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E. Roeloffs

Publications and source records attributed to E. Roeloffs.

6 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2010

The earthquake prediction experiment at Parkfield, California

Since 1985, a focused earthquake prediction experiment has been in progress along the San Andreas fault near the town of Parkfield in central California. Parkfield has experienced six moderate earthquakes since 1857 at average intervals of 22 years, the most recent a magnitude 6 event in 1966. The probability of another moderate earthquake soon appears high, but studies assigning it a 95% chance of occurring before 1993 now appear to have been over-simplified. The identification of a Parkfield fault “segment” was initially based on geometric features in the surface trace of the San Andreas fault, but more recent microearthquake studies have demonstrated that those features do not extend to seismogenic depths. On the other hand, geodetic measurements are consistent with the existence of a “locked” patch on the fault beneath Parkfield that has presently accumulated a slip deficit equal to the slip in the 1966 earthquake. A magnitude 4.7 earthquake in October 1992 brought the Parkfield experiment to its highest level of alert, with a 72-hour public warning that there was a 37% chance of a magnitude 6 event. However, this warning proved to be a false alarm. Most data collected at Parkfield indicate that strain is accumulating at a constant rate on this part of the San Andreas fault, but some interesting departures from this behavior have been recorded. Here we outline the scientific arguments bearing on when the next Parkfield earthquake is likely to occur and summarize geophysical observations to date.

California↗
USGS2008

Characterizing an "uncharacteristics" ETS event in northern Cascadia

GPS and borehole strainmeter data allowed the detection and model characterization of a slow slip event in northern Cascadia in November 2006 accompanying a brief episode of seismic tremor. The event is much smaller in area and duration than other well-known ETS events in northern Cascadia but is strikingly similar to typical ETS events at the Nankai subduction zone. The 30-45 km depth range and the 2-3 cm slip magnitude as interpreted for this event appear to be common to most ETS events in these two subduction zones, regardless of their sizes. We infer that the Nankai-type small ETS events must be abundant at Cascadia and that ETS event at the two subduction zones are governed by a similar physical process. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2003

Summary of recent research in Long Valley Caldera, California

Since 1978, volcanic unrest in the form of earthquakes and ground deformation has persisted in the Long Valley caldera and adjacent parts of the Sierra Nevada. The papers in this special volume focus on periods of accelerated seismicity and deformation in 1980, 1983, 1989-1990, and 1997-1998 to delineate relations between geologic, tectonic, and hydrologic processes. The results distinguish between earthquake sequences that result from relaxation of existing stress accumulation through brittle failure and those in which brittle failure is driven by active intrusion. They also indicate that in addition to a relatively shallow (7-10-km) source beneath the resurgent dome, there exists a deeper (???15-km) source beneath the south moat. Analysis of microgravimety and deformation data indicates that the composition of the shallower source may involve a combination of silicic magma and hydrothermal fluid. Pressure and temperature fluctuations in wells have accompanied periods of crustal unrest, and additional pressure and temperature changes accompanying ongoing geothermal power production have resulted in land subsidence. The completion in 1998 of a 3000-m-deep drill hole on the resurgent dome has provided useful information on present and past periods of circulation of water at temperatures of 100-200??C within the crystalline basement rocks that underlie the post-caldera volcanics. The well is now being converted to a permanent geophysical monitoring station. ?? 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗
USGS2003

Inferences on the hydrothermal system beneath the resurgent dome in Long Valley Caldera, east-central California, USA, from recent pumping tests and geochemical sampling

Quaternary volcanic unrest has provided heat for episodic hydrothermal circulation in the Long Valley caldera, including the present-day hydrothermal system, which has been active over the past 40 kyr. The most recent period of crustal unrest in this region of east-central California began around 1980 and has included periods of intense seismicity and ground deformation. Uplift totaling more than 0.7 m has been centered on the caldera's resurgent dome, and is best modeled by a near-vertical ellipsoidal source centered at depths of 6-7 km. Modeling of both deformation and microgravity data now suggests that (1) there are two inflation sources beneath the caldera, a shallower source 7-10 km beneath the resurgent dome and a deeper source ???15 km beneath the caldera's south moat and (2) the shallower source may contain components of magmatic brine and gas. The Long Valley Exploration Well (LVEW), completed in 1998 on the resurgent dome, penetrates to a depth of 3 km directly above this shallower source, but bottoms in a zone of 100??C fluid with zero vertical thermal gradient. Although these results preclude extrapolations of temperatures at depths below 3 km, other information obtained from flow tests and fluid sampling at this well indicates the presence of magmatic volatiles and fault-related permeability within the metamorphic basement rocks underlying the volcanic fill. In this paper, we present recently acquired data from LVEW and compare them with information from other drill holes and thermal springs in Long Valley to delineate the likely flow paths and fluid system properties under the resurgent dome. Additional information from mineralogical assemblages in core obtained from fracture zones in LVEW documents a previous period of more vigorous and energetic fluid circulation beneath the resurgent dome. Although this system apparently died off as a result of mineral deposition and cooling (and/or deepening) of magmatic heat sources, flow testing and tidal analyses of LVEW water level data show that relatively high permeability and strain sensitivity still exist in the steeply dipping principal fracture zone penetrated at a depth of 2.6 km. The hydraulic properties of this zone would allow a pressure change induced at distances of several kilometers below the well to be observable within a matter of days. This indicates that continuous fluid pressure monitoring in the well could provide direct evidence of future intrusions of magma or high-temperature fluids at depths of 5-7 km. ?? 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

California↗
USGS1997

Water level and strain changes preceding and following the August 4, 1985 Kettleman Hills, California, earthquake

Two of the four wells monitored near Parkfield, California, during 1985 showed water level rises beginning three days before the M4 6.1 Kettleman Hills earthquake. In one of these wells, the 3.0 cm rise was nearly unique in five years of water level data. However, in the other well, which showed a 3.8 cm rise, many other changes of comparable size have been observed. Both wells that did not display pre-earthquake rises tap partially confined aquifers that cannot sustain pressure changes due to tectonic strain having periods longer than several days. We evaluate the effect of partial aquifer confinement on the ability of these four wells to display water level changes in response to aquifer strain. Although the vertical hydraulic diffusivities cannot be determined uniquely, we can find a value of diffusivity for each site that is consistent with the site's tidal and barometric responses as well as with the rate of partial recovery of the coseismic water level drops. Furthermore, the diffusivity for one well is high enough to explain why the preseismic rise could not have been detected there. For the fourth well, the diffusivity is high enough to have reduced the size of the preseismic signal as much as 50%, although it should still have been detectable. Imperfect confinement cannot explain the persistent water level changes in the two partially confined aquifers, but it does show that they were not due to volume strain. The pre-earthquake water level rises may have been precursors to the Kettleman Hills earthquake. If so, they probably were not caused by accelerating slip over the part of the fault plane that ruptured in that earthquake because they are of opposite sign to the observed coseismic water level drops.

Pure and Applied Geophysics↗