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David Ziolkowski

Publications and source records attributed to David Ziolkowski.

9 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2025

Foundational science in flight—USGS bird programs support conservation, culture, and a thriving U.S. economy

Birds are vital to our economy, ecosystems, and cultural heritage. Investing in bird conservation benefits communities, businesses, and working lands while reinforcing our nation’s legacy of stewardship and biodiversity. By valuing birds, we ensure a richer, healthier, and more vibrant future for all Americans. The USGS leads two national bird monitoring programs Thriving bird populations contribute over $ 100 billion in related purchases to the U.S. economy annually, helping to support 1.4 million jobs and $ 90 billion in labor-related income. Across our nation, Federal and State wildlife agencies, Flyway Councils, non-governmental organizations, and more consider data from the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Bird Banding Laboratory (BBL) and Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) to be critical to meeting their mandates to set healthy harvest levels and in identifying species of conservation need. However, without stable and sufficient resources for the BBL and BBS, the capacity to monitor and address the rapidly evolving needs of migratory bird populations is at risk, jeopardizing the foundation of collaborative conservation efforts across North America.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2024

Informative priors can account for location uncertainty in stop-level analyses of the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS), allowing fine-scale ecological analyses

Ecological inferences are often based on the locations at which species are present, but many species records have substantial uncertainty in spatial metadata, limiting their utility for fine-scale analyses. This is especially prevalent in historical records such as museum specimens, and in some citizen-science data. For example, the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) has 55+ years of bird data from regular transects (“routes”) across the continent but was not designed to capture the spatial component of point count events, limiting analyses of species-habitat relationships for which it would otherwise be well suited. We present a new methodology for quantifying location uncertainty in BBS records using digitized estimated stop locations, deriving the corresponding environmental covariate uncertainty distributions, and incorporating this information into hierarchical species distribution models using informative Bayesian priors. This approach allows for estimation of species–environment relationships in a way that fully accounts for underlying spatial uncertainty. We quantify stop-location uncertainty in BBS data across the central United States, model bird–land cover relationships in the upper Midwest, and validate our method by comparing posterior land cover estimates to known covariate values for a subset of GPS-digitized stop locations. We provide code for implementing this method in R. Posterior land cover estimates (forest, grass/hay, and developed land cover), based on our informative priors, were highly correlated with known land cover values from GPS-digitized stop locations. Our approach thus makes it possible to responsibly leverage large historic and citizen science databases, such as the BBS, for fine-scale ecological analyses.

Ornithological Applications↗
USGS2020

Migratory behavior and winter geography drive differential range shifts of eastern birds in response to recent climate change

Over the past half century, migratory birds in North America have shown divergent population trends relative to resident species, with the former declining rapidly and the latter increasing. The role that climate change has played in these observed trends is not well understood, despite significant warming over this period. We used 43 y of monitoring data to fit dynamic species distribution models and quantify the rate of latitudinal range shifts in 32 species of birds native to eastern North America. Since the early 1970s, species that remain in North America throughout the year, including both resident and migratory species, appear to have responded to climate change through both colonization of suitable area at the northern leading edge of their breeding distributions and adaption in place at the southern trailing edges. Neotropical migrants, in contrast, have shown the opposite pattern: contraction at their southern trailing edges and no measurable shifts in their northern leading edges. As a result, the latitudinal distributions of temperate-wintering species have increased while the latitudinal distributions of neotropical migrants have decreased. These results raise important questions about the mechanisms that determine range boundaries of neotropical migrants and suggest that these species may be particularly vulnerable to future climate change. Our results highlight the potential importance of climate change during the nonbreeding season in constraining the response of migratory species to temperature changes at both the trailing and leading edges of their breeding distributions. Future research on the interactions between breeding and nonbreeding climate change is urgently needed.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗
USGS2019

Modeling spatially and temporally complex range dynamics when detection is imperfect

Species distributions are determined by the interaction of multiple biotic and abiotic factors, which produces complex spatial and temporal patterns of occurrence. As habitats and climate change due to anthropogenic activities, there is a need to develop species distribution models that can quantify these complex range dynamics. In this paper, we develop a dynamic occupancy model that uses a spatial generalized additive model to estimate non-linear spatial variation in occupancy not accounted for by environmental covariates. The model is flexible and can accommodate data from a range of sampling designs that provide information about both occupancy and detection probability. Output from the model can be used to create distribution maps and to estimate indices of temporal range dynamics. We demonstrate the utility of this approach by modeling long-term range dynamics of 10 eastern North American birds using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. We anticipate this framework will be particularly useful for modeling species’ distributions over large spatial scales and for quantifying range dynamics over long temporal scales.

Scientific Reports↗
USGS2019

Consistency counts: Modeling the effects of a change in protocol on Breeding Bird Survey counts

Analysis of North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data requires controls for factors that influence detectability of birds along survey routes. Identifying factors that influence the counting process and incorporating them into analyses is a primary means of limiting bias in estimates of population change. Twedt (2015) implemented an alternative counting protocol on operational and non-random BBS survey routes in the southeastern United States. Observers on selected routes employed a time-distance protocol in which they recorded birds in 1-minute intervals and in 2 distance categories. We hypothesized that processing and recording observations using this time-distance protocol could cause observers to count fewer birds relative to observers using the standard protocol. We used a hierarchical log-linear model with a categorical covariate associated with protocol (standard vs time-distance) to assess whether use of the time-distance protocol had a measurable effect on counting birds along BBS routes. We applied this model to BBS data from portions of eight states in which the time-distance protocol was implemented and estimated a protocol effect for 167 bird species. We documented a significant overall effect of the time-distance protocol on observers’ counts of birds. On average, the effect of the time-distance protocol was a 10% decline in count, and 80% of species had lower counts when the time-distance protocol was used on a survey route. However, because the time-distance protocol was only used on a small portion of the operational BBS routes and for a limited time, including the covariate for the time-distance protocol data had insignificant effects on analysis of population change. Although the covariate controlled for the effects of the time-distance protocol in BBS data, the results emphasize the importance of standardization as well as a need to track and, if necessary, control in analyses for changes in counting procedures along BBS routes.

The Condor↗
USGS2017

Expanding the North American Breeding Bird Survey analysis to include additional species and regions

The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) contains data for >700 bird species, but analyses often focus on a core group of ∼420 species. We analyzed data for 122 species of North American birds for which data exist in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) database but are not routinely analyzed on the BBS Summary and Analysis Website. Many of these species occur in the northern part of the continent, on routes that fall outside the core survey area presently analyzed in the United States and southern Canada. Other species not historically analyzed occur in the core survey area with very limited data but have large portions of their ranges in Mexico and south. A third group of species not historically analyzed included species thought to be poorly surveyed by the BBS, such as rare, coastal, or nocturnal species. For 56 species found primarily in regions north of the core survey area, we expanded the scope of the analysis, using data from 1993 to 2014 during which ≥3 survey routes had been sampled in 6 northern strata (Bird Conservation regions in Alaska, Yukon, and Newfoundland and Labrador) and fitting log-linear hierarchical models for an augmented BBS survey area that included both the new northern strata and the core survey area. We also applied this model to 168 species historically analyzed in the BBS that had data from these additional northern strata. For both groups of species we calculated survey-wide trends for the both core and augmented survey areas from 1993 to 2014; for species that did not occur in the newly defined strata, we computed trends from 1966 to 2014. We evaluated trend estimates in terms of established credibility criteria for BBS results, screening for imprecise trends, small samples, and low relative abundance. Inclusion of data from the northern strata permitted estimation of trend for 56 species not historically analyzed, but only 4 of these were reasonably monitored and an additional 13 were questionably monitored; 39 of these species were likely poorly monitored because of small numbers of samples or very imprecisely estimated trends. Only 4 of 66 “new” species found in the core survey area were reasonably monitored by the BBS; 20 were questionably monitored; and 42 were likely poorly monitored by the BBS because of inefficiency in precision, abundance, or sample size. The hierarchical analyses we present provide a means for reasonable inclusion of the additional species and strata in a common analysis with data from the core area, a critical step in the evolution of the BBS as a continent-scale survey. We recommend that results be presented both 1) from 1993 to the present using the expanded survey area, and 2) from 1966 to the present for the core survey area. Although most of the “new” species we analyzed were poorly monitored by the BBS during 1993–2014, continued expansion of the BBS will improve the quality of information in future analyses for these species and for the many other species presently monitored by the BBS.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗
USGS2017

How well do route survey areas represent landscapes at larger spatial extents? An analysis of land cover composition along Breeding Bird Survey routes

The occurrence of birds in a survey unit is partly determined by the habitat present. Moreover, some bird species preferentially avoid some land cover types and are attracted to others. As such, land cover composition within the 400 m survey areas along a Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) route clearly influences the species available to be detected. Ideally, to extend survey results to the larger landscape, land cover composition within the survey area should be similar to that at larger spatial extents defining the landscape. Such representativeness helps minimize possible roadside effects (bias), here defined as differences in bird species composition and abundance along a roadside as compared to a larger surrounding landscape. We used land cover data from the 2011 National Land Cover Database to examine representativeness of land cover composition along routes. Using ArcGIS, the percentages of each of 15 land cover types within 400 m buffers along 2,696 U.S. BBS routes were calculated and compared to percentages in 2 km, 5 km, and 10 km buffers surrounding each route. This assessment revealed that aquatic cover types and highly urbanized land tend to be slightly underrepresented in the survey areas. Two anthropogenic cover types (pasture/hay and cropland) may be slightly overrepresented in the survey areas. Over all cover types, 92% of the 2,696 routes exhibited “good” representativeness, with <5 percentage points per cover type difference in proportional cover between the 400 m and 10 km buffers. This assessment further supports previous research indicating that any land-cover-based roadside bias in the bird data of the BBS is likely minimal.

Condor↗
USGS2017

The first 50 years of the North American Breeding Bird Survey

The vision of Chandler (Chan) S. Robbins for a continental-scale omnibus survey of breeding birds led to the development of the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). Chan was uniquely suited to develop the BBS. His position as a government scientist had given him experience with designing and implementing continental-scale surveys, his research background made him an effective advocate of the need for a survey to monitor pesticide effects on birds, and his prominence in the birding community gave him connections to infrastructure—a network of qualified volunteer birders who could conduct roadside surveys with standardized point counts. Having started in the eastern United States and the Atlantic provinces of Canada in 1966, the BBS now provides population change information for ∼546 species in the continental United States and Canada, and recently initiated routes in Mexico promise to greatly expand the areas and species covered by the survey. Although survey protocols have remained unchanged for 50 years, the BBS remains relevant in a changing world. Several papers that follow in this Special Section of The Condor: Ornithological Advances review how the BBS has been applied to conservation assessments, especially in combination with other large-scale survey data. A critical feature of the BBS program is an active research program into field and analytical methods to enhance the quality of the count data and to control for factors that influence detectability. Papers in the Special Section also present advances in BBS analyses that improve the utility of this expanding and sometimes controversial survey. In this Perspective, we introduce the Special Section by reviewing the history of the BBS, describing current analyses, and providing summary trend results for all species, highlighting 3 groups of conservation concern: grassland-breeding birds, aridland-breeding birds, and aerial insectivorous birds.

The Condor↗