Geology topics

Edward H. Moran

Publications and source records attributed to Edward H. Moran.

13 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2017

A fully-stochasticized, age-structured population model for population viability analysis of fish: Lower Missouri River endangered pallid sturgeon example

We develop a fully-stochasticized, age-structured population model suitable for population viability analysis (PVA) of fish and demonstrate its use with the endangered pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ) of the Lower Missouri River as an example. The model incorporates three levels of variance: parameter variance (uncertainty about the value of a parameter itself) applied at the iteration level, temporal variance (uncertainty caused by random environmental fluctuations over time) applied at the time-step level, and implicit individual variance (uncertainty caused by differences between individuals) applied within the time-step level. We found that population dynamics were most sensitive to survival rates, particularly age-2+ survival, and to fecundity-at-length. The inclusion of variance (unpartitioned or partitioned), stocking, or both generally decreased the influence of individual parameters on population growth rate. The partitioning of variance into parameter and temporal components had a strong influence on the importance of individual parameters, uncertainty of model predictions, and quasiextinction risk (i.e., pallid sturgeon population size falling below 50 age-1+ individuals). Our findings show that appropriately applying variance in PVA is important when evaluating the relative importance of parameters, and reinforce the need for better and more precise estimates of crucial life-history parameters for pallid sturgeon.

Lower Missouri River↗

USGS2016

A stochastic bioenergetics model based approach to translating large river flow and temperature in to fish population responses: The pallid sturgeon example

In managing fish populations, especially at-risk species, realistic mathematical models are needed to help predict population response to potential management actions in the context of environmental conditions and changing climate while effectively incorporating the stochastic nature of real world conditions. We provide a key component of such a model for the endangered pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ) in the form of an individual-based bioenergetics model influenced not only by temperature but also by flow. This component is based on modification of a known individual-based bioenergetics model through incorporation of: the observed ontogenetic shift in pallid sturgeon diet from marcroinvertebrates to fish; the energetic costs of swimming under flowing-water conditions; and stochasticity. We provide an assessment of how differences in environmental conditions could potentially alter pallid sturgeon growth estimates, using observed temperature and velocity from channelized portions of the Lower Missouri River mainstem. We do this using separate relationships between the proportion of maximum consumption and fork length and swimming cost standard error estimates for fish captured above and below the Kansas River in the Lower Missouri River. Critical to our matching observed growth in the field with predicted growth based on observed environmental conditions was a two-step shift in diet from macroinvertebrates to fish.

Missouri River↗

USGS2016

Visual Basic, Excel-based fish population modeling tool - The pallid sturgeon example

The model presented in this report is a spreadsheet-based model using Visual Basic for Applications within Microsoft Excel ( http://dx.doi.org/10.5066/F7057D0Z ) prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. It uses the same model structure and, initially, parameters as used by Wildhaber and others (2015) for pallid sturgeon. The difference between the model structure used for this report and that used by Wildhaber and others (2015) is that variance is not partitioned. For the model of this report, all variance is applied at the iteration and time-step levels of the model. Wildhaber and others (2015) partition variance into parameter variance (uncertainty about the value of a parameter itself) applied at the iteration level and temporal variance (uncertainty caused by random environmental fluctuations with time) applied at the time-step level. They included implicit individual variance (uncertainty caused by differences between individuals) within the time-step level. The interface developed for the model of this report is designed to allow the user the flexibility to change population model structure and parameter values and uncertainty separately for every component of the model. This flexibility makes the modeling tool potentially applicable to any fish species; however, the flexibility inherent in this modeling tool makes it possible for the user to obtain spurious outputs. The value and reliability of the model outputs are only as good as the model inputs. Using this modeling tool with improper or inaccurate parameter values, or for species for which the structure of the model is inappropriate, could lead to untenable management decisions. By facilitating fish population modeling, this modeling tool allows the user to evaluate a range of management options and implications. The goal of this modeling tool is to be a user-friendly modeling tool for developing fish population models useful to natural resource managers to inform their decision-making processes; however, as with all population models, caution is needed, and a full understanding of the limitations of a model and the veracity of user-supplied parameters should always be considered when using such model output in the management of any species.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2015

Hierarchical stochastic modeling of large river ecosystems and fish growth across spatio-temporal scales and climate models: the Missouri River endangered pallid sturgeon example

We present a hierarchical series of spatially decreasing and temporally increasing models to evaluate the uncertainty in the atmosphere – ocean global climate model (AOGCM) and the regional climate model (RCM) relative to the uncertainty in the somatic growth of the endangered pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus). For effects on fish populations of riverine ecosystems, cli- mate output simulated by coarse-resolution AOGCMs and RCMs must be downscaled to basins to river hydrology to population response. One needs to transfer the information from these climate simulations down to the individual scale in a way that minimizes extrapolation and can account for spatio-temporal variability in the intervening stages. The goal is a framework to determine whether, given uncertainties in the climate models and the biological response, meaningful inference can still be made. The non-linear downscaling of climate information to the river scale requires that one realistically account for spatial and temporal variability across scale. Our down- scaling procedure includes the use of fixed/calibrated hydrological flow and temperature models coupled with a stochastically parameterized sturgeon bioenergetics model. We show that, although there is a large amount of uncertainty associated with both the climate model output and the fish growth process, one can establish significant differences in fish growth distributions between models, and between future and current climates for a given model.

Missouri River basin↗

USGS2012

Modeling responses of large-river fish populations to global climate change through downscaling and incorporation of predictive uncertainty

Climate change operates over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Understanding its effects on ecosystems requires multi-scale models. For understanding effects on fish populations of riverine ecosystems, climate predicted by coarse-resolution Global Climate Models must be downscaled to Regional Climate Models to watersheds to river hydrology to population response. An additional challenge is quantifying sources of uncertainty given the highly nonlinear nature of interactions between climate variables and community level processes. We present a modeling approach for understanding and accomodating uncertainty by applying multi-scale climate models and a hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to Midwest fish population dynamics and by linking models for system components together by formal rules of probability. The proposed hierarchical modeling approach will account for sources of uncertainty in forecasts of community or population response. The goal is to evaluate the potential distributional changes in an ecological system, given distributional changes implied by a series of linked climate and system models under various emissions/use scenarios. This understanding will aid evaluation of management options for coping with global climate change. In our initial analyses, we found that predicted pallid sturgeon population responses were dependent on the climate scenario considered.

Missouri River↗

USGS2008

Bank topography, bathymetry, and current velocity of the lower Elwha River, Clallam County, Washington, May 2006

The removal of two dams from the mainstem of the Elwha River is expected to cause a broad range of changes to the river and nearby coastal ecosystem. The U.S. Geological Survey has documented aspects of the condition of the river to allow analysis of ecological responses to dam removal. This report documents the bank topography, river bathymetry, and current velocity data collected along the lower 0.5 kilometer of the Elwha River, May 15-17, 2006. This information supplements nearshore and beach surveys done in 2006 as part of the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal Habitats in Puget Sound program near the Elwha River delta in the Strait of Juan de Fuca, Washington.

Washington↗

USGS2007

Water Quality in the Tanana River Basin, Alaska, Water Years 2004-06

OVERVIEW This report contains water-quality data collected from 84 sites in Tanana River basin during water years 2004 through 2006 (October 2003 through September 2006) as part of a cooperative study between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation (ADEC) Alaska Monitoring and Assessment Program (AKMAP), supported in part through the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Office of Water, Cooperative Assistance Agreement X7-97078801. A broad range of chemical analyses are presented for 93 sets of samples collected at 59 tributaries to the Tanana River and at 25 locations along the mainstem. These data are to provide a means to assess baseline characteristics and establish indicators that are ecologically important, affordable, and relevant to society.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2006

Ground water in the Anchorage area, Alaska: Meeting the challenges of ground-water sustainability

Ground water is an important component of Anchorage's water supply. During the 1970s and early 80s when ground water extracted from aquifers near Ship Creek was the principal source of supply, area-wide declines in ground-water levels resulted in near record low streamflows in Ship Creek. Since the importation of Eklutna Lake water in the late 1980s, ground-water use has been reduced and ground water has contributed 14-30 percent of the annual supply. As Anchorage grows, given the current constraints on the Eklutna Lake water availability, the increasing demand for water could place an increasing reliance on local ground-water resources. The sustainability of Anchorage's ground-water resources challenges stakeholders to develop a comprehensive water-resources management strategy.

Alaska↗

USGS2006

Preliminary Water-Table Map and Water-Quality Data for Part of the Matanuska-Susitna Valley, Alaska, 2005

The Matanuska-Susitna Valley is in the northeastern part of the Cook Inlet Basin, Alaska, an area experiencing rapid population growth and development proximal to many lakes. Here water commonly flows between lakes and ground water, indicating interrelation between water quantity and quality. Thus concerns exist that poorer quality ground water may degrade local lake ecosystems. This concern has led to water-quality sampling in cooperation with the Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation and the Matanuska-Susitna Borough. A map showing the estimated altitude of the water table illustrates potential ground-water flow directions and areas where ground- and surface-water exchanges and interactions might occur. Water quality measured in selected wells and lakes indicates some differences between ground water and surface water. 'The temporal and spatial scarcity of ground-water-level and water-quality data limits the analysis of flow direction and water quality. Regionally, the water-table map indicates that ground water in the eastern and southern parts of the study area flows southerly. In the northcentral area, ground water flows predominately westerly then southerly. Although ground and surface water in most areas of the Matanuska-Susitna Valley are interconnected, they are chemically different. Analyses of the few water-quality samples collected in the area indicate that dissolved nitrite plus nitrate and orthophosphorus concentrations are higher in ground water than in surface water.'

Open-File Report↗

USGS2005

Water quality and ground-water/surface-water interactions along the John River near Anaktuvuk Pass, Alaska, 2002-2003

The headwaters of the John River are located near the village of Anaktuvuk Pass in the central Brooks Range of interior Alaska . With the recent construction of a water -supply system and a wastewater-treatment plant, most homes in Anaktuvuk Pass now have modern water and wastewater systems. The effluent from the treatment plant discharges into a settling pond near a tributary of the John River . The headwaters of the John River are adjacent to Gates of the Arctic National Park and Preserve, and the John River is a designated Wild River . Due to the concern about possible water - quality effects from the wastewater effluent, the hydrology of the John River near Anaktuvuk Pass was studied from 2002 through 2003 . Three streams form the John River at Anaktuvuk Pass : Contact Creek, Giant Creek, and the John River Tributary. These streams drain areas of 90.3 km (super 2) , 120 km (super 2) , and 4.6 km (super 2) , respectively. Water - quality data collected from these streams from 2002 -03 indicate that the waters are a calcium-bicarbonate type and that Giant Creek adds a sulfate component to the John River. The highest concentrations of bicarbonate, calcium, sodium, sulfate, and nitrate were found at the John River Tributary below the wastewater-treatment lagoon. These concentrations have little effect on the water quality of the John River because the flow of the John River Tributary is only about 2 percent of the John River flow. To better understand the ground-water/surface-water interactions of the upper John River, a numerical groundwater-flow model of the headwater area of the John River was constructed. Processes that occur during spring break-up, such as thawing of the active layer and the frost table and the resulting changes of storage capacity of the aquifer, were difficult to measure and simulate. Application and accuracy of the model is limited by the lack of specific hydrogeologic data both spatially and temporally. However, during the mid-winter and open-water periods, the model provided acceptable results and was coupled with a particle-movement model to simulate the movement and possible extent of conservative particles from the wastewater-treatment-plant lagoon.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2004

Surveying Cross Sections of the Kootenai River Between Libby Dam, Montana, and Kootenay Lake, British Columbia, Canada

The declining population of Kootenai River white sturgeon, which was listed as an Endangered Species in 1994, has prompted a recovery team to assess the feasibility of various habitat enhancement scenarios to reestablish white sturgeon populations. As the first phase in this assessment, the U.S. Geological Survey collected stream channel cross-section and longitudinal data during 2002—03 at about 400 locations along the Kootenai River from Libby Dam near Libby, Montana, to where the river empties into Kootenay Lake near Creston, British Columbia, Canada. Survey control stations with a horizontal and vertical accuracy of less than 0.1 foot were established using a global positioning system (GPS) prior to collection of stream channel cross-section data along the Kootenai River. A total of 245 cross sections were surveyed. Six cross sections upstream from Kootenai Falls were surveyed using a total station where the river was too shallow or dangerous to navigate by vessel. The remaining 239 cross sections were surveyed by interfacing real-time GPS equipment with an echo sounder to obtain bathymetric data and with a laser range- finder to obtain streambank data. These data were merged, straightened, ordered, and reduced in size to be useful. Spacing between these cross sections ranged from about 600 feet in the valley flat near Deep Creek and Shorty Island and near bridges to as much as several miles in other areas. These stream channel cross sections will provide information that can be used to develop hydraulic flow models of the Kootenai River from Libby Dam, Montana, to Queens Bay on Kootenay Lake in British Columbia, Canada.

Montana;Idaho↗

USGS2004

Development and Calibration of Two-Dimensional Hydrodynamic Model of the Tanana River near Tok, Alaska

Bathymetric and hydraulic data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey on the Tanana River in proximity to Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities' bridge number 505 at mile 80.5 of the Alaska Highway. Data were collected from August 7-9, 2002, over an approximate 5,000- foot reach of the river. These data were combined with topographic data provided by Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities to generate a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model. The hydrodynamic model was calibrated with water-surface elevations, flow velocities, and flow directions collected at a discharge of 25,600 cubic feet per second. The calibrated model was then used for a simulation of the 100-year recurrence interval discharge of 51,900 cubic feet per second. The existing bridge piers were removed from the model geometry in a second simulation to model the hydraulic conditions in the channel without the piers' influence. The water-surface elevations, flow velocities, and flow directions from these simulations can be used to evaluate the influence of the piers on flow hydraulics and will assist the Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities in the design of a replacement bridge.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2002

Characteristics of urbanization in five watersheds of Anchorage, Alaska: Geographic Information System data

The report contains environmental and urban geographic information system data for 14 sites in 5 watersheds in Anchorage, Alaska. These sites were examined during summer in 1999 and 2000 to determine effects of urbanization on water quality. The data sets are Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc., shapefiles, coverages, and images. Also included are an elevation grid and a triangulated irregular network. Although the data are intended for users with advanced geographic information system capabilities, simple images of the data also are available. ArcView 3.2 project, an ArcGIS project, and 16 ArcExplorer2 projects are linked to the PDF file based report. Some of these coverages are large files over 10 MB. The largest coverage, impervious cover, is 208 MB.

Open-File Report↗