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David P. Schwartz

Publications and source records attributed to David P. Schwartz.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2011

Fault displacement hazard for strike-slip faults

In this paper we present a methodology, data, and regression equations for calculating the fault rupture hazard at sites near steeply dipping, strike-slip faults. We collected and digitized on-fault and off-fault displacement data for 9 global strikeslip earthquakes ranging from moment magnitude M 6.5 to M 7.6 and supplemented these with displacements from 13 global earthquakes compiled byWesnousky (2008), who considers events up to M 7.9. Displacements on the primary fault fall off at the rupture ends and are often measured in meters, while displacements on secondary (offfault) or distributed faults may measure a few centimeters up to more than a meter and decay with distance from the rupture. Probability of earthquake rupture is less than 15% for cells 200 m??200 m and is less than 2% for 25 m??25 m cells at distances greater than 200mfrom the primary-fault rupture. Therefore, the hazard for off-fault ruptures is much lower than the hazard near the fault. Our data indicate that rupture displacements up to 35cm can be triggered on adjacent faults at distances out to 10kmor more from the primary-fault rupture. An example calculation shows that, for an active fault which has repeated large earthquakes every few hundred years, fault rupture hazard analysis should be an important consideration in the design of structures or lifelines that are located near the principal fault, within about 150 m of well-mapped active faults with a simple trace and within 300 m of faults with poorly defined or complex traces.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2011

A paleoseismic study along the central Denali Fault, Chistochina Glacier area, south-central Alaska

In the Chistochina Glacier area of south-central Alaska, the active trace of the Denali fault is well defined by prominent tectonic geomorphology, including scarps, grabens, and mole tracks associated with the 2002 Mw=7.9 Denali fault earthquake. Interpretation of a trench excavated across the 2002 rupture trace places a constraint on the timing of the penultimate earthquake to after 550 to 660 yr before 2002, consis- tent with other paleoseismic studies along the central Denali fault. Field measurement of offset moraine deposits and use of existing geochronologic data is the basis to estimate a minimum latest Pleistocene slip rate of 8–14 mm/yr.

Alaska↗
USGS2010

Normal-faulting slip maxima and stress-drop variability: A geological perspective

We present an empirical estimate of maximum slip in continental normal-faulting earthquakes and present evidence that stress drop in intraplate extensional environments is dependent on fault maturity. A survey of reported slip in historical earthquakes globally and in latest Quaternary paleoearthquakes in the Western Cordillera of the United States indicates maximum vertical displacements as large as 6–6.5 m. A difference in the ratio of maximum-to-mean displacements between data sets of prehistoric and historical earthquakes, together with constraints on bias in estimates of mean paleodisplacement, suggest that applying a correction factor of 1.4±0.3 to the largest observed displacement along a paleorupture may provide a reasonable estimate of the maximum displacement. Adjusting the largest paleodisplacements in our regional data set (∼6 m) by a factor of 1.4 yields a possible upper-bound vertical displacement for the Western Cordillera of about 8.4 m, although a smaller correction factor may be more appropriate for the longest ruptures. Because maximum slip is highly localized along strike, if such large displacements occur, they are extremely rare. Static stress drop in surface-rupturing earthquakes in the Western Cordillera, as represented by maximum reported displacement as a fraction of modeled rupture length, appears to be larger on normal faults with low cumulative geologic displacement (<2 km) and larger in regions such as the Rocky Mountains, where immature, low-throw faults are concentrated. This conclusion is consistent with a growing recognition that structural development influences stress drop and indicates that this influence is significant enough to be evident among faults within a single intraplate environment.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2010

Earthquakes of the Holocene

Geologic studies of earthquakes involve mapping of coseismic surface faulting and secondary deformation from historical events, trenching and geomorphic analysis to define the timing and size of past earthquakes, and investigations of fault zone structure and geometry in both unconsolidated sediments and bedrock. This research is now being referred to as paleoseismology, seismic geology, and earthquake geology. Since the mid-1970s, it has led to some of the most exciting and important contributions to the understanding of earthquake behavior in space and time [Hanks, 1985; Allen, 1986]. The present report is the first of what is hoped will become a regularly contributed summary of the geologic aspects of the study of earthquakes.

Reviews of Geophysics↗
USGS2008

Tectonic position and geological manifestations of the Mogod (Central Mongolia), January 5, 1967, earthquake (a view after 40 years)

The earthquake source, reaching the surface in the form of an extended system of faults, encompassed the N-S and NW-SE planes of two large faults near their juncture zone. A revised seismotectonic study of the system of coseismic ruptures performed after many years revealed a complex structure of primary coseismic ruptures in the juncture area of fault branches of different directions. In addition to the two major faults, the juncture zone consists of intersecting or parallel branches of both structural directions. The trench study and detailed mapping of the shallow structure of the seismic rupture characterizes it as a right-lateral-thrust fault on the N-S branch and a strike-slip-reverse fault on the NW-SE branch. Results of our paleoseismogeological study indicate that equally strong earthquakes are likely to have occurred in the same seismic source in the past (about 8000 and 160 years ago). ?? Pleiades Publishing, Ltd. 2008.

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth↗
USGS2008

Probabilistic seismic hazard in the San Francisco Bay area based on a simplified viscoelastic cycle model of fault interactions

We construct a viscoelastic cycle model of plate boundary deformation that includes the effect of time-dependent interseismic strain accumulation, coseismic strain release, and viscoelastic relaxation of the substrate beneath the seismogenic crust. For a given fault system, time-averaged stress changes at any point (not on a fault) are constrained to zero; that is, kinematic consistency is enforced for the fault system. The dates of last rupture, mean recurrence times, and the slip distributions of the (assumed) repeating ruptures are key inputs into the viscoelastic cycle model. This simple formulation allows construction of stress evolution at all points in the plate boundary zone for purposes of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Stress evolution is combined with a Coulomb failure stress threshold at representative points on the fault segments to estimate the times of their respective future ruptures. In our PSHA we consider uncertainties in a four-dimensional parameter space: the rupture peridocities, slip distributions, time of last earthquake (for prehistoric ruptures) and Coulomb failure stress thresholds. We apply this methodology to the San Francisco Bay region using a recently determined fault chronology of area faults. Assuming single-segment rupture scenarios, we find that fature rupture probabilities of area faults in the coming decades are the highest for the southern Hayward, Rodgers Creek, and northern Calaveras faults. This conclusion is qualitatively similar to that of Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, but the probabilities derived here are significantly higher. Given that fault rupture probabilities are highly model-dependent, no single model should be used to assess to time-dependent rupture probabilities. We suggest that several models, including the present one, be used in a comprehensive PSHA methodology, as was done by Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2008

The Hayward Fault— Is it due for a repeat of the powerful 1868 earthquake?

On October 21, 1868, a magnitude 6.8 earthquake struck the San Francisco Bay region. Although the region was then sparsely populated, this quake on the Hayward Fault was one of the most destructive in California's history. Recent studies show that such powerful Hayward Fault quakes have repeatedly jolted the region in the past. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists describe this fault as a tectonic time bomb, due anytime for another magnitude 6.8 to 7.0 earthquake. Because such a quake could cause hundreds of deaths, leave thousands homeless, and devastate the region's economy, the USGS and other organizations are working together with new urgency to help prepare Bay Area communities for this certain future quake.

California↗
USGS2006

Paleoseismic observations of an onshore transform boundary: The Magallanes-Fagnano fault, Tierra del Fuego, Argentina

We present preliminary information on the geomorphologic features and paleoseismic record associated with the ruptures of two Ms 7.8 earthquakes that struck Tierra del Fuego and the southernmost continental margin of South America on December 17, 1949. The fault scarp was surveyed in several places cast of Lago Fagnano and a trench across a secondary fault trace of the Magallanes-Fagnano fault was excavated at the Ri??o San Pablo. The observed deformation in a 9 kyr-old peat bog sequence suggests evidence for two, and possibly three pre-1949 paleoearthquakes is preserved in the stratigraphy. The scarp reaches heights up to 11 m in late Pleistocene-Holocence(?) deposits, but the vertical component of the 1949 events was always less than ???1 m. This observation also argues for the occurrence of previous events during the Quaternary. Along die part of the fault we investigated east of Lago Fagnano, the horizontal component of the 1949 rupture does not exceed 4 m and is likely lower than 0.4 m, which is consistent with the kinematics of a local releasing bend, or at the end of a strike-slip rupture zone. ?? 2006 Revista de la Asociacio??n Geolo??gica Argentina.

Revista de la Asociacion Geologica Argentina↗
USGS2005

Dating offset fans along the Mojave section of the San Andreas fault using cosmogenic 26Al and 10Be

Analysis of cosmogenic 10Be and 26Al in samples collected from exposed boulders (n = 20) and from buried sediment (n = 3) from offset fans along the San Andreas fault near Little Rock, California, yielded ages, ranging from 16 to 413 ka, which increase with distance from their source at the mouth of Little Rock Creek. In order to determine the age of the relatively younger fans, the erosion rate of the boulders and the cosmogenic nuclide inheritance from exposure prior to deposition in the fan were established. Cosmogenic nuclide inheritance values that range between 8.5 ?? 103 and 196 ?? 103 atoms 10Be g-1 quartz were determined by measuring the concentrations and ratios of 10Be and 26Al in boulders (n = 10) and fine sediment (n = 7) at the outlet of the present active stream. Boulder erosion rate, ranging between 17 and 160 mm k.y.-1, was estimated by measuring 10Be and 26Al concentrations in nearby bedrock outcrops (n = 8). Since the boulders on the fans represent the most resistant rocks in this environment, we used the lowest rate for the age calculations. Monte Carlo simulations were used to determine ages of 16 ?? 5 and 29 ?? 7 ka for the two younger fan surfaces. Older fans (older than 100 ka) were dated by analyzing 10Be and 26Al concentrations in buried sand samples. The ages of the three oldest fans range between 227 ?? 242 and 413 ?? 185 ka. Although fan age determinations are accompanied by large uncertainties, the results of this study show a clear trend of increasing fan ages with increasing distance from the source near Little Rock Creek and provide a long-term slip rate along this section of the San Andreas fault. Slip rate along the Mojave section of the San Andreas fault for the past 413 k.y. can be determined in several ways. The average slip rate calculated from the individual fan ages is 4.2 ?? 0.9 cm yr-1. A linear regression through the data points implies a slip rate of 3.7 ?? 1.0 cm yr-1. A most probable slip rate of 3.0 ?? 1.0 cm yr-1 is determined by using a X2 test. These rates suggest that the average slip along the Mojave section of the San Andreas fault has been relatively constant over this time period. The slip rate along the Mojave section of the San Andreas fault, determined in this study, agrees well with previous slip rate calculations for the Quaternary. ?? 2005 Geological Society of America.

Geological Society of America Bulletin↗
USGS2004

Surface rupture of the 2002 Denali fault, Alaska, earthquake and comparison with other strike-slip ruptures

On 3 November 2002, an M7.9 earthquake produced 340 km of surface rupture on the Denali and two related faults in Alaska. The rupture proceeded from west to east and began with a 40-km-long break on a previously unknown thrust fault. Estimates of surface slip on this thrust are 3-6 m. Next came the principal surface break along ???218 km of the Denali fault. Right-lateral offsets averaged around 5 m and increased eastward to a maximum of nearly 9 m. The fault also ruptured beneath the trans-Alaska oil pipeline, which withstood almost 6 m of lateral offset. Finally, slip turned southeastward onto the Totschunda fault. Right-lateral offsets are up to 3 m, and the surface rupture is about 76 km long. This three-part rupture ranks among the longest strike-slip events of the past two centuries. The earthquake is typical when compared to other large earthquakes on major intracontinental strike-slip faults. ?? 2004, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Earthquake Spectra↗
USGS2004

Surface rupture and slip distribution of the Denali and Totschunda faults in the 3 November 2002 M 7.9 earthquake, Alaska

The 3 November 2002 Denali fault, Alaska, earthquake resulted in 341 km of surface rupture on the Susitna Glacier, Denali, and Totschunda faults. The rupture proceeded from west to east and began with a 48-km-long break on the previously unknown Susitna Glacier thrust fault. Slip on this thrust averaged about 4 m (Crone et al. , 2004) . Next came the principal surface break, along 226 km of the Denali fault, with average right-lateral offsets of 4.5–5.1 m and a maximum offset of 8.8 m near its eastern end. The Denali fault trace is commonly left stepping and north side up. About 99 km of the fault ruptured through glacier ice, where the trace orientation was commonly influenced by local ice fabric. Finally, slip transferred southeastward onto the Totschunda fault and continued for another 66 km where dextral offsets average 1.6–1.8 m. The transition from the Denali fault to the Totschunda fault occurs over a complex 25-km-long transfer zone of right-slip and normal fault traces. Three methods of calculating average surface slip all yield a moment magnitude of M w 7.8, in very good agreement with the seismologically determined magnitude of M 7.9. A comparison of strong-motion inversions for moment release with our slip distribution shows they have a similar pattern. The locations of the two largest pulses of moment release correlate with the locations of increasing steps in the average values of observed slip. This suggests that slip-distribution data can be used to infer moment release along other active fault traces.

Alaska↗
USGS2003

A methodology for probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis (PFDHA)

We present a methodology for conducting a site-specific probabilistic analysis of fault displacement hazard. Two approaches are outlined. The first relates the occurrence of fault displacement at or near the ground surface to the occurrence of earthquakes in the same manner as is done in a standard probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for ground shaking. The methodology for this approach is taken directly from PSHA methodology with the ground-motion attenuation function replaced by a fault displacement attenuation function. In the second approach, the rate of displacement events and the distribution for fault displacement are derived directly from the characteristics of the faults or geologic features at the site of interest. The methodology for probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis (PFDHA) was developed for a normal faulting environment and the probability distributions we present may have general application in similar tectonic regions. In addition, the general methodology is applicable to any region and we indicate the type of data needed to apply the methodology elsewhere.

Earthquake Spectra↗
USGS2003

Late Pleistocene to Holocene slip rates for the Gurvan Bulag thrust fault (Gobi-Altay, Mongolia) estimated with 10Be dates

We surveyed morphotectonic markers along the central part of the Gurvan Bulag thrust, a fault that ruptured with the Bogd fault during the Gobi-Altay earthquake (1957, M 8.3), to document climatic and tectonic processes along the fault for the late Pleistocene- Holocene period. The markers were dated using 10Be produced in situ. Two major periods of alluviation ended at 131 ?? 20 and 16 ?? 4.8 ka. These appear to be contemporaneous with global climatic changes at the terminations of marine isotope stages (MIS) 6 and 2. The vertical slip rates, determined from offset measurements and surfaces ages, are 0.14 ?? 0.03 mm/yr over the late Pleistocene-Holocene and between 0.44 ?? 0.11 and 1.05 ?? 0.25 mm/yr since the end of the late Pleistocene. The higher of these slip rates for the last ???16 kyr is consistent with paleoseismic investigations along the fault [Prentice et al., 2002], and suggests that, at the end of late Pleistocene, the fault evolved from quiescence to having recurrence intervals of 4.0 ?? 1.2 kyr for surface ruptures with ???4 m vertical offset (similar to that of 1957). The inferred recurrence interval is comparable to that of the Bogd fault (3.7 ?? 1.3 kyr) suggesting that the two faults may have ruptured together also earlier during the last ???16 kyr.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2002

A record of large earthquakes on the southern Hayward fault for the past 500 years

The Hayward fault, a major branch of the right-lateral San Andreas fault system, traverses the densely populated eastern San Francisco Bay region, California. We conducted a paleoseismic investigation to better understand the Hayward fault's past earthquake behavior. The site is near the south end of Tyson's Lagoon, a sag pond formed in a right step of the fault in Fremont. Because the Hayward fault creeps at the surface, we identified paleoseismic events using features that we judge to be unique to ground ruptures or the result of strong ground motion, such as the presence of fault-scarp colluvial deposits and liquefaction. We correlate the most recent event evidence (E1) to the historical 1868 M 6.9 earthquake that caused liquefaction in the pond and recognize three additional paleoruptures since A.D. 1470 ± 110 yr. Event ages were estimated by chronological modeling, which incorporated historical and stratigraphic information and radiocarbon and pollen data. Modeled, mean age and 95-percentile ranges of the three earlier events are A.D. 1730 (1650-1790) yr (E2), A.D. 1630 (1530-1740) yr (E3), and A.D. 1470 (1360-1580) (E4). The ages of these paleoearthquakes yield a mean recurrence of 130 ± 40 yr. Although the mean recurrence is well determined for the period A.D. 1470-1868, individual intervals are less well determined: E1-E2, 140 +80/-70 yr; E2-E3, 100 +90/-100 yr; and E3-E4, 150 +130/-110 yr.

California↗
USGS2002

Logs and data from trenches across the Hayward Fault at Tyson's Lagoon (Tule Pond), Fremont, Alameda County, California

INTRODUCTION The purpose of this publication is to make available detailed trench logs (sheets 1, 2), radiocarbon dates (table 1) and pollen data (fig. 1) obtained as a result of an intensive subsurface investigation of the Hayward Fault at Tyson's Lagoon (Tule Pond) from August to November 2000 (figs. 1, 2 on sheet 1). The Hayward Fault is recognized to be among the most hazardous in the United States (Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 1999). This document makes available geologic evidence for historical and prehistoric surfacerupturing earthquakes that were recorded at the site. Prehistoric earthquakes deduced from geologic evidence are called paleoearthquakes. Establishing a chronology of paleoearthquakes is of immediate use in resolving the level of hazard posed by the Hayward Fault for producing large earthquakes in the future. Preliminary findings of this investigation have been presented in Lienkaemper and others (2001). A formal report on our conclusions based on these data is in preparation. The investigation at Tyson's Lagoon is ongoing, so these products should not be considered final. Lienkaemper, Dawson, and Personius interpreted the geology and logged the trenches. Seitz and Reidy performed analyses on radiocarbon and pollen samples, respectively. Schwartz led the critical-review field team. Previous trenching work was done at Tyson's Lagoon (figs. 2, 3 on sheet 1). Lienkaemper (1992) references the location of most of those trenches. The earlier trenching was generally for the evaluation of local faultrupture hazard, except for the study of Williams (1993), which was a paleoearthquake investigation. An unpublished study by J.N. Alt in 1998 (shown on our site map as trenches 98A and 98B, fig. 3, on sheet 1), also sought evidence of paleoearthquakes. Alt's study and one by Woodward-Clyde and Associates (1970; trenches 70A to 70G, fig. 3) were located south of Walnut Avenue in one of the few areas that still remain undisturbed and were, thus, useful in planning our work in 2000.

Miscellaneous Field Studies Map↗