Geology topics

Debi Kilb

Publications and source records attributed to Debi Kilb.

14 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

Submarine avalanche deposits hold clues to past earthquakes

Earthquakes and other natural events sometimes shake the seafloor near coastlines severely enough to cause underwater avalanches that rush down steep slopes, scouring the seabed and carrying sediment to greater depths. These fast-moving sediment-laden flows, called turbidity currents , have at times damaged underwater infrastructure like pipelines and communications cables, as they did, for example, in snapping transatlantic cables off the coast of Newfoundland after the 1929 Grand Banks earthquake.

EOS Transactions↗

USGS2022

Alert optimization of the PLUM earthquake early warning algorithm for the western United States

We determine an optimal alerting configuration for the propagation of local undamped motion (PLUM) earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithm for use by the U.S. ShakeAlert system covering California, Oregon, and Washington. All EEW systems should balance the primary goal of providing timely alerts for impactful or potentially damaging shaking while limiting alerts for shaking that is too low to be of concern (precautionary alerts). The PLUM EEW algorithm forward predicts observed ground motions to nearby sites within a defined radius without accounting for attenuation, avoiding the earthquake source parameter estimation step of most EEW algorithms. PLUM was originally developed in Japan where the alert regions and ground motions for which alerts are issued differ from those implemented by ShakeAlert. We compare predicted ground motions from PLUM to ShakeMap‐reported ground motions for a set of 22 U.S. West Coast earthquakes of magnitude 4.4–7.2 and evaluate available warning times. We examine a range of prediction radii (20–100 km), thresholds used to issue an alert (alert threshold), and levels of impactful or potentially damaging shaking (target threshold). We find optimal performance when the alert threshold is close to the target threshold, although higher target ground motions benefit from somewhat lower alert thresholds to ensure timely alerts. We also find that performance, measured as the cost reduction that a user can achieve, depends on the user’s tolerance for precautionary alerts. Users with a low target threshold and high tolerance for precautionary alerts achieve optimal performance when larger prediction radii (60–100 km) are used. In contrast, users with high target thresholds and low tolerance for precautionary alerts achieve better performance for smaller prediction radii (30–60 km). Therefore, setting the PLUM prediction radius to 60 km balances the needs of many users and provides warning times of up to ∼20 s.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2021

The PLUM earthquake early warning algorithm: A retrospective case study of West Coast, USA, data

The PLUM (Propagation of Local Undamped Motion) earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithm differs from typical source-based EEW algorithms as it predicts shaking directly from observed shaking without first deriving earthquake source information (e.g., magnitude and epicenter). Here, we determine optimal PLUM event detection thresholds for U.S. West Coast earthquakes using two data sets: 558 M3.5+ earthquakes (California, Oregon, Washington; 2012–2017) and the ShakeAlert test suite of historic and problematic signals (1999–2015). PLUM computes Modified Mercalli Intensity ( I MMI ) using velocity and acceleration data, leveraging co-located sensors to avoid problematic signals. An event detection is issued when the observed I MMI exceeds a given threshold(s). We find a two-station detection method using I MMI trigger thresholds of 4.0 and 3.0 for the first and second stations, respectively, is optimal for detecting M4.5+ earthquakes. PLUM detected 79 events in the 2012–2017 data set, reporting (not including telemetry or alert dissemination) detection times on par, and sometimes faster than current EEW methods (mean 8 s; median 6 s). As expected, detection times were slower for the older 1999–2015 earthquakes ( N = 21; mean 11 s; median 6 s) when station coverage was sparser. Of the 31 PLUM detected M5+ events (10 2012–2017; 21 1999–2015), theoretically 20 (∼65%) could provide timely warnings. PLUM issued no false detections and avoided issuing detections for all calibration/anomalous signals, regional and teleseismic events. We conclude PLUM can successfully identify I MMI 4+ shaking from local earthquakes and could complement and enhance EEW in the U.S.

British Columbia, California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2020

Peak ground velocity spatial variability revealed by dense seismic array in southern California

Understanding and modeling variability of ground motion is essential for building accurate and precise ground motion prediction equations, which can net site‐specific characterization and reduced hazard levels. Here, we explore the spatial variability in peak ground velocity (PGV) at Sage Brush Flats along the San Jacinto Fault in southern California. We use data from a dense array (0.6 x 0.6 km 2 , 1,108 geophones, station spacings 10‐30 m) deployed in 2014 for ~1‐month. These data offer an opportunity to study small scale variability in this region. We examine 38 2≤M L ≤4.2 earthquakes within 200 km of the array. Fault strands and a small basin impact the ground motions, producing PGV variations up to 22% of the mean and a 40% reduction in P and S wave near‐surface velocities. We find along‐fault rupture directivity, source, and path effects can increase PGVs by 167%. Surface PGV measurements exceed the co‐located borehole station (depth 148 m) PGV by factors of 3‐10, confirming the impact on PGV from near surface fault structures, basins, topography, and amplifications from soft sediments. Consistently we find high PGVs within the basin structure. A pair of ~co‐located M L 2.6 events produce repeatable PGV values with similar spatial patterns. The average corner frequencies of these two events are 11‐16 Hz and viable measurements of stress drop can differ by 6.45MPa. Within this small array, the PGV values are variable implying spatial extrapolation of PGV to regions of known faults and basins, even across a small area, should be done with caution.

California↗

USGS2018

Tilt Trivia: A free multiplayer app to learn geoscience concepts and definitions

Today’s technology is opening up new ways to learn. Here, we introduce Tilt Trivia, a suite of quiz‐style, multiplayer games for use on mobile devices and tablets (Android or Apple) to help students learn simple definitions and facts. This mobile device game was built using the Unity engine and has a multiplayer functionality that runs seamlessly, all day, every day. A single game consists of 6–10 questions that are selected at random from a base suite of 13–33 questions. A single Tilt Trivia game takes 3–7 min to complete and allows up to five players to play simultaneously in the same game space. To begin, players select a topical avatar to represent them in the game. While in the competitive playing field, players are presented with a question and then they simply tilt their tablets until their avatar rests on the correct answer marker (i.e., true or false). Because the playing field is constantly tilting, keeping your avatar on the correct answer requires a continual counter‐tilting motion of the tablet to maintain your position within the game. A countdown timer is incorporated requiring players to answer the questions as quickly as possible. At the end of the game, a leaderboard displays the players’ scores and rankings, a metric that motivates repeat play. Players have the option of jostling other players off of the correct answer in the hopes of netting the highest score. The game is configurable to any topic and currently there are games for eight different topics (see Data and Resources ).

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2014

Rapid earthquake characterization using MEMS accelerometers and volunteer hosts following the M 7.2 Darfield, New Zealand, Earthquake

We test the feasibility of rapidly detecting and characterizing earthquakes with the Quake‐Catcher Network (QCN) that connects low‐cost microelectromechanical systems accelerometers to a network of volunteer‐owned, Internet‐connected computers. Following the 3 September 2010 M 7.2 Darfield, New Zealand, earthquake we installed over 180 QCN sensors in the Christchurch region to record the aftershock sequence. The sensors are monitored continuously by the host computer and send trigger reports to the central server. The central server correlates incoming triggers to detect when an earthquake has occurred. The location and magnitude are then rapidly estimated from a minimal set of received ground‐motion parameters. Full seismic time series are typically not retrieved for tens of minutes or even hours after an event. We benchmark the QCN real‐time detection performance against the GNS Science GeoNet earthquake catalog. Under normal network operations, QCN detects and characterizes earthquakes within 9.1 s of the earthquake rupture and determines the magnitude within 1 magnitude unit of that reported in the GNS catalog for 90% of the detections.

Darfield↗

USGS2012

Listening to the 2011 magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake

The magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake on 11 March 2011 is the largest earthquake to date in Japan’s modern history and is ranked as the fourth largest earthquake in the world since 1900. This earthquake occurred within the northeast Japan subduction zone (Figure 1 ), where the Pacific plate is subducting beneath the Okhotsk plate at rate of ∼8–9 cm/yr (DeMets et al. 2010 ). This type of extremely large earthquake within a subduction zone is generally termed a “megathrust” earthquake. Strong shaking from this magnitude 9 earthquake engulfed the entire Japanese Islands, reaching a maximum acceleration ∼3 times that of gravity (3 g). Two days prior to the main event, a foreshock sequence occurred, including one earthquake of magnitude 7.2. Following the main event, numerous aftershocks occurred around the main slip region; the largest of these was magnitude 7.9. The entire foreshocks-mainshock-aftershocks sequence was well recorded by thousands of sensitive seismometers and geodetic instruments across Japan, resulting in the best-recorded megathrust earthquake in history. This devastating earthquake resulted in significant damage and high death tolls caused primarily by the associated large tsunami. This tsunami reached heights of more than 30 m, and inundation propagated inland more than 5 km from the Pacific coast, which also caused a nuclear crisis that is still affecting people’s lives in certain regions of Japan.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2011

Loading of the San Andreas fault by flood-induced rupture of faults beneath the Salton Sea

The southern San Andreas fault has not experienced a large earthquake for approximately 300 years, yet the previous five earthquakes occurred at ~180-year intervals. Large strike-slip faults are often segmented by lateral stepover zones. Movement on smaller faults within a stepover zone could perturb the main fault segments and potentially trigger a large earthquake. The southern San Andreas fault terminates in an extensional stepover zone beneath the Salton Sea—a lake that has experienced periodic flooding and desiccation since the late Holocene. Here we reconstruct the magnitude and timing of fault activity beneath the Salton Sea over several earthquake cycles. We observe coincident timing between flooding events, stepover fault displacement and ruptures on the San Andreas fault. Using Coulomb stress models, we show that the combined effect of lake loading, stepover fault movement and increased pore pressure could increase stress on the southern San Andreas fault to levels sufficient to induce failure. We conclude that rupture of the stepover faults, caused by periodic flooding of the palaeo-Salton Sea and by tectonic forcing, had the potential to trigger earthquake rupture on the southern San Andreas fault. Extensional stepover zones are highly susceptible to rapid stress loading and thus the Salton Sea may be a nucleation point for large ruptures on the southern San Andreas fault.

California↗

USGS2009

A case study of two M ~5 mainshocks in Anza, California: Is the footprint of an aftershock sequence larger than we think?

It has been traditionally held that aftershocks occur within one to two fault lengths of the mainshock. Here we demonstrate that this perception has been shaped by the sensitivity of seismic networks. The 31 October 2001 M w 5.0 and 12 June 2005 M w 5.2 Anza mainshocks in southern California occurred in the middle of the densely instrumented ANZA seismic network and thus were unusually well recorded. For the June 2005 event, aftershocks as small as M 0.0 could be observed stretching for at least 50 km along the San Jacinto fault even though the mainshock fault was only &sim;4.5 km long. It was hypothesized that an observed aseismic slipping patch produced a spatially extended aftershock-triggering source, presumably slowing the decay of aftershock density with distance and leading to a broader aftershock zone. We find, however, the decay of aftershock density with distance for both Anza sequences to be similar to that observed elsewhere in California. This indicates there is no need for an additional triggering mechanism and suggests that given widespread dense instrumentation, aftershock sequences would routinely have footprints much larger than currently expected. Despite the large 2005 aftershock zone, we find that the probability that the 2005 Anza mainshock triggered the M 4.9 Yucaipa mainshock, which occurred 4.2 days later and 72 km away, to be only 14%±1%. This probability is a strong function of the time delay; had the earthquakes been separated by only an hour, the probability of triggering would have been 89%.

California↗

USGS2006

Fault parameter constraints using relocated earthquakes: A validation of first-motion focal-mechanism data

We estimate the strike and dip of three California fault segments (Calaveras, Sargent, and a portion of the San Andreas near San Jaun Bautistia) based on principle component analysis of accurately located microearthquakes. We compare these fault orientations with two different first-motion focal mechanism catalogs: the Northern California Earthquake Data Center ( NCEDC ) catalog, calculated using the FPFIT algorithm (Reasenberg and Oppenheimer, 1985), and a catalog created using the HASH algorithm that tests mechanism stability relative to seismic velocity model variations and earthquake location (Hardebeck and Shearer, 2002). We assume any disagreement (misfit >30° in strike, dip, or rake) indicates inaccurate focal mechanisms in the catalogs. With this assumption, we can quantify the parameters that identify the most optimally constrained focal mechanisms. For the NCEDC/FPFIT catalogs, we find that the best quantitative discriminator of quality focal mechanisms is the station distribution ratio ( STDR ) parameter, an indicator of how the stations are distributed about the focal sphere. Requiring STDR > 0.65 increases the acceptable mechanisms from 34%–37% to 63%–68%. This suggests stations should be uniformly distributed surrounding, rather than aligning, known fault traces. For the HASH catalogs, the fault plane uncertainty ( FPU ) parameter is the best discriminator, increasing the percent of acceptable mechanisms from 63%–78% to 81%–83% when FPU ≤ 35°. The overall higher percentage of acceptable mechanisms and the usefulness of the formal uncertainty in identifying quality mechanisms validate the HASH approach of testing for mechanism stability.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2002

Aftershock triggering by complete Coulomb stress changes

We examine the correlation between seismicity rate change following the 1992, M 7.3, Landers, California, earthquake and characteristics of the complete Coulomb failure stress (CFS) changes (ΔCFS( t )) that this earthquake generated. At close distances the time-varying “dynamic” portion of the stress change depends on how the rupture develops temporally and spatially and arises from radiated seismic waves and from permanent coseismic fault displacement. The permanent “static” portion (ΔCFS) depends only on the final coseismic displacement. ΔCFS diminishes much more rapidly with distance than the transient, dynamic stress changes. A common interpretation of the strong correlation between ΔCFS and aftershocks is that load changes can advance or delay failure. Stress changes may also promote failure by physically altering properties of the fault or its environs. Because it is transient, ΔCFS( t ) can alter the failure rate only by the latter means. We calculate both ΔCFS and the maximum positive value of ΔCFS( t ) (peak ΔCFS( t )) using a reflectivity program. Input parameters are constrained by modeling Landers displacement seismograms. We quantify the correlation between maps of seismicity rate changes and maps of modeled ΔCFS and peak ΔCFS( t ) and find agreement for both models. However, rupture directivity, which does not affect ΔCFS, creates larger peak ΔCFS( t ) values northwest of the main shock. This asymmetry is also observed in seismicity rate changes but not in ΔCFS. This result implies that dynamic stress changes are as effective as static stress changes in triggering aftershocks and may trigger earthquakes long after the waves have passed.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2000

Triggering of earthquake aftershocks by dynamic stresses

It is thought that small 'static' stress changes due to permanent fault displacement can alter the likelihood of, or trigger, earthquakes on nearby faults. Many studies of triggering in the nearfield, particularly of aftershocks, rely on these static changes as the triggering agent and consider them only in terms of equivalent changes in the applied load on the fault. Here we report a comparison of the aftershock pattern of the moment magnitude MW = 7.3 Landers earthquake, not only with static stress changes but also with transient, oscillatory stress changes transmitted as seismic waves (that is, 'dynamic' stresses). Dynamic stresses do not permanently change the applied load and thus can trigger earthquakes only by altering the mechanical state or properties of the fault zone. These dynamically weakened faults may fail after the seismic waves have passed by, and might even cause earthquakes that would not otherwise have occurred. We find similar asymmetries in the aftershock and dynamic stress patterns, the latter being due to rupture propagation, whereas the static stress changes lack this asymmetry. Previous studies have shown that dynamic stresses can promote failure at remote distances, but here we show that they can also do so nearby.

Nature↗

USGS1999

The initial subevent of the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake: Is earthquake size predictable?

We examine the initial subevent (ISE) of the M 6.7, 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake in order to discriminate between two end-member rupture initiation models: the ‘preslip’ and ‘cascade’ models. Final earthquake size may be predictable from an ISE's seismic signature in the preslip model but not in the cascade model. In the cascade model ISEs are simply small earthquakes that can be described as purely dynamic ruptures. In this model a large earthquake is triggered by smaller earthquakes; there is no size scaling between triggering and triggered events and a variety of stress transfer mechanisms are possible. Alternatively, in the preslip model, a large earthquake nucleates as an aseismically slipping patch in which the patch dimension grows and scales with the earthquake's ultimate size; the byproduct of this loading process is the ISE. In this model, the duration of the ISE signal scales with the ultimate size of the earthquake, suggesting that nucleation and earthquake size are determined by a more predictable, measurable, and organized process. To distinguish between these two end-member models we use short period seismograms recorded by the Southern California Seismic Network. We address questions regarding the similarity in hypocenter locations and focal mechanisms of the ISE and the mainshock. We also compare the ISE's waveform characteristics to those of small earthquakes and to the beginnings of earthquakes with a range of magnitudes. We find that the focal mechanisms of the ISE and mainshock are indistinguishable, and both events may have nucleated on and ruptured the same fault plane. These results satisfy the requirements for both models and thus do not discriminate between them. However, further tests show the ISE's waveform characteristics are similar to those of typical small earthquakes in the vicinity and more importantly, do not scale with the mainshock magnitude. These results are more consistent with the cascade model.

Journal of Seismology↗

USGS1997

On the origin of diverse aftershock mechanisms following the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake

We test the hypothesis that the origin at the diverse suite of aftershock mechanisms Following the 1989 M 7.1 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake is related to the post-main-shock static stress field We use a 3-D boundary-element algorithm to calculate static stresses combined with a Coulomb failure criterion to calculate conjugate failure planes at aftershock locations. The post-main-shock static stress field is taken as the of a sum of a pre-existing stress field and changes in stress due to the heterogeneous slip across the Loma Prieta rupture plane. The background stress field is assumed to be either a simple shear parallel to the regional trend of the San Andreas fault or approximately fault-normal compression A suite of synthetic aftershock mechanisms from the conjugate failure planes is generated and quantitatively compared (allowing for uncertainties in both mechanism parameters and earthquake locations) to well-constrained mechanisms reported in the US Geological Survey Northern California Seismic Network catalogue. We also compare calculated rakes with those observed by resolving the calculated stress tensor onto observed focal mechanism nodal planes, assuming either plane to be a likely rupture plane.

Geophysical Journal International↗