Geology topics

Douglas W. Cuddy

Publications and source records attributed to Douglas W. Cuddy.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2003

Compensatory mechanisms in Great Lakes sea lamprey populations: implications for alternative control strategies

Compensatory mechanisms are demographic processes that tend to increase population growth rates at lower population density. These processes will tend to reduce the effectiveness of actions that use controls on reproductive success to suppress sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ), an economically important pest in the Great Lakes. Historical evidence for compensatory mechanisms in sea lamprey populations was reviewed, and revealed: (1) strong evidence for shifts in sex ratios as sea lamprey abundance was reduced in the early years of the control program; (2) weak and equivocal evidence for increased growth rates of sea lamprey cohorts re-colonizing streams following a lampricide treatment; and (3) suggestions of other compensatory processes, such as earlier ages at metamorphosis, but with little empirical evidence. Larval size distribution data for cohorts in the first and second years following a lampricide treatment (26 pairs of cohorts in 20 streams) was analyzed and did not indicate a consistent pattern of more rapid growth of the first colonizing cohort (only 11 of 33 cases). To test for compensation between spawning and age-1 in sea lamprey populations, data were analyzed for 49 stream-years for which spawning female abundance was known and age-1 abundance was estimated in the following year. A fit of these data to a Ricker stock-recruitment function showed evidence for compensation, measured as reduced survival to age 1 at higher abundance of spawning females. More obvious, however, was a large amount of density-independent variation in survival, which tends to mask evidence for compensatory survival. The results were applied to a simple model that simulates sea lamprey populations and their control in a hypothetical lake. Control strategies that targeted reproductive success performed far less well than comparable strategies that targeted larval populations, because density-independent recruitment variation leads to occasional strong year classes even when spawner abundance is reduced to low levels through alternative control. It is concluded that further study of recruitment variation in lamprey populations is critical to rationalizing alternative controls that target reproductive success, and that recruitment variation needs to be incorporated into models used to evaluate sea lamprey control options.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

USGS2003

Relative contributions of sampling effort, measuring, and weighing to precision of larval sea lamprey biomass estimates

We developed two weight-length models from 231 populations of larval sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) collected from tributaries of the Great Lakes: Lake Ontario (21), Lake Erie (6), Lake Huron (67), Lake Michigan (76), and Lake Superior (61). Both models were mixed models, which used population as a random effect and additional environmental factors as fixed effects. We resampled weights and lengths 1,000 times from data collected in each of 14 other populations not used to develop the models, obtaining a weight and length distribution from reach resampling. To test model performance, we applied the two weight-length models to the resampled length distributions and calculated the predicted mean weights. We also calculated the observed mean weight for each resampling and for each of the original 14 data sets. When the average of predicted means was compared to means from the original data in each stream, inclusion of environmental factors did not consistently improve the performance of the weight-length model. We estimated the variance associated with measures of abundance and mean weight for each of the 14 selected populations and determined that a conservative estimate of the proportional contribution to variance associated with estimating abundance accounted for 32% to 95% of the variance (mean = 66%). Variability in the biomass estimate appears more affected by variability in estimating abundance than in converting length to weight. Hence, efforts to improve the precision of biomass estimates would be aided most by reducing the variability associated with estimating abundance.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

USGS2003

Techniques and methods for estimating abundance of larval and metamorphosed sea lampreys in Great Lakes tributaries, 1995 to 2001

Before 1995, Great Lakes streams were selected for lampricide treatment based primarily on qualitative measures of the relative abundance of larval sea lampreys, Petromyzon marinus. New integrated pest management approaches required standardized quantitative measures of sea lamprey. This paper evaluates historical larval assessment techniques and data and describes how new standardized methods for estimating abundance of larval and metamorphosed sea lampreys were developed and implemented. These new methods have been used to estimate larval and metamorphosed sea lamprey abundance in about 100 Great Lakes streams annually and to rank them for lampricide treatment since 1995. Implementation of these methods has provided a quantitative means of selecting streams for treatment based on treatment cost and estimated production of metamorphosed sea lampreys, provided managers with a tool to estimate potential recruitment of sea lampreys to the Great Lakes and the ability to measure the potential consequences of not treating streams, resulting in a more justifiable allocation of resources. The empirical data produced can also be used to simulate the impacts of various control scenarios.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

USGS2003

Selecting Great Lakes streams for lampricide treatment based on larval sea lamprey surveys

The Empiric Stream Treatment Ranking (ESTR) system is a data-driven, model-based, decision tool for selecting Great Lakes streams for treatment with lampricide, based on estimates from larval sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) surveys conducted throughout the basin. The 2000 ESTR system was described and applied to larval assessment surveys conducted from 1996 to 1999. A comparative analysis of stream survey and selection data was conducted and improvements to the stream selection process were recommended. Streams were selected for treatment based on treatment cost, predicted treatment effectiveness, and the projected number of juvenile sea lampreys produced. On average, lampricide treatments were applied annually to 49 streams with 1,075 ha of larval habitat, killing 15 million larval and 514,000 juvenile sea lampreys at a total cost of $5.3 million, and marginal and mean costs of $85 and $10 per juvenile killed. The numbers of juvenile sea lampreys killed for given treatment costs showed a pattern of diminishing returns with increasing investment. Of the streams selected for treatment, those with > 14 ha of larval habitat targeted 73% of the juvenile sea lampreys for 60% of the treatment cost. Suggested improvements to the ESTR system were to improve accuracy and precision of model estimates, account for uncertainty in estimates, include all potentially productive streams in the process (not just those surveyed in the current year), consider the value of all larvae killed during treatment (not just those predicted to metamorphose the following year), use lake-specific estimates of damage, and establish formal suppression targets.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

USGS2003

Classification of lentic habitat for sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) larvae using a remote seabed classification device

Lentic populations of larval sea lampreys ( Petromyzon marinus ) are suspected of being a major source of recruitment to parasitic stocks in some areas of the Great Lakes, and methods are needed to estimate habitat and population sizes. A deepwater electroshocker has been used to quantitatively assess larval sea lamprey populations in deepwater areas, however a method has not been developed to efficiently identify the most promising locations to sample in this environment. A remote seabed classification device (RoxAnn™) was used to identify soft substrates in a lentic area where sea lamprey larvae have been found in Batchawana Bay (Ontario) in eastern Lake Superior, and related those substrate types to larval distribution and occurrence. Presence of larvae was significantly related to substrate type, distance from the stream mouth, and slope of the lake bottom. Remote seabed classification would be a useful tool in the Sea Lamprey Control Program to identify the most promising locations to conduct larval surveys in lentic areas.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

USGS2003

Assessing assessment: Can the expected effects of the St. Marys River sea lamprey control strategy be detected?

In 1997 the Great Lakes Fishery Commission approved a 5-year (1998 to 2002) control strategy to reduce sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) production in the St. Marys River, the primary source of parasitic sea lampreys in northern Lake Huron. An assessment plan was developed to measure the success of the control strategy and decide on subsequent control efforts. The expected effects of the St. Marys River control strategy are described, the assessments in place to measure these effects are outlined, and the ability of these assessments to detect the expected effects are quantified. Several expected changes were predicted to be detectable: abundance of parasitic-phase sea lampreys and annual mortality of lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) by 2001, abundance of spawning-phase sea lampreys by 2002, and relative return rates of lake trout and sea lamprey wounding rates on lake trout by 2005. Designing an effective assessment program to quantify the consequences of fishery management actions is a critical, but often overlooked ingredient of sound fisheries management.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

USGS2003

Optimizing larval assessment to support sea lamprey control in the Great Lakes

Elements of the larval sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) assessment program that most strongly influence the chemical treatment program were analyzed, including selection of streams for larval surveys, allocation of sampling effort among stream reaches, allocation of sampling effort among habitat types, estimation of daily growth rates, and estimation of metamorphosis rates, to determine how uncertainty in each element influenced the stream selection program. First, the stream selection model based on current larval assessment sampling protocol significantly underestimated transforming sea lam-prey abundance, transforming sea lampreys killed, and marginal costs per sea lamprey killed, compared to a protocol that included more years of data (especially for large streams). Second, larval density in streams varied significantly with Type-I habitat area, but not with total area or reach length. Third, the ratio of larval density between Type-I and Type-II habitat varied significantly among streams, and that the optimal allocation of sampling effort varied with the proportion of habitat types and variability of larval density within each habitat. Fourth, mean length varied significantly among streams and years. Last, size at metamorphosis varied more among years than within or among regions and that metamorphosis varied significantly among streams within regions. Study results indicate that: (1) the stream selection model should be used to identify streams with potentially high residual populations of larval sea lampreys; (2) larval sampling in Type-II habitat should be initiated in all streams by increasing sampling in Type-II habitat to 50% of the sampling effort in Type-I habitat; and (3) methods should be investigated to reduce uncertainty in estimates of sea lamprey production, with emphasis on those that reduce the uncertainty associated with larval length at the end of the growing season and those used to predict metamorphosis.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

USGS2003

Planning and executing a lampricide treatment of the St. Marys River using georeferenced data

The St. Marys River is believed to be the primary source of sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) in Lake Huron. Planning or evaluating lampricide treatments required knowing where lampricides could effectively be placed and where larvae were located. Accurate maps of larval density were therefore critical to formulating or evaluating management strategies using lampricides. Larval abundance was systematically assessed with a deepwater electrofishing device at 12,000 georeferenced locations during 1993 to 1996. Maps were produced from catches at those locations, providing georeferenced detail previously unavailable. Catches were processed with a geographic information system (GIS), to create a map of larval density. Whole-river treatment scenarios using TFM (3-trifluoromethyl-4-nitrophenol) were evaluated by combining the map with one of lethal conditions predicted by a lampricide-transport model. The map was also used to evaluate spot treatment scenarios with a granular, bottom-release formulation of another lampricide, Bayluscide (2',5-dichloro-4'-nitro-salicylanilide). Potential high-density plots for Bayluscide treatment were selected from the map and estimates of area, cost, and larval population were developed using the GIS. Plots were ranked by the cost per larva killed. Spot treatments were found to be more cost effective than a conventional TFM treatment and Bayluscide was applied to 82 ha in 1998 and 759 ha in 1999. Effectiveness was estimated with stratified-random sampling before and after treatment in 1999 at 35%. Ten percent already had been removed in 1998, for a total reduction of 45% percent. This marked a change in how research and planning were combined in sea lamprey management to minimize treatment costs and evaluate success.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗