Geology topics

Diane Borggaard

Publications and source records attributed to Diane Borggaard.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

Update to a management-focused population viability analysis for North Atlantic right whales

We provide an update to the recently published population viability analysis for North Atlantic right whales ( Eubalaena glacialis ). The update includes improvements to the reproduction modeling and also shares additional context given evidence of reduced mortality indicated by recent population monitoring. Projections from the analysis are used to quantify simulated population sizes across 100 years and resulting quasi-extinction probabilities (falling below 50 mature females that have proven ability to reproduce) to compare hypothetical scenarios related to management of threats and changing environmental conditions. Under a status quo scenario reflecting conditions of 2019, prior to the enactment of new regulations by the U.S. and Canada, the North Atlantic right whale population would be expected to continue to fall, with a median decline of 88 percent (95% projection interval, –98 percent to –45 percent change) and a probability of falling below 50 proven females (i.e., quasi-extinction) of 0.988 at 100 years. In hypothetical scenarios that fully remove each of the three primary threats to right whales one at a time, removal of the entanglement threat alone reduces the probability of falling below 50 proven females in 100 years to 0.070; removal of the vessel strike threat alone reduces it to 0.522; and a return to historical prey abundance patterns (pre-2010), but with both human-related threats still in place, reduces it to 0.524. Although additional baseline scenarios were explored to examine the potential effects of recent regulations, we found that the most up-to-date mortality rates (2020–2022) are similar to those simulated under a 70% reduction in severe entanglement injury compared to rates estimated during 2013–2019. If management measures implemented in the U.S. and Canada continue to reduce mortality, the estimated probability of falling below 50 proven females in 100 years is 0.234. Our model continues to provide a tool for assessing North Atlantic right whale recovery.

NOAA Technical Memorandum↗

USGS2020

North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis) scenario planning summary report

Scenario planning provides a structured framework that can be used in strategic planning to help manage risk and prioritize actions (Schwartz 1996; Peterson et al. 2003). By providing a mechanism to communicate about complex situations, scenario planning encourages “out-of-the-box” thinking to help groups assess the impacts of plausible future scenarios on a target or resource. The outcomes from scenario planning can be used to improve management decisions, highlight data gaps, and/or identify future science priorities (Star et al. 2015; Borggaard et al. 2019). The application of scenario planning by resource management organizations (e.g., Borggaard et al. 2019; Runyon et al. 2020; Star et al. 2015) and the urgency surrounding the recovery of the critically endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis), led to a 2018 NOAA Fisheries scenario planning initiative for the species. In addition to complementing the many management and conservation efforts already underway, this initiative was designed to address the uncertainties around future anthropogenic and environmental changes and how these uncertainties may impact species recovery. We used a scenario planning framework to explore plausible future conditions for North Atlantic right whales and to develop possible options to address those conditions and improve recovery. Specific objectives were to: 1) better understand the challenges of right whale management in a changing climate; 2) identify potential research activities and recovery needs across the species’ range; 3) increase coordination and collaboration related to recovery efforts; and 4) explore how scenario planning can be used to support decisions. Using projected changes in ocean conditions coupled with anthropogenic stressors, we built four plausible future scenarios for right whales. These scenarios helped identify priority research and management actions that NOAA Fisheries and our partners can undertake to improve right whale recovery. We identified priority actions related to science, management, and partnerships including, but not limited to, 1) research on shifting spatial and temporal distributions of right whales and prey in a changing climate; 2) development of technology to further reduce impacts from human activities; 3) continuation of ongoing management efforts related to vessel traffic and fishing; and 4) continued maintenance of existing and development of new partnerships (e.g., industry engagement in problem solving). This scenario planning exercise helped prioritize North Atlantic right whale management and science needs in light of changing ocean conditions and anthropogenic impacts. It can also serve as a reference for how NOAA Fisheries and its partners can better prepare for multiple plausible futures while complementing other on-going initiatives. Priorities identified here can be considered in conjunction with implementation and monitoring actions such as with the Atlantic Large Whale Take Reduction Team (ALWTRT) and/or regional Right Whale U.S. Implementation Teams. The framework can also be repeated and improved upon as additional information becomes available to support future exercises.

Technical Memorandum↗

USGS2019

Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar) climate scenario planning pilot report

Scenario planning is a structured process that embraces uncertainty and explores plausible alternative future conditions under different assumptions to help manage risk and prioritize actions ( Schwartz 1996, Peterson et al . 2003). It has been used by a variety of organizations to explore and help prepare for the future, lends itself well to exploring the uncertainty surrounding changing environmental conditions, and is widely applicable to natural resource management issues. The conservation and management of protected resources for example, can be particularly challenging when the rate and magnitude of climate-related changes, and the response of species to those changes, are uncertain (NMFS 2016). The structured process of scenario planning can help resource managers navigate through potentially paralyzing uncertainties, manage risk, and evaluate/prioritize management actions associated with adapting to, and managing for, climate change (Moore et al . 2013). Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ) is a species highly vulnerable to climate change in the Northeast Atlantic (Hare et al . 2016a). Based on this and the above reasons, a scenario planning initiative was piloted by NOAA Fisheries to explore what the agency can do to improve U.S.Atlantic salmon population resilience to changing climate conditions in riverine, estuarine(transition), and marine environments across its current range (U.S. headwaters to Greenland). Project objectives were: 1) to better understand the challenges of managing Atlantic salmon in a changing climate; 2) to identify and discuss potential management actions and research activities that can be undertaken to increase our understanding of the drivers of Atlantic salmon productivity and resilience; 3) to increase collaborations and coordination related to the speciesrecovery; and 4) to explore how scenario planning can be used to support decisions. Outcomes from this initiative included, but were not limited to, the identification of high priority research and management actions to further collaborations and efforts to recover this species. The identified high priority actions were those that could be undertaken in the near-term(1-5 years) using current resources and in consideration of potential future conditions. Examples of identified actions by habitat (not in order of priority) included: 1) synthesize and refine range-wide life stage specific quantitative environmental thresholds for temperature, flow, etc.; 2) assess watershed habitat productivity; 3) assess forage fish and survival connection and options for marine migration monitoring; and 4) reduce dam-associated indirect estuarine mortality rate. In addition, a number of high priority climate-related actions were included in the revised Atlantic Salmon Recovery Plan (USFWS and NMFS 2019, Appendix 16) and at least two newly NOAA Fisheries funded projects are now underway (1. conduct range-wide habitat analysis and synthesize life stage specific quantitative thresholds and 2. identify locations of cold water refugia under a changing climate). This is the first use of the scenario planning process (NPS 2013) by NOAA Fisheries. This report documents an important example of applying scenario planning to marine species/environments and may serve as a useful reference for other case studies.

Atlantic Ocean↗