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David B. Bunnell

Publications and source records attributed to David B. Bunnell.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

Adaptive capacity of freshwater organisms in North America: Current understanding and future applications

Freshwater species are increasingly threatened by climate change, yet our ability to assess their vulnerability remains incomplete. Typically, climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) evaluate three components: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Adaptive capacity, defined as the ability of a species to adjust to changing conditions, provides critical insight into how species may persist under future scenarios and can strengthen conservation planning by highlighting opportunities for resilience and targeted management strategies. Trait-based approaches offer a promising path for managers to operationalize adaptive capacity by identifying measurable biological and ecological traits that influence climate change response strategies. However, these insights are rarely integrated into broader vulnerability frameworks that support conservation decision making. We build on previous research to synthesize current understanding of adaptive capacity for three freshwater taxa in North America: fishes, mussels, and crayfishes. Our objectives were to: (1) assess the relevance of adaptive capacity factors for fishes, mussels, and crayfishes; (2) identify key opportunities and gaps in linking trait-based information into adaptive capacity assessments; and (3) illustrate how incorporating adaptive capacity can enhance management decisions for freshwater species under climate change. We used an expert workshop, literature review, and case studies to identify relevant adaptive capacity factors, assess available information, and evaluate inclusion in management contexts. We found that all three taxa had sufficient information to inform adaptive capacity assessments. In addition to existing adaptive capacity factors, we identified Morphology as an important yet underutilized cross-cutting diagnostic category when information was limited. By explicitly linking trait-based approaches with adaptive capacity frameworks, we offer practical guidance for improving climate adaptation strategies and prioritizing management actions for freshwater biodiversity under accelerating global change.

Global Change Biology Communications↗
USGS2026

Describing the seasonal abundance and growth rates of larval fishes across productivity gradients in Lake Huron in 2017

Several of the Laurentian Great Lakes, including Lake Huron, have undergone oligotrophication in the past decades and prey fish biomass has concomitantly declined. One potential mechanism to explain declines in prey fish is slower growth and lower survival at the larval stage. To determine whether reduced productivity affects the growth of larval fish, we sampled larval fishes and their environment approximately monthly from May through August 2017 at nine nearshore to offshore transects across Lake Huron that included North Channel, Georgian Bay, and the main basin. North Channel transects had the highest chlorophyll a concentrations and zooplankton densities. Rainbow smelt ( Osmerus mordax ), burbot ( Lota lota ), bloater ( Coregonus hoyi ), and shiners ( Notropis spp.) were the most abundant larval fish taxa, peaking in June and July. We aged rainbow smelt and bloater using otoliths, and estimates of growth rate revealed rainbow smelt always grew faster. For both species, we explained variation in total length by comparing 16 candidate linear mixed-effects models, with age, chlorophyll a , zooplankton, water temperature, larval fish density, and interactions with age as predictor variables. For rainbow smelt, the full model was best; zooplankton had the greatest effect, but it was negative and opposite from our hypothesis. For bloater, four candidate models were most parsimonious; water temperature had the greatest effect, and it was positive as predicted from our hypothesis. To more effectively evaluate whether zooplankton can limit larval fish growth and survival, we recommend that future designs conduct more frequently sampling within a year even at the expense of fewer transects.

Lake Huron↗
USGS2026

Decreased water transparency of nearshore Laurentian Great Lakes habitats is driven by increased dissolved organic carbon.

Little is understood of lake browning (due to increased dissolved organic carbon; DOC) in large lakes such as the Laurentian Great Lakes. Lake browning can alter whole lake ecosystems, including decreasing exposure to damaging ultraviolet radiation (UV-B) which is strongly and selectively attenuated by DOC more so than photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). We compared the changes in UV-B and PAR transparency to DOC data collected during the ice-free seasons from 62 nearshore sites in four of the five Great Lakes from 2002 to 2022 using linear mixed effects regression models based on backwards selected Bayesian information criteria. Regionally, DOC significantly increased from 2002 to 2022 by 0.5% per year on average. DOC strongly and inversely explained the variability of UV-B and PAR transparencies, as did seasons and offshore influence on these habitats. We provide regional evidence of lake browning within the nearshore habitats of the Great Lakes as a strong contrast to the well-documented increased offshore water transparency associated with the spread of invasive dreissenid mussels.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2025

Are we heading towards a global decrease in coregonine catches?

Coregonines have specific ecological needs, making them potentially very vulnerable to changes in lake conditions. A contemporary concern is that many lakes worldwide are experiencing environmental changes due to anthropogenic pressure and climate warming. Here, we compiled long-term data of coregonine catches from 27 lakes from three continents in the northern hemisphere. Declines in catch were observed in 67% of the lakes during the first two decades of the 21 st century, with a significant trend (p-value<0.05) in 44% of the cases. An analysis to determine whether trends are globally linked to environmental conditions and specific lake attributes was carried out on 26 lakes for the period 2000–2019. Several local declines in catches had already been documented in the literature and are likely to be due to local forcing such as nutrients, species invasions and changes in fishing practices. Nevertheless, on a global scale, our results indicate that lakes, which exhibited a significant decrease in catch were larger and more nutrient-poor than other lakes. The rate of change in catches appeared to be related to the trophic state of the lake. The specific effect of warming is difficult to determine during the studied period. When warming occurred outside the period of egg incubation, decreasing trends were more frequently observed in nutrient-poor than in mesotrophic lakes. In conclusion, our findings suggest that achieving oligo- or ultraoligotrophic conditions, as required in developed countries to control phytoplankton blooms and enhance water quality, could pose significant challenges for future management of coregonine fisheries.

International Journal of Limnology↗
USGS2024

Reconstructing half a century of coregonine recruitment reveals species-specific dynamics and synchrony across the Laurentian Great Lakes

Understanding how multiple species and populations vary in their recruitment dynamics can elucidate the processes driving recruitment across space and time. Lake Whitefish ( Coregonus clupeaformis ) and Cisco ( C. artedi ) are socioecologically important fishes across their range; however, many Laurentian Great Lakes populations have experienced declining, poor, or sporadic recruitment in recent decades. We integrated catch and age data from 38 long-term surveys across each of the Great Lakes and Lake Simcoe, resulting in a combined time series spanning 1960–2019. We estimated Lake Whitefish and Cisco year-class strength (YCS) in each lake using longitudinal mixed-effects regressions of relative cohort abundance. We subsequently quantified interspecific, spatial, and temporal synchrony in YCS using correlation and dynamic factor analyses. Lake Whitefish YCS was positively spatially synchronous on average, and YCS in all six lakes was elevated during the 1980s–1990s. In contrast, Cisco YCS was sporadic, not spatially synchronous, and highly variable around long-term, lake-specific means. YCS was not synchronous between species in any lake. Collectively, our analyses demonstrate that these species exhibit differential recruitment dynamics that may be regulated by species-specific factors. Results from this study can be leveraged in future research on the causes and consequences of cross-species, cross-basin recruitment variability.

Laurentian Great Lakes↗
USGS2024

Synthesizing professional opinion of Lake Whitefish and Cisco recruitment drivers across the Great Lakes

Disentangling the suite of ecological drivers that explain recruitment variability for Lake Whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis and Cisco C. artedi is of critical importance for their conservation, management, and stewardship in the Laurentian Great Lakes. However, recruitment is inherently variable and can be regulated by many interacting processes, the relative importance of which can vary spatially, temporally, and ontogenetically. Given this complexity, comparisons across lakes and species that identify overarching hypotheses could efficiently guide future research. Using facilitated deliberations among fishery professionals (n = 57) with expertise in Great Lakes Coregonus spp., we synthesized current knowledge regarding (1) which biophysical processes are most important for driving contemporary recruitment between species, among lakes, and across life stages and (2) mechanisms by which those drivers regulate recruitment at key life stages. Participants affirmed the hypothesis that many drivers interact in complex ways to regulate Lake Whitefish and Cisco recruitment. Large-scale climatic processes affecting early life-stage growth and survival were consistently considered important. Other drivers were only deemed influential in certain lakes, highlighting perceived context-dependent recruitment dynamics. Notably, recruitment in Lakes Superior, Michigan, and Huron was considered limited during larval and early juvenile life stages by low productivity, whereas spawning-habitat degradation and reduced metapopulation diversity were hypothesized to limit recruitment during embryonic and larval stages in Lakes Erie and Ontario. Several drivers were hypothesized to similarly impact Lake Whitefish and Cisco during early life stages, while drivers acting on post-larval life stages were typically distinct between species. The hypotheses synthesized herein can guide future research on Lake Whitefish and Cisco recruitment dynamics in the Great Lakes.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2024

Improving how science informs policy within the Ecosystem Approach

Science is fundamental to sound policies, particularly when it comes to implementing an Ecosystem Approach. Science can and should inform nearly all facets of an Ecosystem Approach, yet challenges remain to realizing this goal. To help identify and better understand these challenges we used a qualitative comparative case study approach to identify and characterize the challenges and successes of implementing a science-driven Ecosystem Approach in the Laurentian Great Lakes. These case studies include delisting of Areas of Concern, improving coastal resilience, and addressing declining offshore lake productivity. These case studies were selected because they provide a set of very different, yet complementary, cases for assessing implementation, as well as the factors influencing the science-policy exchange. Through this comparative study, we identified a diverse set of challenges and successes, that were both systemic and case specific. Emerging from this comparative assessment were principles and enabling conditions (e.g. scale, governance, shared goals) we believe are critical to consider when establishing or improving a science-driven Ecosystem Approach.

Aquatic Ecosystem Health & Management↗
USGS2024

Synchrony of alewife, Alosa pseudoharengus, year-class strength in the Great Lakes region

Fish recruitment is interannually variable and challenging to predict. Annual recruitment is often regionally synchronized among populations and identifying drivers of such synchrony may help shed light on recruitment dynamics. We investigated interannual variation of alewife Alosa pseudoharengus recruitment by estimating year-class strength for populations from three of the Laurentian Great Lakes (lakes Huron, Michigan, and Ontario) using annual assessment survey data from 1968 to 2022. We first determined the age when year-class strength was set for each dataset. We then used a mixed-modeling approach incorporating age, year-class, and sampling year to estimate year-class strength for each study lake. Thereafter, we evaluated regional synchrony in year-class strength across the three lakes and evaluated potential climatic drivers of synchrony. Our results suggest that alewife year-class strength is set by age-1. Our model-derived indices of alewife year-class strength were synchronized among the three lakes, and we identified spring-summer degree-days as a potential regional driver of synchrony. This analysis highlights the potential for strong influence of climatic conditions on fish recruitment in large freshwater systems.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗
USGS2024

Adaptive capacity of Inland Fishes Workshop Summary

Adaptive capacity (AC), defined as the ability of a species to cope with or adjust to climate change, is a critical determinant of species vulnerability and has been widely applied in wildlife contexts (IPCC 2014, Thurman et al. 2020). This process can be further defined with respect to intrinsic capacities versus extrinsic constraints on AC (Beever et al. 2016, Thurman et al. 2020). Previous applications of AC to biological systems have largely occurred through climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs; Thurman et al. 2020), and select examples exist in wildlife applications (Beever et al. 2023, Thurman et al. 2022). However, there is little understanding and application of adaptive capacity to inland fishes given previous emphases on trait-based approaches and population-level management. Therefore, there are substantial opportunities to improve our understanding of AC for inland fishes to explore climate impacts and the mechanisms by which interventions affect AC and resulting climate vulnerability.

Report↗
USGS2024

Understanding and forecasting potential recruitment of Lake Michigan fishes by modeling growth and survival of larval stages with coupled climate, biophysical, and bioenergetics models

Individual adult fish can produce huge numbers of small offspring, but most die in the first weeks of life. Environmental changes that lead to even small changes in early life survival can have a disproportionate impact on the number of fish that survive and ultimately support fisheries. Lake Michigan supports valuable recreational and commercial fisheries that can fluctuate with how well fish survive in early life. Statistical models have revealed linkages between survival and climate characteristics, such as water temperature, but the exact mechanisms remain unclear and how future climate will affect the survival of young fish is highly uncertain. We integrated a series of models to investigate how climate variability may explain historical variation in the survival of young alewife and yellow perch, two fish populations that support key fisheries either directly or indirectly, while also projecting their future survival in the mid-21st century under different scenarios informed by consultation with fishery managers. Our model results revealed how spring and summer water temperatures in Lake Michigan can affect the environment in which young alewife and yellow perch grow and survive. Specifically, in years when lake warming is rapid, young fish are more likely to be transported from their natal, productive, nearshore environments to cooler and less productive offshore environments, unless adults also spawn earlier in these warm years. Furthermore, model predictions of prey abundance for young fish in the mid-21st century indicate less favorable conditions for growth and survival compared to predictions based solely on warming temperatures. With completion of the final products in the coming year, including predicted growth and survival of young fish under different future scenarios, fishery managers will have more information to share with stakeholders regarding how expectations may need to be modified regarding alewife and yellow perch productivity.

Lake Michigan↗
USGS2023

A science and management partnership to restore coregonine diversity to the Laurentian Great Lakes

Similar to many freshwater ecosystems, the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America have undergone numerous anthropogenic stressors resulting in considerable loss of biodiversity and habitat. Among Great Lakes fishes, the coregonine sub-family has endured the most extensive declines, including extinction of several species ( Coregonus johannae, C. alpenae , and C. kiyi orientalis ) and at least 10 instances of local extirpations of other species ( C. nigripinnis, C. reighardi, C. zenithicus, C. hoyi , and C. artedi ) across all 5 lakes, much of which occurred prior to the 1960s owing to overfishing, interactions with non-indigenous species, and habitat loss. Despite these declines, no federal-, provincial-, or state-mandated actions were ever implemented to conserve coregonine diversity, potentially because so much of the coregonine declines occurred prior to the enactment of federal conservation legislation. Possible explanations for inaction since enactment of that legislation include insufficient data on biological vulnerability or threats, unresolved taxonomy, and limited support from the fishery management agencies and their stakeholders prior to the 2000s. In recent decades, however, several fishery management agencies have undertaken efforts to re-introduce coregonine diversity. These efforts helped lead to development of a science-based framework to restore coregonines that was universally endorsed by fishery managers representing eight U.S. states, four U.S. tribal organizations, and the province of ON, Canada, in May 2018. The basin-wide framework is based on principles of conservation biology and adaptive management. We describe details of its key steps, including planning, restoring, and evaluating, while also describing recent implementation efforts to develop methods, improve available resources, and enhance coordination across the basin. Although our paper describes a regional effort to restore native coregonines, our adaptive-management approach could be used by other multi-agency stakeholders seeking to conserve or restore native fishes.

Laurentian Great Lakes↗
USGS2022

Distributions of Cisco (Coregonus artedi) in the upper Great Lakes in the mid-twentieth century, when populations were in decline

The restoration of the once abundant Cisco ( Coregonus artedi ) is a management interest across the Laurentian Great Lakes. To inform the restoration, we (1) described historical distributions of Cisco and (2) explored whether non-indigenous Rainbow Smelt ( Osmerus mordax ) and Alewife ( Alosa pseudoharengus ) played a role in the decline of Cisco populations across the upper Great Lakes (i.e., Lakes Superior, Michigan, and Huron). Our source data were collected from fishery-independent surveys conducted by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s research vessel R/V Cisco in 1952–1962. By analyzing data collected by gill-net surveys, we confirmed the importance of embayment and shallow-water habitats to Cisco. We found that Cisco was abundant in Whitefish Bay and Keweenaw Bay, Lake Superior, and in Green Bay, Lake Michigan, but we also found a sign of Cisco extirpation in Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron. Our results also showed that Ciscoes generally stayed in waters <80 m in bottom depth throughout the year. However, a substantial number of Ciscoes stayed in very deep waters (>150 m in bottom depth) in summer and fall in Lake Michigan, although we cannot exclude the possibility that these Ciscoes had hybridized with the other Coregonus species. By comparing complementary data collected from bottom-trawl surveys, we concluded that the spatiotemporal overlap between Rainbow Smelt and Cisco likely occurred across the upper Great Lakes throughout 1952–1962. These data were consistent with the hypothesis that Rainbow Smelt played a role in the decline of Cisco populations across the upper Great Lakes in the period. We also found that the spatiotemporal overlap between Alewife and Cisco likely occurred only in Saginaw Bay in fall 1956 and in Lake Michigan after 1960. Thus, any potential recovery of Cisco after the 1950s could have been inhibited by Alewife in Lakes Michigan and Huron.

Lake Huron, Lake Michigan, Lake Superior↗
USGS2022

Predicting larval alewife transport in Lake Michigan using hydrodynamic and Lagrangian particle dispersion models

Several species of fish in large lakes and marine environments have a pelagic larval stage, and are subject to variable transport that can ultimately regulate survival and recruitment success. Alewife, Alosa pseudoharengus , are subject to transport by complex coastal currents during their pelagic larval stage (~ 30 d). We assessed backward-trajectory simulations, consisting of a Lagrangian particle dispersion model linked to the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model, to estimate likely hatch locations of aged larval alewife collected from locations on both the eastern and western sides of Lake Michigan during July 2015. We used four deployments of three satellite-tracked drifter buoys in coastal waters to assess model skill in estimating the origin of a drifter from its final location. We found that the trajectories of drifters varied greatly, depending on wind events and associated coastal transport processes, including upwelling/downwelling and coastal jet currents. In 2 of 12 cases, the backward trajectory simulations failed to predict the drifter origin, associated with transport of 170 km in a narrow coastal jet current. In the remaining 10 cases, the known drifter origin was within 3.5 km of the spatial patch of predicted possible origins for a scenario of horizontal diffusivity (188 m 2 s −1 ) consistent with the offshore model grid resolution. Modeled backward trajectories estimated that alewife originated from the same side of the lake where they were collected, within ~ 100 km of the collection site. Our paper demonstrates the utility of hydrodynamic models to estimate a region of origin for aged larval fish.

Lake Michigan↗
USGS2021

Metal accumulation in Lake Michigan prey fish: Influence of ontogeny, trophic position, and habitat

Developing an understanding of factors that influence the accumulation and magnification of heavy metals in fish of the Laurentian Great Lakes is central to managing ecosystem and human health. We measured muscle tissue concentrations of heavy metals in Lake Michigan prey fish that vary in habitat use, diet, and trophic position, including alewife, bloater, deepwater sculpin, round goby, rainbow smelt, and slimy sculpin. For each individual, we measured tissue concentrations of four metals (chromium [Cr], copper [Cu], manganese [Mn], and total mercury [THg]), stable isotope ratios for trophic position (δ 15 N and δ 13 C), and individual fish attributes (length, mass). Total mercury concentration was positively related to total length and δ 15 N. Of all species, round goby displayed one of the greatest increases in mercury per unit growth and was most isotopically distinct from other species. Profundal species (bloater, deepwater sculpin, slimy sculpin) had similar high THg tissue concentrations, possibly due to slower growth due to cold temperatures, whereas other species (alewife, round goby, rainbow smelt) showed more variation in THg. In contrast, other metals (Cr, Cu, Mn) had either a negative or no relationship to total length and δ 15 N, suggesting no bioaccumulation or biomagnification. Potential incorporation of mercury by sportfish may thus be related to species, age, diet, trophic position, and habitat of prey fish. Our findings serve as a foundation for understanding how heavy metals accumulate in Lake Michigan food webs and highlight the continued need for management of metal input and cycling in Lake Michigan.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin↗
USGS2021

Status and trends of pelagic and benthic prey fish populations in Lake Michigan, 2020

Lakewide acoustic (AC) and bottom trawl (BT) surveys are conducted annually to generate indices of pelagic and benthic prey fish densities in Lake Michigan. The BT survey had been conducted each fall from 1973 through 2019 using 12-m trawls at depths ranging from 9 to 110 m and included 70 fixed locations distributed across seven transects; this survey estimates densities of seven prey fish species (i.e., alewife, bloater, rainbow smelt, deepwater sculpin, slimy sculpin, round goby, ninespine stickleback) as well as for age-0 yellow perch and large burbot. The AC survey, which serves to estimate densities of three prey fish species (i.e., alewife, bloater, and rainbow smelt), had been conducted each late summer/early fall from 2004-2019. The data generated from these surveys are used to estimate various population parameters that are, in turn, used by state and tribal agencies in managing Lake Michigan fish stocks. The 2020 COVID-19 pandemic severely limited the Lake Michigan pelagic and benthic prey fish surveys. While the AC survey was not conducted, 32 tows across three of seven standard BT transects (Saugatuck, Waukegan and Port Washington) were completed during an abbreviated survey. Total prey fish biomass density from the abbreviated BT survey was 1.91 kg/ha, continuing a recent trend of historically low estimates below the long-term (i.e., 1973-2020) average of 34.94 kg/ha. Mean biomass of yearling and older (YAO) alewives in 2020 was 0.025 ± 0.017 kg/ha, tied for the lowest ever recorded on the BT survey. No age-0 alewife were captured in the bottom trawl and of the limited number (n=16) of alewife collected, none were older than age four. Bloater (1.39 kg/ha) and deepwater sculpin (0.47 kg/ha) accounted for greatest proportion of biomass in the BT survey, while biomass density of slimy sculpin, round goby and rainbow smelt were all ≤ 0.01 kg/ha. While caution must be taken when interpreting the results of the abbreviated BT survey, the estimates suggest that prey fish densities remain well below historical values.

Lake Michigan↗
USGS2020

Trends in inland commercial fisheries in the United States

Inland fisheries, defined as finfish caught in lakes, rivers, and other water bodies, provide economic value and a source of protein at local and international levels. However, no comprehensive compilation of U.S. inland commercial fisheries exists. We sought to obtain data across all 50 states during 1990–2015 and noted a small, but significant, decline in harvest. The minimum harvest averaged 41,427 tonnes during 2009–2015 and peaked in 1995 with a minimum harvest of 49,951 tonnes. During 2009–2015, harvest and taxonomic composition varied regionally: eastern interior (the highest regional harvest, dominated by coregonines and carp), western interior (carp and Clupeidae), Gulf (catfish and Clupeidae), Pacific (salmonines), and Atlantic (the lowest regional harvest, dominated by catfish and Clupeidae). Our data compilation of commercial landings was more than double the current limited national inland harvest statistics, which might be indicative of an under appreciation for the value of inland fisheries that can have consequences when policy decisions are made regarding competing sectors for water usage.

Fisheries Magazine↗
USGS2020

Piscivory in recovering Lake Michigan Cisco (Coregonus artedi): The role of invasive species

Contemporary conditions in Lake Michigan where cisco ( Coregonus artedi ) populations are expanding are vastly different from those encountered by the historic fish community. Invasive species introductions have substantially altered the Lake Michigan ecosystem in the last half century. Successful management efforts for cisco in Lake Michigan hinge on our ability to understand their contemporary ecology, especially diet. We collected 725 cisco stomachs opportunistically from commercial fisheries (2%) and in agency surveys (98%) over six years (2014–2019). The majority (70%) of stomachs were from East Grand Traverse Bay and 96% of these were collected at Elk Rapids. Additional samples were collected from Charlevoix (8%), Little Traverse Bay (11%), other sites in northern Lake Michigan (4%), Central Lake Michigan (6%), and Green Bay (1%). Our results indicated a high degree of piscivory, in contrast to historical and contemporary accounts of planktivory for cisco in the other Laurentian Great Lakes. The top three prey items by mass were not native to the Great Lakes and these accounted for 87% of all observed prey mass consumed: round goby ( Neogobius melanostomus) (58%), Bythotrephes longimanus (15%), and alewife ( Alosa pseudoharengus) (14%). Round goby dominated the prey in the spring and summer, while B. longimanus and alewife occurred more in summer and fall diets. The contemporary population of cisco in Lake Michigan has been able to uniquely capitalize on abundant invasive prey resources, which may be less limiting and more energy-rich than a more typical planktivorous cisco diet.

Lake Michigan↗