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Diogo Bolster

Publications and source records attributed to Diogo Bolster.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

Resolution sensitivities for subgrid modeling of coastal flooding

Flooding due to storm surge can propagate through coastal regions to threaten the built and natural environments. This propagation is controlled by geographic features of varying scales, from the largest oceans to the smallest marsh channels and sandy dunes. Numerical models to predict coastal flooding have been improved via the use of subgrid corrections, which use information about the smallest-scale flow controls to provide corrections to coarser scale grids. Although previous studies have demonstrated the benefits of subgrid models, especially how coarser models can be more efficient without a trade-off in accuracy, this study systematically investigates subgrid corrections in storm surge models across large domains. Here, we apply the widely used ADVanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) storm surge model with revised subgrid corrections to develop guidance for resolution of coastal regions. Recent hurricanes in the South Atlantic Bight are simulated with five models, each with varying resolution of coastal islands, estuaries, rivers, and floodplains. Model performance is quantified via comparisons with observed data and high-resolution simulations. Clear degradation is observed in the subgrid model performance as minimum mesh resolution becomes coarser than the width of channels conveying flow or the barrier islands blocking flow. Therefore, subgrid model mesh resolution should account for spatial scales of local flow pathways and barrier islands to maintain proper model mass and momentum transfer. However, with subgrid modeling this can be done at much coarser (and thus computationally faster) resolutions than with conventional models.

south Atlantic coast

Projected changes of regional lake hydrologic characteristics in response to 21st century climate change

Inland lakes are socially and ecologically important components of many regional landscapes. Exploring lake responses to plausible future climate scenarios can provide important information needed to inform stakeholders of likely effects of hydrologic changes on these waterbodies in coming decades. To assess potential climate effects on lake hydrology, we combined a previously published spatially explicit, processed-based hydrologic modeling framework implemented over the lake-rich landscape of the Northern Highlands Lake District within the United States with an ensemble of climate change scenarios for the 2050s (2041–2070) and 2080s (2071–2100). Model results quantify the effects of climate change on water budgets and lake stage elevations for 3692 lakes and highlight the importance of landscape and hydrologic setting for the response of specific lake types to climate change. All future climate projections resulted in loss of ice cover and snowpack as well as increased evaporation, but variability in climate projections (warmer conditions, wet winters combined with wet or dry summers) interacted with lake characteristics and landscape position to produce variable lake hydrologic changes. Water levels for drainage lakes (lakes with substantial surface water inflows and outflows) showed nearly no change, whereas minimum water levels for seepage lakes (minimal surface water fluxes) decreased by an average of up to 2.64 m by the end of the 21st century. Our physically based modeling approach is parsimonious and computationally efficient and can be applied to other lake-rich regions to investigate interregional variability in lake hydrologic response to future climate scenarios.

Michigan, Wisconsin

Cross-scale interactions dictate regional lake carbon flux and productivity response to future climate

Lakes support globally important food webs through algal productivity and contribute significantly to the global carbon cycle. However, predictions of how broad-scale lake carbon flux and productivity may respond to future climate are extremely limited. Here, we used an integrated modeling framework to project changes in lake-specific and regional primary productivity and carbon fluxes under 21st century climate for thousands of lakes. We observed high uncertainty in whether lakes collectively were to increase or decrease lake CO 2 emissions and carbon burial in our modeled region owing to divergence in projected regional water balance among climate models. Variation in projected air temperature influenced projected changes in lake primary productivity (but not CO 2 emissions or carbon burial) as warmer air temperatures decreased productivity through reduced lake water volume. Cross-scale interactions between regional drivers and local characteristics dictated the magnitude and direction of lake-specific carbon flux and productivity responses to future climate.

Geophysical Research Letters