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Denise J. Reed

Publications and source records attributed to Denise J. Reed.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

Proposed best modeling practices for assessing the effects of ecosystem restoration on fish

Large-scale aquatic ecosystem restoration is increasing and is often controversial because of the economic costs involved, with the focus of the controversies gravitating to the modeling of fish responses. We present a scheme for best practices in selecting, implementing, interpreting, and reporting of fish modeling designed to assess the effects of restoration actions on fish populations and aquatic food webs. Previous best practice schemes that tended to be more general are summarized, and they form the foundation for our scheme that is specifically tailored for fish and restoration. We then present a 31-step scheme, with supporting text and narrative for each step, which goes from understanding how the results will be used through post-auditing to ensure the approach is used effectively in subsequent applications. We also describe 13 concepts that need to be considered in parallel to these best practice steps. Examples of these concepts include: life cycles and strategies; variability and uncertainty; nonequilibrium theory; biological, temporal, and spatial scaling; explicit versus implicit representation of processes; and model validation. These concepts are often not considered or not explicitly stated and casual treatment of them leads to mis-communication and mis-understandings, which in turn, often underlie the resulting controversies. We illustrate a subset of these steps, and their associated concepts, using the three case studies of Glen Canyon Dam on the Colorado River, the wetlands of coastal Louisiana, and the Everglades. Use of our proposed scheme will require investment of additional time and effort (and dollars) to be done effectively. We argue that such an investment is well worth it and will more than pay back in the long run in effective and efficient restoration actions and likely avoided controversies and legal proceedings.

Ecological Modelling

Projecting cumulative benefits of multiple river restoration projects: an example from the Sacramento-San Joaquin River system in California

Despite increasingly large investments, the potential ecological effects of river restoration programs are still small compared to the degree of human alterations to physical and ecological function. Thus, it is rarely possible to “restore” pre-disturbance conditions; rather restoration programs (even large, well-funded ones) will nearly always involve multiple small projects, each of which can make some modest change to selected ecosystem processes and habitats. At present, such projects are typically selected based on their attributes as individual projects (e.g., consistency with programmatic goals of the funders, scientific soundness, and acceptance by local communities), and ease of implementation. Projects are rarely prioritized (at least explicitly) based on how they will cumulatively affect ecosystem function over coming decades. Such projections require an understanding of the form of the restoration response curve, or at least that we assume some plausible relations and estimate cumulative effects based thereon. Drawing on our experience with the CALFED Bay-Delta Ecosystem Restoration Program in California, we consider potential cumulative system-wide benefits of a restoration activity extensively implemented in the region: isolating/filling abandoned floodplain gravel pits captured by rivers to reduce predation of outmigrating juvenile salmon by exotic warmwater species inhabiting the pits. We present a simple spreadsheet model to show how different assumptions about gravel pit bathymetry and predator behavior would affect the cumulative benefits of multiple pit-filling and isolation projects, and how these insights could help managers prioritize which pits to fill.

California

Climate change impacts on U.S. coastal and marine ecosystems

Increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases projected for the 21st century are expected to lead to increased mean global air and ocean temperatures. The National Assessment of Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (NAST 2001) was based on a series of regional and sector assessments. This paper is a summary of the coastal and marine resources sector review of potential impacts on shorelines, estuaries, coastal wetlands, coral reefs, and ocean margin ecosystems. The assessment considered the impacts of several key drivers of climate change: sea level change; alterations in precipitation patterns and subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment; increased ocean temperature; alterations in circulation patterns; changes in frequency and intensity of coastal storms; and increased levels of atmospheric CO 2 . Increasing rates of sea-level rise and intensity and frequency of coastal storms and hurricanes over the next decades will increase threats to shorelines, wetlands, and coastal development. Estuarine productivity will change in response to alteration in the timing and amount of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment delivery. Higher water temperatures and changes in freshwater delivery will alter estuarine stratification, residence time, and eutrophication. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to increase coral bleaching and higher CO 2 levels may reduce coral calcification, making it more difficult for corals to recover from other disturbances, and inhibiting poleward shifts. Ocean warming is expected to cause poleward shifts in the ranges of many other organisms, including commercial species, and these shifts may have secondary effects on their predators and prey. Although these potential impacts of climate change and variability will vary from system to system, it is important to recognize that they will be superimposed upon, and in many cases intensify, other ecosystem stresses (pollution, harvesting, habitat destruction, invasive species, land and resource use, extreme natural events), which may lead to more significant consequences.

Estuaries

Patterns and processes of wetland loss in coastal Louisiana are complex: A reply to Turner 2001. Estimating the indirect effects of hydrologic change on wetland loss: If the Earth is curved, then how would we know it?

The coastal wetlands of Louisiana comprise a vast expanse of marine to freshwater wetland plant communities interspersed w-ith shallow bays and bayous. These wetlands were built by processes associated with the present-day Mississippi and Atchatfalaya River deltas and older distributaries occupied by the river over the past 7,000 }rears. The high rates of wetland loss identified in this system during the 20th century have serious consequences for living resources (Boesch et al. 1994) and coastal residents, and they affect our ability to maintain navigation and flood control. The restoration and management response to this problem must be grounded in a sound understanding of the causative factors. The system has been highly altered by river levees, roads and railway embankments, impoundments, and canals of many dimensions dredged for a variety of purposes. These changes have been imposed on a landscape that is essentially the result of a delicate natural balance between wetland building processes and compaction, subsidence, and sea-level rise. Many now recognize that coastal wetlands can cope with relatively high rates of subsidence and sea-level rise, as long as the processes that ensure wetland sustainability through vertical accumulation of substrate remain unimpaired (Boesch et al. 2000). The challenge facing both the scientific community and coastal resource managers in Louisiana is to look to the future. We must use our understanding of the problem and how it evolved to develop a multi-use ecosystem management plan, and some efforts have been made by state and federal agencies towards this goal (LCWCRTF & WCRA 1998). The present discussions (Turner 1997, 2001; Day et al. 2000; Gosselink 2001) demonstrate the complexity of the issues faced in Louisiana. While such discourse is common in the scientific community where varied approaches and interpretations are a sign of vitality, it is helpful to be clear about the state of knowledge and what levels of uncertainty exist. We seek to clarify some of the issues that have been raised in the discussion, recognizing that our best-available science cannot yet resolve many of them as completely as all would like.

Louisiana

Pattern and process of land loss in the Mississippi Delta: A spatial and temporal analysis of wetland habitat change

An earlier investigation (Turner 1997) concluded that most of the coastal wetland loss in Louisiana was caused by the effects of canal dredging, that loss was near zero in the absence of canals, and that land loss had decreased to near zero by the late 1990s. This analysis was based on a 15-min quadrangle (approximately 68,000 ha) scale that is too large to isolate processes responsible for small-scale wetland loss and too small to capture those responsible for large-scale loss. We conducted a further evaluation of the relationship between direct loss due to canal dredging and all other loss from 1933–1990 using a spatial scale of 4,100 ha that accurately captures local land-loss processes. Regressions of other wetland loss on canal area (i.e., direct loss) for the Birdfoot, Terrebonne, and Calcasieu basins were not significant. Positive relationships were found for the Breton (r 2 =0.675), Barataria (r 2 =0.47), and Mermentau (r 2 =0.35) basins, indicating that the extent of canals is significantly related to wetland loss in these basins. A significant negative relationship (r 2 =0.36) was found for the Atchafalaya coastal basin which had statistically lower loss rates than the other basins as a whole. The Atchafalaya area receives direct inflow of about one third of the Mississippi discharge. When the data were combined for all basins, 9.2% of the variation in other wetland loss was attributable to canals. All significant regressions intercepted the y-axis at positive loss values indicating that some loss occurred in the absence of canals. Wetland loss did not differ significantly from the coast inland or between marsh type. We agree with Turner that canals are an important agent in causing wetland loss in coastal Louisiana, but strongly disagree that they are responsible for the vast majority of this loss. We conclude that wetland loss in the Mississippi delta is an ongoing complex process involving several interacting factors and that efforts to create and restore Louisiana’s coastal wetlands must emphasize riverine inputs of freshwater and sediments.

Louisiana

Pattern and process of land loss in the Mississippi Delta: A spatial and temporal analysis of wetland habitat change

An earlier investigation (Turner 1997) concluded that most of the coastal wetland loss in Louisiana was caused by the effects of canal dredging, that loss was near zero in the absence of canals, and that land loss had decreased to near zero by the late 1990s. This analysis was based on a 15-min quadrangle (approximately 68,000 ha) scale that is too large to isolate processes responsible for small-scale wetland loss and too small to capture those responsible for large-scale loss. Herein, we conduct a further evaluation of the relationship between direct loss due to canal dredging and all other loss from 1933–1990 using a spatial scale of 4,100 ha that accurately captures local land-loss processes. Data sets for Pontchartrain and Breton basins did not meet the criteria for parametric statistics. Regressions of other wetland loss on canal area (i.e., direct loss) for the Birdfoot, Terrebonne, and Calcasieu basins were not significant. Significant positive curvilinear relationships were isolated for the Barataria (R 2 =0.40) and Mermentau (R 2 =0.29) basins, indicating that the extent of canals is significantly related to wetland loss in these basins. A significant negative relationship (R 2 =0.361) was found for the Atchafalaya coastal basin which had statistically lower loss rates than the other basins as a whole. When the data were combined for all basins, 9.2% of the variation in other wetland loss was attributable to canals. All significant regressions intercepted the Y-axis at positive loss values indicating that some loss occurred in the absence of canals. We agree with Turner that canals are an important agent in causing wetland loss in coastal Louisiana, but strongly disagree that they are responsible for the vast majority of this loss. We conclude that wetland loss in the Mississippi delta is an ongoing complex process involving several interacting factors and that efforts to create and restore Louisiana’s coastal wetlands must emphasize riverine inputs of freshwater and sediments.

Louisiana

The influence of Hurricane Andrew on sediment distribution in Louisiana coastal marshes

The areal extent and temporal patterns of sediment deposition in delta marshes and shallow water bodies of Louisiana associated with the passage of Hurricane Andrew were determined from sediment traps, marker horizons, and benchmarks deployed for other studies. Data were collected over different time scales from 11 sites representing salt, brackish, and intermediate marshes, shallow water substrates, and regularly-flooded and partially impounded marshes located in Terrebonne, Barataria, and Pontchartrain basins. Storm tide data were collected at 6 hydrograph stations located in the vicinity of the sediment sampling sites. Significant sediment deposition and surface elevation changes were associated with the occurrence of storm tides both near and far (up to 130 km away) from the track of the storm. Short-term sediment deposition indicated an increase of up to 1–3 orders of magnitude compared to pre-storm rates. This increased rate remained high for up to 12 weeks, suggesting that material brought in by the storm was available for resuspension and deposition. But short-term sediment deposition decreased precipitously after passage of the first major cold front across Louisiana, suggesting that the sediment made available by the storm was removed or consolidated. The storm-associated sediments were characteristically coarser with lower organic matter content than the pre-storm marsh soils. Marsh vertical accretion and surface elevation change were enhanced on both semi-annual and annual time scales for all sites we studied. This single storm generated 2–6 cm more vertical accretion than occurred in either the year before or after the storm. Sediment was both introduced from outside the coastal marsh system and redistributed as the marsh substrate eroded. At shallow water sites, elevation increases were greater and were maintained near wave barriers constructed to baffle water movement while unprotected areas had smaller increases and quickly lost whatever gains had occurred. These findings indicate the potential importance of hurricanes in providing a pulse of sediment on a broad geographic scale to balance the effects of subsidence in this rapidly subsiding delta. These results further suggest that hurricanes play a large role in coastal marsh survival, particularly for marshes remote or isolated (i.e., impounded) from a riverine source of sediment.

Louisiana

Marsh submergence vs. marsh accretion: Interpreting accretion deficit data in coastal Louisiana

The apparent imbalance between relative sea-level rise and vertical marsh accretion is frequently cited as a major factor in the problem of wetland loss in Louisiana. Rates of relative sea-level rise are high in Louisiana due to high rates of subsidence. Although marsh accretion rates are also high, they are usually insufficient to maintain the relative elevation of the marsh surface. This situation is commonly referred to as an accretion deficit. The interpretation of subsidence and accretion data, and therefrom accretion deficit data, is confounded by the numerous geologic, biologic, and sedimentologic processes influencing coastal marshes in Louisiana. Therefore, calculation of accretion deficits can be influenced by the techniques used to measure subsidence and accretion. The concept of accretion deficit is based on the assumption that accretion rates are equivalent to elevation change rates, but this assumption may not necessarily be correct. We suggest that direct measurements of elevation change in marsh surface can provide better indications of the status of the marsh surface with respect to subsidence and accretion.

Louisiana