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Diane L. Larson

Publications and source records attributed to Diane L. Larson.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Bee habitat, but not bee community structure, varies across grassland management in four national parks in the Mid-Atlantic, USA

National parks in the U.S. play a large role in providing habitat for native pollinators. In parks that are established to preserve cultural landscapes, park managers recognize an opportunity to improve pollinator habitat while maintaining historically accurate conditions. In this study we document floral resources and native bees within managed park grasslands, with the goal of providing managers information to help them maximize pollinator habitat while meeting other management objectives. The study was performed on 37 grassland properties in the mid-Atlantic region of the eastern U.S., distributed across four national parks; each property was managed with one of three management types: cool-season hayed, cool-season pasture, or warm-season meadows managed with multiple approaches. We surveyed bees and open flowers on 50-m transects twice each year in 2021 and 2022. Repeated measures ANOVA models revealed mean bee abundance, richness, evenness, and diversity did not vary among sites or management types. This finding was further supported by a principal coordinates analysis that showed bee community composition was similar across management types. Nonetheless, we found evidence to indicate the three management types did not produce equivalent habitat for bees. Species accumulation curves showed that the effective number of flower species was consistently lower in cool-season pastures, relative to the other two management types. Furthermore, we detected positive correlations between bee and flower diversity metrics in one of the two years, suggesting that floral metrics can influence bee communities, at least under certain conditions. Collectively, our study suggests that cool-season fields that are hayed and warm-season meadows have higher floral diversity than cool-season pastures within national parks of the mid-Atlantic region, and this higher diversity of forbs has the potential to benefit native bee diversity.

Maryland, Virginia

Fewer bowl traps and more hand netting can increase effective number of bee species and reduce excessive captures

Reports increasingly point to substantial declines in wild bee abundance and diversity, yet there is uncertainty about how best to measure these attributes in wild bee populations. Two commonly used methods are passive trapping with bee bowls or active netting of bees on flowers, but each of these has drawbacks. Comparing the outcomes of the two methods is complicated by their uncomparable units of effort. The abundance distribution of bee species is also typically highly skewed, making it difficult to accurately assess diversity when rarer species are unlikely to be caught. The effective number of species, or Hill numbers, provides a way forward by basing the response metric on the number of equally abundant species. Our goal is to compare the effective number of bee species captured between hand netting and bowl trapping in wheatgrass prairie in South Dakota and tallgrass prairie in Minnesota, USA. Species overlap between the two methods ranged from ~40% to ~60%. Emphasis placed on rare species was important, so that 95% confidence limits overlapped between the two methods for species richness but netting exceeded trapping for Shannon's and Simpson's diversities. Netting always captured more bee species with fewer bee individuals than trapping. In most cases, the number of bees captured in bowl traps indicated substantial over-sampling, with little increase in bee species detected. Correlations between bee and floral abundance, richness, and diversity differed between netted and trapped samples. We conclude that netting and trapping together produce a more complete account of species richness, but shifting sampling emphasis from trapping to netting will result in fewer bees, but more bee species captured. Due to the different relationships between bee and floral diversities that depended on sampling method, it is unwise to compare habitat associations determined by netting with those determined by trapping.

Ecology and Evolution

Fire regime shapes butterfly communities through changes in nectar resources in an Australian tropical savanna

Fire-dependent savanna provides key habitat for butterflies globally, but we know little about how fire regimes, including fire frequency and season, affect them. These impacts are likely to be primarily indirect, through changes in overall habitat structure, the abundance of larval host plants, and/or the provision of nectar resources for adults. We examined the relationships among fire regime, butterfly abundance and diversity, and vegetation structure and floral resources within a long-term fire experiment near Darwin in the Australian monsoon tropics. We surveyed butterflies and floral resources throughout the 2019–2020 wet season in three replicate plots of each of six experimental treatments that had been operating for 15 years. All plots subject to fire had been burned in the previous dry season. We observed 24 butterfly species and 280 individuals representing all five butterfly families found in Northern Australia. Butterfly abundance was highest under early dry-season (June) fire regimes (mean = 11.9 individuals per plot survey) compared with a late dry-season (October) regime (mean = 6.7) and in the long-term absence of fire (mean = 5.3), and this was correlated with the abundance of floral resources. The distribution of butterflies was also highly associated with floral resources within plots regardless of fire treatment. Butterfly species richness was significantly higher in early dry-season (mean = 6.8) compared with unburned (mean = 3.3) plots but did not differ between early and late dry-season (mean = 4.7) plots. Butterfly and floral diversity were similar across all early dry-season fire treatments regardless of whether they had been burned every 1, 2, 3, or 5 years. Our finding that early dry-season burning promotes butterfly diversity and abundance by increasing the supply of nectar resources has important implications for biodiversity management more broadly, given that nectar is a critical resource for many animal taxa.

Territory Wildlife Park

Considering pollinators' ecosystem services in the remediation and restoration of contaminated lands: Overview of research and its gaps

The concept of ecosystem services provides a useful framework for understanding how people are affected by changes to the natural environment, such as when a contaminant is introduced (e.g., oil spills, hazardous substance releases) or, conversely, when contaminated lands are remediated and restored. Pollination is one example of an important ecosystem service; pollinators play a critical role in any functioning terrestrial ecosystem. Other studies have suggested that consideration of pollinators' ecosystem services could lead to better remediation and restoration outcomes. However, the associated relationships can be complex, and evaluation requires synthesis from numerous disciplines. In this article, we discuss the possibilities for considering pollinators and their ecosystem services when planning remediation and restoration of contaminated lands. To inform the discussion, we introduce a general conceptual model of how pollinators and the ecosystem services associated with them could be affected by contamination in the environment. We review the literature on the conceptual model components, including contaminant effects on pollinators and the direct and indirect ecosystem services provided by pollinators, and identify information gaps. Though increased public interest in pollinators likely reflects increasing recognition of their role in providing many important ecosystem services, our review indicates that many gaps in understanding—about relevant natural and social systems—currently impede the rigorous quantification and evaluation of pollinators' ecosystem services required for many applications, such as in the context of natural resource damage assessment. Notable gaps include information on non-honeybee pollinators and on ecosystem services beyond those benefitting the agricultural sector. We then discuss potential research priorities and implications for practitioners. Focused research attention on the areas highlighted in this review holds promise for increasing the possibilities for considering pollinators' ecosystem services in the remediation and restoration of contaminated lands.

Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management

Divergent responses of butterflies and bees to burning and grazing management in tallgrass prairies

Butterflies and bees contribute significantly to grassland biodiversity and play important roles as pollinators and herbivores. Grassland conservation and management must be seen through the lens of insect conservation and management if these species are to thrive. In North America, grasslands are a product of climate and natural disturbances such as fire and grazing. These natural disturbances have changed considerably since European colonization and subsequent landscape fragmentation. The aim of this study was to better understand the impacts of fire and grazing management on butterfly and bee communities in tallgrass prairie, enabling land managers and conservationists to better protect and manage remnant prairie. We examined butterfly and bee abundance, species richness, and diversity in Minnesota tallgrass prairies managed by grazing or fire. In 2016 and 2017, we surveyed butterflies, bees, vegetation, and surrounding land use at 20 remnant prairies (10 burned and 10 grazed) with known management histories. Butterfly and bee abundance at our study sites were significantly negatively correlated. Butterfly abundance, but not species richness, was higher in burned than grazed prairies, and prairie-associated grass-feeding butterflies were more abundant at sites with higher plant species richness. Bee abundance was unrelated to management type but was higher at sites with sandier soils; bee species richness was positively associated with forb frequency. These findings highlight the challenges of designing management plans tailored to wide groups of pollinators and the potential pitfalls of using one group of pollinators as indicators for another. They also point to the importance of a mosaic of management practices across the prairie landscape.

Minnesota

Potential effects of energy development on environmental resources of the Williston Basin in Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota—Species of conservation concern

The ecosystems of the Williston Basin provide direct and indirect benefits to society. These benefits include carbon sequestration, flood control, nutrient rich soils for agricultural productivity, and habitat for wildlife. This chapter’s main focus is on the effects of energy development on species that occupy the ecosystems in the Williston Basin. We compiled a list of documented species of conservation concern that are of most interest to Federal regulators and resource managers. Species of concern were either listed as endangered or threatened under the Endangered Species Act or listed by States as species of concern in Natural Heritage Program checklists or State Wildlife Action Plans. All told, we determined that 357 species of concern likely occupy the Williston Basin. These species represented seven different taxonomic groups: plants (native and nonnative), terrestrial invertebrates, birds, mammals, reptiles and amphibians, and fish and mussels. We reviewed the existing scientific information pertaining to potential effects of energy development on these taxonomic groups. Currently, little is known about the abundance and distribution of many of these species. But some information exists that may be useful in predicting the potential effects of energy development on certain taxonomic groups. Most of this information has been developed through scientific research focused on effects to mammal and bird populations. Effects to other taxonomic groups seems to be understudied. In general, it seems that disturbances and modifications associated with development have the potential to negatively affect a wide range of species; however, many studies produce uncertain results because they are not designed to compare populations before and after energy development takes place. Most of these studies also do not monitor resources over multiple years and thus cannot detect population trends. Likewise, there are few examples of landscape-scale assessments of the cumulative effects of energy development that could be used for species or habitat management purposes. We suggest that more research needs to be completed to measure potential effects to a broad range of species in multiple taxonomic groups. This may require also developing some understanding about the basic ecology of many of the species covered in this report. In concert with this more basic research, we also suggest that more comprehensive assessments of potential negative cumulative effects across the Williston Basin should be developed in an effort to guide more strategic management of biological resources.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota

Belowground mutualisms to support prairie reconstruction—Improving prairie habitat using mycorrhizal inoculum

As a first step toward understanding the feasibility of using arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) in reconstruction practice, we addressed four objectives: (1) compare root-associated AMF communities of plants between high-quality remnant prairies and reconstructed prairies, (2) compare root-associated AMF communities between plant species that declined in reconstructions and species that were thriving, (3) compare AMF communities collected from roots of plants in geographically separate parts of Minnesota and Iowa, and (4) assess the relationship between AMF communities and soil abiotic factors. We collected soil and root samples in 8 prairies reconstructed in 2005 (and monitored through 2015) and 6 remnant prairies, and the samples were separated into 6 geographically determined clusters, each containing 1–2 reconstructions and 1 remnant. Sequencing was completed on 1,188 deoxyribonucleic acid extracts from individual plant root samples, and fungal sequences were clustered to operational taxonomic units at 97-percent identity. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling was used to visualize differences in species composition of AMF communities among plant species and field sites. Permutational analysis of variance was completed to test for differences in AMF community composition between the 2 types of sites (remnants and reconstructions), among plant species, and among the 6 site clusters. AMF communities differed between remnant and reconstructed prairies, with one exception, and AMF associated with individual plant species also tended to differ, depending on whether the plant species’ roots were collected from remnant or reconstructed prairie. On the other hand, we did not determine that, as a group, species in decline in the reconstructions we had monitored were more likely to harbor different AMF communities compared to species not in decline in the reconstructions. Significant interactions between site type and clusters indicate geographic variation in AMF communities. Total carbon and nitrogen, and organic matter, were higher in remnant soils, whereas phosphorus, which at high concentrations reduces the value of AMF to plants, was much higher in soils collected from reconstructions.

Iowa, Minnesota

Variation in foraging patterns as reflected by floral resources used by male vs female bees of selected species at Badlands National Park, SD

Female and male bees forage for different reasons: females provision nests with pollen appropriate for larval development and consume nectar for energy while males need only fuel their own energetic requirements. The expectation, therefore, is that females should visit fewer floral resource species than males, due to females’ focus on host plant species and their tie to the nest location. We used pollen collected from bees’ bodies and the flowers they were collected on to infer floral resource use in 2010-2012 at Badlands National Park, SD, USA. We collected bees on 24 1-ha plots centered on particular plant species. We compared number of floral species and families (1) associated with individual female and male bees (via generalized linear mixed models) and (2) accumulated by each sex (using rarefaction); and (3) effect of variation between sexes in plant-bee interactions via modularity analyses. Analyses were restricted to bee species with > 5 individuals per sex. Contrary to expectation, female and male bees differed infrequently in the number of floral resources they had visited, both on single foraging bouts and collectively when accumulated across all males and females of a species. When males and females did differ, males visited fewer floral species than females. Generalist and specialist bee species did not differ markedly in floral resource use by females and males. When separated by sex, seven of eleven species occupied different modules than they did when analyzed as a species; most of the bee species were connectors, thus important for stability of the network during perturbations.

South Dakota

Restoration for resilience: The role of plant-microbial interactions and seed provenance in ecological restoration

With global efforts to restore grassland ecosystems, researchers and land management practitioners are working to reconstruct habitat that will persist and withstand stresses associated with climate change. Part of these efforts involve movement of plant material potentially adapted to future climate conditions from native habitat or seed production locations to a new restoration site. Restoration practice often follows this plant-centered, top-down approach. However, we suggest that restoration of belowground interactions, namely between plants and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi or rhizobia, is important for restoring resilient grasslands. In this synthesis we highlight these interactions and offer insight into how their restoration might be included in current grassland restoration practice. Ultimately, restoration of belowground interactions may contribute to grassland habitat that can withstand and respond to future climate uncertainties.

Natural Areas Journal

Balancing the need for seed against invasive species risks in prairie habitat restorations

Adequate diversity and abundance of native seed for large-scale grassland restorations often require commercially produced seed from distant sources. However, as sourcing distance increases, the likelihood of inadvertent introduction of multiple novel, non-native weed species as seed contaminants also increases. We created a model to determine an “optimal maximum distance” that would maximize availability of native prairie seed from commercial sources while minimizing the risk of novel invasive weeds via contamination. The model focused on the central portion of the Level II temperate prairie ecoregion in the Midwest US. The median optimal maximum distance from which to source seed was 272 km (169 miles). In addition, we weighted the model to address potential concerns from restoration practitioners: 1. sourcing seed via a facilitated migration strategy (i.e., direct movement of species from areas south of a given restoration site to assist species’ range expansion) to account for warming due to climate change; and 2. emphasizing non-native, exotic species with a federal mandate to control. Weighting the model for climate change increased the median optimal maximum distance to 398 km (247 miles), but this was not statistically different from the distance calculated without taking sourcing for climate adaptation into account. Weighting the model for federally mandated exotic species increased the median optimal maximum distance only slightly to 293 km (182 miles), so practitioners may not need to adjust their sourcing strategy, compared to the original model. This decision framework highlights some potential inadvertent consequences from species translocations and provides insight on how to balance needs for prairie seed against those risks.

Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Manitoba, Minnesota, Misso

Coflowering invasive plants and a congener have neutral effects on fitness components of a rare endemic plant

Network analyses rarely include fitness components, such as germination, to tie invasive plants to population-level effects on the natives. We address this limitation in a previously studied network of flower visitors around a suite of native and invasive plants that includes an endemic plant at Badlands National Park, South Dakota, USA. Eriogonum visheri coflowers with two abundant invasive plants, Salsola tragus and Melilotus officinalis , as well as a common congener, E. pauciflorum . Network analyses had suggested strong linkages between E. visheri and S. tragus and E. pauciflorum , with a weaker link to M. officinalis . We measured visitation, pollen deposited on stigmas, achene weight and germination over three field seasons (two for germination) in four populations (two in the final season) of E. visheri and applied in situ pollen treatments to E. visheri , adding pollen from other flowers on the same plant; flowers on other E. visheri plants; S. tragus, M. officinalis , or E. pauciflorum ; open pollination; or excluding pollinators. Insect visitation to E. visheri was not affected by floral abundance of any of the focal species. Most visitors were halictid bees; one of these ( Lasioglossum packeri ) was the only identified species to visit E. visheri all three years. Ninety-seven percent of pollen on collected E. visheri stigmas was conspecific, but 22% of flowers had >1 grain of E. pauciflorum pollen on stigmas and 7% had >1 grain of S. tragus pollen; <1% of flowers had M. officinalis pollen on stigmas. None of the pollen treatments produced significant differences in weight or germination of E. visheri achenes. We conclude that, in contrast to the results of the network analysis, neither of the invasive species poses a threat, via heterospecific pollen deposition, to pollination of the endemic E. visheri , and that its congener provides alternative pollen resources to its pollinators.

South Dakota

Management of remnant tallgrass prairie by grazing or fire: Effects on plant communities and soil properties

Tallgrass prairie is a disturbance‐dependent ecosystem that has suffered steep declines in the midwestern United States. The necessity of disturbance, typically fire or grazing, presents challenges to managers who must apply them on increasingly small and fragmented parcels. The goal of this study was to compare effects of management using cattle grazing or fire on vegetation and soil characteristics to aid managers in making decisions regarding the kind of disturbance to apply. We selected 73 sites, of which 27 were managed solely by cattle grazing and 46 solely by fire, for at least 11 yr leading up to the study. We stratified the sites by prairie type (dry, mesic, and wet) and sampled frequency of plant species on randomly placed transects, supplemented with botanist‐directed walks, and collected and composited five soil cores on a randomly selected transect within each prairie type at each site. We calculated rarefied richness and Shannon evenness from the transect data and mean coefficient of conservatism (CofC) from the total list of species. Soil samples were analyzed for texture, bulk density, total N and C, and potential net N nitrification and mineralization. A nonmetric multidimensional scaling analysis of the plant community data revealed differences in species associated with mesic and wet prairies, but no separation by management type. Similarly, none of the vegetation variables we calculated varied by management type, as determined by mixed‐effects models, but soil bulk density was 17.5% higher and total N was 22% higher on grazed sites than burned sites. Sites burned more recently had higher species richness and mean CofC, but fire was not associated with any soil variables. Sites grazed more recently had higher bulk density, total N and C, and faster N cycling rates. Overall, 28% of plant species were found exclusively in one management type or the other, but these species did not vary in mean CofC. We conclude that, at the levels of burning and grazing intensity we studied, both management approaches produce similar C storage and vegetation responses. To maintain maximum diversity across the landscape, however, both approaches are necessary.

Minnesota

Managing invasive plants on Great Plains grasslands: A discussion of current challenges

The Great Plains of North America encompass approximately 1,300,000 km 2 of land from Texas to Saskatchewan. The integrity of these lands is under continual assault by long-established and newly-arrived invasive plant species, which can threaten native species and diminish land values and ecological goods and services by degrading desired grassland resources. The Great Plains are a mixture of privately and publicly owned lands, which leads to a patchwork of varying management goals and strategies for controlling invasive plants. Continually updated knowledge is required for efficient and effective management of threats posed by changing environments and invasive plants. Here we discuss current challenges, contemporary management strategies, and management tools and their integration, in hopes of presenting a knowledge resource for new and experienced land managers and others involved in making decisions regarding invasive plant management in the Great Plains.

Great Plains

Toward improving pollinator habitat: Reconstructing prairies with high forb diversity

Reconstructed prairies can provide habitat for pollinating insects, an important ecosystem service. To optimize reconstructions for pollinators, goals may include enhancing flowering plant cover and richness and increasing bloom availability early and late in the growing season. Resistance to invasive exotic species must also be a goal in any reconstruction, but it is unclear how increasing forb richness and dominance may affect susceptibility to invasion. We compared planted forb richness and cover, cover of planted grasses, and persistence of exotic species 10 y post-planting of reconstructions with 58 species (extra-high richness), 34 species (high), 20 species (medium), and 10 species (low) planted at the same time in the same fields, and using the same methods and overall seeding rate at Neal Smith National Wildlife Refuge in Iowa, USA. Planted forb richness and cover were higher and planted warm-season, but not cool-season, grass cover was lower in the extra-high richness plots. Mean Coefficient of Conservatism was higher and there was less cover of exotic forbs in the extra-high richness plots. Cover of exotic cool-season grasses was greater in the extra-high richness plots than in the lower-richness plots and this trend was still increasing at the last sample date. Our results are encouraging in that we increased cover of pollinator-friendly habitat, but invasive grasses are a concern as they may reduce forb cover and opportunities for ground-nesting bees in the long term.

Iowa

Adult monarch (Danaus plexippus) abundance is higher in burned sites than in grazed sites

Much of the remaining suitable habitat for monarchs (Danaus plexippus) in Minnesota is found in tallgrass prairies. We studied the association of adult monarch abundance with use of fire or grazing to manage prairies. Sites (n=20) ranged in size from 1 to 145 hectares and included land owned and managed by the Minnesota DNR, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, The Nature Conservancy, and private landowners. We measured Asclepias spp. (milkweeds, monarch host plants) and forb frequency in 0.5 x 2-m plots located along randomly-placed transects that were stratified to sample wet, mesic, and dry prairie types at each site. Adult butterfly surveys took place three times at each site during the summers of 2016 and 2017, using a standardized Pollard Walk (400 meters). Data were analyzed using mixed effects models. Monarchs were more abundant at sites managed with prescribed fire than with grazing. We found no difference in milkweed and forb frequency between burned and grazed prairies. There was no relationship between monarch abundance and the other predictor variables tested: milkweed frequency, site area, forb frequency, and percent prairie in a 1.5 km buffer area surrounding each site. Monarch abundance was lowest at grazed sites with high stocking rates. Our findings suggest that the use of burning or grazing for prairie management is not associated with milkweed or forb frequency, at least for sites that have not been burned in several years. They also suggest that heavy grazing may have negative impacts on monarchs.

Minnesota

Looking to the Future: Key points for sustainable management of Northern Great Plains grasslands

The grasslands of the northern Great Plains region of North America are considered endangered ecosystems and priority conservation areas yet have great ecological and economic importance. Grasslands in the northern Great Plains (referred to as NGP from this point) are no longer self-regulating adaptive systems. The challenges to these grasslands are widespread and serious (e.g., climate change, invasive species, fragmentation, altered disturbance regimes, and anthropogenic chemical loads). Because the challenges facing the region are dynamic, complex, and persistent, a paradigm shift in how we approach restoration and management of the grasslands in the northern Great Plains is imperative. The goal of this paper is to highlight 4 key points for land managers and restoration practitioners to consider when planning management or restoration actions. First, we discuss the appropriateness of using historical fidelity as a restoration or management target because of changing climate, widespread pervasiveness of invasive species, the high level of fragmentation, and altered disturbance regimes. Second, we highlight ecosystem resilience and long-term population persistence as alternative targets. Third, because the NGP is so heavily impacted with anthropogenic chemical loading, we discuss the risks of ecological traps and extinction debt. Finally, we highlight the importance of using adaptive management and having patience during restoration and management. Consideration of these 4 points will help management and restoration of grasslands move toward a more successful and sustainable future. Although we specifically focus on the northern Great Plains of North America, these same issues and considerations apply to grasslands globally as well as many other ecosystems.

Restoration Ecology

Improving ecological restoration to curb biotic invasion - A practical guide

Common practices for invasive species control and management include physical, chemical, and biological approaches. The first two approaches have clear limitations and may lead to unintended (negative) consequences, unless carefully planned and implemented. For example, physical removal rarely completely eradicates the targeted invasive species and can cause disturbances that facilitate new invasions by nonnative species from nearby habitats. Chemical treatments can harm native, and especially rare, species through unanticipated side effects. Biological methods may be classified as biocontrol and the ecological approach. Similar to physical and chemical methods, biocontrol also has limitations and sometimes leads to unintended consequences. Therefore, a relatively safer and more practical choice may be the ecological approach, which has two major components: (1) restoration of native species and (2) biomass manipulation of the restored community, such as selective grazing or prescribed burning (to achieve and maintain viable population sizes). Restoration requires well-planned and implemented planting designs that consider alpha-, beta-, and gamma-diversity and the abundance of native and invasive component species at local, landscape, and regional levels. Given the extensive destruction or degradation of natural habitats around the world, restoration could be most effective for enhancing ecosystem resilience and resistance to biotic invasions. At the same time, ecosystems in human-dominated landscapes, especially those newly restored, require close monitoring and careful intervention (e.g., through biomass manipulation), especially when successional trajectories are not moving as intended. Biomass management frequently uses prescribed burning, grazing, harvesting, and thinning to maintain overall ecosystem health and sustainability. Thus, the resulting optimal, balanced, and relatively stable ecological conditions could more effectively limit the spread and establishment of invasive species. Here we review the literature (especially within the last decade) on ecological approaches that involve biodiversity, biomass, and productivity, three key community/ecosystem variables that reciprocally influence one another. We focus on the common and most feasible ecological practices that can aid in resisting new invasions and/or suppressing the dominance of existing invasive species. We contend that, because of the strong influences from neighboring areas (i.e., as exotic species pools), local restoration and management efforts in the future need to consider the regional context and projected climate changes.

Invasive Plant Science and Management

Prairie reconstruction unpredictability and complexity: What is the rate of reconstruction failures?

The outcomes of prairie reconstructions are subject to both unpredictability and complexity. Prairie, tallgrass, and mixed grass reconstruction is defined as the planting of a native herbaceous seed mixture composed of multiple prairie species (10 or more) in an area where the land has been heavily cultivated or anthropogenically disturbed. Because of the unpredictability and complexity inherent in reconstructions, some outcomes end up being failures dominated by exotic species. We propose that these failures follow a fat-tailed distribution as found in other complex systems. Fat-tailed distributions follow the Pareto principle, where 80% of the time reconstructions work as expected but 20% of the time they are surprising and far from the typical response. Therefore, we suggest managers be informed that reconstruction failures follow fat-tailed distributions as opposed to assuming reconstructions are simple and predictable with few failures. Once managers realize failures are inherent in reconstructions, resources can be allocated to more effective methods of dealing with failures rather than working to perfect the predictability of reconstructions. We suggest implementing adaptive management, especially where unpredictability is high, as a way to learn from failures. Combining learning from adaptive management with a reconstruction design process, in which goals and constraints are iteratively adjusted, can be a way to deal with failures and develop better outcomes.

Ecological Restoration