Geology topics

Diego Coppola

Publications and source records attributed to Diego Coppola.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2022

Structured elicitation of expert judgement in real-time eruption scenarios: An exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island

Formalised elicitation of expert judgements has been used to help tackle several problematic societal issues, including volcanic crises and pandemic threats. We present an expert elicitation exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island, held remotely in April 2021. This involved 28 experts from nine countries who considered a hypothetical effusive eruption crisis involving a new vent opening in a high-risk area. The tele-elicitation presented several challenges, but is a promising and workable option for application to future volcanic crises. Our exercise considered an “uncommon” eruptive scenario with a vent outside the present caldera and within inhabited areas, and provided uncertainty ranges for several hazard-related questions for such a scenario (e.g. probability of eruption within a defined timeframe; elapsed time until lava flow reaches a critical location, and other hazard management issues). Our exercise indicated that such a scenario would probably present very different characteristics compared to recent eruptions, and that it is fundamental to include well-prepared expert elicitations in updated civil protection evacuation plans to improve disaster response procedures.

Volcanica↗

USGS2017

Magmatic degassing, lava dome extrusion, and explosions from Mount Cleveland volcano, Alaska, 2011–2015: Insight into the continuous nature of volcanic activity over multi-year timescales

Mount Cleveland volcano (1730 m) is one of the most active volcanoes in the Aleutian arc, Alaska, but heightened activity is rarely accompanied by geophysical signals, which makes interpretation of the activity difficult. In this study, we combine volcanic gas emissions measured for the first time in August 2015 with longer-term measurements of thermal output and lava extrusion rates between 2011 and 2015 calculated from MODIS satellite data with the aim to develop a better understanding of the nature of volcanic activity at Mount Cleveland. Degassing measurements were made in the month following two explosive events (21 July and 7 August 2015) and during a period of new dome growth in the summit crater. SO 2 emission rates ranged from 400 to 860 t d − 1 and CO 2 /SO 2 ratios were < 3, consistent with the presence of shallow magma in the conduit and the observed growth of a new lava dome. Thermal anomalies derived from MODIS data from 2011 to 2015 had an average repose time of only 4 days, pointing to the continuous nature of volcanic activity at this volcano. Rapid increases in the cumulative thermal output were often coincident with visual confirmation of dome growth or accumulations of tephra in the crater. The average rate of lava extrusion calculated for 9 periods of rapid increase in thermal output was 0.28 m 3 s − 1 , and the total volume extruded from 2011 to 2015 was 1.9–5.8 Mm 3 . The thermal output from the lava extrusion events only accounts for roughly half of the thermal budget, suggesting a continued presence of shallow magma in the upper conduit, likely driven by convection. Axisymmetric dome morphology and occasional drain back of lava into the conduit suggests low-viscosity magmas drive volcanism at Mount Cleveland. It follows also that only small overpressures can be maintained given the small domes and fluid magmas, which is consistent with the low explosivity of most of Mount Cleveland's eruptions. Changes between phases of dome growth and explosive activity are somewhat unpredictable and likely result from plugs that are related to the dome obtaining a critical dimension, or from small variations in the magma ascent rate that lead to crystallization-induced blockages in the upper conduit, thereby reducing the ability of magma to degas. We suggest the small magma volumes, slow ascent rates, and low magma viscosity lead to the overall lack of anomalous geophysical signals prior to eruptions, and that more continuous volcanic degassing measurements might lead to more successful eruption forecasting at this continuously-active open-vent volcano.

Alaska↗

USGS2015

Magma extrusion during the Ubinas 2013–2014 eruptive crisis based on satellite thermal imaging (MIROVA) and ground-based monitoring

After 3 years of mild gases emissions, the Ubinas volcano entered in a new eruptive phase on September 2nd, 2013. The MIROVA system (a space-based volcanic hot-spot detection system), allowed us to detect in near real time the thermal emissions associated with the eruption and provided early evidence of magma extrusion within the deep summit crater. By combining IR data with plume height, sulfur emissions, hot spring temperatures and seismic activity, we interpret the thermal output detected over Ubinas in terms of extrusion rates associated to the eruption. We suggest that the 2013–2014 eruptive crisis can be subdivided into three main phases: ( i ) shallow magma intrusion inside the edifice, (ii) extrusion and growing of a lava plug at the bottom of the summit crater coupled with increasing explosive activity and finally, (iii) disruption of the lava plug and gradual decline of the explosive activity. The occurrence of the 8.2 Mw Iquique (Chile) earthquake (365 km away from Ubinas) on April 1st, 2014, may have perturbed most of the analyzed parameters, suggesting a prompt interaction with the ongoing volcanic activity. In particular, the analysis of thermal and seismic datasets shows that the earthquake may have promoted the most intense thermal and explosive phase that culminated in a major explosion on April 19th, 2014. These results reveal the efficiency of space-based thermal observations in detecting the extrusion of hot magma within deep volcanic craters and in tracking its evolution. We emphasize that, in combination with other geophysical and geochemical datasets, MIROVA is an essential tool for monitoring remote volcanoes with rather difficult accessibility, like those of the Andes that reach remarkably high altitudes.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗