for lithium carbonate prices, and a variable role for other factors at each stage. Critically, the already elapsed lead time and project economics, which are traditionally considered important for the prediction of the start-up of individual mines, do not appear to be relevant in all cases. The results provide important insights into the dynamics of lithium supply and may eventually allow more realistic forecasts to be made for future lithium market dynamics.

Resources Policy↗

USGS2023

Rare earth element sources, end-use demand trends, and hydrometallurgical separations

Rare earth elements are increasing in demand due to the movement towards electrification. In particular, there is a growing need for high performance rare earth permanent magnets for motors and generators used to convert electrical energy to mechanical energy, and vice versa. Current trends in rare earth demand are reviewed and discussed as the specific rare earth metal demand can influence the choice of feed material and process selection. Australia has the potential to increase the supply of these metals. Rare earth sources in Australia are briefly reviewed, with some discussion on the Mary Kathleen Uranium Tailings opportunity. Much of the cost of recovering rare earths is in the challenging chemical separations, some examples are provided using equilibrium chemical thermodynamic diagrams to explain the specific leaching and precipitation reactions.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2022

Mapping first to final uses for rare earth elements, globally and in the United States

Estimating the material flows of rare earth elements (REEs) is essential to understanding which industries are most vulnerable to potential REE supply disruptions which, in turn, may inform policy recommendations aimed at reducing the supply risk. However, the REEs are a group of mineral commodities characterized by highly uncertain estimates of supply and demand due to the REE market's complexity, opacity, and small size. In this study, a streamlined methodology was applied to map mineral commodity first-use to final-use applications and to estimate total requirements at the national level based on available industrial data for final-use finished goods. This analysis examines REEs both as a group and individually, showing that total US requirements are between 15% and 16.5% of world requirements for the year 2015, the latest year with the most complete information available. The findings shed light on US industrial capabilities by revealing the discrepancy between the types of REEs that go into US raw material consumption and those that are contained in embedded consumption. For instance, given the United States’ large oil refining industry, US raw material consumption of lanthanum is quite high. In contrast, US raw material consumption of neodymium is relatively low, whereas embedded demand is comparatively high. This reflects the lack of industrial capacity to process REE concentrates into magnet material combined with the US's high imports of products that contain rare earth permanent magnets.

Journal of Industrial Ecology↗

USGS2022

Streamlined approach for assessing embedded consumption of lithium and cobalt in the United States

In today's complex global supply chains, time and data intensive analyses are required to understand global flows of mineral commodities from mine to consumer, particularly for mineral commodities in products (electronics, automobiles, etc.) that contain multiple parts with many mineral commodities. National and regional analyses require additional time and data to incorporate international trade flows. However, data limitations and time constraints often prohibit global and national material flow analyses for minor metals. Here we present a methodological approach to circumvent these constraints by utilizing readily available industry-level global data from the United Nations Statistics Division and national industrial data to estimate total requirements for a mineral commodity. We apply this approach to lithium and cobalt use in the United States for the year 2018 and distinguish between apparent raw material consumption versus inferred embedded consumption of lithium and cobalt materials in all forms. The results show that more than half of the United States’ total requirements for both lithium and cobalt is in parts and products that were manufactured outside the United States. In large part, this is due to limited US manufacturing capability for lithium-ion battery materials and cells and the United States’ high import reliance for electronics that use those batteries.

Journal of Industrial Ecology↗

USGS2022

A model to assess industry vulnerability to disruptions in mineral commodity supplies

Mineral commodity supply disruptions have the potential to ripple through and impact the economy in many ways. Industrial vulnerability is a crucial component of mineral commodity criticality tools as it provides guidance on the economic importance of these commodities to regional criticality indices. Using an economic model that links mineral commodity end-use data to input-output tables and a linear optimization routine, reductions in economic output of individual industries and of the overall economy may be calculated. Such a model can also help to identify industries, be they direct or indirect consumers of the mineral commodities in question, that are most vulnerable to specific mineral commodity supply disruptions at different disruption magnitudes. In this assessment, 56 commodities’ end-use data for the year 2012 were paired with the United States’ detail-level Benchmark Input-Output accounts to build an industrial vulnerability model. The model does not evaluate the likelihood of specific supply disruptions but can be used to assess potential industry impacts for a range of scenarios. The model findings indicate that when the supplies of mineral commodities such as mica, lithium, and fluorspar were disrupted, large overall economic decline was paired with a large decline in many industries. On the other hand, gold, lead, and rhenium disruptions resulted in low declines and few disrupted industries.

Resources Policy↗

USGS2022

Examining industry vulnerability: A focus on mineral commodities used in the automotive and electronics industries

Automotive manufacturing is material-intensive and dependent on a broad range of mineral commodities. Moreover, the automotive manufacturing industries are reliant on complex and sometimes opaque multi-tiered global supply chains. Among the many industries on which automotive supply chains depend are the electronics and semiconductor industries , which are themselves material-intensive and reliant on opaque global supply chains. A linear programming model built on mineral end-use data and input-output tables provides a tool for investigating inter-industry relationships between the two sets of industry sectors and industrial vulnerability to mineral commodity supply disruptions. Supply disruptions in aluminum, magnesium metal, and zinc—metals used in the body-in-white, wheels and other parts—have significant potential to disrupt the automotive industries. On the other hand, supply disruptions in gallium, tellurium, and indium for example—semiconductor elements used in power electronics, screen coatings and other parts—have significant potential to impact the electronics and computer industries. More interestingly, case studies of the automotive and electronics industries show how supply disruptions in mineral commodities that are generally considered semiconductor materials, such as gallium, can significantly impact the automotive sector.

Resources Policy↗

USGS2020

Investigation of U.S. Foreign Reliance on Critical Minerals—U.S. Geological Survey technical input document in response to Executive Order No. 13953 Signed September 30, 2020

Over the past few decades (1990–2019), the United States has become reliant on foreign sources to meet domestic demand for a large and growing number of mineral commodities. In combination with recent trends towards progressively concentrated supply of mineral commodities from a limited number of countries, this heightened import reliance may increase the risk to the United States economy and national security. Several factors obscure the true net import reliance of mineral commodities essential to the United States, including indirect trade reliance, embedded trade reliance, and foreign ownership. This report provides a detailed overview of contributions to and trends of these mineral commodity supply risks and provides an outline of the salient factors pertaining to each mineral commodity’s supply chain. It also describes some additional considerations and provides a general framework for evaluating different strategies aimed at reducing net import reliance and supply risk.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2020

Evaluating the mineral commodity supply risk of the U.S. manufacturing sector

Trade tensions, resource nationalism, and various other factors are increasing concerns regarding the supply reliability of nonfuel mineral commodities. This is especially the case for commodities required for new and emerging technologies ranging from electric vehicles to wind turbines. In this analysis, we utilize a conventional risk-modeling framework to develop and apply a new methodology for assessing the supply risk to the U.S. manufacturing sector. Specifically, supply risk is defined as the confluence of three factors: the likelihood of a foreign supply disruption, the dependency of U.S. manufacturers on foreign supplies, and the ability of U.S. manufacturers to withstand a supply disruption. The methodology is applied to 52 commodities for the decade spanning 2007-2016. The results indicate that a subset of 23 commodities, including cobalt, niobium, rare earth elements, and tungsten, pose the greatest supply risk. Importantly, this supply risk is dynamic, shifting with changes in global market conditions.

Science Advances↗