Geology topics

Douglas J. Shinneman

Publications and source records attributed to Douglas J. Shinneman.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

USGS2019

Climate and disturbance influence self-sustaining stand dynamics of aspen (Populus tremuloides) near its range margin

Species that are primarily seral may form stable (self-sustaining) communities under certain disturbance regimes or environmental conditions, yet such populations may also be particularly vulnerable to ecological change. Aspen (Populus spp.) are generally considered seral throughout the northern hemisphere, including P. tremuloides, the most widely distributed tree species in North America. Recent declines in aspen populations have occurred, especially along drought-sensitive margins of its range and where fire exclusion and herbivory have promoted community transition. However, aspen also forms stable stands, and examination of the mechanisms that influence persistence can offer conservation insights, especially where populations are vulnerable to changing climate or altered disturbance dynamics. We sampled tree age and stand characteristics of isolated aspen forests in the arid Great Basin (USA) to determine if: (1) aspen communities are more fire-dependent and seral or fire-independent and stable; (2) ungulate browsing inhibits aspen stability; and (3) temporal patterns of vegetative reproduction (i.e., ramet establishment or “suckering”) are correlated with climate. Aspen size and age class densities strongly fit negative exponential distributions, whether grouped geographically or by functional type, suggesting landscape-scale persistence. Continuous age distributions and high proportions of recruitment-sized to overstory trees suggest stability at stand-scales, with exceptions including stands with higher browsing pressure. Few stands had evidence of fire, and relationships between dead tree size and variability in live tree size suggest a lack of fire-dependency. Several five-year averaged climate variables and one sea surface temperature index were correlated with aspen ramet establishment densities over time, with strongest relationships occurring ~5 years prior to establishment year, often followed by inverse relationships ~1 year after. Indeed, aspen establishment density for a recent 41-year period was reliably reconstructed using antecedent climate conditions derived from a single drought index. Temporally synchronized aspen ramet establishment across the study region may be due to climate-driven storage of nonstructural carbohydrate reserves in clonal root systems later used for regeneration. Complex regeneration dynamics of these self-sustaining aspen stands, especially sensitivity to climate variability, suggest they may serve as harbingers of ecological change in the arid Great Basin and in other aspen populations near their range margin.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2019

Integrating anthropogenic factors into regional-scale species distribution models — A novel application in the imperiled sagebrush biome

Species distribution models (SDM) that rely on regional-scale environmental variables will play a key role in forecasting species occurrence in the face of climate change. However, in the Anthropocene, a number of local-scale anthropogenic variables, including wildfire history, land-use change, invasive species, and ecological restoration practices can override regional-scale variables to drive patterns of species distribution. Incorporating these human-induced factors into SDMs remains a major research challenge, in part because spatial variability in these factors occurs at fine scales, rendering prediction over regional extents problematic. Here, we used big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata Nutt.) as a model species to explore whether including human-induced factors improves the fit of the SDM. We applied a Bayesian hurdle spatial approach using 21,753 data points of field-sampled vegetation obtained from the LANDFIRE program to model sagebrush occurrence and cover by incorporating fire history metrics and restoration treatments from 1980 to 2015 throughout the Great Basin of North America.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2019

The ecological uncertainty of wildfire fuel breaks: Examples from the sagebrush steppe

Fuel breaks are increasingly being implemented at broad scales (100s to 10,000s of square kilometers) in fire‐prone landscapes globally, yet there is little scientific information available regarding their ecological effects (eg habitat fragmentation). Fuel breaks are designed to reduce flammable vegetation (ie fuels), increase the safety and effectiveness of fire‐suppression operations, and ultimately decrease the extent of wildfire spread. In sagebrush ( Artemisia spp) ecosystems of the western US, installation of extensive linear fuel breaks is also intended to protect habitat, especially for the greater sage‐grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ), a species that is sensitive to habitat fragmentation. We examine this apparent contradiction in the Great Basin region, where invasive annual grasses have increased wildfire activity and threaten sagebrush ecosystems. Given uncertain outcomes, we examine how implementation of fuel breaks might (1) directly alter ecosystems, (2) create edges and edge effects, (3) serve as vectors for wildlife movement and plant invasions, (4) fragment otherwise contiguous sagebrush landscapes, and (5) benefit from scientific investigation intended to disentangle their ecological costs and benefits.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗

USGS2019

Modeling long-term effects of fuel treatments on fuel loads and fire regimes in the Great Basin

The principal motivation for this study is that sagebrush-steppe ecosystems are undergoing significant state changes, and land managers are challenged with optimizing their resources for both short- and long-term use. Yet, limited knowledge is available regarding how the sagebrush-steppe will respond to environmental changes related to precipitation and temperature regimes, and disturbance such as fire. Furthermore, there is a lack of understanding on how fuels reduction and other fuel management activities will impact these ecosystems over the long-term. We addressed these challenges by adapting and testing a vegetation dynamics model, the Ecosystem Demography v2.2 model (EDv2.2), for the sagebrush-steppe. Vegetation dynamics models can provide estimations of ecosystem productivity in their natural and disturbance states, and thus serve as a tool to understand and predict potential changes in various processes and properties of vegetation communities. Yet, there is no vegetation dynamics model that is well-developed for the sagebrush-steppe, and thus significant effort is needed to test EDv2.2 for its application. As part of our efforts to develop the EDv2.2 model into a useful tool for the sagebrush-steppe, we developed a sagebrush plant functional type (PFT) as part of this study, and then performed sensitivity analyses, model calibration, and finally model evaluation. Furthermore, we developed several model scenarios under natural (undisturbed) and disturbed (fire) environments. We compared our model outputs with ground-based data (field and eddy covariance) and remote sensing observations. The results of our project include a sagebrush PFT that can be used in both future EDv2.2 modeling efforts and other vegetation dynamic models. Our results from the model sensitivity analysis indicate that specific leaf area (SLA), stomatal slope (STO_S), cuticular conductance (CUT_C), and carboxylase rate constant (VM0) are sensitive parameters to vegetation productivity in the model (based on gross primary production, GPP), and future modeling efforts will benefit from both lab and field studies of these parameters and sensitivity analyses. Through calibration, we found that the EDv2.2 model estimates of GPP were modeled well at our lowest elevation field site in Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed (RCEW), which is dominated by Wyoming big sagebrush. On the contrary, we found poorer results at higher elevation site shrub sites. These sites are characterized by either low sagebrush or mountain big sagebrush, and have more forb cover than the low elevation site. In this project we also implemented the fire model in EDv2.2 to explore how shrub and C3 grasses respond to fire by analyzing post-fire GPP. We ran both point and regional model runs with fire introduced. In most fire scenarios, fire substantially reduced shrub GPP and it took several decades for shrub GPP to return to pre-fire conditions. Grass GPP responded more quickly in post-fire conditions. While these processes are representative of what other studies have found, significant efforts to improve the fire processes in EDv2.2 are needed. For example, nuances associated with the fire subroutine in the model (running periodic fire events versus instantaneous fires and fire intensity) will need to be expanded. Another significant contribution to our knowledge gap is that additional PFTs to represent the sagebrush-steppe (e.g. annual grasses such cheatgrass) are needed for EDv2.2. Regardless, this project made significant advances in PFT development and model testing. Moreover, the EDv2.2 provides a useful framework to conceptualize vegetation dynamics, project future conditions, and consider fire as a disturbance. With additional parameterizations, PFTs, and fire routines, EDv2.2 will evolve as a tool for which to better understand future ecosystem dynamics of the sagebrush-steppe.

Idaho↗

USGS2018

Fuels guide and database for intact and invaded big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) ecological sites—User manual

The Fuels Guide and Database (FGD) is intended to provide fuel loading and vegetation information for big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ) ecological sites in the Morley Nelson Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area (hereinafter the NCA) in southern Idaho. Sagebrush ecosystems in the NCA and throughout much of the Great Basin are highly influenced by non-native plants that alter successional trajectories and promote frequent wildfires, especially due to fine-fuel loadings that are highly variable over time and space. These dynamic fuel conditions can increase uncertainty when attempting to project fire risk and fire behavior. The FGD was developed to help quantify and assess these dynamic fuel loadings, and it provides access to fuels data across a range of conditions, from relatively intact sagebrush-bunchgrass communities to degraded communities dominated by nonnative annual grasses and forbs. The FGD can be queried for a variety of environmental conditions, and it provides tabular data, reports, and photographic records of fuels based on user queries. This report describes the FGD, including overall data content and data-collection methods, as well as instructions for installing and using the database.

Data Series↗

USGS2018

A conservation paradox in the Great Basin—Altering sagebrush landscapes with fuel breaks to reduce habitat loss from wildfire

Interactions between fire and nonnative, annual plant species (that is, “the grass/fire cycle”) represent one of the greatest threats to sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystems and associated wildlife, including the greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ). In 2015, U.S. Department of the Interior called for a “science-based strategy to reduce the threat of large-scale rangeland fire to habitat for the greater sage-grouse and the sagebrush-steppe ecosystem.” An associated guidance document, the “Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy Actionable Science Plan,” identified fuel breaks as high priority areas for scientific research. Fuel breaks are intended to reduce fire size and frequency, and potentially they can compartmentalize wildfire spatial distribution in a landscape. Fuel breaks are designed to reduce flame length, fireline intensity, and rates of fire spread in order to enhance firefighter access, improve response times, and provide safe and strategic anchor points for wildland fire-fighting activities. To accomplish these objectives, fuel breaks disrupt fuel continuity, reduce fuel accumulation, and (or) increase plants with high moisture content through the removal or modification of vegetation in strategically placed strips or blocks of land. Fuel breaks are being newly constructed, enhanced, or proposed across large areas of the Great Basin to reduce wildfire risk and to protect remaining sagebrush ecosystems (including greater sage-grouse habitat). These projects are likely to result in thousands of linear miles of fuel breaks that will have direct ecological effects across hundreds of thousands of acres through habitat loss and conversion. These projects may also affect millions of acres indirectly because of edge effects and habitat fragmentation created by networks of fuel breaks. Hence, land managers are often faced with a potentially paradoxical situation: the need to substantially alter sagebrush habitats with fuel breaks to ultimately reduce a greater threat of their destruction from wildfire. However, there is relatively little published science that directly addresses the ability of fuel breaks to influence fire behavior in dryland landscapes or that addresses the potential ecological effects of the construction and maintenance of fuel breaks on sagebrush ecosystems and associated wildlife species. This report is intended to provide an initial assessment of both the potential effectiveness of fuel breaks and their ecological costs and benefits. To provide this assessment, we examined prior studies on fuel breaks and other scientific evidence to address three crucial questions: (1) How effective are fuel breaks in reducing or slowing the spread of wildfire in arid and semi-arid shrubland ecosystems? (2) How do fuel breaks affect sagebrush plant communities? (3) What are the effects of fuel breaks on the greater sage-grouse, other sagebrush obligates, and sagebrush-associated wildlife species? We also provide an overview of recent federal policies and management directives aimed at protecting remaining sagebrush and greater sage-grouse habitat; describe the fuel conditions, fire behavior, and fire trends in the Great Basin; and suggest how scientific inquiry and management actions can improve our understanding of fuel breaks and their effects in sagebrush landscapes.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2018

Intraspecific niche models for ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) suggest potential variability in population-level response to climate change

Unique responses to climate change can occur across intraspecific levels, resulting in individualistic adaptation or movement patterns among populations within a given species. Thus, the need to model potential responses among genetically distinct populations within a species is increasingly recognized. However, predictive models of future distributions are regularly fit at the species level, often because intraspecific variation is unknown or is identified only within limited sample locations. In this study, we considered the role of intraspecific variation to shape the geographic distribution of ponderosa pine ( Pinus ponderosa ), an ecologically and economically important tree species in North America. Morphological and genetic variation across the distribution of ponderosa pine suggest the need to model intraspecific populations: the two varieties (var. ponderosa and var. scopulorum ) and several haplotype groups within each variety have been shown to occupy unique climatic niches, suggesting populations have distinct evolutionary lineages adapted to different environmental conditions. We utilized a recently-available, geographically-widespread dataset of intraspecific variation (haplotypes) for ponderosa pine and a recently-devised lineage distance modeling approach to derive additional, likely intraspecific occurrence locations. We confirmed the relative uniqueness of each haplotype-climate relationship using a niche-overlap analysis, and developed ecological niche models (ENMs) to project the distribution for two varieties and eight haplotypes under future climate forecasts. Future projections of haplotype niche distributions generally revealed greater potential range loss than predicted for the varieties. This difference may reflect intraspecific responses of distinct evolutionary lineages. However, directional trends are generally consistent across intraspecific levels, and include a loss of distributional area and an upward shift in elevation. Our results demonstrate the utility in modeling intraspecific response to changing climate and they inform management and conservation strategies, by identifying haplotypes and geographic areas that may be most at risk, or most secure, under projected climate change.

Systematic Biology↗

USGS2018

Greater sage-grouse science (2015–17)—Synthesis and potential management implications

Executive Summary The greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter called “sage-grouse”), a species that requires sagebrush (Artemisia spp.), has experienced range-wide declines in its distribution and abundance. These declines have prompted substantial research and management investments to improve the understanding of sage-grouse and its habitats and reverse declines in distribution and population numbers. Over the past two decades, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) has responded to eight petitions to list the sage-grouse under the Endangered Species Act of 1973, with the completion of the most recent listing determination in September 2015. At that time, the USFWS determined that the sage-grouse did not warrant a listing, primarily because of the large scale science-based conservation and planning efforts completed or started by Federal, State, local agencies, private landowners, and other entities across the range. The planning efforts culminated in the development of the 2015 Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and U.S. Forest Service Land Use Plan Amendments, which provided regulatory certainty and commitment from Federal land-management agencies to limit, mitigate, and track anthropogenic disturbance and implement other sage-grouse conservation measures. After these policy decisions, the scientific community has continued to refine and expand the knowledge available to inform implementation of management actions, increase the efficiency and effectiveness of those actions, and continue developing an overall understanding of sage-grouse populations, habitat requirements, and their response to human activity and other habitat changes. The development of science has been driven by multiple prioritization documents including the “Greater Sage-Grouse National Research Strategy” (Hanser and Manier, 2013) and, most recently, the “Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy Actionable Science Plan” (Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy Actionable Science Plan Team, 2016). In October 2017, after a review of the 2015 Federal plans relative to State sage-grouse plans, in accordance with Secretarial Order 3353, the BLM issued a notice of intent to consider whether to amend some, all, or none of the 2015 land use plans. At that time, the BLM requested the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to inform this effort through the development of an annotated bibliography of sage-grouse science published since January 2015 and a report that synthesized and outlined the potential management implications of this new science. Development of the annotated bibliography resulted in the identification and summarization of 169 peer-reviewed scientific publications and reports. The USGS then convened an interagency team (hereafter referred to as the “team”) to develop this report that focuses on the primary topics of importance to the ongoing management of sage-grouse and their habitats. The team developed this report in a three-step process. First, the team identified six primary topic areas for discussion based on the members’ collective knowledge regarding sage-grouse, their habitats, and threats to either or both. Second, the team reviewed all the material in the “Annotated Bibliography of Scientific Research on Greater Sage-Grouse Published since January 2015” to identify the science that addressed the topics. Third, team members discussed the science related to each topic, evaluated the consistency of the science with existing knowledge before 2015, and summarized the potential management implications of this science. The six primary topics identified by the team were: Multiscale habitat suitability and mapping tools Discrete anthropogenic activities Diffuse activities Fire and invasive species Restoration effectiveness Population estimation and genetics

Open-File Report↗

USGS2018

Estimating vegetation biomass and cover across large plots in shrub and grass dominated drylands using terrestrial lidar and machine learning

Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) has been shown to enable an efficient, precise, and non-destructive inventory of vegetation structure at ranges up to hundreds of meters. We developed a method that leverages TLS collections with machine learning techniques to model and map canopy cover and biomass of several classes of short-stature vegetation across large plots. We collected high-definition TLS scans of 26 1-ha plots in desert grasslands and big sagebrush shrublands in southwest Idaho, USA. We used the Random Forests machine learning algorithm to develop decision tree models predicting the biomass and canopy cover of several vegetation classes from statistical descriptors of the aboveground heights of TLS points. Manual measurements of vegetation characteristics collected within each plot served as training and validation data. Models based on five or fewer TLS descriptors of vegetation heights were developed to predict the canopy cover fraction of shrubs (R 2 = 0.77, RMSE = 7%), annual grasses (R 2 = 0.70, RMSE = 21%), perennial grasses (R 2 = 0.36, RMSE = 12%), forbs (R 2 = 0.52, RMSE = 6%), bare earth or litter (R 2 = 0.49, RMSE = 19%), and the biomass of shrubs (R 2 = 0.71, RMSE = 175 g) and herbaceous vegetation (R 2 = 0.61, RMSE = 99 g) (all values reported are out-of-bag). Our models explained much of the variability between predictions and manual measurements, and yet we expect that future applications could produce even better results by reducing some of the methodological sources of error that we encountered. Our work demonstrates how TLS can be used efficiently to extend manual measurement of vegetation characteristics from small to large plots in grasslands and shrublands, with potential application to other similarly structured ecosystems. Our method shows that vegetation structural characteristics can be modeled without classifying and delineating individual plants, a challenging and time-consuming step common in previous methods applying TLS to vegetation inventory. Improving application of TLS to studies of shrub-steppe ecosystems will serve immediate management needs by enhancing vegetation inventories, environmental modeling studies, and the ability to train broader datasets collected from air and space.

Idaho↗

USGS2017

Methodological considerations of terrestrial laser scanning for vegetation monitoring in the sagebrush steppe

Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) provides fast collection of high-definition structural information, making it a valuable field instrument to many monitoring applications. A weakness of TLS collections, especially in vegetation, is the occurrence of unsampled regions in point clouds where the sensor’s line-of-sight is blocked by intervening material. This problem, referred to as occlusion, may be mitigated by scanning target areas from several positions, increasing the chance that any given area will fall within the scanner’s line-of-sight from at least one position. Because TLS collections are often employed in remote regions where the scope of sampling is limited by logistical factors such as time and battery power, it is important to design field protocols which maximize efficiency and support increased quantity and quality of the data collected. This study informs researchers and practitioners seeking to optimize TLS sampling methods for vegetation monitoring in dryland ecosystems through three analyses. First, we quantify the 2D extent of occluded regions based on the range from single scan positions. Second, we measure the efficacy of additional scan positions on the reduction of 2D occluded regions (area) using progressive configurations of scan positions in 1 ha plots. Third, we test the reproducibility of 3D sampling yielded by a 5-scan/ha sampling methodology using redundant sets of scans. Analyses were performed using measurements at analysis scales of 5 to 50 cm across the 1-ha plots, and we considered plots in grass and shrub-dominated communities separately. In grass-dominated plots, a center-scan configuration and 5 cm pixel size sampled at least 90% of the area up to 18 m away from the scanner. In shrub-dominated plots, sampling at least 90% of the area was only achieved within a distance of 12 m. We found that 3 and 5 scans/ha are needed to sample at least ~ 70% of the total area (1 ha) in the grass and shrub-dominated plots, respectively, using 5 cm pixels to measure sampling presence-absence. The reproducibility of 3D sampling provided by a 5 position scan layout across 1-ha plots was 50% (shrub) and 70% (grass) using a 5-cm voxel size, whereas at the 50-cm voxel scale, reproducibility of sampling was nearly 100% for all plot types. Future studies applying TLS in similar dryland environments for vegetation monitoring may use our results as a guide to efficiently achieve sampling coverage and reproducibility in datasets.

Idaho↗

USGS2017

Potential influence of wildfire in modulating climate-induced forest redistribution in a central Rocky Mountain landscape

Introduction Climate change is expected to impose significant tension on the geographic distribution of tree species. Yet, tree species range shifts may be delayed by their long life spans, capacity to withstand long periods of physiological stress, and dispersal limitations. Wildfire could theoretically break this biological inertia by killing forest canopies and facilitating species redistribution under changing climate. We investigated the capacity of wildfire to modulate climate-induced tree redistribution across a montane landscape in the central Rocky Mountains under three climate scenarios (contemporary and two warmer future climates) and three wildfire scenarios (representing historical, suppressed, and future fire regimes). Methods Distributions of four common tree species were projected over 90 years by pairing a climate niche model with a forest landscape simulation model that simulates species dispersal, establishment, and mortality under alternative disturbance regimes and climate scenarios. Results Three species (Douglas-fir, lodgepole pine, subalpine fir) declined in abundance over time, due to climate-driven contraction in area suitable for establishment, while one species (ponderosa pine) was unable to exploit climate-driven expansion of area suitable for establishment. Increased fire frequency accelerated declines in area occupied by Douglas-fir, lodgepole pine, and subalpine fir, and it maintained local abundance but not range expansion of ponderosa pine. Conclusions Wildfire may play a larger role in eliminating these conifer species along trailing edges of their distributions than facilitating establishment along leading edges, in part due to dispersal limitations and interspecific competition, and future populations may increasingly depend on persistence in locations unfavorable for their establishment.

Idaho↗

USGS2016

Exploring climate niches of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) haplotypes in the western United States: Implications for evolutionary history and conservation

Ponderosa pine ( Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) occupies montane environments throughout western North America, where it is both an ecologically and economically important tree species. A recent study using mitochondrial DNA analysis demonstrated substantial genetic variation among ponderosa pine populations in the western U.S., identifying 10 haplotypes with unique evolutionary lineages that generally correspond spatially with distributions of the Pacific ( P . p . var. ponderosa ) and Rocky Mountain ( P . p . var. scopulorum ) varieties. To elucidate the role of climate in shaping the phylogeographic history of ponderosa pine, we used nonparametric multiplicative regression to develop predictive climate niche models for two varieties and 10 haplotypes and to hindcast potential distribution of the varieties during the last glacial maximum (LGM), ~22,000 yr BP. Our climate niche models performed well for the varieties, but haplotype models were constrained in some cases by small datasets and unmeasured microclimate influences. The models suggest strong relationships between genetic lineages and climate. Particularly evident was the role of seasonal precipitation balance in most models, with winter- and summer-dominated precipitation regimes strongly associated with P . p . vars. ponderosa and scopulorum , respectively. Indeed, where present-day climate niches overlap between the varieties, introgression of two haplotypes also occurs along a steep clinal divide in western Montana. Reconstructed climate niches for the LGM suggest potentially suitable climate existed for the Pacific variety in the California Floristic province, the Great Basin, and Arizona highlands, while suitable climate for the Rocky Mountain variety may have existed across the southwestern interior highlands. These findings underscore potentially unique phylogeographic origins of modern ponderosa pine evolutionary lineages, including potential adaptations to Pleistocene climates associated with discrete temporary glacial refugia. Our predictive climate niche models may inform strategies for further genetic research (e.g., sampling design) and conservation that promotes haplotype compatibility with projected changes in future climate.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2016

Landsat 8 and ICESat-2: Performance and potential synergies for quantifying dryland ecosystem vegetation cover and biomass

The Landsat 8 mission provides new opportunities for quantifying the distribution of above-ground carbon at moderate spatial resolution across the globe, and in particular drylands. Furthermore, coupled with structural information from space-based and airborne laser altimetry, Landsat 8 provides powerful capabilities for large-area, long-term studies that quantify temporal and spatial changes in above-ground biomass and cover. With the planned launch of ICESat-2 in 2017 and thus the potential to couple Landsat 8 and ICESat-2 data, we have unprecedented opportunities to address key challenges in drylands, including quantifying fuel loads, habitat quality, biodiversity, carbon cycling, and desertification. In this study, we explore the strengths of Landsat 8's Operational Land Imager (OLI) in estimating vegetation structure in a dryland ecosystem, and compare these results to Landsat 5's Thematic Mapper (TM). We also demonstrate the potential of OLI when coupled with light detection and ranging (lidar) in estimating vegetation cover and biomass in a dryland ecosystem. The OLI and TM predictions were similarly positive, indicating data from these sensors may be used in tandem for long-term time-series analysis. Results indicate shrub and herbaceous cover are well predicted with multi-temporal OLI data, and a combination of OLI and lidar derivatives improves most of these estimates and reduces uncertainty. For example, significant improvements were made for shrub cover (R 2 = 0.64 and 0.78 using OLI only and both OLI and lidar data, respectively). Importantly, a time series of OLI, with some improvement from lidar, provides strong estimates of herbaceous cover (68% of the variance is explained with OLI alone). In contrast, OLI data explain roughly 59% of the variance in total shrub biomass, however approximately 71% of the variance is explained when combined with lidar derivatives. To estimate the potential synergies of OLI and ICESat-2 we used simulated ICESat-2 photon data to predict vegetation structure. In a shrubland environment with a vegetation mean height of 1 m and mean vegetation cover of 33%, vegetation photons are able to explain nearly 50% of the variance in vegetation height. These results, and those from a comparison site, suggest that a lower detection threshold of ICESat-2 may be in the range of 30% canopy cover and roughly 1 m height in comparable dryland environments and these detection thresholds could be used to combine future ICESat-2 photon data with OLI spectral data for improved vegetation structure. Overall, the synergistic use of Landsat 8 and ICESat-2 may improve estimates of above-ground biomass and carbon storage in drylands that meet these minimum thresholds, increasing our ability to monitor drylands for fuel loading and the potential to sequester carbon.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗

USGS2016

Identifying key climate and environmental factors affecting rates of post-fire big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ) recovery in the northern Columbia Basin, USA

Sagebrush steppe of North America is considered highly imperilled, in part owing to increased fire frequency. Sagebrush ecosystems support numerous species, and it is important to understand those factors that affect rates of post-fire sagebrush recovery. We explored recovery of Wyoming big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ssp. wyomingensis ) and basin big sagebrush ( A. tridentata ssp. tridentata ) communities following fire in the northern Columbia Basin (Washington, USA). We sampled plots across 16 fires that burned in big sagebrush communities from 5 to 28 years ago, and also sampled nearby unburned locations. Mixed-effects models demonstrated that density of large–mature big sagebrush plants and percentage cover of big sagebrush were higher with time since fire and in plots with more precipitation during the winter immediately following fire, but were lower when precipitation the next winter was higher than average, especially on soils with higher available water supply, and with greater post-fire mortality of mature big sagebrush plants. Bunchgrass cover 5 to 28 years after fire was predicted to be lower with higher cover of both shrubs and non-native herbaceous species, and only slightly higher with time. Post-fire recovery of big sagebrush in the northern Columbia Basin is a slow process that may require several decades on average, but faster recovery rates may occur under specific site and climate conditions.

Washington↗

USGS2016

The integrated rangeland fire management strategy actionable science plan

The Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy (hereafter Strategy, DOI 2015) outlined the need for coordinated, science-based adaptive management to achieve long-term protection, conservation, and restoration of the sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystem. A key component of this management approach is the identification of knowledge gaps that limit implementation of effective strategies to meet current management challenges. The tasks and actions identified in the Strategy address several broad topics related to management of the sagebrush ecosystem. This science plan is organized around these topics and specifically focuses on fire, invasive plant species and their effects on altering fire regimes, restoration, sagebrush and greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), and climate and weather.

Report↗

USGS2015

Fire patterns in the range of the greater sage-grouse, 1984-2013 - Implications for conservation and management

Fire ranks among the top three threats to the greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) throughout its range, and among the top two threats in the western part of its range. The national research strategy for this species and the recent U.S. Department of the Interior Secretarial Order 3336 call for science-based threats assessment of fire to inform conservation planning and fire management efforts. The cornerstone of such assessments is a clear understanding of where fires are occurring and what aspects of fire regimes may be shifting outside of their historical range of variation. This report fulfills this need by describing patterns of fire area, fire size, fire rotation, and fire season length and timing from 1984 to 2013 across the range of the greater sage-grouse. This information need is further addressed by evaluating the ecological and management implications of these fire patterns. Analyses are stratified by major vegetation types and the seven greater sage-grouse management zones, delineated regionally as four western and three eastern management zones. Soil temperature and moisture indicators of resilience to fire and resistance to cheatgrass invasion, and the potential for establishment of a grass/fire cycle, are used as unifying concepts in developing fire threat assessments for each analysis strata. The results indicate that fire threats are higher in the four western than in the three eastern management zones. Among the four western management zones, the Snake River Plain and the Columbia Basin ranked somewhat higher than the Southern Great Basin and Northern Great Basin in terms of fire effects on sage-grouse habitat. These results support the previous high ranking of fire as a threat to the greater sage-grouse in the western region. In contrast, considering the low rankings for fire threats in the eastern region, it may be useful to reconsider the relative importance of wildfire as a threat to greater sage-grouse in those three management zones.

California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oreg↗

USGS2015

Fire modulates climate change response of simulated aspen distribution across topoclimatic gradients in a semi-arid montane landscape

Content Changing aspen distribution in response to climate change and fire is a major focus of biodiversity conservation, yet little is known about the potential response of aspen to these two driving forces along topoclimatic gradients. Objective This study is set to evaluate how aspen distribution might shift in response to different climate-fire scenarios in a semi-arid montane landscape, and quantify the influence of fire regime along topoclimatic gradients. Methods We used a novel integration of a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) with a fine-scale climatic water deficit approach to simulate dynamics of aspen and associated conifer and shrub species over the next 150 years under various climate-fire scenarios. Results Simulations suggest that many aspen stands could persist without fire for centuries under current climate conditions. However, a simulated 2–5 °C increase in temperature caused a substantial reduction of aspen coverage at lower elevations and a modest increase at upper elevations, leading to an overall reduction of aspen range at the landscape level. Increasing fire activity may favor aspen increase at its upper elevation limits adjacent to coniferous forest, but may also favor reduction of aspen at lower elevation limits adjacent to xeric shrubland. Conclusions Our study highlights the importance of incorporating fine-scale terrain effects on climatic water deficit and ecohydrology when modeling species distribution response to climate change. This modeling study suggests that climate mitigation and adaptation strategies that use fire would benefit from consideration of spatial context at landscape scales.

Landscape Ecology↗

USGS2015

Approaches to modeling landscape-scale drought-induced forest mortality

Drought stress is an important cause of tree mortality in forests, and drought-induced disturbance events are projected to become more common in the future due to climate change. Landscape Disturbance and Succession Models (LDSM) are becoming widely used to project climate change impacts on forests, including potential interactions with natural and anthropogenic disturbances, and to explore the efficacy of alternative management actions to mitigate negative consequences of global changes on forests and ecosystem services. Recent studies incorporating drought-mortality effects into LDSMs have projected significant potential changes in forest composition and carbon storage, largely due to differential impacts of drought on tree species and interactions with other disturbance agents. In this chapter, we review how drought affects forest ecosystems and the different ways drought effects have been modeled (both spatially and aspatially) in the past. Building on those efforts, we describe several approaches to modeling drought effects in LDSMs, discuss advantages and shortcomings of each, and include two case studies for illustration. The first approach features the use of empirically derived relationships between measures of drought and the loss of tree biomass to drought-induced mortality. The second uses deterministic rules of species mortality for given drought events to project changes in species composition and forest distribution. A third approach is more mechanistic, simulating growth reductions and death caused by water stress. Because modeling of drought effects in LDSMs is still in its infancy, and because drought is expected to play an increasingly important role in forest health, further development of modeling drought-forest dynamics is urgently needed.

Book chapter↗