Geology topics

Diana Roman

Publications and source records attributed to Diana Roman.

14 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Getting the story straight: Common misconceptions around volcanoes and eruptions with case studies of recent events

The ability to rapidly disseminate scientific knowledge across the world has never been greater. This is paralleled by the ability of rumors to spread equally far and fast. Popular misconceptions can take root and, without correction, take on the appearance of facts. Commonly misunderstood topics include those with attention-grabbing phrasing (e.g. “Pacific Ring of Fire”, “supervolcanoes”, or “mega-tsunamis”), the intersection of volcanic research with high-profile science topics (climate or human health), aspirational science goals (eruption forecasts), and basic terminology (volcanic ash versus smoke, or magma “chambers”). In this paper, we describe eighteen misconceptions grouped in six themes (seismology, volcanoes and climate, systems and structures, volcanic hazards, timescales, photographs and footage) commonly encountered by volcanologists who are actively engaging with the public and media both during and between eruptions. Each misconception description is accompanied by takeaway points and summaries of recent research to assist the reader with the information necessary to describe the issues. Finally, we present seven case studies where incorrect information was widely shared and counteracted at well-known volcanoes and recent eruptions at Mount Agung (Bali, Indonesia), Mount Etna (Sicily, Italy), Kīlauea (Hawaii, U.S.A.), Tajogaite (La Palma, Spain), La Soufrière (St. Vincent), Taal Volcano (Philippines), and Yellowstone caldera (U.S.A.). This work is intended to help both volcanologists and non-specialists get the story straight, and to effectively communicate processes and scales of volcanism and volcanic hazards, impacts, and risks.

Journal of Applied Volcanology↗

USGS2025

A generalized deep learning model to detect and classify volcano seismicity

Volcano seismicity is often detected and classified based on its spectral properties. However, the wide variety of volcano seismic signals and increasing amounts of data make accurate, consistent, and efficient detection and classification challenging. Machine learning (ML) has proven very effective at detecting and classifying tectonic seismicity, particularly using Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and leveraging labeled datasets from regional seismic networks. Progress has been made applying ML to volcano seismicity, but efforts have typically been focused on a single volcano and are often hampered by the limited availability of training data. We build on the method of Tan et al. [2024] ( 10.1029/2024JB029194 ) to generalize a spectrogram-based CNN termed the VOlcano Infrasound and Seismic Spectrogram Neural Network ( VOISS-Net ) to detect and classify volcano seismicity at any volcano. We use a diverse training dataset of over 270,000 spectrograms from multiple volcanoes: Pavlof, Semisopochnoi, Tanaga, Takawangha, and Redoubt volcanoes\replaced (Alaska, USA); Mt. Etna (Italy); and Kīlauea, Hawai`i (USA). These volcanoes present a wide range of volcano seismic signals, source-receiver distances, and eruption styles. Our generalized VOISS-Net model achieves an accuracy of 87 % on the test set. We apply this model to continuous data from several volcanoes and eruptions included within and outside our training set, and find that multiple types of tremor, explosions, earthquakes, long-period events, and noise are successfully detected and classified. The model occasionally confuses transient signals such as earthquakes and explosions and misclassifies seismicity not included in the training dataset (e.g. teleseismic earthquakes). We envision the generalized VOISS-Net model to be applicable in both research and operational volcano monitoring settings.

Volcanica↗

USGS2024

Event classification, seismicity, and eruption forecasting at Great Sitkin Volcano, Alaska: 1999–2023

The frequency content of volcanogenic seismicity is often used to classify events and their spatial and temporal progression is then used to map subsurface volcanic processes. The progression of volcano-seismic events and associated source processes also plays a critical role in eruption forecasting. Here we develop and evaluate a computerized methodology for characterizing volcano-seismic event types using Frequency Index and Average Peak Frequency. We apply and test this technique at Great Sitkin Volcano, Alaska, classifying over 9000 hypocenters between 1999 and 2023. This 24-year time span covers periods of seismic quiescence, earthquake activity on nearby tectonic (bookshelf) faults, precursory unrest from 2016 to 2021, and the explosive onset in May 2021 of the ongoing effusive eruption. We use the spatial and temporal evolution of classified event types to map the active volcanic and tectonic processes, develop a conceptual model of the subsurface magmatic system, and perform a retrospective analysis of eruption forecasts at Great Sitkin Volcano between 2016 and the present. The classification and progression of hypocenters suggests the subsurface Great Sitkin Volcano magmatic system consists of a mid- to lower- crustal source zone between 10 and 40 km depth and an upper crustal magma storage area between −1 and 10 km depth (hypocenter depth is referenced to sea level and negative depths reflect height above sea level). The earliest precursors occurred in July 2016 and consisted of deep long-period and volcano-tectonic earthquakes at mid-crustal depths suggesting the subsequent unrest and eruption were triggered by a deeper intrusion of magma. This mid-crustal seismic activity was immediately followed by the onset upper-crustal long-period events and volcano-tectonic earthquakes VTs suggesting a strong linkage between the shallow and deeper portions of the magmatic system. The upper crustal area was likely capped by the 1974 lava dome until the magmatic explosion on May 26, 2021.

Alaska↗

USGS2022

Earthquakes indicated stress field change during the 2006 unrest of Augustine Volcano, Alaska

To examine controls on the local stress field at Augustine Volcano, Alaska, before its 2006 eruption, we calculated fault plane solutions for volcano-tectonic earthquakes from 2002 to 2006. The P-axis orientation was first aligned to the regional maximum compression (NW) and then rotated by about 90° (perpendicular to the dike alignment) after the onset of surface deformation in mid-August 2005. Using 3D finite element models, we systematically evaluated the effects of tectonic stresses, volcanic edifice densities, and dike overpressures on the local stress field orientation. Combining data and models to generate “phase diagrams” of different stress controls by these competing effects, we argue that moderate tectonic stress of 2–3 MPa at 600 m above sea level slightly exceeded the edifice loading before the precursory deformation and was then overprinted by a local stress field from dike opening with an overpressure of ~15 MPa.

Alaska↗

USGS2022

Complex magmatic-tectonic interactions during the 2020 Makushin Volcano, Alaska, earthquake swarm

On June 15, 2020, at 21:16 UTC, a locally-felt earthquake of magnitude 4.2 struck Unalaska Island, Alaska, ∼15 km west of the town of Unalaska and the large fishing port of Dutch Harbor. The event was followed by a M4.1 earthquake at 00:34 UTC and several M3+ aftershocks, initiating a prolific sequence with hundreds of earthquakes recorded into late December. The earthquakes all locate about 12 km southeast of the summit of Makushin Volcano at 7 to 10 km depth. To date, no eruptive activity or other surface changes have been observed at the volcano in webcam images, GPS or InSAR. Seismic bursts close to volcanoes are often associated with the onset of unrest that can lead to eruption. However, determining whether seismicity reflects magmatic rather than tectonic stresses is often challenging, although critical for hazard assessments and risk management strategies. To investigate the triggering mechanisms of the recent Makushin seismicity, we integrate information from space-time patterns of the earthquake hypocenters with their fault-plane solutions. We relocate the swarm events using double-difference relocation techniques and a 3D velocity model and find that the earthquakes, although they seem to follow two predominant orientations (NW-SE and SW-NE), do not show clear clustering into preferred alignments. Similarly, we do not observe pronounced migration in time and space. Fault-plane solutions (FPS) for all but one M2.5+ earthquakes have P-axis orientations consistent with subhorizontal NW-SE oriented regional maximum compression, whereas many of the lower-magnitude earthquakes have P-axes perpendicular to regional maximum compression. This provides evidence for the presence of a local stress field likely induced by magma intrusion. Results from Coulomb stress modeling are also consistent with dike inflation modulated by stresses induced by the M4+ earthquakes. The seismic swarm is thus likely linked to a superposition of driving stresses from both magmatic and tectonic processes on pre-existing faults. The case of the 2020 Makushin swarm, with its unusual characteristics, challenges traditional swarm classification schemes and suggests that a reconsideration of the definition of seismic swarms as having the maximum magnitude event in the middle of the swarm is warranted.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Ongoing (2015-) magma surge in the upper mantle beneath the Island of Hawaiʻi

“Surges” in magma supply from the mantle can lead to significant changes in eruptive behavior, thus their early identification is critical to long-term eruption forecasting. Here, we document and analyze two order-of-magnitude increases in seismicity in the upper mantle beneath southern Hawaiʻi between 2015 and 2020. We interpret the anomalous seismicity, which involved the rapid formation of new multiplets and a change in fault-plane solution orientations relative to pre-2015 events, as reflecting a substantial increase, or “surge” in mantle-derived magma, and we suggest that the intruded magma has been driving concurrent unrest at Mauna Loa, Kīlauea, and Lōʻihi Volcanoes through mechanical stress transfer.

Hawaii↗

USGS2021

Earthquakes indicated magma viscosity during Kīlauea’s 2018 eruption

Magma viscosity strongly controls the style (for example, explosive versus effusive) of a volcanic eruption and thus its hazard potential, but can only be measured during or after an eruption. The identification of precursors indicative of magma viscosity would enable forecasting of the eruption style and the scale of associated hazards 1 . The unanticipated May 2018 rift intrusion and eruption of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i 2 displayed exceptional chemical and thermal variability in erupted lavas, leading to unpredictable effusion rates and explosivity. Here, using an integrated analysis of seismicity and magma rheology, we show that the orientation of fault-plane solutions (which indicate a fault’s orientation and sense of movement) for earthquakes preceding and accompanying the 2018 eruption indicate a 90-degree local stress-field rotation from background, a phenomenon previously observed only at high-viscosity eruptions 3 , and never before at Kīlauea 4,5,6,7,8 . Experimentally obtained viscosities for 2018 products and earlier lavas from the Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō vents tightly constrain the viscosity threshold required for local stress-field reorientation. We argue that rotated fault-plane solutions in earthquake swarms at Kīlauea and other volcanoes worldwide provide an early indication that unrest involves magma of heightened viscosity, and thus real-time monitoring of the orientations of fault-plane solutions could provide critical information about the style of an impending eruption. Furthermore, our results provide insight into the fundamental nature of coupled failure and flow in complex multiphase systems.

Hawaii↗

USGS2021

Volcanic seismicity beneath Chuginadak Island, Alaska (Cleveland and Tana volcanoes): Implications for magma dynamics and eruption forecasting

Cleveland and Tana are remote volcanoes located in the central Aleutian volcanic arc on the eastern end of the Islands of Four Mountains (IFM). The persistently active Mount Cleveland volcano, on the western side of Chuginadak Island, is surrounded by several closely spaced Quaternary volcanic centers including Carlisle, Herbert, Kagamil, Tana, and Uliaga, and numerous small satellite vents on Chiginadak between Cleveland and Tana. The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) installed two permanent broadband seismometers on Chuginadak Island in 2014, and we operated a temporary broadband network focused on the western side of the island in 2015–2016. Collectively, these stations provided the first seismic observations of this frequently active volcano and the surrounding Holocene-aged volcanic vents. During the study period (July 2014–January 2019), eruptive activity at Cleveland was characterized by small explosions separated by periods of lava effusion that formed small domes in the volcano's summit crater. We characterize seismicity beneath Chuginadak Island through automated analysis of event waveform frequency content, development of a one-dimensional P-wave velocity model, calculation of earthquake hypocenters, magnitudes, focal mechanisms, and identification of earthquake families. This analysis reveals the full range of seismic event types expected in a highly active volcanic environment and includes Volcano-Tectonic (VT) earthquakes, Long-Period (LP) events, and explosion signals. LP events appear to cluster at shallow depth beneath the active crater of Mount Cleveland and almost all of the explosions occur without identifiable short-term (hours to days) seismic precursors. VT earthquakes beneath Mount Cleveland occur at depths of 2 to 8 km below sea level (BSL) and range in magnitude from −0.2 to 1.8. VT focal mechanisms have horizontal P-axes that align with the regional axis of maximum stress. These observations, and a relatively slow one-dimensional seismic velocity model, are consistent with a shallow body of magma that is fed through a deeper conduit system. The time-history of VT earthquakes and shallow LP events suggest their occurrence may track the transfer of magma and fluids from the mid-crust to the shallow portions of the conduit system and may provide a means to anticipate future explosions and periods of dome growth. VT hypocenters also extend ~7 km northeast of Cleveland's summit at depths of 5 to 10 km BSL, under a group of Holocene-aged vents between Mount Cleveland and Tana. These earthquakes have vertically-oriented P-axes and a greater percentage occur in families. These observations, combined with observations of vent orientation and morphology and gas flux, suggest the area between Cleveland and Tana represents a zone of complicated volcano-tectonic interaction, similar to calderas elsewhere in the Aleutian arc. The presence of a larger volcanic system in the eastern IFM could influence magmatism and account for the multiple closely spaced volcanic centers in this region.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Evaluating the state-of-the-art in remote volcanic eruption characterization Part I: Raikoke volcano, Kuril Islands

Raikoke, a small, unmonitored volcano in the Kuril Islands, erupted in June 2019. We integrate data from satellites (including Sentinel-2, TROPOMI, MODIS, Himawari-8), the International Monitoring System (IMS) infrasound network, and global lightning detection network (GLD360) with information from local authorities and social media to retrospectively characterize the eruptive sequence and improve understanding of the pre-, syn- and post- eruptive behavior. We observe six infrasound pulses beginning on 21 June at 17:49:55 UTC as well as the main Plinian phase on 21 June at 22:29 UTC. Each pulse is tracked in space and time using lightning and satellite imagery as the plumes drift eastward. Post-eruption visible satellite imagery shows expansion of the island's surface area, an increase in crater size, and a possibly-linked algal bloom south of the island. We use thermal satellite imagery and plume modeling to estimate plume height at 10–12 km asl and 1.5–2 × 106 kg/s mass eruption rate. Remote infrasound data provide insight into syn-eruptive changes in eruption intensity. Our analysis illustrates the value of interdisciplinary analyses of remote data to illuminate eruptive processes. However, our inability to identify deformation, pre-eruptive outgassing, and thermal signals, which may reflect the relatively short duration (~12 h) of the eruption and minimal land area around the volcano and/or the character of closed-system eruptions, highlights current limitations in the application of remote sensing for eruption detection and characterization.

Hokkaido, Sakhalin Oblast↗

USGS2021

Evaluating the state-of-the-art in remote volcanic eruption characterization Part II: Ulawun volcano, Papua New Guinea

Retrospective eruption characterization is valuable for advancing our understanding of volcanic systems and evaluating our observational capabilities, especially with remote technologies (defined here as a space-borne system or non-local, ground-based instrumentation which include regional and remote infrasound sensors). In June 2019, the open-system Ulawun volcano, Papua New Guinea, produced a VEI 4 eruption. We combined data from satellites (including Sentinel-2, TROPOMI, MODIS, Himawari-8), the International Monitoring System infrasound network, and GLD360 globally detected lightning with information from the local authorities and social media to characterize the pre-, syn - and post-eruptive behaviour. The Rabaul Volcano Observatory recorded ~24 h of seismicity and detected SO 2 emissions ~16 h before the visually-documented start of the Plinian phase on 26 June at 04:20 UTC. Infrasound and SO 2 detections suggest the eruption started during the night on 24 June 2019 at 10:39 UTC ~38 h before ash detections with a gas-dominated jetting phase. Local reports and infrasound detections show that the second phase of the eruption started on 25 June 19:28 UTC with ~6 h of jetting. The first detected lightning occurred on 26 June 00:14 UTC, and ash emissions were first detected by Himawari-8 at 01:00 UTC. Post-eruptive satellite imagery indicates new flow deposits to the south and north of the edifice and ash fall to the west and southwest. In particular, regional infrasound data provided novel insight into eruption onset and syn -eruptive changes in intensity. We conclude that, while remote observations are sufficient for detection and tracking of syn-eruptive changes, key challenges in data latency, acquisition, and synthesis must be addressed to improve future near-real-time characterization of eruptions at minimally-monitored or unmonitored volcanoes.

Bismark volcanic arc, New Britain Island, Ulawun v↗

USGS2020

Ps-P tomography of a mid-crustal magma reservoir beneath Cleveland Volcano, Alaska

Seismic tomography of the crust is an essential tool for studying the three-dimensional structure of magmatic plumbing systems feeding active volcanoes, but it is often limited in resolution by the absence of deep local seismicity. Teleseismic receiver functions can be used to illuminate local structural variations, but typically do not account for the effects of three-dimensional velocity heterogeneities. Here we harness the complementary strengths of both techniques by processing Ps-P delay times derived from teleseismic receiver functions in a tomographic S wave inversion. Using our inversion technique, we produce the first tomographic crustal velocity model beneath Cleveland Volcano, identifying a vertically extensive high V P /V S anomaly beneath the volcano that likely signifies a middle-to-lower crustal magma reservoir. The observation is the first of its kind in the central Aleutians, illustrating the potential of our technique to advance our understanding of crustal magmatic systems without broad seismic networks or distributed local seismicity.

Alaska↗

USGS2020

Linking subsurface to surface using gas emission and melt inclusion data at Mount Cleveland volcano, Alaska

Mount Cleveland is one of Alaska's most active volcanoes, yet little is known about the magmatic system driving persistent and dynamic volcanic activity. Volcanic gas and melt inclusion (MI) data from 2016 were combined to investigate shallow magmatic processes. SO 2 emission rates were between 166 and 324 t/day and the H 2 O/SO 2 was 600 ± 53, whereas CO 2 and H 2 S were below detection. Olivine‐, clinopyroxene‐, and plagioclase‐hosted MIs have up to 3.8 wt.% H 2 O, 514 ppm CO 2 , and 2,320 ppm S. Equilibration depths, based on MI H 2 O contents, suggest that a magmatic column extended from 0.5 to 3.0 km (~10–60 MPa). We used MI data to empirically model open‐system H‐C‐S degassing from 0 to 12 km and found that a column of magma between 0.5 and 3 km could produce the measured gas H 2 O/SO 2 ratio. However, additional magma deeper than 3 km is required to sustain emissions over periods greater than days to weeks, if the observed vent dimension is a valid proxy for the conduit. Assuming an initial S content of 2,320 ppm, the total magma supply needed to sustain the annual SO 2 flux was 5 to 9.8 Mm 3 /yr, suggesting a maximum intrusive‐to‐extrusive ratio of 13:1. The model predicts degassing of <50 t/day CO 2 for July 2016, which corresponds to a maximum predicted CO 2 /SO 2 of 0.2. Ultimately, frequent recharge from deeper, less degassed magma is required to drive the continuous activity observed over multiple years. During periods of recharge we would expect lower H 2 O/SO 2 and measurable volcanic CO 2 .

Alaska↗

USGS2019

High rates of inflation during a noneruptive episode of seismic unrest at Semisopochnoi Volcano, Alaska in 2014–2015

Magma intrusion rate is a key parameter in eruption triggering but is poorly quantified in existing geodetic studies. Here we examine two episodes of rapid inflation in this context. Two noneruptive microseismic swarms were recorded at Semisopochnoi Volcano, Alaska in 2014–2015. We use differential SAR techniques and TerraSAR‐X images to document surface deformation from 2011 to 2015, which comprises island‐wide radial inflation totaling ~25 cm (+/−1 cm) line of sight displacement in 2014–2015. Multiple source geometries are tested in an inversion of the deformation data, and InSAR data are best fit by a spheroid trending to the northeast and plunging to the southeast, with a major axis of ~4 km and minor axes of ~1 km, directly under the central caldera of Semisopochnoi. In 2014, a modeled influx of 0.043 km 3 of magma caused line of sight displacement of ~17 cm. This magma was stored at a depth of ~8 km, until 2015 when 0.029 km 3 was added. Along with the definition of inflation source parameters, the recorded seismic events are relocated using differential travel times. These relocated events outline a linear aseismic area within a larger zone of shallow (<10 km) seismicity. This aseismic region aligns with the centroid of the deformation model. Based on these geodetic and seismic models, the plumbing system at Semisopochnoi is interpreted as a spheroidal magma storage zone at a depth of ˜8 km below a linear feature of partial melt. The observed deformation and seismicity appear to result from rapid injection into this main storage region.

Alaska↗

USGS2011

Mechanism of the 1996-97 non-eruptive volcano-tectonic earthquake swarm at Iliamna Volcano, Alaska

A significant number of volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquake swarms, some of which are accompanied by ground deformation and/or volcanic gas emissions, do not culminate in an eruption. These swarms are often thought to represent stalled intrusions of magma into the mid- or shallow-level crust. Real-time assessment of the likelihood that a VT swarm will culminate in an eruption is one of the key challenges of volcano monitoring, and retrospective analysis of non-eruptive swarms provides an important framework for future assessments. Here we explore models for a non-eruptive VT earthquake swarm located beneath Iliamna Volcano, Alaska, in May 1996–June 1997 through calculation and inversion of fault-plane solutions for swarm and background periods, and through Coulomb stress modeling of faulting types and hypocenter locations observed during the swarm. Through a comparison of models of deep and shallow intrusions to swarm observations, we aim to test the hypothesis that the 1996–97 swarm represented a shallow intrusion, or “failed” eruption. Observations of the 1996–97 swarm are found to be consistent with several scenarios including both shallow and deep intrusion, most likely involving a relatively small volume of intruded magma and/or a low degree of magma pressurization corresponding to a relatively low likelihood of eruption.

Alaska↗