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David E. Busch

Publications and source records attributed to David E. Busch.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

Research strategies for addressing uncertainties

There is an immense volume of information pertaining to research needs for addressing climate change uncertainties and resolving key information gaps. Fortunately, multiple independent efforts to establish research priorities have yielded similar results. Input on research needs is being used to craft national scientific priorities and strategies that are being implemented regionally by agencies and organizations. A number of regionally based efforts are already underway to aggregate and synthesize climate-related management needs and research priorities. Landscape Conservation Cooperatives and Climate Science Centers, funded by the Department of the Interior, are conducting strategic syntheses of common resource-management priorities and related science needs across the Southwest, and many of these priorities and needs are related to climate variability and change. The present Assessment includes many examples of the types of research that are needed to address key climate science uncertainties. The Assessment also includes examples of information needs related to understanding climate effects on systems (human, biophysical, ecosystems, and others) in the Southwest. Implementation of research strategies will increase understanding and improve the ability of the scientific community to anticipate the direction or magnitude of future climate-related change in these systems. The assembly of experts for the other chapters of this document provided a unique opportunity to draw upon the authors’ collective expertise to share knowledge about priority research strategies. The peer-reviewed information sources assessed in this chapter highlight research strategies and priorities established by the research community. Other sources cover priorities that are based primarily on management and policy needs. In the latter type, the sources represent the consensus of senior leaders of organizations, generally with substantial input and advice from the organizations’ technical and scientific experts.

Book chapter

Moving forward with imperfect information

This chapter summarized the scope of what is known and not known about climate in the Southwestern United States. There is now more evidence and more agreement among climate scientists about the physical climate and related impacts in the Southwest compared with that represented in the 2009 National Climate Assessment (Karl, Melillo, and Peterson 2009). However, there remain uncertainties about the climate system, the complexities within climate models, the related impacts to the biophysical environment, and the use of climate information on decision making. Uncertainty is introduced in each step of the climate planning-an-response process--in the scenarios used to drive the climate models, the information used to construct the models, and the interpretation and use of the model' data for planning and decision making (Figure 19.1). There are server key challenge, drawn from recommendations of the authors of this report, that contribute to these uncertainties in the Southwest: - There is a dearth of climate observations at high elevations and on the lands of Native nations. - There is limited understanding of the influence of climate change on natural variability (e.g. El Niño-Southern Oscillations, Pacific Decadal Oscillation), extreme events (droughts, floods), and the marine layer align coastal California. - Climate models, downscaling, and resulting projection of the physical climate are imperfect. Representing the influence of the diverse topography of the Southwest on regional climate is a particular challenge. - The impacts of climate change on key components of the natural ecosystems (including species and terrestrial ecosystems) are ill-defined. - The adaptive capacity of decision-making entities and legal systems to handle climate impacts is unclear. This creates a challenge for identifying vulnerabilities to climate in the Southwest. - Regulation, legislation, and political and social responses too climate all play important roles in our ability to adapt to climate impacts and mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. - Climate change is one of multiple stresses affecting the physical, biological, social, and economic systems of the Southwest, with population growth (and its related resource consumption, pollution, and land-sue changes) being particularly important.

Book chapter

Natural resource mitigation, adaptation and research needs related to climate change in the Great Basin and Mojave Desert

This report synthesizes the knowledge, opinions, and concerns of many Federal and State land managers, scientists, stakeholders, and partners from a workshop, held at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, on April 20-22, 2010. Land managers, research scientists, and resource specialists identified common concerns regarding the potential effects of climate change on public lands and natural resources in the Great Basin and Mojave Desert and developed recommendations for mitigation, adaptation, and research needs. Water and, conversely, the effects of drought emerged as a common theme in all breakout sessions on terrestrial and aquatic species at risk, managing across boundaries, monitoring, and ecosystem services. Climate change models for the southwestern deserts predict general warming and drying with increasing precipitation variability year to year. Scientists noted that under these changing conditions the past may no longer be a guide to the future in which managers envision increasing conflicts between human water uses and sustaining ecosystems. Increasing environmental stress also is expected as a consequence of shifting ecosystem boundaries and species distributions, expansion of non-native species, and decoupling of biotic mutualisms, leading to increasingly unstable biologic communities. Managers uniformly expressed a desire to work across management and agency boundaries at a landscape scale but conceded that conflicting agency missions and budgetary constraints often impede collaboration. More and better science is needed to cope with the effects of climate change but, perhaps even more important is the application of science to management issues using the methods of adaptive management based on long-term monitoring to assess the merits of management actions. Access to data is essential for science-based land management. Basic inventories, spatial databases, baseline condition assessments, data quality assurance, and data sharing were identified as top information priorities by all participants at this workshop. Optimizing the utility of ecosystem monitoring data will require standardizing monitoring protocols across agencies. Better communication among researchers and managers and cooperation through partnerships to manage resources across boundaries were emphasized as necessary for adapting to changing climatic conditions. However, even these strategies may be insufficient unless policy mandates, agency missions, and funding are coordinated at a high level.

Scientific Investigations Report

Water-use patterns of woody species in pineland and hammock communities of South Florida

Rockland pine forests of south Florida dominated by Pinus elliottii var. densa characteristically have poor soil development in relation to neighboring hardwood hammocks. This has led to the hypothesis that Everglades hammock trees are more reliant on soil moisture derived from local precipitation whereas pineland plants must depend more on groundwater linked to broader regional hydrologic patterns. Because soil moisture sources are likely to vary more than groundwater sources, we hypothesized that hammock plants would exhibit correspondingly higher levels of dry season water stress. This was examined by measuring predawn water potentials, and by analyzing water uptake in representative hammock and pineland woody species using stable isotopes of plant water and that of potential sources during wet and dry seasons. Two species typical of each of the two communities were selected; a fifth species which was found in both communities, Lysiloma latisiliqua Benth., was also analyzed. Water content of soils in both communities decreased from wet to dry season. Consistent with our hypothesis, the change in predawn water potentials between the wet and dry season was less in pineland species than that of hammock species. Water potential changes in L. latisiliqua in both communities resembled that of hammock species more than pineland plants. Isotopic data showed that pineland species rely proportionately more on groundwater than hammock species. Nevertheless, unlike hammock species in the Florida Keys, mainland hammock species utilized a substantial amount of groundwater during the dry season.

Florida

Long-term hydrologic effects on marsh plant community structure in the southern Everglades

Although large-scale transformation of Everglades landscapes has occurred during the past century, the patterns of association among hydrologic factors and southern Everglades freshwater marsh vegetation have not been well-defined. We used a 10-year data base on the aquatic biota of Shark Slough to classify vegetation and describe plant community change in intermediate- to long-hydroperiod Everglades marshes. Study area marsh vegetation was quantitatively grouped into associations dominated by 1) Cladium jamaicense , 2) a group of emergents including Eleocharis cellulosa, Sagittaria lancifolia , and Rhyncospora tracyi , 3) taxa associated with algal mats ( Utricularia spp. and Bacopa caroliniana ), and 4) the grasses Panicum hemitomon and Paspalidium geminatum . During the decade evaluated, the range of water depths that characterized our study sites approached both extremes depicted in the 40-year hydrologic record for the region. Water depths were near the long-term average during the mid-1980s, declined sharply during a late 1980s drought, and underwent a prolonged increase from 1991 through 1995. Overall macrophyte cover varied inversely with water depth, while the response of periphyton was more complex. An ordination analysis, based on plant species abundance, revealed that study area vegetation structure was associated with hydrologic patterns. Marsh plant community structure showed evidence of cyclic interannual variation corresponding to hydrologic change over the decade evaluated. Lower water depths, the occurrence of marl substrates, and high periphyton cover were correlated. These factors contributed to reduced macrophyte cover in portions of the study area from which water had been diverted.

Florida