Geology topics

Daniel P. Walsh

Publications and source records attributed to Daniel P. Walsh.

62 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

USGS2016

Concordance in diagnostic testing for respiratory pathogens of bighorn sheep

Reliable diagnostic tests are essential for disease investigation and management. This is particularly true for diseases of free-ranging wildlife where sampling is logistically difficult precluding retesting. Clinical assays for wildlife diseases frequently vary among laboratories because of lack of appropriate standardized commercial kits. Results of diagnostic testing may also be called into question when investigators report different etiologies for disease outbreaks, despite similar clinical and pathologic findings. To evaluate reliability of diagnostic testing for respiratory pathogens of bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ), we conducted a series of ring tests across 6 laboratories routinely involved in detection of Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae , Pasteurellaceae, lktA (the Pasteurellaceae gene encoding leukotoxin), and 3 reference laboratories. Consistency of results for replicate samples within laboratories was high (median agreement = 1.0). Agreement between laboratories was high for polymerase chain reaction (PCR) detection of M. ovipneumoniae and culture isolation of Mannheimia spp. and Bibersteinia trehalosi (median agreement = 0.89–0.95, Kappa = 0.65–0.74), and lower for PCR detection of Mannheimia spp. lktA (median agreement = 0.58, Kappa = 0.12). Most errors on defined status samples were false negatives, suggesting test sensitivity was a greater problem than specificity. However, tests for M. haemolytica and lktA yielded some false positive results. Despite differences in testing protocols, median agreement among laboratories and correct classification of controls for most agents was ≥0.80, meeting or exceeding the standard required by federal proficiency testing programs. This information is valuable for interpreting test results, laboratory quality assessments, and advancing diagnosis of respiratory disease in wild sheep. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

USGS2016

When can the cause of a population decline be determined?

Inferring the factors responsible for declines in abundance is a prerequisite to preventing the extinction of wild populations. Many of the policies and programmes intended to prevent extinctions operate on the assumption that the factors driving the decline of a population can be determined. Exogenous factors that cause declines in abundance can be statistically confounded with endogenous factors such as density dependence. To demonstrate the potential for confounding, we used an experiment where replicated populations were driven to extinction by gradually manipulating habitat quality. In many of the replicated populations, habitat quality and density dependence were confounded, which obscured causal inference. Our results show that confounding is likely to occur when the exogenous factors that are driving the decline change gradually over time. Our study has direct implications for wild populations, because many factors that could drive a population to extinction change gradually through time.

Ecology Letters↗

USGS2016

U.S. Geological Survey science strategy for highly pathogenic avian influenza in wildlife and the environment (2016–2020)

Introduction Through the Science Strategy for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in Wildlife and the Environment, the USGS will assess avian influenza (AI) dynamics in an ecological context to inform decisions made by resource managers and policymakers from the local to national level. Through collection of unbiased scientific information on the ecology of AI viruses and wildlife hosts in a changing world, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) will enhance the development of AI forecasting tools and ensure this information is integrated with a quality decision process for managing HPAI. The overall goal of this USGS Science Strategy for HPAI in Wildlife and the Environment goes beyond documenting the occurrence and distribution of AI viruses in wild birds. The USGS aims to understand the epidemiological processes and environmental factors that influence HPAI distribution and describe the mechanisms of transmission between wild birds and poultry. USGS scientists developed a conceptual model describing the process linking HPAI dispersal in wild waterfowl to the outbreaks in poultry. This strategy focuses on five long-term science goals, which include: Science Goal 1—Augment the National HPAI Surveillance Plan; Science Goal 2—Determine mechanisms of HPAI disease spread in wildlife and the environment; Science Goal 3—Characterize HPAI viruses circulating in wildlife; Science Goal 4—Understand implications of avian ecology on HPAI spread; and Science Goal 5—Develop HPAI forecasting and decision-making tools. These goals will help define and describe the processes outlined in the conceptual model with the ultimate goal of facilitating biosecurity and minimizing transfer of diseases across the wildlife-poultry interface. The first four science goals are focused on scientific discovery and the fifth goal is application-based. Decision analyses in the fifth goal will guide prioritization of proposed actions in the first four goals.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2016

“One Health” or three? Publication silos among the One Health disciplines

The One Health initiative is a global effort fostering interdisciplinary collaborations to address challenges in human, animal, and environmental health. While One Health has received considerable press, its benefits remain unclear because its effects have not been quantitatively described. We systematically surveyed the published literature and used social network analysis to measure interdisciplinarity in One Health studies constructing dynamic pathogen transmission models. The number of publications fulfilling our search criteria increased by 14.6% per year, which is faster than growth rates for life sciences as a whole and for most biology subdisciplines. Surveyed publications clustered into three communities: one used by ecologists, one used by veterinarians, and a third diverse-authorship community used by population biologists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, and experts in human health. Overlap between these communities increased through time in terms of author number, diversity of co-author affiliations, and diversity of citations. However, communities continue to differ in the systems studied, questions asked, and methods employed. While the infectious disease research community has made significant progress toward integrating its participating disciplines, some segregation—especially along the veterinary/ecological research interface—remains.

PLoS Biology↗

USGS2015

Integrated survival analysis using an event-time approach in a Bayesian framework

Event-time or continuous-time statistical approaches have been applied throughout the biostatistical literature and have led to numerous scientific advances. However, these techniques have traditionally relied on knowing failure times. This has limited application of these analyses, particularly, within the ecological field where fates of marked animals may be unknown. To address these limitations, we developed an integrated approach within a Bayesian framework to estimate hazard rates in the face of unknown fates. We combine failure/survival times from individuals whose fates are known and times of which are interval-censored with information from those whose fates are unknown, and model the process of detecting animals with unknown fates. This provides the foundation for our integrated model and permits necessary parameter estimation. We provide the Bayesian model, its derivation, and use simulation techniques to investigate the properties and performance of our approach under several scenarios. Lastly, we apply our estimation technique using a piece-wise constant hazard function to investigate the effects of year, age, chick size and sex, sex of the tending adult, and nesting habitat on mortality hazard rates of the endangered mountain plover (Charadrius montanus) chicks. Traditional models were inappropriate for this analysis because fates of some individual chicks were unknown due to failed radio transmitters. Simulations revealed biases of posterior mean estimates were minimal (≤ 4.95%), and posterior distributions behaved as expected with RMSE of the estimates decreasing as sample sizes, detection probability, and survival increased. We determined mortality hazard rates for plover chicks were highest at <5 days old and were lower for chicks with larger birth weights and/or whose nest was within agricultural habitats. Based on its performance, our approach greatly expands the range of problems for which event-time analyses can be used by eliminating the need for having completely known fate data.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2014

Using auxiliary information to improve wildlife disease surveillance when infected animals are not detected: A Bayesian approach

There are numerous situations in which it is important to determine whether a particular disease of interest is present in a free-ranging wildlife population. However adequate disease surveillance can be labor-intensive and expensive and thus there is substantial motivation to conduct it as efficiently as possible. Surveillance is often based on the assumption of a simple random sample, but this can almost always be improved upon if there is auxiliary information available about disease risk factors. We present a Bayesian approach to disease surveillance when auxiliary risk information is available which will usually allow for substantial improvements over simple random sampling. Others have employed risk weights in surveillance, but this can result in overly optimistic statements regarding freedom from disease due to not accounting for the uncertainty in the auxiliary information; our approach remedies this. We compare our Bayesian approach to a published example of risk weights applied to chronic wasting disease in deer in Colorado, and we also present calculations to examine when uncertainty in the auxiliary information has a serious impact on the risk weights approach. Our approach allows “apples-to-apples” comparisons of surveillance efficiencies between units where heterogeneous samples were collected

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2014

Spatial and temporal patterns of avian paramyxovirus-1 outbreaks in Double-Crested Cormorants ( Phalacrocorax auritus ) in the USA

Morbidity and mortality events caused by avian paramyxovirus-1 (APMV-1) in Double-crested Cormorant (DCCO; Phalacrocorax auritus ) nesting colonies in the US and Canada have been sporadically documented in the literature. We describe APMV-1 associated outbreaks in DCCO in the US from the first reported occurrence in 1992 through 2012. The frequency of APMV-1 outbreaks has increased in the US over the last decade, but the majority of events have continued to occur in DCCO colonies in the Midwestern states. Although morbidity and mortality in conesting species has been frequently reported during DCCO APMV-1 outbreaks, our results suggest that isolation of APMV-1 is uncommon in species other than DCCO during APMV-1 outbreaks and that the cause of mortality in other species is associated with other pathogens. Populations of DCCO do not appear to have been significantly affected by this disease; however, because at least 65% of the APMV-1 outbreaks in DCCO in the US have involved APMV-1 strains classified as virulent to poultry (virulent Newcastle disease virus), its persistence and increased occurrence in DCCO warrants continued research and surveillance.

Journal of Wildlife Diseases↗

USGS2013

Techniques for capturing bighorn sheep lambs

Low lamb recruitment is a major challenge facing managers attempting to mitigate the decline of bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ), and investigations into the underlying mechanisms are limited because of the inability to readily capture and monitor bighorn sheep lambs. We evaluated 4 capture techniques for bighorn sheep lambs: 1) hand-capture of lambs from radiocollared adult females fitted with vaginal implant transmitters (VITs), 2) hand-capture of lambs of intensively monitored radiocollared adult females, 3) helicopter net-gunning, and 4) hand-capture of lambs from helicopters. During 2010–2012, we successfully captured 90% of lambs from females that retained VITs to ≤1 day of parturition, although we noted differences in capture rates between an area of high road density in the Black Hills (92–100%) of South Dakota, USA, and less accessible areas of New Mexico (71%), USA. Retention of VITs was 78% with pre-partum expulsion the main cause of failure. We were less likely to capture lambs from females that expelled VITs ≥1 day of parturition (range = 80–83%) or females that were collared without VITs (range = 60–78%). We used helicopter net-gunning at several sites in 1999, 2001–2002, and 2011, and it proved a useful technique; however, at one site, attempts to capture lambs led to lamb predation by golden eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ). We attempted helicopter hand-captures at one site in 1999, and they also were successful in certain circumstances and avoided risk of physical trauma from net-gunning; however, application was limited. In areas of low accessibility or if personnel lack the ability to monitor females and/or VITs for extended periods, helicopter capture may provide a viable option for lamb capture.

Colorado;New Mexico;South Dakota↗