Geology topics

David M. Mushet

Publications and source records attributed to David M. Mushet.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

USGS2019

Multi-element fingerprinting of waters to evaluate connectivity among depressional wetlands

Establishing the connectivity among depressional wetlands is important for their proper management, conservation and restoration. In this study, the concentrations of 38 elements in surface water and porewater of depressional wetlands were investigated to determine chemical and hydrological connectivity of three hydrological types: recharge, flow-through, and discharge, in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America. Most element concentrations of porewater varied significantly by wetland hydrologic type ( p < 0.05), and increased along a recharge to discharge hydrologic gradient. Significant spatial variation of element concentrations in surface water was observed in discharge wetlands. Generally, higher element concentrations occurred in natural wetlands compared to wetlands with known disturbances (previous drainage and grazing). Electrical conductivity explained 42.3% and 30.5% of the variation of all element concentrations in porewater and surface water. Non-metric multidimensional scaling analysis showed that the similarity decreased from recharge to flow-through to discharge wetland in each sampling site. Cluster analysis confirmed that element compositions in porewater of interconnected wetlands were more similar to each other than to those of wetlands located farther away. Porewater and surface water in a restored wetland showed similar multi-element characteristics to natural wetlands. In contrast, depressional wetlands connected by seeps along a deactivated drain-tile path and a grazed wetland showed distinctly different multi-element characteristics compared to other wetlands sampled. Our findings confirm that the multi-element fingerprinting method can be useful for assessing hydro-chemical connectivity across the landscape, and indicate that element concentrations are not only affected by land use, but also by hydrological characteristics.

North Dakota↗

USGS2019

Climate-driven state shifts in the Prairie Pothole Region: Assessing future impacts relevant to the management of wetland habitats critical to waterfowl

Embedded within the North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) are millions of small, depressional wetlands that annually support 50–80% of the continent’s waterfowl production. We recently assembled evidence that demonstrates a change towards a wetter climate that is driving a shift in the state of the region’s wetland ecosystems. This ecological state-shift has been primarily the result of a sustained wet climate that has influenced timing and magnitude of surface-water inputs to wetlands, connections to groundwater, and inputs of dissolved salts. As climate influences continue to change in the PPR, it is important to understand the potential of these changes to impact wetland habitats important for waterfowl production. Previous model simulations of prairie-pothole wetlands under future climate scenarios projected decreases in the ability of wetlands to facilitate waterfowl production throughout the majority of what is currently the most productive portion of the region. Results from these modeling efforts also suggested that suitable waterfowl breeding-habitat would be limited mostly to the southeastern portion of the PPR, a portion of the region in which most depressional wetlands (> 90%) have been drained. Thus, if these modeled outcomes materialize, a significant restoration effort would be needed in the southeastern PPR to support waterfowl production. However, the models used in earlier efforts were developed from a small number of wetlands using data from a relatively dry period and did not allow for changing mechanisms influencing surface-water, groundwater and dissolved salt inputs to prairie-pothole wetlands. The primary objective of our research is to improve our understanding of future climate change on impacts to wetland ecosystems and breeding waterfowl habitat in the PPR. We used a newly developed Pothole Hydrology Linked Systems Simulator (PHyLiSS) model to estimate wetland ecosystem responses to 32 distinct climate models under 2 different emissions scenarios. Unlike previous wetland hydrology models, the PHyLiSS model allows for shifting hydrological and geochemical mechanisms influencing wetland ecosystems. We modeled one average-sized seasonal wetland basin at 18 different geographic locations (hereafter “sites”) across the PPR with 3 sites represented for each of 6 ecoregions coincident to early research. We applied the PHyLiSS model using historical daily precipitation and temperature data from 1982–2015 and developed linear models relative to ponded water depth in the simulated wetlands and the observed regional WBPHS May Pond count number for 16 of the 18 sites. Based on the output of 32 climate models and 2 emission scenarios we found a projected change in May pond numbers from -23% to +.02% when comparing the most recent climate period (1989–2018) to the end of the 21 st century (2070–2099). We also found no evidence that the distribution of May ponds will shift in the future. These results suggest that management and conservation strategies for wetlands in the PPR should continue to focus on areas where high densities of intact wetland basins support large numbers of breeding duck pairs.

Alberta, Iowa, Manitoba, Minnesota, Montana, North↗

USGS2018

The Pothole Hydrology-Linked Systems Simulator (PHyLiSS)—Development and application of a systems model for prairie-pothole wetlands

The North American Prairie Pothole Region covers about 770,000 square kilometers of the United States and Canada (including parts of 5 States and 3 provinces: North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Minnesota, Iowa, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Alberta). The Laurentide Ice Sheet shaped the landscape of the region about 12,000 to 14,000 years ago. The retreat of the ice sheet left behind low-permeability glacial till and a landscape dotted with millions of depressions known today as prairie potholes. The wetlands that subsequently formed in these depressions, prairie-pothole wetlands, provide critical migratory-bird habitat and support dynamic aquatic communities. Extensive grasslands and productive agricultural systems surround these wetland ecosystems. In prairie-pothole wetlands, the compositions of plant, invertebrate, and vertebrate communities are highly dependent on hydrogeochemical conditions. Regional climate shifts between wet and dry periods affect the length of time that wetlands contain ponded surface water and the chemistry of that ponded water. Land-use change can exacerbate or reduce the effects of climate on wetland hydrology and water chemistry. A mechanistic understanding of the relation among climate, land use, hydrology, chemistry, and biota in prairie-pothole wetlands is needed to better understand the complex, and often interacting, effects of climate and land use on prairie-pothole wetland systems and to facilitate climate and land-use change adaptation efforts. The Pothole Hydrology-Linked Systems Simulator (PHyLiSS) model was developed to address this need. The model simulates water-surface elevation dynamics in prairie-pothole wetlands and quantifies changes in salinity. The PHyLiSS model is unique among other wetland models because it accommodates differing sizes and morphometries of wetland basins, is not dependent on a priori designations of wetland class, and allows for functional changes associated with dynamic shifts in ecohydrological states. The PHyLiSS model also has the capability to simulate wetland salinity, and potential future iterations will also simulate the effects of changing hydrology and geochemical conditions on biota. This report documents the development of the hydrological and geochemical components of the PHyLiSS model and provides example applications.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2018

Differing modes of biotic connectivity within freshwater ecosystem mosaics

We describe a collection of aquatic and wetland habitats in an inland landscape, and their occurrence within a terrestrial matrix, as a “freshwater ecosystem mosaic” (FEM). Aquatic and wetland habitats in any FEM can vary widely, from permanently ponded lakes, to ephemerally ponded wetlands, to groundwater‐fed springs, to flowing rivers and streams. The terrestrial matrix can also vary, including in its influence on flows of energy, materials, and organisms among ecosystems. Biota occurring in a specific region are adapted to the unique opportunities and challenges presented by spatial and temporal patterns of habitat types inherent to each FEM. To persist in any given landscape, most species move to recolonize habitats and maintain mixtures of genetic materials. Species also connect habitats through time if they possess needed morphological, physiological, or behavioral traits to persist in a habitat through periods of unfavorable environmental conditions. By examining key spatial and temporal patterns underlying FEMs, and species‐specific adaptations to these patterns, a better understanding of the structural and functional connectivity of a landscape can be obtained. Fully including aquatic, wetland, and terrestrial habitats in FEMs facilitates adoption of the next generation of individual‐based models that integrate the principles of population, community, and ecosystem ecology.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2018

Biological connectivity of seasonally ponded wetlands across spatial and temporal scales

Many species that inhabit seasonally ponded wetlands also rely on surrounding upland habitats and nearby aquatic ecosystems for resources to support life stages and to maintain viable populations. Understanding biological connectivity among these habitats is critical to ensure that landscapes are protected at appropriate scales to conserve species and ecosystem function. Biological connectivity occurs across a range of spatial and temporal scales. For example, at annual time scales many organisms move between seasonal wetlands and adjacent terrestrial habitats as they undergo life‐stage transitions; at generational time scales, individuals may disperse among nearby wetlands; and at multigenerational scales, there can be gene flow across large portions of a species’ range. The scale of biological connectivity may also vary among species. Larger bodied or more vagile species can connect a matrix of seasonally ponded wetlands, streams, lakes, and surrounding terrestrial habitats on a seasonal or annual basis. Measuring biological connectivity at different spatial and temporal scales remains a challenge. Here we review environmental and biological factors that drive biological connectivity, discuss implications of biological connectivity for animal populations and ecosystem processes, and provide examples illustrating the range of spatial and temporal scales across which biological connectivity occurs in seasonal wetlands.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2018

Estimating wetland connectivity to streams in the Prairie Pothole Region: An isotopic and remote sensing approach

Understanding hydrologic connectivity between wetlands and perennial streams is critical to understanding the reliance of stream flow on inputs from wetlands. We used the isotopic evaporation signal in water and remote sensing to examine wetland‐stream hydrologic connectivity within the Pipestem Creek watershed, North Dakota, a watershed dominated by prairie‐pothole wetlands. Pipestem Creek exhibited an evaporated‐water signal that had approximately half the isotopic‐enrichment signal found in most evaporatively enriched prairie‐pothole wetlands. Groundwater adjacent to Pipestem Creek had isotopic values that indicated recharge from winter precipitation and had no significant evaporative enrichment, indicating that enriched surface water did not contribute significantly to groundwater discharging into Pipestem Creek. The estimated surface water area necessary to generate the evaporation signal within Pipestem Creek was highly dynamic, varied primarily with the amount of discharge, and was typically greater than the immediate Pipestem Creek surface water area, indicating that surficial flow from wetlands contributed to stream flow throughout the summer. We propose a dynamic range of spilling thresholds for prairie‐pothole wetlands across the watershed allowing for wetland inputs even during low‐flow periods. Combining Landsat estimates with the isotopic approach allowed determination of potential (Landsat) and actual (isotope) contributing areas in wetland‐dominated systems. This combined approach can give insights into the changes in location and magnitude of surface water and groundwater pathways over time. This approach can be used in other areas where evaporation from wetlands results in a sufficient evaporative isotopic signal.

North Dakota↗

USGS2018

Accommodating state shifts within the conceptual framework of the wetland continuum

The Wetland Continuum is a conceptual framework that facilitates the interpretation of biological studies of wetland ecosystems. Recently summarized evidence documenting how a multi-decadal wet period has influenced aspects of wetland, lake and stream systems in the southern prairie-pothole region of North America has revealed the potential for wetlands to shift among alternate states. We propose that incorporation of state shifts into the Wetland Continuum, as originally proposed or as modified by Hayashi et al., is a relatively simple matter if one allows for shifts of wetlands along the horizontal, groundwater axis of the framework under conditions of extreme and sustained wet or dry conditions. We suggest that the ease by which state shifts can be accommodated within both the original and modified frameworks of the Wetland Continuum is a testament to the robustness of the concept when it is related to the alternative-stable-state concept.

Wetlands↗

USGS2018

Using halogens (Cl, Br, I) to understand the hydrogeochemical evolution of drought-derived saline porewater beneath a prairie wetland

Numerous closed-basin prairie wetlands throughout the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America maintain moderate surface pond salinities (total dissolved solids [TDS] from 1 to 10 g L − 1 ) under semiarid climate by accumulation of gypsum and saline lenses of sulfate-rich porewater (TDS > 10 g L − 1 ) in wetland sediments during droughts. In order to understand the hydrogeochemical origin and composition of these saline porewaters, we made a detailed geochemical survey of Cl − , SO 4 2 − , Br, and I in the porewater, pondwater, and upland groundwater of a typical closed-basin prairie wetland (P1 in the Cottonwood Lake study area, North Dakota). Concentrations of Cl − ranged up to 5.9 mM in the saline porewaters, and was strongly correlated with SO 4 2 − and Br (Pearson's r > 0.7, p < 0.05; concentrations ranging up to 131 mM and 39 μM, respectively) due to the conservative effects of surface water evaporation. In contrast, total dissolved I was not significantly correlated with Cl − (Pearson's r = 0.18, p = 0.273) and was concentrated in porewaters located above the saline lenses with a peak concentration of 4.1 μM beneath the center of the wetland— the highest value for dissolved I ever measured in a terrestrial aquatic system and an order of magnitude above that of seawater. We hypothesize that chromatographic separation between more mobile anions (Cl − , SO 4 2 − , Br − ) and I occurs during droughts when wetland ponds dry and sedimentary iodide (I − ) oxidizes to its less-mobile form, iodate (IO 3 − ). Understanding the origin and geochemical composition of porewater salinity that develops beneath prairie wetlands during drought can help to fingerprint sources of salinity to wetland ponds during wet climate and elucidate halogen systematics in saline and organic-rich subsurface environments associated with hydrocarbon generation.

North Dakota↗

USGS2018

Long-term changes in pond permanence, size, and salinity in Prairie Pothole Region wetlands: The role of groundwater-pond interaction

Study Region Cottonwood Lake area wetlands, North Dakota, U.S.A. Study Focus Fluctuations in pond permanence, size, and salinity are key features of prairie-pothole wetlands that provide a variety of wetland habitats for waterfowl in the northern prairie of North America. Observation of water-level and salinity fluctuations in a semi-permanent wetland pond over a 20-year period, included periods when the wetland occasionally was dry, as well as wetter years when the pond depth and surface extent doubled while volume increased 10 times. New hydrological insights for the study region Compared to all other measured budget components, groundwater flow into the pond often contributed the least water (8–28 percent) but the largest amount (>90 percent) of specific solutes to the water and solute budgets of the pond. In drier years flow from the pond into groundwater represented > 10 percent of water loss, and in 1992 was approximately equal to evapotranspiration loss. Also during the drier years, export of calcium, magnesium, sodium, potassium, chloride, and sulfate by flow from the pond to groundwater was substantial compared with previous or subsequent years, a process that would have been undetected if groundwater flux had been calculated as a net value. Independent quantification of water and solute gains and losses were essential to understand controls on water-level and salinity fluctuations in the pond in response to variable climate conditions.

Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies↗

USGS2018

Drought-induced recharge promotes long-term storage of porewater salinity beneath a prairie wetland

Subsurface storage of sulfate salts allows closed-basin wetlands in the semiarid Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America to maintain moderate surface water salinity (total dissolved solids [TDS] from 1 to 10 g L −1 ), which provides critical habitat for communities of aquatic biota. However, it is unclear how the salinity of wetland ponds will respond to a recent shift in mid-continental climate to wetter conditions. To understand better the mechanisms that control surface-subsurface salinity exchanges during regional dry-wet climate cycles, we made a detailed geoelectrical study of a closed-basin prairie wetland (P1 in the Cottonwood Lake Study Area, North Dakota) that is currently experiencing record wet conditions. We found saline lenses of sulfate-rich porewater (TDS > 10 g L −1 ) contained in fine-grained wetland sediments 2–4 m beneath the bathymetric low of the wetland and within the currently ponded area along the shoreline of a prior pond stand ( c . 1983). During the most recent drought (1988–1993), the wetland switched from a groundwater discharge to recharge function, allowing salts dissolved in surface runoff to move into wetland sediments beneath the bathymetric low of the basin. However, groundwater levels during this time did not decline to the elevation of the saline lenses, suggesting these features formed during more extended paleo-droughts and are stable in the subsurface on at least centennial timescales. We hypothesize a “drought-induced recharge” mechanism that allows wetland ponds to maintain moderate salinity under semiarid climate. Discharge of drought-derived saline groundwater has the potential to increase the salinity of wetland ponds during wet climate.

North Dakota↗

USGS2017

Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center—Celebrating 50 years of science

The Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center (NPWRC) celebrated its 50-year anniversary in 2015. This report is written in support of that observance. We document why and how the NPWRC came to be and describe some of its many accomplishments and the influence the Center’s research program has had on natural resource management. The history is organized by major research themes, proceeds somewhat chronologically within each theme, and covers the Center’s first 50 years of research. During that period, Center scientists authored more than 1,700 publications and reports. More than 1,000 seasonal or temporary field personnel, and more than 100 graduate students, contributed to the Center’s success; many went on to have exemplary careers in natural resource management, conservation, and education. The mission of the Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center today remains true to the original vision: to provide the knowledge needed to understand, conserve, and manage the Nation’s natural resources for current and future generations, with an emphasis on species and ecosystems of the northern Great Plains. The Center’s first 50 years of applied biological research provides a deep scientific foundation on which to address emerging issues for the natural resources in the northern Great Plains and beyond.

Circular↗

USGS2017

Evidence for a climate-induced ecohydrological state shift in wetland ecosystems of the southern Prairie Pothole Region

Changing magnitude, frequency, and timing of precipitation can influence aquatic-system hydrological, geochemical, and biological processes, in some cases resulting in system-wide shifts to an alternate state. Since the early 1990s, the southern Prairie Pothole Region has been subjected to an extended period of increased wetness resulting in marked changes to aquatic systems defining this region. We explored numerous lines of evidence to identify: (1) how the recent wet period compared to historical variability, (2) hydrological, geochemical, and biological responses, and (3) how these responses might represent a state shift in the region’s wetland ecosystems. We analyzed long-term climate records and compared how different hydrological variables responded in this wet period compared to decades before the observed shift. Additionally, we used multi-decadal records of waterfowl population and subsurface tile drain records to explore wildlife and human responses to a shifting climate. Since 1993, a novel precipitation regime corresponded with increased pond numbers, ponded-water depths, lake levels, stream flows, groundwater heights, soil-moisture, waterfowl populations, and installation of subsurface tile drains in agricultural fields. These observed changes reflect an alteration in water storage and movement across the landscape that in turn has altered solute sources and concentrations of prairie-pothole wetlands and has increased pond permanence. Combined, these changes represent significant evidence for a state shift in the ecohydrological functioning of the region’s wetland ecosystems, a shift that may require a significant refinement of the previously developed “wetland continuum” concept.

Prairie Pothole Region↗

USGS2017

Model parameters for representative wetland plant functional groups

Wetlands provide a wide variety of ecosystem services including water quality remediation, biodiversity refugia, groundwater recharge, and floodwater storage. Realistic estimation of ecosystem service benefits associated with wetlands requires reasonable simulation of the hydrology of each site and realistic simulation of the upland and wetland plant growth cycles. Objectives of this study were to quantify leaf area index (LAI), light extinction coefficient ( k ), and plant nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K) concentrations in natural stands of representative plant species for some major plant functional groups in the United States. Functional groups in this study were based on these parameters and plant growth types to enable process-based modeling. We collected data at four locations representing some of the main wetland regions of the United States. At each site, we collected on-the-ground measurements of fraction of light intercepted, LAI, and dry matter within the 2013–2015 growing seasons. Maximum LAI and k variables showed noticeable variations among sites and years, while overall averages and functional group averages give useful estimates for multisite simulation modeling. Variation within each species gives an indication of what can be expected in such natural ecosystems. For P and K, the concentrations from highest to lowest were spikerush ( Eleocharis macrostachya ), reed canary grass ( Phalaris arundinacea ), smartweed ( Polygonum spp.), cattail ( Typha spp.), and hardstem bulrush ( Schoenoplectus acutus ). Spikerush had the highest N concentration, followed by smartweed, bulrush, reed canary grass, and then cattail. These parameters will be useful for the actual wetland species measured and for the wetland plant functional groups they represent. These parameters and the associated process-based models offer promise as valuable tools for evaluating environmental benefits of wetlands and for evaluating impacts of various agronomic practices in adjacent areas as they affect wetlands.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2017

The significant surface-water connectivity of "geographically isolated wetlands"

We evaluated the current literature, coupled with our collective research expertise, on surface-water connectivity of wetlands considered to be “geographically isolated” (sensu Tiner Wetlands 23:494–516, 2003a) to critically assess the scientific foundation of grouping wetlands based on the singular condition of being surrounded by uplands. The most recent research on wetlands considered to be “geographically isolated” shows the difficulties in grouping an ecological resource that does not reliably indicate lack of surface water connectivity in order to meet legal, regulatory, or scientific needs. Additionally, the practice of identifying “geographically isolated wetlands” based on distance from a stream can result in gross overestimates of the number of wetlands lacking ecologically important surface-water connections. Our findings do not support use of the overly simplistic label of “geographically isolated wetlands”. Wetlands surrounded by uplands vary in function and surface-water connections based on wetland landscape setting, context, climate, and geographic region and should be evaluated as such. We found that the “geographically isolated” grouping does not reflect our understanding of the hydrologic variability of these wetlands and hence does not benefit conservation of the Nation’s diverse wetland resources. Therefore, we strongly discourage use of categorizations that provide overly simplistic views of surface-water connectivity of wetlands fully embedded in upland landscapes.

Wetlands↗

USGS2017

Temporary wetlands: Challenges and solutions to conserving a ‘disappearing’ ecosystem

Frequent drying of ponded water, and support of unique, highly specialized assemblages of often rare species, characterize temporary wetlands, such as vernal pools, gilgais, and prairie potholes. As small aquatic features embedded in a terrestrial landscape, temporary wetlands enhance biodiversity and provide aesthetic, biogeochemical, and hydrologic functions. Challenges to conserving temporary wetlands include the need to: (1) integrate freshwater and terrestrial biodiversity priorities; (2) conserve entire ‘pondscapes’ defined by connections to other aquatic and terrestrial systems; (3) maintain natural heterogeneity in environmental gradients across and within wetlands, especially gradients in hydroperiod; (4) address economic impact on landowners and developers; (5) act without complete inventories of these wetlands; and (6) work within limited or non-existent regulatory protections. Because temporary wetlands function as integral landscape components, not singly as isolated entities, their cumulative loss is ecologically detrimental yet not currently part of the conservation calculus. We highlight approaches that use strategies for conserving temporary wetlands in increasingly human-dominated landscapes that integrate top-down management and bottom-up collaborative approaches. Diverse conservation activities (including education, inventory, protection, sustainable management, and restoration) that reduce landowner and manager costs while achieving desired ecological objectives will have the greatest probability of success in meeting conservation goals.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2017

Biota: Providing often-overlooked connections among freshwater systems

When we think about connections in and among aquatic systems, we typically envision clear headwater streams flowing into downstream rivers, river floodwaters spilling out onto adjacent floodplains, or groundwater connecting wetlands to lakes and streams. However, there is another layer of connectivity moving materials among freshwater systems, one with connections that are not always tied to downgradient flows of surface waters and groundwater. These movements are those of organisms, key components of virtually every freshwater system on the planet. In their movements across the landscape, biota connect aquatic systems in often-overlooked ways.

Water Resources Impact↗

USGS2016

Controls on the geochemical evolution of Prairie Pothole Region lakes and wetlands over decadal time scales

One hundred sixty-seven Prairie Pothole lakes, ponds and wetlands (largely lakes) previously analyzed chemically during the late 1960’s and early to mid-1970’s were resampled and reanalyzed in 2011–2012. The two sampling periods differed climatically. The earlier sampling took place during normal to slightly dry conditions, whereas the latter occurred during and immediately following exceptionally wet conditions. As reported previously in Mushet et al. ( 2015 ), the dominant effect was expansion of the area of these lakes and dilution of their major ions. However, within that context, there were significant differences in the evolutionary pathways of major ions. To establish these pathways, we employed the inverse modeling computer code NetpathXL. This code takes the initial and final lake composition and, using mass balance constrained by the composition of diluting waters, and input and output of phases, calculates plausible geochemical evolution pathways. Despite the fact that in most cases major ions decreased, a subset of the lakes had an increase in SO 4 2− . This distinction is significant because SO 4 2− is the dominant anion in a majority of Prairie Pothole Region wetlands and lakes. For lakes with decreasing SO 4 2− , the proportion of original lake water required for mass balance was subordinate to rainwater and/or overland flow. In contrast, lakes with increasing SO 4 2− between the two sampling episodes tended to be dominated by original lake water. This suite of lakes tended to be smaller and have lower initial SO 4 2− concentrations such that inputs of sulfur from dissolution of the minerals gypsum or pyrite had a significant impact on the final sulfur concentration given the lower dilution factors. Thus, our study provides context for how Prairie Pothole Region water bodies evolve geochemically as climate changes. Because wetland geochemistry in turn controls the ecology of these water bodies, this research contributes to the prediction of the impact of climate change on this important complex of ecosystems.

North Dakota↗

USGS2016

Interannual water-level fluctuations and the vegetation of prairie potholes: Potential impacts of climate change

Mean water depth and range of interannual water-level fluctuations over wet-dry cycles in precipitation are major drivers of vegetation zone formation in North American prairie potholes. We used harmonic hydrological models, which require only mean interannual water depth and amplitude of water-level fluctuations over a wet–dry cycle, to examine how the vegetation zones in a pothole would respond to small changes in water depth and/or amplitude of water-level fluctuations. Field data from wetlands in Saskatchewan, North Dakota, and South Dakota were used to parameterize harmonic models for four pothole classes. Six scenarios in which small negative or positive changes in either mean water depth, amplitude of interannual fluctuations, or both, were modeled to predict if they would affect the number of zones in each wetland class. The results indicated that, in some cases, even small changes in mean water depth when coupled with a small change in amplitude of water-level fluctuations can shift a prairie pothole wetland from one class to another. Our results suggest that climate change could alter the relative proportion of different wetland classes in the prairie pothole region.

Wetlands↗