Geology topics

Donald J. Brown

Publications and source records attributed to Donald J. Brown.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

Quantifying the relative importance of survival threats to a long-lived reptile using expert elicitation

Long-term survival of a conservation-reliant species requires understanding the impact of threats on population growth rate and the management actions that can help mitigate these threats. We used a threat assessment with expert-elicited estimates to determine the relative effect of each stage-specific threat on the population growth rate of the wood turtle Glyptemys insculpta . In addition, we offered potential management actions that could mitigate these threats and examined the relative cost and benefit of each. The experts responded that predators had the largest effect on hatchling and juvenile survival and that road mortality had the largest effect on adult survival. The population growth rate of the simulated turtle population increased the most when predators were removed from the system, though the population trajectory remained negative. Finally, we found that predator control had the lowest cost:benefit ratio of the proposed management actions. The process used in this analysis of expert elicitation combined with modeling that accounts for uncertainty proved to be a useful technique that is less expensive and labor intensive than empirical studies and quicker to implement, although it relies on sufficient empirical studies to inform expert responses. This process could be replicated for other species to inform species status assessments.

Endangered Species Research↗

USGS2022

Evaluating the effect of expert elicitation techniques on population status assessment in the face of large uncertainty

Population projection models are important tools for conservation and management. They are often used for population status assessments, for threat analyses, and to predict the consequences of conservation actions. Although conservation decisions should be informed by science, critical decisions are often made with very little information to support decision-making. Conversely, postponing decisions until better information is available may reduce the benefit of a conservation decision. When empirical data are limited or lacking, expert elicitation can be used to supplement existing data and inform model parameter estimates. The use of rigorous techniques for expert elicitation that account for uncertainty can improve the quality of the expert elicited values and therefore the accuracy of the projection models. One recurring challenge for summarizing expert elicited values is how to aggregate them. Here, we illustrate a process for population status assessment using a combination of expert elicitation and data from the ecological literature. We discuss the importance of considering various aggregation techniques, and illustrate this process using matrix population models for the wood turtle ( Glyptemys insculpta ) to assist U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service decision-makers with their Species Status Assessment. We compare estimates of population growth using data from the ecological literature and four alternative aggregation techniques for the expert-elicited values. The estimate of population growth rate based on estimates from the literature (λ mean = 0.952, 95% CI: 0.87–1.01) could not be used to unequivocally reject the hypotheses of a rapidly declining population nor the hypothesis of a stable, or even slightly growing population, whereas our results for the expert-elicited estimates supported the hypothesis that the wood turtle population will decline over time. Our results showed that the aggregation techniques used had an impact on model estimates, suggesting that the choice of techniques should be carefully considered. We discuss the benefits and limitations associated with each method and their relevance to the population status assessment. We note a difference in the temporal scope or inference between the literature-based estimates that provided insights about historical changes, whereas the expert-based estimates were forward looking. Therefore, conducting an expert-elicitation in addition to using parameter estimates from the literature improved our understanding of our species of interest.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS2020

Bioaccumulation of the pesticide imidacloprid in stream organisms and sublethal effects on salamanders

Neonicotinoids are one of the most widely used classes of insecticides in the world. The neonicotinoid imidacloprid is commonly applied to hemlock ( Tsuga spp.) stands in eastern North America to reduce tree mortality from infestations of the invasive hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA; Adelges tsugae ). While laboratory and mesocosm studies have determined that imidacloprid can bioaccumulate in anurans and cause sublethal effects, no field studies have investigated whether salamanders or insects in streams adjacent to HWA treatments bioaccumulate imidacloprid or if sublethal effects are detectable in wild salamanders. We assessed relationships between imidacloprid exposure and stream salamander health in West Virginia, USA, using concentration of the stress hormone corticosterone and body condition indices (BCI) as response variables. Of 107 Desmognathus salamanders from 11 sites tested for bioaccumulation, we detected imidacloprid in 47 salamanders. Of 15 benthic macroinvertebrate samples tested, we detected imidacloprid, imidacloprid-urea, and imidacloprid-olefin in 15, 13, and 1 sample, respectively. Based on 115 Desmognathus salamanders sampled at 11 sites for stress hormone responses, corticosterone concentration increased with imidacloprid concentration in stream water. For 802 salamanders sampled at 48 sites, BCI decreased as concentration of imidacloprid in stream water increased, but explanatory power was low. Our study suggests that chronic leaching of imidacloprid from treated hemlock stands into adjacent streams has the potential to negatively affect aquatic organisms and may provide a route of exposure to higher trophic levels.

West Virginia↗

USGS2019

Influence of climate change and postdelisting management on long-term population viability of the conservation-reliant Kirtland's Warbler

Rapid global climate change is resulting in novel abiotic and biotic conditions and interactions. Identifying management strategies that maximize probability of long-term persistence requires an understanding of the vulnerability of species to environmental changes. We sought to quantify the vulnerability of Kirtland's Warbler ( Setophaga kirtlandii ), a rare Neotropical migratory songbird that breeds almost exclusively in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan and winters in the Bahamian Archipelago, to projected environmental changes on the breeding and wintering grounds. We developed a population-level simulation model that incorporates the influence of annual environmental conditions on the breeding and wintering grounds, and parameterized the model using empirical relationships. We simulated independent and additive effects of reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity and quality, and wintering grounds habitat quality, on population viability. Our results indicated the Kirtland's Warbler population is stable under current environmental and management conditions. Reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity resulted in reductions of the stable population size, but did not cause extinction under the scenarios we examined. In contrast, projected large reductions in wintering grounds precipitation caused the population to decline, with risk of extinction magnified when breeding habitat quantity or quality also decreased. Our study indicates that probability of long-term persistence for Kirtland's Warbler will depend on climate change impacts to wintering grounds habitat quality and contributes to the growing literature documenting the importance of considering the full annual cycle for understanding population dynamics of migratory species.

Michigan↗

USGS2019

Proximity to unconventional shale gas infrastructure alters breeding bird abundance and distribution

Unconventional shale gas development is a rapidly expanding driver of forest loss and fragmentation in the central Appalachian region. We evaluated the relationship between breeding passerine abundances and distance from shale gas development at a long-term (2008–2017) study site in northern West Virginia, USA. We examined responses of 27 species within 3 habitat guilds: forest interior, early successional, and synanthropic. More than half of the species evaluated showed sensitivity to distance from unconventional shale gas infrastructure (e.g., well pads, access roads, pipelines). Five forest interior species occurred in greater abundances farther from shale gas development, whereas 3 forest interior gap specialists increased in abundance closer to shale gas. Early successional and synanthropic species, including the nest-parasitic Brown-headed Cowbird ( Molothrus ater ), generally occurred in greater abundances closer to shale gas infrastructure. We used interpolated distributions of 4 focal species to assess their spatial response to unconventional shale gas development over time. Our results indicate that breeding passerine distributions and community composition are changing with forest disturbance driven by unconventional shale gas energy development.

West Vigninia↗

USGS2019

Cerulean Warbler (Setophaga cerulea) response to operational silviculture in the central Appalachian region

The Cerulean Warbler ( Setophaga cerulea ) is a species of conservation need, with declines linked in part to forest habitat loss on its breeding grounds. Active management of forests benefit the Cerulean Warbler by creating the complex structural conditions preferred by the species, but further research is needed to determine optimal silvicultural strategies. We quantified and compared the broad-scale influence of timber harvests within central Appalachian hardwood forests on estimated abundance and territory density of Cerulean Warblers. We conducted point counts at seven study areas across three states within the central Appalachian region (West Virginia [n = 4], Kentucky [n = 1], Virginia [n = 2]) and territory mapping at two of the study areas in West Virginia, pre- and post-harvest, for up to five breeding seasons from 2013 to 2017. Our primary objective was to relate change in abundance to topographic and vegetation metrics to evaluate the effectiveness of current Cerulean Warbler habitat management guidelines. We used single-species hierarchical ( N -mixture) models to estimate abundance while accounting for detection biases. Pre-harvest mean basal area among study areas was 29.3 m 2 /ha. Harvesting reduced mean basal area among study areas by 40% (mean 17.2 m 2 /ha) at harvest interior and harvest edge points. Territory density increased 100% ( P = 0.003) from pre-harvest to two years post-harvest. Cerulean Warbler abundance increased with increasing percentage of basal area that comprised tree species preferred for foraging and nesting (i.e., white oak species, sugar maple [ Acer saccharum ], hickories) or of large diameter trees (≥40.6 cm diameter at breast height). Positive population growth was predicted to occur where these vegetation metrics were >50% of residual basal area. Post-harvest abundance at harvest interior points was greater than at reference points and when accounting for years-post-harvest in modeling abundance, Cerulean Warbler abundance increased at harvest interior and reference points two years post-harvest and subsequently decreased three years post-harvest. Modeled abundance remained the same at harvest edge points. Increases in abundance and territory density were greater in stands with low pre-harvest densities (<2 birds/point or <0.40 territory/ha) of Cerulean Warblers, whereas populations within stands with higher densities pre-harvest had minimal changes in abundance and territory density. Overall, our results indicate that harvests based on the Cerulean Warbler Management Guidelines for Enhancing Breeding Habitat in Appalachian Hardwood Forests, at all available slope positions and aspects where pre-harvest densities are <0.40 territory/ha, may provide breeding habitat for Cerulean Warblers for at least two years post-harvest in the central Appalachian region.

West Virginia↗

USGS2019

Trade-offs relating to grassland and forest mine reclamation approaches in the central Appalachian region and its implications for the songbird community

Surface mining in the Appalachian region, USA, converts large areas of mature forest to early-successional habitat. This shift in landscape structure has the potential to reduce habitat availability and suitability for forest-dwelling songbirds by reducing and fragmenting mature forest, but also to increase habitat availability for grassland and shrubland-associated songbirds. We examined the influence of mountaintop mining/valley fill (MTMVF) reclamation habitats (grassland, shrubland, and remnant forest) on songbird community composition and abundance at three former MTMVF mines in southwestern West Virginia, relative to intact forest. We quantified the songbird community in 1999 and 2000 using point counts arranged throughout the mine complexes to assess landscape composition of the songbird community. Community analysis showed songbirds had strong associations with their respective guild based on species’ habitat preferences. Although remnant and intact forest treatments had similar species compositions, the forest interior guild had greater richness in intact than remnant forest. Total species richness was greatest in the reclaimed shrubland treatment. Focal species analysis followed similar trends as community assessments, as species’ abundances within treatment types were strongly associated with species’ habitat preferences. Our study indicates reclamation habitat decisions (i.e. grasslands versus forests) can have large effects on avian community composition. Determining appropriate mine restoration actions depends on the suite of species desired for long-term occupancy and their conservation priority.

Appalachian Basin↗

USGS2018

Managing forest habitat for conservation-reliant species in a changing climate: The case of the endangered Kirtland’s Warbler

Conservation and recovery of species of concern necessitates evaluating forest habitat conditions under changing climate conditions, especially in the early stages of the delisting process. Managers must weigh implications of near-term habitat management activities within the context of changing environmental conditions and a species’ biological traits that may influence their vulnerability to changing conditions. Here we applied established population-habitat relationships based on decades of monitoring and research-management collaborations for the Kirtland’s Warbler ( Setophaga kirtlandii ) to project potential impacts of changing environmental conditions to breeding habitat distribution, quantity, and quality in the near future. Kirtland’s warblers are habitat-specialists that nest exclusively within dense jack pine ( Pinus banksiana ) forests between ca. 5–20 years of age. Using Random Forests to predict changes in distribution and growth rate of jack pine under future scenarios, results indicate the projected distribution of jack pine will contract considerably (ca. 75%) throughout the Lake States region, U.S.A. in response to projected environmental conditions in 2099 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios regardless of climate model. Reduced suitability for jack pine regeneration across the Lake States may constrain management options, especially for creating high stem-density plantations nesting habitat. However, conditions remain suitable for jack pine regeneration within their historical and current core breeding range in northern Lower Michigan and several satellite breeding areas. Projected changes in jack pine growth rates varied within the core breeding area, but altered growth rates did not greatly alter the duration that habitat remained suitable for nesting by the Kirtland’s Warblers. These findings contribute to Kirtland’s Warbler conservation by informing habitat spatial planning of plantation management to provide a constant supply of nesting habitat based on the spatial variability of potential loss or gain of lands environmentally suitable for regenerating jack pine in the long-term.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗

USGS2017

Responses of terrestrial herpetofauna to persistent, novel ecosystems resulting from mountaintop removal mining

Mountaintop removal mining is a large-scale surface mining technique that removes entire floral and faunal communities, along with soil horizons located above coal seams. In West Virginia, the majority of this mining occurs on forested mountaintops. However, after mining ceases the land is typically reclaimed to grasslands and shrublands, resulting in novel ecosystems. In this study, we examined responses of herpetofauna to these novel ecosystems 10–28 y postreclamation. We quantified differences in species-specific habitat associations, (sub)order-level abundances, and habitat characteristics in four habitat types: reclaimed grassland, reclaimed shrubland, forest fragments in mined areas, and nonmined intact forest. Habitat type accounted for 33.2% of the variation in species-specific captures. With few exceptions, forest specialists were associated with intact forest and fragmented forest sites, while habitat generalists were either associated with grassland and shrubland sites or were distributed among all habitat types. At the (sub)order level, salamander (Order Urodela) captures were highest at fragmented and intact forest sites, frog and toad (Order Anura) captures were lowest at intact forest sites, and snake (Suborder Serpentes) captures were highest at shrubland sites. Habitat type was a strong predictor for estimated total abundance of urodeles, but not for anurans or snakes. Tree stem densities in grasslands differed from the other three habitat types, and large trees (>38 cm diameter at breast height) were only present at forest sites. Overstory vegetation cover was greater in forested than in reclaimed habitat types. Ground cover in reclaimed grasslands was distinct from forest treatments with generally less woody debris and litter cover and more vegetative cover. It is important to consider the distributions of habitat specialists of conservation concern when delineating potential mountaintop mine sites, as these sites will likely contain unsuitable habitat for forest specialists for decades or centuries when reclaimed to grassland or shrubland.

West Virginia↗

USGS2016

Using a full annual cycle model to evaluate long-term population viability of the conservation-reliant Kirtland's warbler after successful recovery

Long-term management planning for conservation-reliant migratory songbirds is particularly challenging because habitat quality in different stages and geographic locations of the annual cycle can have direct and carry-over effects that influence the population dynamics. The Neotropical migratory songbird Kirtland's warbler Setophaga kirtlandii (Baird 1852) is listed as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and Near Threatened under the IUCN Red List. This conservation-reliant species is being considered for U.S. federal delisting because the species has surpassed the designated 1000 breeding pairs recovery threshold since 2001. To help inform the delisting decision and long-term management efforts, we developed a population simulation model for the Kirtland's warbler that incorporated both breeding and wintering grounds habitat dynamics, and projected population viability based on current environmental conditions and potential future management scenarios. Future management scenarios included the continuation of current management conditions, reduced productivity and carrying capacity due to the changes in habitat suitability from the creation of experimental jack pine Pinus banksiana (Lamb.) plantations, and reduced productivity from alteration of the brown-headed cowbird Molothrus ater (Boddaert 1783) removal programme. Linking wintering grounds precipitation to productivity improved the accuracy of the model for replicating past observed population dynamics. Our future simulations indicate that the Kirtland's warbler population is stable under two potential future management scenarios: (i) continuation of current management practices and (ii) spatially restricting cowbird removal to the core breeding area, assuming that cowbirds reduce productivity in the remaining patches by ≤41%. The additional future management scenarios we assessed resulted in population declines. Synthesis and applications . Our study indicates that the Kirtland's warbler population is stable under current management conditions and that the jack pine plantation and cowbird removal programmes continue to be necessary for the long-term persistence of the species. This study represents one of the first attempts to incorporate full annual cycle dynamics into a population viability analysis for a migratory bird, and our results indicate that incorporating wintering grounds dynamics improved the model performance.

Michigan↗