Geology topics

Diann J. Prosser

Publications and source records attributed to Diann J. Prosser.

At least 127 records · Page 7Linked to original sources

USGS2013

Movements of wild ruddy shelducks in the Central Asian Flyway and their spatial relationship to outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1

Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 remains a serious concern for both poultry and human health. Wild waterfowl are considered to be the reservoir for low pathogenic avian influenza viruses; however, relatively little is known about their movement ecology in regions where HPAI H5N1 outbreaks regularly occur. We studied movements of the ruddy shelduck ( Tadorna ferruginea ), a wild migratory waterfowl species that was infected in the 2005 Qinghai Lake outbreak. We defined their migration with Brownian Bridge utilization distribution models and their breeding and wintering grounds with fixed kernel home ranges. We correlated their movements with HPAI H5N1 outbreaks, poultry density, land cover, and latitude in the Central Asian Flyway. Our Akaike Information Criterion analysis indicated that outbreaks were correlated with land cover, latitude, and poultry density. Although shelduck movements were included in the top two models, they were not a top parameter selected in AICc stepwise regression results. However, timing of outbreaks suggested that outbreaks in the flyway began during the winter in poultry with spillover to wild birds during the spring migration. Thus, studies of the movement ecology of wild birds in areas with persistent HPAI H5N1 outbreaks may contribute to understanding their role in transmission of this disease.

Viruses↗

USGS2013

Mapping risk of avian influenza transmission at the interface of domestic poultry and wild birds

Emergence of avian influenza viruses with high lethality to humans, such as the currently circulating highly pathogenic A(H5N1) (emerged in 1996) and A(H7N9) cause serious concern for the global economic and public health sectors. Understanding the spatial and temporal interface between wild and domestic populations, from which these viruses emerge, is fundamental to taking action. This information, however, is rarely considered in influenza risk models, partly due to a lack of data. We aim to identify areas of high transmission risk between domestic poultry and wild waterfowl in China, the epicenter of both viruses. Two levels of models were developed: one that predicts hotspots of novel virus emergence between domestic and wild birds, and one that incorporates H5N1 risk factors, for which input data exists. Models were produced at 1 and 30 km spatial resolution, and two temporal seasons. Patterns of risk varied between seasons with higher risk in the northeast, central-east, and western regions of China during spring and summer, and in the central and southeastern regions during winter. Monte-Carlo uncertainty analyses indicated varying levels of model confidence, with lowest errors in the densely populated regions of eastern and southern China. Applications and limitations of the models are discussed within.

Frontiers in Public Health↗

USGS2013

GPS location history data mining and anomalous detection: the scenario of bar-headed geese migration

It is important to discover common movement sequences and uncommon behaviors during the migration of wild birds. In this paper, we propose a new approach to analyze the GPS location history data of migratory birds. The stopover sites are first extracted from the location history data of birds, and their movement sequences are generated automatically. Then, a consistency calculation method is introduced for calculating the movement sequence consistency degrees among the birds. The common movement sequences and uncommon behaviors can be recognized on the basis of consistency. We conducted experiments on the data collected from bar-headed geese captured in the Qinghai Lake region. The experiment results indicate the correctness of our approach.

Book chapter↗

USGS2012

Eco-virological approach for assessing the role of wild birds in the spread of avian influenza H5N1 along the central Asian flyway

A unique pattern of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks has emerged along the Central Asia Flyway, where infection of wild birds has been reported with steady frequency since 2005. We assessed the potential for two hosts of HPAI H5N1, the bar-headed goose ( Anser indicus ) and ruddy shelduck ( Tadorna tadorna ), to act as agents for virus dispersal along this ‘thoroughfare’. We used an eco-virological approach to compare the migration of 141 birds marked with GPS satellite transmitters during 2005–2010 with: 1) the spatio-temporal patterns of poultry and wild bird outbreaks of HPAI H5N1, and 2) the trajectory of the virus in the outbreak region based on phylogeographic mapping. We found that biweekly utilization distributions (UDs) for 19.2% of bar-headed geese and 46.2% of ruddy shelduck were significantly associated with outbreaks. Ruddy shelduck showed highest correlation with poultry outbreaks owing to their wintering distribution in South Asia, where there is considerable opportunity for HPAI H5N1 spillover from poultry. Both species showed correlation with wild bird outbreaks during the spring migration, suggesting they may be involved in the northward movement of the virus. However, phylogeographic mapping of HPAI H5N1 clades 2.2 and 2.3 did not support dissemination of the virus in a northern direction along the migration corridor. In particular, two subclades (2.2.1 and 2.3.2) moved in a strictly southern direction in contrast to our spatio-temporal analysis of bird migration. Our attempt to reconcile the disciplines of wild bird ecology and HPAI H5N1 virology highlights prospects offered by both approaches as well as their limitations.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2012

Discovering shared segments on the migration route of the bar-headed goose by time-based plane-sweeping trajectory clustering

We propose a new method to help ornithologists and ecologists discover shared segments on the migratory pathway of the bar-headed geese by time-based plane-sweeping trajectory clustering. We present a density-based time parameterized line segment clustering algorithm, which extends traditional comparable clustering algorithms from temporal and spatial dimensions. We present a time-based plane-sweeping trajectory clustering algorithm to reveal the dynamic evolution of spatial-temporal object clusters and discover common motion patterns of bar-headed geese in the process of migration. Experiments are performed on GPS-based satellite telemetry data from bar-headed geese and results demonstrate our algorithms can correctly discover shared segments of the bar-headed geese migratory pathway. We also present findings on the migratory behavior of bar-headed geese determined from this new analytical approach.

Journal of Information and Computational Science↗

USGS2011

Wild bird migration across the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau: A transmission route for highly pathogenic H5N1

Background Qinghai Lake in central China has been at the center of debate on whether wild birds play a role in circulation of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1. In 2005, an unprecedented epizootic at Qinghai Lake killed more than 6000 migratory birds including over 3000 bar-headed geese ( Anser indicus ). H5N1 subsequently spread to Europe and Africa, and in following years has re-emerged in wild birds along the Central Asia flyway several times. Methodology/Principal Findings To better understand the potential involvement of wild birds in the spread of H5N1, we studied the movements of bar-headed geese marked with GPS satellite transmitters at Qinghai Lake in relation to virus outbreaks and disease risk factors. We discovered a previously undocumented migratory pathway between Qinghai Lake and the Lhasa Valley of Tibet where 93% of the 29 marked geese overwintered. From 2003–2009, sixteen outbreaks in poultry or wild birds were confirmed on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and the majority were located within the migratory pathway of the geese. Spatial and temporal concordance between goose movements and three potential H5N1 virus sources (poultry farms, a captive bar-headed goose facility, and H5N1 outbreak locations) indicated ample opportunities existed for virus spillover and infection of migratory geese on the wintering grounds. Their potential as a vector of H5N1 was supported by rapid migration movements of some geese and genetic relatedness of H5N1 virus isolated from geese in Tibet and Qinghai Lake. Conclusions/Significance This is the first study to compare phylogenetics of the virus with spatial ecology of its host, and the combined results suggest that wild birds play a role in the spread of H5N1 in this region. However, the strength of the evidence would be improved with additional sequences from both poultry and wild birds on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau where H5N1 has a clear stronghold.

Qinghai Lake↗

USGS2011

Spatial distribution and risk factors of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 in China

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 was first encountered in 1996 in Guangdong province (China) and started spreading throughout Asia and the western Palearctic in 2004–2006. Compared to several other countries where the HPAI H5N1 distribution has been studied in some detail, little is known about the environmental correlates of the HPAI H5N1 distribution in China. HPAI H5N1 clinical disease outbreaks, and HPAI virus (HPAIV) H5N1 isolated from active risk-based surveillance sampling of domestic poultry (referred to as HPAIV H5N1 surveillance positives in this manuscript) were modeled separately using seven risk variables: chicken, domestic waterfowl population density, proportion of land covered by rice or surface water, cropping intensity, elevation, and human population density. We used bootstrapped logistic regression and boosted regression trees (BRT) with cross-validation to identify the weight of each variable, to assess the predictive power of the models, and to map the distribution of HPAI H5N1 risk. HPAI H5N1 clinical disease outbreak occurrence in domestic poultry was mainly associated with chicken density, human population density, and elevation. In contrast, HPAIV H5N1 infection identified by risk-based surveillance was associated with domestic waterfowl density, human population density, and the proportion of land covered by surface water. Both models had a high explanatory power (mean AUC ranging from 0.864 to 0.967). The map of HPAIV H5N1 risk distribution based on active surveillance data emphasized areas south of the Yangtze River, while the distribution of reported outbreak risk extended further North, where the density of poultry and humans is higher. We quantified the statistical association between HPAI H5N1 outbreak, HPAIV distribution and post-vaccination levels of seropositivity (percentage of effective post-vaccination seroconversion in vaccinated birds) and found that provinces with either outbreaks or HPAIV H5N1 surveillance positives in 2007–2009 appeared to have had lower antibody response to vaccination. The distribution of HPAI H5N1 risk in China appears more limited geographically than previously assessed, offering prospects for better targeted surveillance and control interventions.

PLoS Pathogens↗

USGS2011

Responses of salt marsh ecosystems to mosquito control management practices along the Atlantic Coast (U.S.A.)

Open marsh water management (OMWM) of salt marshes modifies grid-ditched marshes by creating permanent ponds and radial ditches in the high marsh that reduce mosquito production and enhance fish predation on mosquitoes. It is preferable to using pesticides to control salt marsh mosquito production and is commonly presented as a restoration or habitat enhancement tool for grid-ditched salt marshes. Monitoring of nekton, vegetation, groundwater level, soil salinity, and bird communities before and after OMWM at 11 (six treatment and five reference sites) Atlantic Coast (U.S.A.) salt marshes revealed high variability within and among differing OMWM techniques (ditch-plugging, reengineering of sill ditches, and the creation of ponds and radial ditches). At three marshes, the dominant nekton shifted from fish (primarily Fundulidae species) to shrimp (Palaemonidae species) after manipulations and shrimp density increased at other treatment sites. Vegetation changed at only two sites, one with construction equipment impacts (not desired) and one with a decrease in woody vegetation along existing ditches (desired). One marsh had lower groundwater level and soil salinity, and bird use, although variable, was often unrelated to OMWM manipulations. The potential effects of OMWM manipulations on non-target salt marsh resources need to be carefully considered by resource planners when managing marshes for mosquito control.

Atlantic Coast↗

USGS2011

Flying over an infected landscape: Distribution of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 risk in South Asia and satellite tracking of wild waterfowl

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus persists in Asia, posing a threat to poultry, wild birds, and humans. Previous work in Southeast Asia demonstrated that HPAI H5N1 risk is related to domestic ducks and people. Other studies discussed the role of migratory birds in the long distance spread of HPAI H5N1. However, the interplay between local persistence and long-distance dispersal has never been studied. We expand previous geospatial risk analysis to include South and Southeast Asia, and integrate the analysis with migration data of satellite-tracked wild waterfowl along the Central Asia flyway. We find that the population of domestic duck is the main factor delineating areas at risk of HPAI H5N1 spread in domestic poultry in South Asia, and that other risk factors, such as human population and chicken density, are associated with HPAI H5N1 risk within those areas. We also find that satellite tracked birds (Ruddy Shelduck and two Bar-headed Geese) reveal a direct spatio-temporal link between the HPAI H5N1 hot-spots identified in India and Bangladesh through our risk model, and the wild bird outbreaks in May,June,July 2009 in China(Qinghai Lake), Mongolia, and Russia. This suggests that the continental-scale dynamics of HPAI H5N1 are structured as a number of persistence areas delineated by domestic ducks, connected by rare transmission through migratory waterfowl.

EcoHealth↗

USGS2011

Modelling the distribution of chickens, ducks, and geese in China

Global concerns over the emergence of zoonotic pandemics emphasize the need for high-resolution population distribution mapping and spatial modelling. Ongoing efforts to model disease risk in China have been hindered by a lack of available species level distribution maps for poultry. The goal of this study was to develop 1 km resolution population density models for China's chickens, ducks, and geese. We used an information theoretic approach to predict poultry densities based on statistical relationships between poultry census data and high-resolution agro-ecological predictor variables. Model predictions were validated by comparing goodness of fit measures (root mean square error and correlation coefficient) for observed and predicted values for 1/4 of the sample data which were not used for model training. Final output included mean and coefficient of variation maps for each species. We tested the quality of models produced using three predictor datasets and 4 regional stratification methods. For predictor variables, a combination of traditional predictors for livestock mapping and land use predictors produced the best goodness of fit scores. Comparison of regional stratifications indicated that for chickens and ducks, a stratification based on livestock production systems produced the best results; for geese, an agro-ecological stratification produced best results. However, for all species, each method of regional stratification produced significantly better goodness of fit scores than the global model. Here we provide descriptive methods, analytical comparisons, and model output for China's first high resolution, species level poultry distribution maps. Output will be made available to the scientific and public community for use in a wide range of applications from epidemiological studies to livestock policy and management initiatives.

Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment↗

USGS2011

Modelling the distribution of domestic ducks in Monsoon Asia

Domestic ducks are considered to be an important reservoir of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), as shown by a number of geospatial studies in which they have been identified as a significant risk factor associated with disease presence. Despite their importance in HPAI epidemiology, their large-scale distribution in Monsoon Asia is poorly understood. In this study, we created a spatial database of domestic duck census data in Asia and used it to train statistical distribution models for domestic duck distributions at a spatial resolution of 1 km. The method was based on a modelling framework used by the Food and Agriculture Organisation to produce the Gridded Livestock of the World (GLW) database, and relies on stratified regression models between domestic duck densities and a set of agro-ecological explanatory variables. We evaluated different ways of stratifying the analysis and of combining the prediction to optimize the goodness of fit of the predictions. We found that domestic duck density could be predicted with reasonable accuracy (mean RMSE and correlation coefficient between log-transformed observed and predicted densities being 0.58 and 0.80, respectively), using a stratification based on livestock production systems. We tested the use of artificially degraded data on duck distributions in Thailand and Vietnam as training data, and compared the modelled outputs with the original high-resolution data. This showed, for these two countries at least, that these approaches could be used to accurately disaggregate provincial level (administrative level 1) statistical data to provide high resolution model distributions.

Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment↗

USGS2011

Tracking the autumn migration of the bar-headed goose ( Anser indicus ) with satellite telemetry and relationship to environmental conditions

The autumn migration routes of bar-headed geese captured before the 2008 breeding season at Qinghai Lake, China, were documented using satellite tracking data. To assess how the migration strategies of bar-headed geese are influenced by environmental conditions, the relationship between migratory routes, temperatures, and vegetation coverage at stopovers sites estimated with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were analyzed. Our results showed that there were four typical migration routes in autumn with variation in timing among individuals in start and end times and in total migration and stopover duration. The observed variation may be related to habitat type and other environmental conditions along the routes. On average, these birds traveled about 1300 to 1500 km, refueled at three to six stopover sites and migrated for 73 to 83 days. The majority of the habitat types at stopover sites were lake, marsh, and shoal wetlands, with use of some mountainous regions, and farmland areas.

International Journal of Zoology↗

USGS2011

Migration strategies of Swan Geese Anser cygnoides from northeast Mongolia

In 2006–2008, 25 Swan Geese Anser cygnoides were marked with solar-powered GPS satellite transmitters in northeast Mongolia to examine the timing and pathways of their migration. Most geese began their autumn migration in August, flying southeast toward a staging area at the Yalu River Estuary on the China-North Korea border. After staging for several weeks, the Swan Geese continued to their wintering grounds at wetlands along the Yangtze River Basin of eastern China in December. Spring migration commenced in late February, and the birds following either a same-route or loop migration to arrive at the breeding grounds in mid April. Swan Geese used a larger number of staging areas for a longer duration when they were north of 42°N latitude; they seemed to avoid staging for extended periods in the highly urbanised areas of eastern China. Further research should examine threats and disturbances to the geese in relation to human population growth and increasing urbanisation.

Wildfowl↗

USGS2010

Movement patterns of Bar-headed Geese Anser indicus during breeding and post-breeding periods at Qinghai Lake, China

The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreak at Qinghai Lake, China, in 2005 caused the death of over 6,000 migratory birds, half of which were Bar-headed Geese Anser indicus . Understanding the movements of this species may inform monitoring of outbreak risks for HPAI viruses; thus, we investigated the movement patterns of 29 Bar-headed Geese at Qinghai Lake, China during 2007 and 2008 by using high resolution GPS satellite telemetry. We described the movements and distribution of marked Bar-headed Geese during the pre-nesting, nesting, and moulting periods. Of 21 Bar-headed Geese with complete transmission records, 3 moved to other areas during the nesting period: 2 to Jianghe wetland (50 km northwest of Qinghai Lake) and 1 to Cuolongka Lake (220 km northwest of Qinghai Lake) during the nesting period. We identified nesting attempts of 7 of the marked geese at Qinghai Lake. Four completed successful nesting attempts according to our rules of judgment for the breeding status, and 2 geese lost broods soon after hatching (hereafter referred to as unsuccessful breeders). Of 18 geese present at Qinghai Lake during the nesting period, 9 (6 non-breeders, 2 successful breeders and 1 unsuccessful breeder) remained at Qinghai Lake during the moulting period; and 9 (5 non-breeders, 4 unsuccessful breeders) left Qinghai Lake for moulting. Kuhai Lake, Donggeicuona Lake, Alake Lake, Zhaling-Eling Lake area and Huangheyuan wetland area were used as moulting sites. Geese that moulted at Qinghai Lake, Cuolongka Lake, Kuhai Lake, Donggeicuona Lake and Alake Lake also moved to Zhaling-Eling Lake area or Huangheyuan wetland area and stayed there for several days prior to autumn migration. Mean home range and core area estimates did not differ significantly by sex, year and between breeders and non-breeders.

Qinghai Lake↗

USGS2010

Victims and vectors: highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 and the ecology of wild birds

The emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses has raised concerns about the role of wild birds in the spread and persistence of the disease. In 2005, an outbreak of the highly pathogenic subtype H5N1 killed more than 6,000 wild waterbirds at Qinghai Lake, China. Outbreaks have continued to periodically occur in wild birds at Qinghai Lake and elsewhere in Central China and Mongolia. This region has few poultry but is a major migration and breeding area for waterbirds in the Central Asian Flyway, although relatively little is known about migratory movements of different species and connectivity of their wetland habitats. The scientific debate has focused on the role of waterbirds in the epidemiology, maintenance and spread of HPAI H5N1: to what extent are they victims affected by the disease, or vectors that have a role in disease transmission? In this review, we summarise the current knowledge of wild bird involvement in the ecology of HPAI H5N1. Specifically, we present details on: (1) origin of HPAI H5N1; (2) waterbirds as LPAI reservoirs and evolution into HPAI; (3) the role of waterbirds in virus spread and persistence; (4) key biogeographic regions of outbreak; and (5) applying an ecological research perspective to studying AIVs in wild waterbirds and their ecosystems.

Avian Biology Research↗

USGS2010

Potential spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 by wildfowl: dispersal ranges and rates determined from large-scale satellite telemetry

1. Migratory birds are major candidates for long-distance dispersal of zoonotic pathogens. In recent years, wildfowl have been suspected of contributing to the rapid geographic spread of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus. Experimental infection studies reveal that some wild ducks, geese and swans shed this virus asymptomatically and hence have the potential to spread it as they move. 2. We evaluate the dispersive potential of HPAI H5N1 viruses by wildfowl through an analysis of the movement range and movement rate of birds monitored by satellite telemetry in relation to the apparent asymptomatic infection duration (AID) measured in experimental studies. We analysed the first large-scale data set of wildfowl movements, including 228 birds from 19 species monitored by satellite telemetry in 2006–2009, over HPAI H5N1 affected regions of Asia, Europe and Africa. 3. Our results indicate that individual migratory wildfowl have the potential to disperse HPAI H5N1 over extensive distances, being able to perform movements of up to 2900 km within timeframes compatible with the duration of asymptomatic infection. 4. However, the likelihood of such virus dispersal over long distances by individual wildfowl is low: we estimate that for an individual migratory bird there are, on average, only 5–15 days per year when infection could result in the dispersal of HPAI H5N1 virus over 500 km. 5. Staging at stopover sites during migration is typically longer than the period of infection and viral shedding, preventing birds from dispersing a virus over several consecutive but interrupted long-distance movements. Intercontinental virus dispersion would therefore probably require relay transmission between a series of successively infected migratory birds. 6. Synthesis and applications . Our results provide a detailed quantitative assessment of the dispersive potential of HPAI H5N1 virus by selected migratory birds. Such dispersive potential rests on the assumption that free-living wildfowl will respond analogously to captive, experimentally-infected birds, and that asymptomatic infection will not alter their movement abilities. Our approach of combining experimental exposure data and telemetry information provides an analytical framework for quantifying the risk of spread of avian-borne diseases.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2010

Understanding the potential dispersal of HPAI H5N1 virus by migratory wildfowl

We analysed wildfowl movements between 2006-2009, including 228 birds from 19 species, part of a larger international programme (see Figure 1) coordinated by the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations aimed at understanding if there are temporal or spatial relationships between HPAI H5N1 outbreaks and movements of migratory wildfowl, the first large scale data set available for such an analysis.

Argos Forum↗

USGS2009

Migration of whooper swans and outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus in Eastern Asia

Evaluating the potential involvement of wild avifauna in the emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 (hereafter H5N1) requires detailed analyses of temporal and spatial relationships between wild bird movements and disease emergence. The death of wild swans (Cygnus spp.) has been the first indicator of the presence of H5N1 in various Asian and European countries; however their role in the geographic spread of the disease remains poorly understood. We marked 10 whooper swans (Cygnus cygnus) with GPS transmitters in northeastern Mongolia during autumn 2006 and tracked their migratory movements in relation to H5N1 outbreaks. The prevalence of H5N1 outbreaks among poultry in eastern Asia during 2003-2007 peaked during winter, concurrent with whooper swan movements into regions of high poultry density. However outbreaks involving poultry were detected year round, indicating disease perpetuation independent of migratory waterbird presence. In contrast, H5N1 outbreaks involving whooper swans, as well as other migratory waterbirds that succumbed to the disease in eastern Asia, tended to occur during seasons (late spring and summer) and in habitats (areas of natural vegetation) where their potential for contact with poultry is very low to nonexistent. Given what is known about the susceptibility of swans to H5N1, and on the basis of the chronology and rates of whooper swan migration movements, we conclude that although there is broad spatial overlap between whooper swan distributions and H5N1 outbreak locations in eastern Asia, the likelihood of direct transmission between these groups is extremely low. Thus, our data support the hypothesis that swans are best viewed as sentinel species, and moreover, that in eastern Asia, it is most likely that their infections occurred through contact with asymptomatic migratory hosts (e.g., wild ducks) at or near their breeding grounds.

PLoS ONE↗