State of California sea level rise guidance: 2024 Science and policy update
No abstract available.
California↗
Geology topics
Daniel R. Cayan
Publications and source records attributed to Daniel R. Cayan.
Autumn precipitation: The competition with Santa Ana winds in determining fire outcomes in southern California
Background: California’s South Coast has experienced peak burned area in autumn. Following typically dry, warm summers, precipitation events and Santa Ana winds (SAWs) each occur with increasing frequency from autumn to winter and may affect fire outcomes. Aims: We investigate historical records to understand how these counteracting influences have affected fires. Methods: We defined autumn precipitation onset as the first 3 days when precipitation ≥8.5 mm, and assessed how onset timing and SAWs were associated with frequency of ≥100 ha fires and area burned during 1948–2018. Key results: Timing of autumn precipitation onset had negligible trend but varied considerably from year to year. A total of 90% of area burned in autumn through winter occurred from fires started before onset. Early onset autumns experienced considerably fewer fires and area burned than late onset autumns. SAWs were involved in many of the large fires before onset and nearly all of the lesser number after onset. Conclusions: Risk of large fires is reduced after autumn precipitation onset, but may resurge during SAWs, which provide high risk weather required to generate a large fire. Implications: During autumn before onset, and particularly during late onset autumns, high levels of preparation and vigilance are needed to avoid great fire impacts.
California↗
Climate, snow, and soil moisture data set for the Tuolumne and Merced river watersheds, California, USA
We present hourly climate data to force land surface process models and assessments over the Merced and Tuolumne watersheds in the Sierra Nevada, California, for the water year 2010–2014 period. Climate data (38 stations) include temperature and humidity (23), precipitation (13), solar radiation (8), and wind speed and direction (8), spanning an elevation range of 333 to 2987 m. Each data set contains raw data as obtained from the source (Level 0), data that are serially continuous with noise and nonphysical points removed (Level 1), and, where possible, data that are gap filled using linear interpolation or regression with a nearby station record (Level 2). All stations chosen for this data set were known or documented to be regularly maintained and components checked and calibrated during the period. Additional time-series data included are available snow water equivalent records from automated stations (8) and manual snow courses (22), as well as distributed snow depth and co-located soil moisture measurements (2–6) from four locations spanning the rain–snow transition zone in the center of the domain. Spatial data layers pertinent to snowpack modeling in this data set are basin polygons and 100 m resolution rasters of elevation, vegetation type, forest canopy cover, tree height, transmissivity, and extinction coefficient. All data are available from online data repositories ( https://doi.org/10.6071/M3FH3D ).
California↗
A multidisciplinary coastal vulnerability assessment for local government focused on ecosystems, Santa Barbara area, California
Incorporating coastal ecosystems in climate adaptation planning is needed to maintain the well-being of both natural and human systems. Our vulnerability study uses a multidisciplinary approach to evaluate climate change vulnerability of an urbanized coastal community that could serve as a model approach for communities worldwide, particularly in similar Mediterranean climates. We synthesize projected changes in climate, coastal erosion and flooding, watershed runoff and impacts to two important coastal ecosystems, sandy beaches and coastal salt marshes. Using downscaled climate models along with other regional models, we find that temperature, extreme heat events, and sea level are expected to increase in the future, along with more intense rainfall events, despite a negligible change in annual rainfall. Consequently, more droughts are expected but the magnitude of larger flood events will increase. Associated with the continuing rise of mean sea level, extreme coastal water levels will occur with increasingly greater magnitudes and frequency. Severe flooding will occur for both natural (wetlands, beaches) and built environments (airport, harbor, freeway, and residential areas). Adaptation actions can reduce the impact of rising sea level, which will cause losses of sandy beach zones and salt marsh habitats that support the highest biodiversity in these ecosystems, including regionally rare and endangered species, with substantial impacts occurring by 2050. Providing for inland transgression of coastal habitats, effective sediment management, reduced beach grooming and removal of shoreline armoring are adaptations that would help maintain coastal ecosystems and the beneficial services they provide.
California↗
Responses of unimpaired flows, storage, and managed flows to scenarios of climate change in the San Francisco Bay-Delta watershed
Projections of meteorology downscaled from global climate model runs were used to drive a model of unimpaired hydrology of the Sacramento/San Joaquin watershed, which in turn drove models of operational responses and managed flows. Twenty daily climate change scenarios for water years 1980–2099 were evaluated with the goal of producing inflow boundary conditions for a watershed sediment model and for a hydrodynamical model of the San Francisco Bay-Delta estuary. The resulting time series of meteorology, snowpack, unimpaired flow, reservoir storage, and managed flow were analyzed for century-scale trends. In the Sacramento basin, which dominates Bay-Delta inflows, all 20 scenarios portrayed warming trends (with a mean of 4.1 °C) and most had precipitation increases (with a mean increase of 9%). Sacramento basin snowpack water equivalent declined sharply (by 89%), which was associated with a major shift toward earlier unimpaired runoff timing (33% more flow arriving prior to 1 April). Sacramento basin reservoirs showed large declines in end-of-September storage. Water-year averaged outflows increased for most scenarios for both unimpaired and impaired flows, and frequency of extremely high daily unimpaired and impaired flows increased (increases of 175% and 170%, respectively). Managed Delta inflows were projected to experience large increases in the wet season and declines in the dry season. Changes in management strategy and infrastructure can mitigate some of these changes, though to what degree is uncertain.
California↗
Yosemite Hydroclimate Network: Distributed stream and atmospheric data for the Tuolumne River watershed and surroundings
Regions of complex topography and remote wilderness terrain have spatially varying patterns of temperature and streamflow, but due to inherent difficulties of access, are often very poorly sampled. Here we present a data set of distributed stream stage, streamflow, stream temperature, barometric pressure, and air temperature from the Tuolumne River Watershed in Yosemite National Park, Sierra Nevada, California, USA, for water years 2002–2015, as well as a quality-controlled hourly meteorological forcing time series for use in hydrologic modeling. We also provide snow data and daily inflow to the Hetch Hetchy Reservoir for 1970–2015. This paper describes data collected using low-visibility and low-impact installations for wilderness locations and can be used alone or as a critical supplement to ancillary data sets collected by cooperating agencies, referenced herein. This data set provides a unique opportunity to understand spatial patterns and scaling of hydroclimatic processes in complex terrain and can be used to evaluate downscaling techniques or distributed modeling. The paper also provides an example methodology and lessons learned in conducting hydroclimatic monitoring in remote wilderness.
California↗
Ecological change on California's Channel Islands from the Pleistocene to the Anthropocene
Historical ecology is becoming an important focus in conservation biology and offers a promising tool to help guide ecosystem management. Here, we integrate data from multiple disciplines to illuminate the past, present, and future of biodiversity on California's Channel Islands, an archipelago that has undergone a wide range of land-use and ecological changes. Our analysis spans approximately 20,000 years, from before human occupation and through Native American hunter–gatherers, commercial ranchers and fishers, the US military, and other land managers. We demonstrate how long-term, interdisciplinary research provides insight into conservation decisions, such as setting ecosystem restoration goals, preserving rare and endemic taxa, and reducing the impacts of climate change on natural and cultural resources. We illustrate the importance of historical perspectives for understanding modern patterns and ecological change and present an approach that can be applied generally in conservation management planning.
California↗
The key role of dry days in changing regional climate and precipitation regimes
Future changes in the number of dry days per year can either reinforce or counteract projected increases in daily precipitation intensity as the climate warms. We analyze climate model projected changes in the number of dry days using 28 coupled global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 5 (CMIP5). We find that the Mediterranean Sea region, parts of Central and South America, and western Indonesia could experience up to 30 more dry days per year by the end of this century. We illustrate how changes in the number of dry days and the precipitation intensity on precipitating days combine to produce changes in annual precipitation, and show that over much of the subtropics the change in number of dry days dominates the annual changes in precipitation and accounts for a large part of the change in interannual precipitation variability.
Scientific Reports↗
Ongoing drought-induced uplift in the western United States.
The western United States has been experiencing severe drought since 2013. The solid earth response to the accompanying loss of surface and near-surface water mass should be a broad region of uplift. We use seasonally adjusted time series from continuously operating global positioning system stations to measure this uplift, which we invert to estimate mass loss. The median uplift is 5 millimeters (mm), with values up to 15 mm in California’s mountains. The associated pattern of mass loss, ranging up to 50 centimeters (cm) of water equivalent, is consistent with observed decreases in precipitation and streamflow. We estimate the total deficit to be ~240 gigatons, equivalent to a 10-cm layer of water over the entire region, or the annual mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet.
Science↗
The variability of California summertime marine stratus: impacts on surface air temperatures
This study investigates the variability of clouds, primarily marine stratus clouds, and how they are associated with surface temperature anomalies over California, especially along the coastal margin. We focus on the summer months of June to September when marine stratus are the dominant cloud type. Data used include satellite cloud reflectivity (cloud albedo) measurements, hourly surface observations of cloud cover and air temperature at coastal airports, and observed values of daily surface temperature at stations throughout California and Nevada. Much of the anomalous variability of summer clouds is organized over regional patterns that affect considerable portions of the coast, often extend hundreds of kilometers to the west and southwest over the North Pacific, and are bounded to the east by coastal mountains. The occurrence of marine stratus is positively correlated with both the strength and height of the thermal inversion that caps the marine boundary layer, with inversion base height being a key factor in determining their inland penetration. Cloud cover is strongly associated with surface temperature variations. In general, increased presence of cloud (higher cloud albedo) produces cooler daytime temperatures and warmer nighttime temperatures. Summer daytime temperature fluctuations associated with cloud cover variations typically exceed 1°C. The inversion-cloud albedo-temperature associations that occur at daily timescales are also found at seasonal timescales.
California↗
Natural climate variability and teleconnections to precipitation over the Pacific-North American region in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models
Natural climate variability will continue to be an important aspect of future regional climate even in the midst of long-term secular changes. Consequently, the ability of climate models to simulate major natural modes of variability and their teleconnections provides important context for the interpretation and use of climate change projections. Comparisons reported here indicate that the CMIP5 generation of global climate models shows significant improvements in simulations of key Pacific climate mode and their teleconnections to North America compared to earlier CMIP3 simulations. The performance of 14 models with simulations in both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 archives are assessed using singular value decomposition analysis of simulated and observed winter Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and concurrent precipitation over the contiguous United States and northwestern Mexico. Most of the models reproduce basic features of the key natural mode and their teleconnections, albeit with notable regional deviations from observations in both SST and precipitation. Increasing horizontal resolution in the CMIP5 simulations is an important, but not a necessary, factor in the improvement from CMIP3 to CMIP5.
Geophysical Research Letters↗
The influence of north Pacific atmospheric circulation on streamflow in the west
The annual cycle and nonseasonal variability of streamflow over western North America and Hawaii is studied in terms of atmospheric forcing elements. This study uses several decades of monthly average streamflow beginning as early as the late 1800's over a network of 38 stations. In addition to a strong annual cycle in mean streamflow and its variance at most of the stations, there is also a distinct annual cycle in the autocorrelation of anomalies that is related to the interplay between the annual cycles of temperature and precipitation. Of particular importance to these lag effects is the well-known role of water stored as snow pack, which controls the delay between peak precipitation and peak flow and also introduces persistence into the nonseasonal streamflow anomalies, with time scales from 1 month to over 1 year. The degree to which streamflow is related to winter atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific and western North America is tested using correlations with time averaged, gridded sea level pressure (SLP), which begins in 1899. Streamflow fluctuations show significant large-scale correlations for the winter (December through February) mean SLP anomaly patterns over the North Pacific with maximum correlations ranging from 0.3 to about 0.6. For streams along the west coast corridor the circulation pattern associated with positive streamflow anomalies is low pressure centered off the coast to the west or northwest, indicative of increased winter storms and an anomalous westerly-to-southwesterly wind component. For streams in the interior positive streamflow anomalies are associated with a positive SLP anomaly stationed remotely over the central North Pacific, and with negative but generally weaker SLP anomalies locally. One important influence on streamflow variability is the strength of the Aleutian Low in winter. This is represented by the familiar Pacific-North America (PNA) index and also by an index defined herein the “CNP” (Central North Pacific). This index, beginning in 1899, is taken to be the average of the SLP anomaly south of the Aleutians and the western Gulf of Alaska. Correlations between PNA or CNP and regional anomalies reflect streamflow the alternations in strength and position of the mean North Pacific storm track entering North America as well as shifts in the trade winds over the subtropical North Pacific. Regions whose streamflow is best tuned to the PNA or CNP include coastal Alaska, the northwestern United States, and Hawaii; the latter two regions have the opposite sign anomaly as the former. The pattern of streamflow variations associated with El Niño is similar, but the El Niño signal also includes a tendency for greater than normal streamflow in the southwestern United States. These indices are significantly correlated with streamflow at one to two seasons in advance of the December–August period, which may allow modestly skillful forecasts. It is important to note that streamflow variability in some areas, such as British Columbia and California, does not respond consistently to these broad scale Pacific atmospheric circulation indices, but is related to regional atmospheric anomaly features over the eastern North Pacific. Spatially, streamflow anomalies are fairly well correlated over scales of several hundred kilometers. Inspection of the spatial anomalies of stream-flow in this study suggest an asymmetry in the spatial pattern of positive versus negative streamflow anomalies in the western United States: dry patterns have tended to be larger and more spatially coherent than wet patterns.
Pacific Ocean↗
Climate variability in an estuary: Effects of riverflow on San Francisco Bay
A simple conceptual model of estuarine variability in the context of climate forcing has been formulated using up to 65 years of estimated mean-monthly delta flow, the cumulative freshwater flow to San Francisco Bay from the Sacramento-San Joaquin River, and salinity observations near the mouth, head, mid-estuary, and coastal ocean. Variations in delta flow, the principal source of variability in the bay, originate from anomalous changes in northern and central California streamflow, much of which is linked to anomalous winter sea level pressure (“CPA”) in the eastern Pacific. In years when CPA is strongly negative, precipitation in the watershed is heavy, delta flow is high, and the bay's salinity is low; similarly, when CPA is strongly positive, precipitation is light, delta flow is low, and the bay's salinity is high. Thus the pattern of temporal variability in atmospheric pressure anomalies is reflected in the streamflow, then in delta flow, then in estuarine variability. Estuarine salinity can be characterized by river to ocean patterns in annual cycles of salinity in relation to delta flow. Salinity (total dissolved solids) data from the relatively pristine mountain streams of the Sierra Nevada show that for a given flow, one observes higher salinities during the rise in winter flow than on the decline. Salinity at locations throughout San Francisco Bay estuary are also higher during the rise in winter flow than the decline (because it takes a finite time for salinity to fully respond to changes in freshwater flow). In the coastal ocean, however, the annual pattern of sea surface salinity is reversed: lower salinities during the rise in winter flow than on the decline due to effects associated with spring upwelling. Delta flow in spring masks these effects of coastal upwelling on estuarine salinity, including near the mouth of the estuary and, in fact, explains in a statistical sense 86 percent of the variance in salinity at the mouth of the estuary. Some of the variations in residual salinity in the bay not explained by delta flow appear to correlate with variability in coastal ocean properties. Interestingly CPA correlates also with anomalous sea surface salinity in the coastal ocean adjacent to the bay, especially in spring (albeit through a different mechanism than streamflow). For instance, when the atmospheric pressure anomaly as indicated for streamflow is high, the coastal ocean upper-layer Ekman transport is probably in the offshore direction resultingin higher sea surface salinities along the coast (with a phase lag). This circulation corresponds, in direction, to density driven estuarine circulation. In contrast a low atmospheric pressure regime leads to an onshore surface transport, and therefore opposes estuarine circulation. The influence of variations in delta flow on estuarine/phytoplankton/biochemical dynamics can be illustrated with numerical simulation models. For example, when riverflow is high the resulting low estuarine water residence time limits phytoplankton biomass and the observed effects of phytoplankton productivity on estuarine biochemistry are minimal. When riverflow is low but suspended sediment concentrations are high, light becomes a more important factor limiting phytoplankton biomass than residence time and effects of phytoplankton productivity on estuarine biochemistry are also minimal. When both riverflow and suspended sediment concentrations are low, phytoplankton biomass increases and phytoplankton productivity emerges as a major control on estuarine biochemistry: phytoplankton activity draws down and maintains very low ambient concentrations of dissolved silica and partial pressures of carbon dioxide (shifting pH to higher values). However, after an extended period of very low delta flow the major controls on estuarine biochemistry appear to change, possibly because benthic exchange processes (both sources and sinks) strengthen as salinity rises and benthic filter-feeding invertebrates migrate upstream with increasing salinity.
Book chapter↗
Ancient blue oaks reveal human impact on San Francisco Bay salinity
San Francisco Bay is one of the most important estuaries on the west coast of the Americas. Its water quality is controlled primarily by streamflow from the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers. In fact, freshwater inflow from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta explains 86% of the salinity variability at the mouth of the San Francisco Bay estuary [ Peterson et al ., 1989]. The massive diversion of streamflow by the California State Water Project and the Central Valley Project, part of the largest manmade water control system on Earth [ Reisner , 1988], has raised salinity in the estuary on daily, seasonal, and annual timescales [ Nichols et al., 1986; Peterson et al., 1989].
California↗
Projected evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-River System in a century of continuing climate change
Background Accumulating evidence shows that the planet is warming as a response to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Strategies of adaptation to climate change will require quantitative projections of how altered regional patterns of temperature, precipitation and sea level could cascade to provoke local impacts such as modified water supplies, increasing risks of coastal flooding, and growing challenges to sustainability of native species. Methodology/Principal Findings We linked a series of models to investigate responses of California's San Francisco Estuary-Watershed (SFEW) system to two contrasting scenarios of climate change. Model outputs for scenarios of fast and moderate warming are presented as 2010–2099 projections of nine indicators of changing climate, hydrology and habitat quality. Trends of these indicators measure rates of: increasing air and water temperatures, salinity and sea level; decreasing precipitation, runoff, snowmelt contribution to runoff, and suspended sediment concentrations; and increasing frequency of extreme environmental conditions such as water temperatures and sea level beyond the ranges of historical observations. Conclusions/Significance Most of these environmental indicators change substantially over the 21 st century, and many would present challenges to natural and managed systems. Adaptations to these changes will require flexible planning to cope with growing risks to humans and the challenges of meeting demands for fresh water and sustaining native biota. Programs of ecosystem rehabilitation and biodiversity conservation in coastal landscapes will be most likely to meet their objectives if they are designed from considerations that include: (1) an integrated perspective that river-estuary systems are influenced by effects of climate change operating on both watersheds and oceans; (2) varying sensitivity among environmental indicators to the uncertainty of future climates; (3) inevitability of biological community changes as responses to cumulative effects of climate change and other drivers of habitat transformations; and (4) anticipation and adaptation to the growing probability of ecosystem regime shifts.
California↗
Spring climate and salinity in the San Francisco Bay Estuary
Salinity in the San Francisco Bay Estuary almost always experiences its yearly maximum during late summer, but climate variability produces marked interannual variations. The atmospheric circulation pattern impacts the estuary primarily through variations of runoff from rainfall and snowmelt from the Sierra Nevada and, secondarily, through variations in the near-surface salinity in the coastal ocean. While winter precipitation is the primary influence upon salinity in the estuary, spring climate variations also contribute importantly to salinity fluctuations. Spring atmospheric circulation influences both the magnitude and the timing of freshwater flows, through anomalies of precipitation and temperature. To help discriminate between the effects of these two influences, the record is divided into subsets according to whether spring conditions in the region are cool and wet, warm and wet, cool and dry, or warm and dry. Warm springs promote early snowmelt-driven flows, and cool springs result in delayed flows. In addition to effects of winter and spring climate variability operating on the watershed, there are more subtle effects that are transmitted into the estuary from the coastal ocean. These influences are most pronounced in cool and dry springs with high surface salinity (SS) in the coastal ocean versus cool and wet springs with low SS in the coastal ocean. A transect of SS records at stations from the mouth to the head of the bay suggests that the coastal ocean anomaly signal is attenuated from the mouth to the interior of the estuary. In contrast, a delayed, postsummer signal caused by winter and spring runoff variations from the upstream watershed are most pronounced at the head of the estuary and attenuate toward the mouth.
California↗
Integrated simulation of consumptive use and land subsidence in the Central Valley, California, for the past and for a future subject to urbanization and climate change
Competition for water resources is growing throughout California, particularly in the Central Valley where about 20% of all groundwater used in the United States is consumed for agriculture and urban water supply. Continued agricultural use coupled with urban growth and potential climate change would result in continued depletion of groundwater storage and associated land subsidence throughout the Central Valley. For 1962-2003, an estimated 1,230 hectare meters (hm3) of water was withdrawn from fine-grained beds, resulting in more than three meters (m) of additional land subsidence locally. Linked physically-based, supply-constrained and emanddriven hydrologic models were used to simulate future hydrologic conditions under the A2 climate projection scenario that assumes continued "business as usual" greenhouse gas emissions. Results indicate an increased subsidence in the second half of the twenty-first century. Potential simulated land subsidence extends into urban areas and the eastern side of the valley where future surface-water deliveries may be depleted.
California↗