Geology topics

Donald N. Lindsay

Publications and source records attributed to Donald N. Lindsay.

12 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Multi-site evaluation of a postfire debris-flow runout forecast method

Postfire debris flows pose a hazard to human life, property, and infrastructure when they travel from steep source areas to urbanized alluvial fans or other developed areas. Existing methods for rapid (<1 week) postfire debris-flow hazard assessment document the increase in the likelihood and size of debris flows as the magnitude of high-intensity rain necessary to initiate debris flows increases but do not indicate the extent of downstream debris-flow runout. Although many models for the simulation of debris-flow motion are available, there is no established approach for using these models to delineate locations susceptible to postfire debris-flow runout that (a) is feasible to use at the spatial scale of an entire fire; (b) is appropriate for runout onto unconfined areas; (c) reproduces observed relations between runout and rainfall intensity; and (d) characterizes inherent uncertainty in runout, even without spatiotemporally variable rainfall. We propose and evaluate a method for generating postfire debris-flow runout hazard maps that has all the above qualities. Selection of case studies prioritized events triggered by a range of rainfall intensities, locations within and outside of southern California, and observed runout onto unconfined topography. Qualitative and quantitative assessment of performance for four events indicate that simulation results broadly match observations albeit with some discrepancies at a scale larger than structure or land parcel level (approximately 20-m by 20-m). The method may be used to identify potentially hazardous areas immediately following a fire and to provide approximate runout forecasts when a storm is imminent.

Arizona, California↗

USGS2025

Improved prediction of postfire debris flows through rainfall anomaly maps

Predicting where runoff-generated debris flows might occur during rainfall on steep, recently burned terrain is challenging. Studies of mass-movement processes in unburned areas indicate that event locations are well-predicted by rainfall anomaly, R* , in which peak observed rainfall is normalized by local rainfall climatology. Here, we use remote and field methods to map debris flows triggered within the 2020 Dolan Fire burn area in coastal California, demonstrate that a short-duration R* metric predicts debris-flow occurrence more effectively than absolute peak intensity or longer-duration rainfall metrics, and show that incorporating an R* criterion into an existing debris-flow likelihood model can reduce false positive predictions and improve accuracy. We test R * at three other climatically distinct fires in California, demonstrating its utility for mapping likely debris-flow locations in different climates. We also consider how R* can benefit postfire debris-flow prediction given recent increases in climatological variability within individual burn perimeters.

Callifornia↗

USGS2025

Landsliding follows signatures of wildfire history and vegetative regrowth in a steep coastal shrubland

Five years after the deadly and destructive 9 January 2018 Montecito debris flows (Santa Barbara County, California, USA), an atmospheric river storm on 9 January 2023 triggered widespread landsliding that affected many of the same drainages in the Santa Ynez Mountains. Using high-resolution aerial imagery, we identified >10,000 landslides over an ∼160 km 2 area. Most of the landslides were shallow (<1 m in depth) translational debris slides that initiated on steep (∼40°), south-facing hillslopes, with the highest incidence of landsliding in a sandstone-dominated bedrock unit. The landslides mobilized into debris flows and delivered substantial quantities of sediment downstream, which contributed to costly infrastructure impairments. We detected order-of-magnitude differences in landslide density across the study area that could not be attributed to variations in geomorphology (topographic aspect and slope), geology (bedrock type), or hydrology (seasonal antecedent rainfall, peak hourly storm rainfall intensity, total storm rainfall), which are usually considered relevant factors for shallow landsliding. Rather, we found that vegetation regrowth following wildfire was likely a relevant factor associated with the highly variable landslide densities. Hillslopes with less and different types of vegetation regrowth after fire appear to have been more susceptible to shallow landslides. We identify a possible vegetation control on postfire landsliding, which highlights an opportunity for hypothesis testing using more advanced techniques to track the evolution of vegetation cover and vegetation type in steep shrubland environments following wildfire.

California↗

USGS2025

Rainfall thresholds for postfire debris-flow initiation vary with short-duration rainfall climatology

The size, frequency, and geographic scope of severe wildfires are expanding across the globe, including in the Western United States. Recently burned steeplands have an increased likelihood of debris flows, which pose hazards to downstream communities. The conditions for postfire debris-flow initiation are commonly expressed as rainfall intensity-duration thresholds, which can be estimated given sufficient observational history. However, the spread of wildfire across diverse climates poses a challenge for accurate threshold prediction in areas with limited observations. Studies of mass-movement processes in unburned areas indicate that thresholds vary with local climate, such that higher rainfall rates are required for initiation in climates characterized by frequent intense rainfall. Here, we use three independent methods to test whether initiation of postfire runoff-generated debris flows across the Western United States varies similarly with climate. Through the compilation of observed thresholds at various fires, analysis of the spatial density of observed debris flows, and quantification of feature importance at different spatial scales, we show that postfire debris-flow initiation thresholds vary systematically with short-duration rainfall-intensity climatology. The predictive power of climatological data sets that are readily available before a fire occurs offers a much-needed tool for hazard management in regions that are facing increased wildfire activity, have sparse observational history, and/or have limited resources for field-based hazard assessment. Furthermore, if the observed variation in thresholds reflects long-term adjustment of the landscape to local climate, rapid shifts in rainfall intensity related to climate change will likely induce spatially variable shifts in postfire debris-flow likelihood.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,↗

USGS2025

Post-fire sediment yield from a western Sierra Nevada watershed burned by the 2021 Caldor Fire

Watershed sediment yield commonly increases after wildfire, often causing negative impacts to downstream infrastructure and water resources. Post-fire erosion is important to understand and quantify because it is increasingly placing water supplies, habitat, communities, and infrastructure at risk as fire regimes intensify in a warming climate. However, measurements of post-fire sediment mobilization are lacking from many regions. We measured sediment yield from a forested, heavily managed 25.4-km 2 watershed in the western Sierra Nevada, California, over 2 years following the 2021 Caldor Fire, by repeat mapping of a reservoir where sediment accumulated from terrain with moderate to high soil burn severity. Sediment yield was less than the geochronology-derived long-term average in the first year post-fire (conservatively estimated at 21.8–28.0 t/km 2 ), low enough to be difficult to measure with uncrewed airborne system (UAS) and bathymetric sonar survey methods that are most effective at detecting larger sedimentary signals. In the second year post-fire the sediment delivery was 1,560–2,010 t/km 2 , an order of magnitude above long-term values, attributable to greater precipitation and intensive salvage logging. Hillslope erosion simulated by the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model overestimated the measured amount by a factor of 90 in the first year and in the second year by a factor (1.9) that aligned with previously determined model performance in northern California. We encourage additional field studies, and validation of erosion models where feasible, to further expand the range of conditions informing post-fire hazard assessments and management decisions.

California↗

USGS2024

Postfire sediment mobilization and its downstream implications across California, 1984 – 2021

Fire facilitates erosion through changes in vegetation and soil, with major postfire erosion commonly occurring even with moderate rainfall. As climate warms, the western United States (U.S.) is experiencing an intensifying fire regime and increasing frequency of extreme rain. We evaluated whether these hydroclimatic changes are evident in patterns of postfire erosion by modeling hillslope erosion following all wildfires larger than 100 km 2 in California from 1984 to 2021. Our results show that annual statewide postfire hillslope erosion has increased significantly over time. To supplement the hillslope erosion modeling, we compiled modeled and measured postfire debris-flow volumes. We find that, in northern California, more than 50% of fires triggering the top 20 values of sediment mass and sediment yield occurred in the most recent decade (between 2011 and 2021). In southern California, the postfire sediment budget was dominated by debris flows, which showed no temporal trend. Our analysis reveals that 57% of postfire sediment erosion statewide occurred upstream of reservoirs, indicating potential impacts to reservoir storage capacity and thus increased risk to water-resource security with ongoing climate change.

California↗

USGS2024

A robust quantitative method to distinguish runoff-generated debris flows from floods

Debris flows and floods generated by rainfall runoff occur in rocky mountainous landscapes and burned steeplands. Flow type is commonly identified post-event through interpretation of depositional structures, but these may be poorly preserved or misinterpreted. Prior research indicates that discharge magnitude is commonly amplified in debris flows relative to floods due to volumetric bulking and increased frictional resistance. Here, we use this flow amplification to develop a metric ( Q* ) to separate debris flows from floods based on the ratio of observed peak discharge to the theoretical maximum water discharge from rainfall runoff. We compile 642 observations of floods and debris flows and demonstrate that Q* distinguishes flow type to ∼92% accuracy. Q* allows for accurate identification of debris flows through simple channel cross-section surveys rather than through qualitative interpretation of deposits, and therefore should increase the performance of models and engineered structures that require accurate flow-type observations.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2023

The spatial distribution of debris flows in relation to observed rainfall anomalies: Insights from the Dolan Fire, California

A range of hydrologic responses can be observed in steep, recently burned terrain, which makes predicting the spatial distribution of large debris flows challenging. Studies from rainfall-induced landslides in unburned areas show evidence of hydroclimatic tuning of landslide triggering, such that the spatial distribution of events is best predicted by the observed rainfall anomaly relative to climatic norms rather than by absolute rainfall. In this paper, we test whether the spatial distribution of debris flows in response to rainfall can be similarly predicted by rainfall anomaly. The 520 km 2 Dolan Fire burn scar in Monterey County, California, USA, spans a sharp hydroclimatic gradient and experienced a widespread storm in January 2021 that triggered floods and debris flows, providing a natural experiment in which to test this hypothesis. In this study, we use remote and field methods to map debris-flow response and examine its spatial heterogeneity. Together with rainfall data, our mapping reveals that the observed anomalies in peak 15-min rainfall intensity (I 15 ) relative to the intensity of the 1-yr return interval storm predict debris-flow occurrence better than the absolute peak I 15 . Our findings indicate that debris-flow processes and threshold rainfall required for debris-flow initiation may be tuned to local hydroclimate.

California↗

USGS2023

Postfire hydrologic response along the central California (USA) coast: Insights for the emergency assessment of postfire debris-flow hazards

The steep, tectonically active terrain along the Central California (USA) coast is well known to produce deadly and destructive debris flows. However, the extent to which fire affects debris-flow susceptibility in this region is an open question. We documented the occurrence of postfire debris floods and flows following the landfall of a storm that delivered intense rainfall across multiple burn areas. We used this inventory to evaluate the predictive performance of the US Geological Survey M1 likelihood model, a tool that presently underlies the emergency assessment of postfire debris-flow hazards in the western USA. To test model performance, we used the threat score skill statistic and found that the rainfall thresholds estimated by the M1 model for the Central California coast performed similarly to training (Southern California) and testing (Intermountain West) data associated with the original model calibration. Model performance decreased when differentiating between “minor” and “major” postfire hydrologic response types, which weigh effects on human life and infrastructure. Our results underscore that the problem of false positives is a major challenge for developing accurate rainfall thresholds for the occurrence of postfire debris flows. As wildfire activity increases throughout the western USA, so too will the demand for the assessment of postfire debris-flow hazards. We conclude that additional collection of field-verified inventories of postfire hydrologic response will be critical to prioritize which model variables may be suitable candidates for regional calibration or replacement.

California↗

USGS2023

The rainfall intensity-duration control of debris flows after wildfire

Increased wildfire activity in the western United States has exposed regional gaps in our understanding of postfire debris-flow generation. To address this problem, we characterized flows in an unstudied area to test the rainfall intensity-duration control of the hazard. Our rainfall measurements and field observations from the northern Sierra Nevada (California, USA) show that debris flows resulted from a short burst rainfall during a low-accumulation storm. In contrast, a much higher accumulation storm (∼10 times more rainfall) with lower short-duration rainfall rates only produced low-hazard flooding. We conclude that total storm rainfall is not an ideal metric for identifying the rainfall conditions that initiate runoff-generated debris flows in the first year after wildfire. Rather, a focus on short-duration (<1 hr), high-intensity rainfall that can occur during localized thunderstorms, or bands of intense rainfall during prolonged rainstorms, is more beneficial for the purposes of hazard assessment and warning.

California↗

USGS2021

Watershed sediment yield following the 2018 Carr Fire, Whiskeytown National Recreation Area, northern California

Wildfire risk has increased in recent decades over many regions, due to warming climate and other factors. Increased sediment export from recently burned landscapes can jeopardize downstream infrastructure and water resources, but physical landscape response to fire has not been quantified for some at-risk areas, including much of northern California, USA. We measured sediment yield from three watersheds (13–29 km 2 ) that drain to Whiskeytown Lake, California, within the area burned by the 2018 Carr Fire. Structure-from-Motion photogrammetry on aerial images combined with sonar bathymetric mapping of submerged areas indicated first-year post-fire sediment yields of 4,080 ± 598 t/km 2 (Brandy Creek), 2,700 ± 527 t/km 2 (Boulder Creek), and 305 ± 58.0 t/km 2 (Whiskey Creek)—some of the first post-fire yields measured in northern California and 64, 42, and 4.8 times greater than pre-fire yields, respectively. These were measured during a wet year and resulted largely from rilling erosion and fluvial sediment transport, without post-fire debris flows. Rilling preferentially developed in contact with dirt roads, aided by thin soils and exposed bedrock, and on slopes vegetated by chaparral pre-fire. The second post-fire year (a dry year) was characterized by fluvial reworking and delta progradation of the first-year deposits and relatively little new sediment export. First-year sedimentation of 111,000 m 3 represented minor loss of storage capacity in Whiskeytown Lake but would be detrimental to smaller reservoirs; in general, increased sediment yields from western US watersheds as fire and extreme rainfall increase will likely pose risks to water quality and storage.

California↗

USGS2019

Inundation, flow dynamics, and damage in the 9 January 2018 Montecito Debris-Flow Event, California, USA: Opportunities and challenges for post-wildfire risk assessment

Shortly before the beginning of the winter rainy season, one of the largest fires in California history (Thomas Fire) substantially increased the susceptibility of steep slopes in Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties to debris flows. On January 9, 2018, before the fire was fully contained, an intense burst of rain fell on the portion of the burn area above Montecito, CA. The rainfall and associated runoff triggered a series of debris flows that mobilized approximately 680,000 m3 of sediment (including boulders >4 m) at velocities up to 4 m/s down urbanized alluvial fans. The resulting destruction (including 23 fatalities, at least 167 injuries, and 408 damaged homes) underscores the need for improved understanding of debris-flow runout in the built environment, and the need for a comprehensive framework to assess the potential loss from debris flows following wildfire. We present observations of the inundation, debris-flow dynamics, and damage from the event. The data include field measurements of flow depth and deposit characteristics made 12 days after the event (before ephemeral features of the deposits were lost to recovery operations); an inventory of building damage; estimates of flow velocity; information on flow timing; soil-hydrologic properties; and post-event imagery and lidar. Together, these data provide rare spatial and dynamic constraints for testing debris-flow runout models, which are needed for advancing post-fire debris-flow hazard assessments. Our analysis also outlines a framework for translating the results of these models into estimates of economic loss based on an adaptation of the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s Hazus model for tsunamis.

California↗