Geology topics

David W. Anning

Publications and source records attributed to David W. Anning.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2020

Spatially referenced models of streamflow and nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended-sediment transport in streams of the southwestern United States

Given the predicted imbalance between water supply and demand in the Southwest region of the United States, and the widespread problems with excessive nutrients and suspended sediment, there is a growing need to quantify current streamflow and water quality conditions throughout the region. Furthermore, current monitoring stations exist at a limited number of locations, and many streams lack streamflow and water quality information. SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models were developed for hydrologic conditions representative of 2012 in order to understand how climate, land use, and other landscape characteristics control the yields of water, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and suspended sediment across the Southwest region. The calibration data (mean annual streamflow and loads) for each of the four SPARROW models were based on continuous streamflow and discrete water-quality observations from throughout the region. Explanatory variables for the models consisted of regional datasets representing a range of potential sources of streamflow, nitrogen, phosphorous, and sediment, and processes that control the transport from land to water and attenuate loads within streams and waterbodies. Calibration and explanatory data were referenced to a surface water drainage network that allowed for routing and transport of water and loads through the region. The model results showed that wastewater discharge is the largest contributor to total nitrogen and total phosphorus yield from the Southwest region and forest land is the largest contributor to suspended-sediment yield, but that other sources such as atmospheric nitrogen deposition, agricultural runoff, and runoff from developed land are locally important across the region. The results from this study could complement research and inform water-quality management activities in the Southwest region. Examples might include identifying potentially impaired waterbodies and guiding remediation efforts where impairment has been documented, explaining the spatial patterns in harmful algal blooms, and providing estimates of sediment and nutrient loadings where such data are scarce or non-existent.

Southwestern United States↗

USGS2019

Estimates of long-term mean daily streamflow and annual nutrient and suspended-sediment loads considered for use in regional SPARROW models of the Conterminous United States, 2012 base year

Streamflow, nutrient, and sediment concentration data needed to estimate long-term mean daily streamflow and annual constituent loads were compiled from Federal, State, Tribal, and regional agencies, universities, and nongovernmental organizations. The streamflow and loads are used to develop Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed Attributes (SPARROW) models. SPARROW models help describe the distribution, sources, and transport of streamflow, nutrients, and sediment in streams throughout five regions of the conterminous United States. After the data were screened, approximately 5,200 streamflow, 3,000 sediment, and 3,300 nutrient sites, sampled by 137 agencies and organizations were identified as having suitable data for calculating the long-term mean daily streamflow and annual nutrient and sediment loads required for SPARROW model estimation. These sites are representative of a wide range in terms of watershed size, contaminant source types, and land-use and other important watershed characteristics. The methods used to estimate long-term mean annual loads include the Beale ratio estimator and Fluxmaster regression method with Kalman smoothing.

Conterminous United States↗

USGS2019

Investigation of recent decadal-scale cyclical fluctuations in salinity in the lower Colorado river

Beginning in the late 1970s, 10- to 15-year cyclical oscillations in salinity were observed at lower Colorado River monitoring sites, moving upstream from the international border with Mexico, above Imperial Dam, below Hoover Dam, and at Lees Ferry. The cause of these cyclical trends in salinity was unknown. These salinity cycles complicate the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation's (Reclamation) responsibility for managing salinity in the river for delivery of water to Mexico to meet treaty obligations. This study develops a conceptual model of the salinity cycles from time-series water quality, streamflow, and precipitation data in both the lower and upper Colorado River Basins in order to provide Reclamation the ability to understand, anticipate, and manage future salinity cycles in the lower river. Compared with the Lees Ferry record, both maximum and minimum salinity levels increase downstream by about 25% at Hoover Dam, by about 49% at Imperial Dam, and by about 69% at the northern international boundary with Mexico. In the upper basin, cyclical salinity trends are evident at the outflow of three major tributaries, where salinity is also noted to be inversely related to streamflow. Time series trends in precipitation within the catchments of the three upper basin tributaries indicate cyclical periods with above normal precipitation and periods with below normal precipitation. Periods of greater than normal precipitation in the contributing areas correspond with declines in salinity at the catchment monitoring sites and periods of less than normal precipitation correspond with rising salinity at the sites. Based on the conceptual model developed in this investigation, a multiple linear regression model was developed using a stepwise variable selection procedure to simulate salinity in Lake Powell inflow. Important variables in the explanation of salinity entering Lake Powell include flow from the three upper basin tributaries, seasonality, and mean precipitation in the upper basin, among others. The root mean square error of prediction for the MLR model was 31.48 mg/L (5.7%).

Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, Wyomi↗

USGS2018

Conceptual and numerical models of dissolved solids in the Colorado River, Hoover Dam to Imperial Dam, and Parker Dam to Imperial Dam, Arizona, California, and Nevada

Conceptual and numerical models were developed to understand and simulate monthly flow-weighted dissolved-solids concentrations in the Colorado River at Imperial Dam. The ability to simulate dissolved-solids concentrations at this location will help the Bureau of Reclamation satisfy the binational agreement on the volume and salinity of Colorado River water delivered to Mexico. A robust spatial- and temporal-resolution dataset that consists of river discharge and dissolved-solids concentration and load information between January 1990 and September 2016 for 10 sites on canals, drains, tributaries, and the main stem of the Colorado River between Hoover and Imperial Dams was generated. Daily mean dissolved-solids concentrations were estimated and monthly mean dissolved-solids loads were computed for each site. Spatial and temporal load patterns, and historical and current controls on loads and concentrations, were analyzed in order to develop a conceptual model of dissolved-solids transport between Hoover and Imperial Dams. Two numerical models describing the relations between dissolved-solids concentrations and components controlling dissolved-solids concentrations and loads were developed, calibrated, and verified. Between January 1990 and September 2016, there was a 98.8-million-acre-feet loss of water and a 57.0-million-ton loss of dissolved-solids load from the Colorado River between Hoover and Imperial Dams. Between Hoover and Parker Dams, about 69.0 million acre-feet of water was lost and 51.1 million tons of dissolved solids were lost; between Parker and Imperial Dams, about 29.8 million acre-feet of water was lost and 5.9 million tons of dissolved solids were lost. Water was removed from the river at a relatively consistent rate over the 25-year study period through water transfers to California and Arizona, evapotranspiration from crop irrigation, transpiration processes of riparian vegetation, and evaporation from the river main stem. Dissolved solids were removed from the river between Hoover and Parker Dams at a relatively constant rate through water transfers to California and Arizona, and water pumped from the river for irrigation within the Mohave Valley. A small amount of dissolved solids are gained by the river from inflow from the Bill Williams River. Between Parker and Imperial Dams, however, dissolved solids were not removed from the river at a consistent rate over the study period. Dissolved solids were generally removed from the river from 1990 to 2012, then gained by the river from 2012 to 2015, and then removed from the river from 2015 through 2016. Dissolved solids are assumed to be removed from the river and accumulated within the floodplain sediments and aquifers during irrigation processes; some dissolved solids may also be removed from the river through uptake by crops and riparian vegetation. Dissolved solids accumulated on the landscape and in the floodplain aquifer during irrigation are transported to the river during periods when the hydraulic gradient between the floodplain aquifer and the river is increased, causing a gain in dissolved solids in the river. Dissolved-solids gains in the river occur during periods of relatively low river discharge, such as during the winter months and during drier climatic conditions. Two numerical models were developed and coefficients were estimated by using data from a May 2008-September 2016 calibration period. One model simulates concentrations at Imperial Dam based on the Colorado River system downstream from Parker Dam, and the other model simulates concentrations at Imperial Dam based on the Colorado River system downstream from Hoover Dam. Both models simulated monthly flow-weighted concentrations of dissolved solids for the Colorado River at Imperial Dam, which corresponded well with observed concentrations for the entire study period. The models are more sensitive to input variables of monthly discharge of the Colorado River below Parker Dam and monthly flow-weighted dissolved-solids concentrations of the Colorado River below Hoover Dam and Parker Dam than to the rate of change in concentration with respect to time and the combined discharge of the Colorado River Indian Reservation Main Canal and the Palo Verde Canal. The calibrated models can be used to run scenarios of future monthly flow-weighted dissolved-solids concentrations in the Colorado River at Imperial Dam. Although the models are expected to provide concentration estimates within 18 milligrams per liter (Parker Dam to Imperial Dam model) to 22 milligrams per liter (Hoover Dam to Imperial Dam model), 95 percent of the time, the error of future scenarios increases as uncertainty in the estimated future input variables increases.

Arizona, California, Nevada↗

USGS2018

Brackish groundwater and its potential as a resource in the southwestern United States

Secure, reliable, and sustainable water resources are fundamental to food production, energy independence, and the health of humans and ecosystems. But the large-scale development of fresh groundwater resources has stressed aquifers in some areas, causing declines in the amount of groundwater in storage and decreases in discharge to surface-water bodies like rivers and springs (Reilly and others, 2008). In some parts of the southwestern United States, the water supply is not adequate to meet demand without substantial effects on groundwater storage or surface discharge, and severe drought intensifies the stresses affecting water resources. In support of the national census of water resources, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) completed the national brackish groundwater assessment to provide information about brackish groundwater as a potential resource to augment or replace freshwater supplies (Stanton and others, 2017). The objectives of the brackish groundwater assessment were to consolidate available data into a comprehensive database of brackish groundwater resources in the United States and to produce a summary report about the distribution, physical and chemical characteristics, and use of brackish groundwater. This fact sheet summarizes the occurrence of brackish groundwater and factors affecting its usability in the southwestern United States (specifically the Southwest Basins region) reported for the national study. The map below (fig. 1) summarizes the brackish zones for the five largest principal aquifers within the southwestern United States, along with groundwater resources in the remaining part of the region (Reilly and others, 2008).

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2018

Managing salinity in Upper Colorado River Basin streams: Selecting catchments for sediment control efforts using watershed characteristics and random forests models

Elevated concentrations of dissolved-solids (salinity) including calcium, sodium, sulfate, and chloride, among others, in the Colorado River cause substantial problems for its water users. Previous efforts to reduce dissolved solids in upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) streams often focused on reducing suspended-sediment transport to streams, but few studies have investigated the relationship between suspended sediment and salinity, or evaluated which watershed characteristics might be associated with this relationship. Are there catchment properties that may help in identifying areas where control of suspended sediment will also reduce salinity transport to streams? A random forests classification analysis was performed on topographic, climate, land cover, geology, rock chemistry, soil, and hydrologic information in 163 UCRB catchments. Two random forests models were developed in this study: one for exploring stream and catchment characteristics associated with stream sites where dissolved solids increase with increasing suspended-sediment concentration, and the other for predicting where these sites are located in unmonitored reaches. Results of variable importance from the exploratory random forests models indicate that no simple source, geochemical process, or transport mechanism can easily explain the relationship between dissolved solids and suspended sediment concentrations at UCRB monitoring sites. Among the most important watershed characteristics in both models were measures of soil hydraulic conductivity, soil erodibility, minimum catchment elevation, catchment area, and the silt component of soil in the catchment. Predictions at key locations in the basin were combined with observations from selected monitoring sites, and presented in map-form to give a complete understanding of where catchment sediment control practices would also benefit control of dissolved solids in streams.

Upper Colorado River Basin↗

USGS2017

Brackish groundwater in the United States

For some parts of the Nation, large-scale development of groundwater has caused decreases in the amount of groundwater that is present in aquifer storage and that discharges to surface-water bodies. Water supply in some areas, particularly in arid and semiarid regions, is not adequate to meet demand, and severe drought is affecting large parts of the United States. Future water demand is projected to heighten the current stress on groundwater resources. This combination of factors has led to concerns about the availability of freshwater to meet domestic, agricultural, industrial, mining, and environmental needs. To ensure the water security of the Nation, currently [2016] untapped water sources may need to be developed. Brackish groundwater is an unconventional water source that may offer a partial solution to current and future water demands. In support of the national census of water resources, the U.S. Geological Survey completed the national brackish groundwater assessment to better understand the occurrence and characteristics of brackish groundwater in the United States as a potential water resource. Analyses completed as part of this assessment relied on previously collected data from multiple sources; no new data were collected. Compiled data included readily available information about groundwater chemistry, horizontal and vertical extents and hydrogeologic characteristics of principal aquifers (regionally extensive aquifers or aquifer systems that have the potential to be used as a source of potable water), and groundwater use. Although these data were obtained from a wide variety of sources, the compiled data are biased toward shallow and fresh groundwater resources; data representing groundwater that is at great depths and is saline were not as readily available. One of the most important contributions of this assessment is the creation of a database containing chemical characteristics and aquifer information for the known areas with brackish groundwater in the United States. Previously published digital data relating to brackish groundwater resources were limited to a small number of State- and regional-level studies. Data sources for this assessment ranged from single publications to large datasets and from local studies to national assessments. Geochemical data included concentrations of dissolved solids, major ions, trace elements, nutrients, and radionuclides as well as physical properties of the water (pH, temperature, and specific conductance). Additionally, the database provides selected well information (location, yield, depth, and contributing aquifer) necessary for evaluating the water resource. The assessment was divided into national-, regional-, and aquifer-scale analyses. National-scale analyses included evaluation of the three-dimensional distribution of observed dissolved-solids concentrations in groundwater, the three-dimensional probability of brackish groundwater occurrence, and the geochemical characteristics of saline (greater than or equal to 1,000 mg/L of dissolved solids) groundwater resources. Regional-scale analyses included a summary of the percentage of observed grid cell volume in the region that was occupied by brackish groundwater within the mixture of air, water, and rock for multiple depth intervals. Aquifer-scale analyses focused primarily on four regions that contained the largest amounts of observed brackish groundwater and included a generalized description of hydrogeologic characteristics from previously published work; the distribution of dissolved-solids concentrations; considerations for developing brackish groundwater resources, including a summary of other chemical characteristics that may limit the use of brackish groundwater and the ability of sampled wells producing brackish groundwater to yield useful amounts of water; and the amount of saline groundwater being used in 2010.

Professional Paper↗

USGS2015

Chemical considerations for an updated National assessment of brackish groundwater resources

Brackish groundwater (BGW) is increasingly used for water supplies where fresh water is scarce, but the distribution and availability of such resources have not been characterized at the national scale in the United States since the 1960s. Apart from its distribution and accessibility, BGW usability is a function of the chemical requirements of the intended use, chemical characteristics of the resource, and treatment options to make the resource compatible with the use. Here, we discuss relations between these three chemical factors using national-scale examples and local case studies. In a preliminary compilation of BGW data in the United States, five water types accounted for the major-ion composition of 70% of samples. PHREEQC calculations indicate that 57–77% of samples were oversaturated with respect to barite, calcite, or chalcedony. In the study, 5–14% of samples had concentrations of arsenic, fluoride, nitrate, or uranium that exceeded drinking-water standards. In case studies of the potential use of BGW for drinking water, irrigation, and hydraulic fracturing, PHREEQC simulations of a hypothetical treatment process resembling reverse osmosis (RO) showed that BGW had the potential to form various assemblages of mineral deposits (scale) during treatment that could adversely affect RO membranes. Speciation calculations showed that most boron in the irrigation example occurred as boric acid, which has relatively low removal efficiency by RO. Results of this preliminary study indicate that effective national or regional assessments of BGW resources should include geochemical characterizations that are guided in part by specific use and treatment requirements.

Groundwater↗

USGS2015

Regional scale estimates of baseflow and factors influencing baseflow in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Study region The study region encompasses the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), which provides water for 40 million people and is a vital part of the water supply in the western U.S. Study focus Groundwater and surface water can be considered a single water resource and thus it is important to understand groundwater contributions to streamflow, or baseflow, within a region. Previously, quantification of baseflow using chemical mass balance at large numbers of sites was not possible because of data limitations. A new method using regression-derived daily specific conductance values with conductivity mass balance hydrograph separation allows for baseflow estimation at sites across large regions. This method was applied to estimate baseflow discharge at 229 sites across the UCRB. Subsequently, climate, soil, topography, and land cover characteristics were statistically evaluated using principal component analysis (PCA) to determine their influence on baseflow discharge. New hydrological insights for the region Results suggest that approximately half of the streamflow in the UCRB is baseflow derived from groundwater discharge to streams. Higher baseflow yields typically occur in upper elevation areas of the UCRB. PCA identified precipitation, snow, sand content of soils, elevation, land surface slope, percent grasslands, and percent natural barren lands as being positively correlated with baseflow yield; whereas temperature, potential evapotranspiration, silt and clay content of soils, percent agriculture, and percent shrublands were negatively correlated with baseflow yield.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2015

The quality of our Nation's waters: Water quality in basin-fill aquifers of the southwestern United States: Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah, 1993-2009

The Southwest Principal Aquifers consist of many basin-fill aquifers in California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado. Demands for irrigation and drinking water have substantially increased groundwater withdrawals and irrigation return flow to some of these aquifers. These changes have increased the movement of contaminants from geologic and human sources to depths used to supply drinking water in several basin-fill aquifers in the Southwest.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,↗

USGS2015

Geospatial datasets for assessing the effects of rangeland conditions on dissolved-solids yields in the Upper Colorado River Basin

In 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed a Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed Attributes (SPARROW) surface-water quality model for the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) relating dissolved-solids sources and transport in the 1991 water year to upstream catchment characteristics. The SPARROW model focused on geologic and agricultural sources of dissolved solids in the UCRB and was calibrated using water-year 1991 dissolved-solids loads from 218 monitoring sites. A new UCRB SPARROW model is planned that will update the investigation of dissolved-solids sources and transport in the basin to circa 2010 conditions and will improve upon the 2009 model by incorporating more detailed information about agricultural-irrigation and rangeland-management practices, among other improvements. Geospatial datasets relating to circa 2010 rangeland conditions are required for the new UCRB SPARROW modeling effort. This study compiled geospatial datasets for the UCRB that relate to the biotic alterations and rangeland conditions of grazing, fire and other land disturbance, and vegetation type and cover. Datasets representing abiotic alterations of access control (off-highway vehicles) and sediment generation and transport in general, were also compiled. These geospatial datasets may be tested in the upcoming SPARROW model to better understand the potential contribution of rangelands to dissolved-solids loading in UCRB streams.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2014

A data reconnaissance on the effect of suspended-sediment concentrations on dissolved-solids concentrations in rivers and tributaries in the Upper Colorado River Basin

The Colorado River is one of the most important sources of water in the western United States, supplying water to over 35 million people in the U.S. and 3 million people in Mexico. High dissolved-solids loading to the River and tributaries are derived primarily from geologic material deposited in inland seas in the mid-to-late Cretaceous Period, but this loading may be increased by human activities. High dissolved solids in the River causes substantial damages to users, primarily in reduced agricultural crop yields and corrosion. The Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Program was created to manage dissolved-solids loading to the River and has focused primarily on reducing irrigation-related loading from agricultural areas. This work presents a reconnaissance of existing data from sites in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) in order to highlight areas where suspended-sediment control measures may be useful in reducing dissolved-solids concentrations. Multiple linear regression was used on data from 164 sites in the UCRB to develop dissolved-solids models that include combinations of explanatory variables of suspended sediment, flow, and time. Results from the partial t -test, overall likelihood ratio, and partial likelihood ratio on the models were used to group the sites into categories of strong, moderate, weak, and no-evidence of a relation between suspended-sediment and dissolved-solids concentrations. Results show 68 sites have strong or moderate evidence of a relation, with drainage areas for many of these sites composed of a large percentage of clastic sedimentary rocks. These results could assist water managers in the region in directing field-scale evaluation of suspended-sediment control measures to reduce UCRB dissolved-solids loading.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2014

Updated estimates of long-term average dissolved-solids loading in streams and rivers of the Upper Colorado River Basin

The Colorado River and its tributaries supply water to more than 35 million people in the United States and 3 million people in Mexico, irrigating over 4.5 million acres of farmland, and annually generating about 12 billion kilowatt hours of hydroelectric power. The Upper Colorado River Basin, part of the Colorado River Basin, encompasses more than 110,000 mi 2 and is the source of much of more than 9 million tons of dissolved solids that annually flows past the Hoover Dam. High dissolved-solids concentrations in the river are the cause of substantial economic damages to users, primarily in reduced agricultural crop yields and corrosion, with damages estimated to be greater than 300 million dollars annually. In 1974, the Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Act created the Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Program to investigate and implement a broad range of salinity control measures. A 2009 study by the U.S. Geological Survey, supported by the Salinity Control Program, used the Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed Attributes surface-water quality model to examine dissolved-solids supply and transport within the Upper Colorado River Basin. Dissolved-solids loads developed for 218 monitoring sites were used to calibrate the 2009 Upper Colorado River Basin Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed Attributes dissolved-solids model. This study updates and develops new dissolved-solids loading estimates for 323 Upper Colorado River Basin monitoring sites using streamflow and dissolved-solids concentration data through 2012, to support a planned Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed Attributes modeling effort that will investigate the contributions to dissolved-solids loads from irrigation and rangeland practices.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2014

Dissolved-solids sources, loads, yields, and concentrations in streams of the conterminous United States

Recent studies have shown that excessive dissolved-solids concentrations in water can have adverse effects on the environment and on agricultural, domestic, municipal, and industrial water users. Such effects motivated the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water Quality Assessment Program to develop a SPAtially-Referenced Regression on Watershed Attributes (SPARROW) model that has improved the understanding of sources, loads, yields, and concentrations of dissolved solids in streams of the conterminous United States. Using the SPARROW model, long-term mean annual dissolved-solids loads from 2,560 water-quality monitoring stations were statistically related to several spatial datasets that are surrogates for dissolved-solids sources and land-to-water delivery processes. Specifically, sources in the model included variables representing geologic materials, road deicers, urban lands, cultivated lands, and pasture lands. Transport of dissolved solids from these sources was modulated by land-to-water delivery variables that represent precipitation, streamflow, soil, vegetation, terrain, population, irrigation, and artificial drainage characteristics. Where appropriate, the load estimates, source variables, and transport variables were statistically adjusted to represent conditions for the base year 2000. The nonlinear least-squares estimated SPARROW model was used to predict long-term mean annual conditions for dissolved-solids sources, loads, yields, and concentrations in a digital hydrologic network representing nearly 66,000 stream reaches and their corresponding incremental catchments that drain the Nation. Nationwide, the predominant source of dissolved solids yielded from incremental catchments and delivered to local streams is geologic materials in 89 percent of the catchments, road deicers in 5 percent of the catchments, pasture lands in 3 percent of the catchments, urban lands in 2 percent of the catchments, and cultivated lands in 1 percent of the catchments. Whereas incremental catchments with dissolved solids that originated predominantly from geologic sources or from urban lands are found across much of the Nation, incremental catchments with dissolved solids yields that originated predominantly from road deicers are largely found in the Northeast, and incremental catchments with dissolved solids that originated predominantly from cultivated or pasture lands are largely found in the West. The total amount of dissolved solids delivered to the Nation’s streams is 271.9 million metric tons (Mt) annually, of which 194.2 million Mt (71.4%) come from geologic sources, 37.7 million Mt (13.9%) come from road deicers, 18.2 million Mt (6.7%) come from pasture lands, 13.9 million Mt (5.1%) come from urban lands, and 7.9 million Mt (2.9%) come from cultivated lands. Nationwide, the median incremental-catchment yield delivered to local streams is 26 metric tons per year per square kilometer [(Mt/yr)/km 2 ]. Ten percent of the incremental catchments yield less than 4 (Mt/yr)/km 2 , and 10 percent yield more than 90 (Mt/yr)/km 2 . Incremental-catchment yields greater than 50 (Mt/yr)/km 2 mostly occur along the northern part of the West Coast and in a crescent shaped band south of the Great Lakes. For example, the median incremental-catchment yield is 81 (Mt/yr)/km 2 for the Great Lakes, 78 (Mt/yr)/km 2 for the Ohio, and 74 (Mt/yr)/km 2 for the Upper Mississippi water-resources regions. Incremental-catchment yields less than 10 (Mt/yr)/km 2 mostly occur in a wide band across the arid lowland of the interior West that excludes areas along the coast and the extensive, higher mountain ranges. For example, the median incremental-catchment yield is 3 (Mt/yr)/km 2 for the Lower Colorado, 5 (Mt/yr)/km 2 for the Rio Grande, and 8 (Mt/yr)/km 2 for the Great Basin water-resources regions. Predicted incremental loads were cascaded down through the reach network, with loads accumulating from reach to reach. For most stream reaches, the entire incremental load of dissolved solids delivered to the reach was transported to either the ocean or to one of the large streams flowing along the U.S. international boundary without losses occurring along the way. The exceptions to this include streams in the southwestern part of the country, such as the Colorado River, Rio Grande, and streams of internally drained drainages in the Great Basin, where dissolved-solids loads decreased through streamflow diversion for off-stream use, or by infiltration through the streambed. Long-term mean annual flow-weighted concentrations were derived from the predicted accumulated-load and stream-discharge data. Widespread low concentrations, generally less than 100 milligrams per liter (mg/L), occur in many reaches of the New England, South Atlantic-Gulf, and Pacific Northwest water-resources regions as a result of moderate dissolved-solids yields and high runoff rates. Widespread moderate concentrations, generally between 100 and 500 mg/L, occur in many reaches of the Great Lakes, Ohio, and Upper Mississippi River water-resources regions. Whereas dissolved-solids yields are generally high in these regions, runoff rates are also high, which helps moderate concentrations in these regions. Widespread higher concentrations, generally greater than 500 mg/L, occur across a belt of reaches that extends almost continuously from Canada to Mexico in the Midwest, cutting through the Souris-Red-Rainy, Missouri, Arkansas-White-Red, Texas-Gulf, and Rio Grande water-resources regions. Although dissolved-solids yields are moderate to low in these areas, low runoff rates result in the high concentrations for these areas. In 12.6 percent of the Nation’s stream reaches, predicted concentrations of dissolved solids exceed 500 mg/L, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s secondary, nonenforceable drinking water standard. While this standard provides a metric for evaluating predicted concentrations in the context of drinking-water supplies, it should be noted that it only applies to drinking water actually served to customers by water utilities, and it does not apply to all stream reaches in the Nation nor does it apply during times when water is not being withdrawn for use. Exceedance of 500 mg/L is more pronounced in certain water-resources regions than others. For example, about half of the reaches in the Souris-Red-Rainy region have concentrations predicted to exceed 500 mg/L, and between 25 and 37 percent of the reaches in the Missouri, Arkansas-White-Red, Texas-Gulf, Rio Grande, and Lower Colorado regions are predicted to exceed 500 mg/L. Development of stream-load data for use in the SPARROW model also provided long-term temporal trend information in dissolved-solids concentrations at the monitoring stations for their period of record, which was constrained between 1980 and 2009. For the 2,560 monitoring stations used in this study, long-term trends in flow-adjusted dissolved-solids concentrations increased over time at 23 percent of the stations, decreased at 18 percent of the stations, and did not change over time at 59 percent of the stations. Long-term trends show a strong regional spatial pattern where from the western parts of the Great Plains to the West Coast, concentrations mostly either did not change or decreased over time, and from the eastern parts of the Great Plains to the East Coast, concentrations mostly either did not change or increased over time. Results from the trend analysis and from the SPARROW model indicate that, compared to monitoring stations with no trends or decreasing trends, stations with increasing trends are associated with a smaller percentage of the predicted dissolved-solids load originating from geologic sources, and a larger percentage originating from urban lands and road deicers. Conversely, compared to stations with increasing trends or no trends, stations with decreasing trends have a larger percentage of the predicted dissolved-solids load originating from geologic sources and a smaller percentage originating from urban lands and road deicers. Stations with decreasing trends also have larger percentages of predicted dissolved-solids load originating from cultivated lands and pasture lands, compared to stations with increasing trends or no trends.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2012

Digital spatial data for observed, predicted, and misclassification errors for observations in the training dataset for nitrate and arsenic concentrations in basin-fill aquifers in the Southwest Principal Aquifers study area

This product "Digital spatial data for observed, predicted, and misclassification errors for observations in the training dataset for nitrate and arsenic concentrations in basin-fill aquifers in the Southwest Principal Aquifers study area" is a 1:250,000-scale point spatial dataset developed as part of a regional Southwest Principal Aquifers (SWPA) study (Anning and others, 2012). The study examined the vulnerability of basin-fill aquifers in the southwestern United States to nitrate contamination and arsenic enrichment. Statistical models were developed by using the random forest classifier algorithm to predict concentrations of nitrate and arsenic across a model grid that represents local- and basin-scale measures of source, aquifer susceptibility, and geochemical conditions.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New ↗

USGS2012

Digital spatial data for predicted nitrate and arsenic concentrations in basin-fill aquifers of the Southwest Principal Aquifers study area

This product "Digital spatial data for predicted nitrate and arsenic concentrations in basin-fill aquifers of the Southwest Principal Aquifers study area" is a 1:250,000-scale vector spatial dataset developed as part of a regional Southwest Principal Aquifers (SWPA) study (Anning and others, 2012). The study examined the vulnerability of basin-fill aquifers in the southwestern United States to nitrate contamination and arsenic enrichment. Statistical models were developed by using the random forest classifier algorithm to predict concentrations of nitrate and arsenic across a model grid that represents local- and basin-scale measures of source, aquifer susceptibility, and geochemical conditions.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New ↗

USGS2012

Maps of estimated nitrate and arsenic concentrations in basin-fill aquifers of the southwestern United States

Human-health concerns and economic considerations associated with meeting drinking-water standards motivated a study of the vulnerability of basin-fill aquifers to nitrate contamination and arsenic enrichment in the southwestern United States. Statistical models were developed by using the random forest classifier algorithm to predict concentrations of nitrate and arsenic across a model grid representing about 190,600 square miles of basin-fill aquifers in parts of Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. The statistical models, referred to as classifiers, reflect natural and human-related factors that affect aquifer vulnerability to contamination and relate nitrate and arsenic concentrations to explanatory variables representing local- and basin-scale measures of source and aquifer susceptibility conditions. Geochemical variables were not used in concentration predictions because they were not available for the entire study area. The models were calibrated to assess model accuracy on the basis of measured values. Only 2 percent of the area underlain by basin-fill aquifers in the study area was predicted to equal or exceed the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency drinking-water standard for nitrate as N (10 milligrams per liter), whereas 43 percent of the area was predicted to equal or exceed the standard for arsenic (10 micrograms per liter). Areas predicted to equal or exceed the drinking-water standard for nitrate include basins in central Arizona near Phoenix; the San Joaquin Valley, the Santa Ana Inland, and San Jacinto Basins of California; and the San Luis Valley of Colorado. Much of the area predicted to equal or exceed the drinking-water standard for arsenic is within a belt of basins along the western portion of the Basin and Range Physiographic Province that includes almost all of Nevada and parts of California and Arizona. Predicted nitrate and arsenic concentrations are substantially lower than the drinking-water standards in much of the study area-about 93 percent of the area underlain by basin-fill aquifers was less than one-half the standard for nitrate as N (5.0 milligrams per liter), and 50 percent was less than one-half the standard for arsenic (5.0 micrograms per liter). The predicted concentrations and the improved understanding of the susceptibility and vulnerability of southwestern basin-fill aquifers to nitrate contamination and arsenic enrichment can be used by water managers as a qualitative tool to assess and protect the quality of groundwater resources in the Southwest.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New ↗

USGS2012

Predicted nitrate and arsenic concentrations in basin-fill aquifers of the Southwestern United States

The National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting a regional analysis of water quality in the principal aquifer systems across the United States. The Southwest Principal Aquifers (SWPA) study is building a better understanding of the susceptibility and vulnerability of basin-fill aquifers in the region to groundwater contamination by synthesizing baseline knowledge of groundwater-quality conditions in 16 basins previously studied by the NAWQA Program. The improved understanding of aquifer susceptibility and vulnerability to contamination is assisting in the development of tools that water managers can use to assess and protect the quality of groundwater resources. Human-health concerns and economic considerations associated with meeting drinking-water standards motivated a study of the vulnerability of basin-fill aquifers to nitrate contamination and arsenic enrichment in the southwestern United States. Statistical models were developed by using the random forest classifier algorithm to predict concentrations of nitrate and arsenic across a model grid that represents about 190,600 square miles of basin-fill aquifers in parts of Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. The statistical models, referred to as classifiers, reflect natural and human-related factors that affect aquifer vulnerability to contamination and relate nitrate and arsenic concentrations to explanatory variables representing local- and basin-scale measures of source, aquifer susceptibility, and geochemical conditions. The classifiers were unbiased and fit the observed data well, and misclassifications were primarily due to statistical sampling error in the training datasets. The classifiers were designed to predict concentrations to be in one of six classes for nitrate, and one of seven classes for arsenic. Each classification scheme allowed for identification of areas with concentrations that were equal to or exceeding the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency drinking-water standard. Whereas 2.4 percent of the area underlain by basin-fill aquifers in the study area was predicted to equal or exceed this standard for nitrate (10 milligrams per liter as N; mg/L), 42.7 percent was predicted to equal or exceed the standard for arsenic (10 micrograms per liter; μg/L). Areas predicted to equal or exceed the drinking-water standard for nitrate include basins in central Arizona near Phoenix; the San Joaquin, Inland, and San Jacinto basins of California; and the San Luis Valley of Colorado. Much of the area predicted to equal or exceed the drinking-water standard for arsenic is within a belt of basins along the western portion of the Basin and Range Physiographic Province in Nevada, California, and Arizona. Predicted nitrate and arsenic concentrations are substantially lower than the drinking-water standards in much of the study area—about 93.0 percent of the area underlain by basin-fill aquifers was less than one-half the standard for nitrate (5.0 mg/L), and 50.2 percent was less than one-half the standard for arsenic (5.0 μg/L).

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,↗