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Daniel Monson

Publications and source records attributed to Daniel Monson.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2025

Forecasting sea otter recolonization: Insights from isotopic analysis of modern and zooarchaeological populations

Retrospective datasets offer essential context for conservation by revealing species’ ecological roles before industrial-era human impacts. We analysed isotopic compositions of pre-industrial and modern sea otters ( Enhydra lutris ) to reconstruct pre-extirpation ecology and offer insights for management. Our study focuses on southeast Alaska (SEAK), where sea otters are recolonizing, and northern Oregon, where translocations are being considered. We measured bulk bone collagen δ 13 C and δ 15 N values and essential amino acid δ 13 C values of extirpated sea otters from archaeological contexts, and bulk isotopic values from vibrissae of modern SEAK sea otters. We compare these results with published isotopic data of potential prey and additional archaeological datasets. In SEAK, our data show pre-industrial sea otter populations consumed infaunal bivalves and used soft-sediment (33%) and kelp forest habitats (67%), with sub-regional variation. We anticipate current populations will expand into this historical niche, and conflict with regional traditional/subsistence bivalve fisheries will persist. In northern Oregon, isotopic data from extirpated sea otters indicate past consumption of low trophic level invertebrates and a stronger reliance on kelp forests (88%) rather than soft-sediment habitats, highlighting the importance of kelp forests for future translocations. Our work exemplifies the value of historical ecology in informing conservation strategies for recovering species.

Alaska, Oregon↗
USGS2025

Quantifying sea otter abundance, distribution, habitat use, and foraging intake in Cook Inlet, Alaska

Following near extirpation from the fur trade, sea otters ( Enhydra lutris ) have returned to occupy lower Cook Inlet since the 1950s, or earlier, with numbers increasing to ~11,000 and ~9,000 on the west and east side, respectively, by 2017. Northward range expansion on the west side has been negligible for decades with few animals found north of Kamishak Bay, while northward expansion on the east side has been more pronounced in recent decades. The reasons for these contrasting distribution patterns are not certain. Possible explanations for lack of expansion on the west side included 1) poor sea otter habitat north of Kamishak Bay; 2) adequate habitat north of Kamishak Bay but no incentive for sea otters to move north because of abundant food in Kamishak Bay, and/or sea otters discouraged from moving north of Kamishak Bay; 3) seasonal ice formation; or 4) seasonal presence of killer whales. This project was designed to document current sea otter abundance and distribution in lower Cook Inlet, including seasonal variation, and evaluate drivers of habitat use and foraging conditions, including how these overlap with Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) Lease Sale blocks. We found that the probability of sea otter presence in lower Cook Inlet was significantly related to depth and distance from shore with the highest probabilities of sea otter presence in areas ~7–8 kilometers (km) from shore in water ~20–30 meters (m) deep. Historical survey data suggest sea otter distribution has not changed dramatically since 2002, and while we detected significant seasonal changes including due to presence of heavy sea ice, the seasonal changes were modest and primarily related to locations with consistent winter ice formation on the west side of lower Cook Inlet. Overall, throughout the year, sea otters appeared to be utilizing most of the habitat within the 40-m depth contour on the east side of lower Cook Inlet, including Kachemak Bay. Sea otters on the west side reside largely within Kamishak Bay. Because of the shallow bathymetry of lower Cook Inlet, sea otters consistently occurred farther offshore than in many other areas of Alaska. The presence of sea otters, including females with pups, in these offshore waters indicates that sea otters can forage productively in these open water areas. Importantly, we documented that sea otters, including females with pups, occurred in most of the eastern BOEM lease blocks including the original Lease Sale 244 blocks 7064, 7114, 6162, 6310, 6360, 6410, 6458 and 6457. The relinquishments for these 7 leases were effective September 17, 2024: OCS-Y-02434 (block # 7064), OCS-Y-02435 (7114), OCS-Y-02436 (6162), OCS-Y-02438 (6357), OCS-Y-02442 (6407), OCS-Y02446 (6457), OCS-Y-02447 (6458) https://www.boem.gov/sites/default/files/documents/environment/Map%20of%20Active%20Leases%20 Cook%20Inlet%20OCS_0.pdf Regarding differential northward expansion on the east and west side of lower Cook Inlet, we found that wind and water circulation patterns make winter sea ice more prominent on the west side, but this had minimal effects on sea otter distribution. In addition, although there have been observations of killer whale ( Orcinus orca ) predation on sea otters in Cook Inlet, we did not see behavioral or distributional evidence that it was prevalent enough to have strong effects on sea otter habitat use. Benthic surveys using a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) indicated that epibenthic substrate and biological community heterogeneity differed between areas with and without otters, suggesting that these factors may explain the current distribution of otters within lower Cook Inlet. However, ROV surveys cannot assess infaunal prey abundance, making assessments of the role of prey availability difficult. The existence of a healthy Pacific razor clam ( Siliqua patula ) fishery along western lower Cook Inlet along the Lake Clark coast north of Kamishak Bay suggests there may still be a resource base for eventual expansion of sea otters into this area. Our shore-based forage observations indicated that sea otters exist near carrying capacity densities relative to nearshore prey resources. However, our distribution model suggests the bulk of the population lives offshore beyond our ability to observe their feeding activity. The fact that sea otters are a consistent presence in offshore areas suggests that prey resources in these areas were relatively abundant in comparison to nearshore prey resources, making foraging in offshore areas, with water depths of 0–40 m, energetically profitable. Prey types in these offshore areas of lower Cook Inlet likely included epifauna such as crabs and large urchins, in addition to infaunal clams based on the soft substrate habitat types that characterize lower Cook Inlet. Collectively, our results suggest that sea otters occupy most areas of lower Cook Inlet with appropriate benthic habitat types and prey resources, which includes areas within BOEM Lease Sale blocks. With the exception of the Lake Clark coast, sea otters may be approaching a food- and habitat-limited distribution and carrying capacity, suggesting that the current status of sea otters in lower Cook Inlet is likely to remain similar in the absence of significant changes to prey, habitat, predation, or anthropogenic disturbance.

Alaska↗
USGS2024

The dynamics of sea otter prey selection under population growth and expansion

Sea otters ( Enhydra lutris ) were extirpated from much of their range in the North Pacific by the early 1900s but have made a remarkable recovery in Southeast Alaska. Sea otter populations have been particularly successful in Glacier Bay, Alaska, a protected tidewater glacier fjord with a diverse and productive nearshore habitat. Collection of sea otter foraging observations in Glacier Bay began in 1993, along with high-resolution aerial surveys that provide estimates of sea otter abundance and distribution. We integrated these two data sources to investigate how sea otter diet changed in space and time as sea otters established and spread across Glacier Bay. Specifically, we developed a multilevel Bayesian model to capture how sea otter diet at a location (the number, type, and size of prey collected) changed as a function of local cumulative otter abundance and the year in which the location was first occupied. This framework enabled us to estimate the sequence of sea otter prey selection and switching as prey populations responded to sea otter foraging pressure. We found that local sea otter diet changed substantially as the population established, shifting away from large urchins, crabs, and clams to Modiolus mussels and small urchins, and lastly to small clams and Mytilus mussels. We also found that sea otter diet at newly occupied sites changed as otters spread over the main channel and into the arms of Glacier Bay. Further, by 2019, sea otters across the bay were primarily foraging on small prey, regardless of the local occupancy history. The absence of a spatial gradient in the size of prey captured late in the study suggests that feedbacks between the top-down effects of sea otter foraging, sea otter dispersal processes, and local variation in habitat productivity may have homogenized the size structure of available prey across Glacier Bay.

Alaska↗
USGS2024

Planktonic to sessile: Drivers of spatial and temporal variability across barnacle life stages and indirect effects of the Pacific Marine Heatwave

Barnacles are a foundation species in intertidal habitats. During the Pacific Marine Heatwave (PMH), intertidal barnacle cover increased in the northern Gulf of Alaska (GoA); however, the role of pelagic larval supply in this increase was unknown. Using long-term monitoring data on intertidal benthic (percent cover) and pelagic larval populations (nauplii and cyprid concentrations), we examined potential environmental drivers (temperature, chlorophyll-a, mixed layer depth) of larval concentration and whether including larval concentration at regional and annual scales improved intertidal barnacle percent cover models in two study regions in the GoA. In both regions, larval concentrations were slightly higher following the PMH. Percent cover models were improved by including cyprid concentrations (but not nauplii), and the effect strength varied by site and tidal elevation. This indicates that larval concentration contributes as a bottom–up driver of benthic barnacle abundance. There is little evidence of a direct effect of the PMH on either life stage. Instead, our results may illustrate the positive feedback between life stages, where higher adult benthic abundance increased larval concentrations, which then supplied more new recruits to the benthos. As heatwaves continue to occur, integrating various data types can provide insights into factors influencing both benthic and pelagic communities.

Alaska↗
USGS2023

Gene expression and wildlife health: Varied interpretations based on perspective

We evaluated wildlife population health from the perspective of statistical means vs. variances. We outlined the choices necessary to provide the framework for our study. These consisted of spatial and temporal boundaries (e.g., choice of sentinel species, populations, time frame), measurement techniques (molecular to population level), and appropriate statistical analyses. We chose to assess the health of 19 sea otter populations, located in the north Pacific from the Aleutian Islands, AK, to Santa Barbara, CA, and varying in population growth rates and length of occupancy. Our focal metric was gene expression (i.e., mRNA transcripts) data that we had previously generated across sea otter populations as a measure of population health. We used statistical methods with different approaches (i.e., means vs. variances) and examined the subsequent interpretive outcomes and how these influence our assessment of “health.” Interpretations based on analyses using variances versus means overlapped to some degree. In general, sea otter populations with low variation in gene expression were limited by food resources and at or near carrying capacity. In populations where the variation in gene expression was moderate or high, four out of five populations were increasing in abundance, or had been recently increasing. Where we had additional information on sources of stressors at the level of the population, we were able to draw inferences from those stressors to specific gene expression results. For example, gene expression patterns of sea otters from Western Prince William Sound were consistent with long term exposure to petroleum hydrocarbons, whereas in Kachemak Bay, patterns were consistent with exposure to algal toxins. Ultimately, determination of population or ecosystem health will be most informative when multiple metrics are examined across disciplines in the context of specific scenarios and goals.

Alaska, British Columbia, California, Oregon, Wash↗
USGS2023

Revealing the extent of sea otter impacts on bivalve prey through multi-trophic monitoring and mechanistic models

Sea otters are apex predators that can exert considerable influence over the nearshore communities they occupy. Since facing near extinction in the early 1900s, sea otters are making a remarkable recovery in Southeast Alaska, particularly in Glacier Bay, the largest protected tidewater glacier fjord in the world. The expansion of sea otters across Glacier Bay offers both a challenge to monitoring and stewardship and an unprecedented opportunity to study the top-down effect of a novel apex predator across a diverse and productive ecosystem. Our goal was to integrate monitoring data across trophic levels, space, and time to quantify and map the predator–prey interaction between sea otters and butter clams Saxidomus gigantea , one of the dominant large bivalves in Glacier Bay and a favoured prey of sea otters. We developed a spatially-referenced mechanistic differential equation model of butter clam dynamics that combined both environmental drivers of local population growth and estimates of otter abundance from aerial survey data. We embedded this model in a Bayesian statistical framework and fit it to clam survey data from 43 intertidal and subtidal sites across Glacier Bay. Prior to substantial sea otter expansion, we found that butter clam density was structured by an environmental gradient driven by distance from glacier (represented by latitude) and a quadratic effect of current speed. Estimates of sea otter attack rate revealed spatial heterogeneity in sea otter impacts and a negative relationship with local shoreline complexity. Sea otter exploitation of productive butter clam habitat substantially reduced the abundance and altered the distribution of butter clams across Glacier Bay, with potential cascading consequences for nearshore community structure and function. Spatial variation in estimated sea otter predation processes further suggests that community context and local environmental conditions mediate the top-down influence of sea otters on a given prey. Overall, our framework provides high-resolution insights about the interaction among components of this food web and could be applied to a variety of other systems involving invasive species, epidemiology or migration.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗
USGS2023

Nearshore ecosystems in the Gulf of Alaska

Nearshore ecosystem monitoring in western Prince William Sound, Kenai Fjords National Park, Kachemak Bay, and Katmai National Park and Preserve has been conducted as a single Nearshore Component of the Gulf Watch Alaska program over the past five years (2017-2021). This program builds on the previous five years and continues, in many cases, decades of preceding research and monitoring. During the 2017-2021 period of Gulf Watch Alaska, we successfully collected data on more than 200 nearshore metrics across all regions. These metrics were explicitly selected because of their value as trophically-connected features that offer insights into causes of changes through bottom-up and top-down forces within the nearshore food web. During these past 5 years, this study design has been applied to documenting and understanding several perturbations, including the Pacific Marine Heatwave and loss of sea stars due to sea star wasting. Continued monitoring will allow for a better understanding of change in nearshore ecosystems across the Gulf of Alaska and the status of spill injured resources, including greater perspective on oil spill effects and recovery relative to other types of perturbations. This information will be critical for anticipating and responding to ongoing and future changes in the region, as well as providing data for understanding global-scale variation in marine environments.

Alaska↗
USGS2022

Brown bear–sea otter interactions along the Katmai coast: Terrestrial and nearshore communities linked by predation

Sea otters were extirpated throughout much of their range by the maritime fur trade in the 18th and 19th centuries, including the coast of Katmai National Park and Preserve in southcentral Alaska. Brown bears are an important component of the Katmai ecosystem where they are the focus of a thriving ecotourism bear-viewing industry as they forage in sedge meadows and dig clams in the extensive tidal flats that exist there. Sea otters began reoccupying Katmai in the 1970s where their use of intertidal clam resources overlapped that of brown bears. By 2008, the Katmai sea otter population had grown to an estimated 7,000 animals and was likely near carrying capacity; however, in 2006–2015, the age-at-death distribution (AADD) of sea otter carcasses collected at Katmai included a higher-than-expected proportion of prime-age animals compared to most other sea otter populations in Alaska. The unusual AADD warranted scientific investigation, particularly because the Katmai population is part of the Threatened southwest sea otter stock. Brown bears in Katmai are known to prey on marine mammals and sea otters, but depredation rates are unknown; thus, we investigated carnivore predation, especially by brown bears, as a potential explanation for abnormally high prime-age otter mortality. We installed camera traps at two island-based marine mammal haulout sites within Katmai to gather direct evidence that brown bears prey on seals and sea otters. Over a period of two summers, we gathered photo evidence of brown bears making 22 attempts to prey on sea otters of which nine (41%) were successful and 12 attempts to prey on harbor seals of which one (8%) was successful. We also developed a population model based on the AADD to determine if the living population is declining, as suggested by the high proportion of prime-age animals in the AADD. We found that the population trend predicted by the modeled AADDs was contradictory to aerial population surveys that indicated the population was not in steep decline but was consistent with otter predation. Future work should focus on the direct and indirect effects these top-level predators have on each other and the coastal community that connects them.

Alaska↗
USGS2022

Where land and sea meet: Brown bears and sea otters

In Katmai National Park, Alaska, USA, we have seen changes in the number of brown bears and sea otters. The number of animals of a species a habitat can support is called carrying capacity. Even though bears live on land and sea otters live in the ocean, these two mammals share coastal habitats. Bears eat salmon, other fish, plants, clams, and beached whales. Sea otters feed on clams and other marine invertebrates. All these foods are influenced by the ocean. Recently, we have seen fewer bears but more sea otters! What changed? Many things, but several observations point to the ocean. There are fewer salmon, whales, and clams, so bears rely more on plants for food. Fewer clams mean sea otters must work harder to find food. Our studies are helping us to understand how and why carrying capacity for a given species may change over time.

Alaska↗
USGS2022

Divergent gene expression profiles in Alaskan sea otters: An indicator of chronic domoic acid exposure?

An opportunistic investigation into ecosystem instability in Kachemak Bay (KBay), Alaska, has led us to investigate exposure to toxic algae in sea otters. We used gene expression to explore the physiological health of sea otters sampled in KBay in May 2019. We found altered levels of gene transcripts in comparison with reference sea otters from clinically normal, oil-exposed, and nutritionally challenged populations sampled over the past decade. KBay sea otters were markedly divergent from the other groups for five genes, which indicated the involvement of neurological, cardiac, immune, and detoxification systems. Further, analyses of urine and fecal samples detected domoic acid in the KBay sea otters. In combination, these results may point to chronic, low-level exposure to an algal toxin, such as domoic acid. With a warming climate, the frequency and severity of harmful algal blooms in marine environments is anticipated to increase, and novel molecular technologies to detect sublethal or chronic exposure to algal toxins will help provide an early warning of threats to the stability of populations and ecosystems.

Alaska↗
USGS2022

Evidence of increased mussel abundance related to the Pacific marine heatwave and sea star wasting

Mussels occupy a key middle trophic position in nearshore food webs linking primary producers to predators. Climate-related environmental changes may synergistically combine with changes in predator abundance to affect intertidal ecosystems. We examined the influence of two major events on mussel ( Mytilus trossulus ) abundance in the northern Gulf of Alaska: the recent Pacific marine heatwave (PMH, 2014–2016) and an outbreak of sea star wasting (SSW). We investigated how mussel abundance changed since the onset of SSW and whether the density of predatory sea stars or PMH-related temperature metrics explain variation in mussel abundance. Sea stars and mussels were surveyed since 2005 approximately annually in four regions of the northern Gulf of Alaska: Katmai (KATM), Kachemak Bay (KBAY), Kenai Fjords (KEFJ) and western Prince William Sound (WPWS). Mussel percent cover in the mid-intertidal increased 1–3 years after declines in sea stars at all regions and in the low-intertidal at KATM, KBAY, and KEFJ, but not at WPWS. After the onset of SSW, large (≥20 mm length) mussel density and mussel bed width increased at KATM but not the other regions. Total mussel densities, including recruits, did not differ before and after the onset of SSW. The total number of sea stars significantly explained variation in mussel metrics, but the proportions of the three sea star species examined did not. We did not find strong evidence for direct effects of temperature on mussels. The effects of the PMH and the SSW outbreak appear to have combined, with increased temperatures indirectly benefiting mussels in concert with relaxed top-down pressure from sea stars, allowing for increased mussel abundance. Changing mussel abundance may affect intertidal local productivity and the abundance or performance of other nearshore consumers of mussels.

Alaska↗
USGS2022

Temperature variations in the northern Gulf of Alaska across synoptic to century-long time scales

Surface and subsurface moored buoy, ship-based, remotely sensed, and reanalysis datasets are used to investigate thermal variability of northern Gulf of Alaska (NGA) nearshore, coastal, and offshore waters over synoptic to century-long time scales. NGA sea surface temperature (SST) showed a larger positive trend of 0.22 ± 0.10 °C per decade over 1970–2021 compared to 0.10 ± 0.03 °C per decade over 1900–2021. Over synoptic time scales, SST covariance between two stations is small (<10%) when separation exceeds 100 km, while stations separated by 500 km retain 50% of their co-variability for seasonal and longer fluctuations. Relative to in situ sensor data, remotely sensed SST data has limited accuracy in some NGA settings, capturing 60–70% of the daily SST anomaly in coastal and offshore waters, but often <25% nearshore. North Pacific and NGA leading modes of SST variability leave 25–50% of monthly variance unresolved. Analysis of the 2014–2016 Pacific marine heatwave shows that NGA coastal surface temperatures warmed contemporaneously with offshore waters through 2013, but deep inner shelf waters (200–250 m) exhibited delayed warming. Offshore surface waters cooled from 2014 to 2016, while shelf waters continued to warm from the combined effects of local air-sea and advective heat fluxes. We find that annually averaged Sitka air temperature is a leading predictor (r 2 = 0.37, p < 0.05) for following-year NGA coastal water column temperature. Our results can inform future environmental monitoring designs, assist forward-looking projections of marine conditions, and show the importance of in situ measurements for nearshore studies that require knowledge of thermal conditions over time scales of days and weeks.

Alaska↗
USGS2021

Genetic variation in sea otters (Enhydra lutris) from the North Pacific with relevance to the threatened Southwest Alaska Distinct Population Segment

For the sea otter ( Enhydra lutris ), genetic population structure is an area of research that has not received significant attention, especially in Southwest Alaska where that distinct population segment has been listed as threatened since 2005 pursuant to the U.S. Endangered Species Act. In this study, 501 samples from 14 locations from Prince William Sound, Alaska to the Commander Islands in Russia were analyzed for variation at 13 microsatellite loci. Our results indicate a high degree of genetic divergence among the 14 locations ( F ST = 0.120) with gene flow conforming to the isolation by distance (IBD) model ( r 2 = 0.491, p < .05). The 14 sampling locations formed six geographic associations in clustering and ordination analyses that likely correspond to remnant population lineages: (1) Southcentral Alaska, (2) Kodiak and North Alaska Peninsula, (3) South Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay, (4) Eastern Aleutian, (5) Western Aleutian, and (6) the Commander Islands. Except for South Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay, these clusters closely agree with previously defined stock and management unit boundaries. Our results reveal significant genetic population structure and are generally congruent with current management strategies for the threatened Southwest Alaska distinct population segment.

Alaska↗
USGS2021

Sea otter population collapse in southwest Alaska: Assessing ecological covariates, consequences, and causal factors

Sea otter ( Enhydra lutris ) populations in southwest Alaska declined substantially between about 1990 and the most recent set of surveys in 2015. Here we report changes in the distribution and abundance of sea otters, and covarying patterns in reproduction, mortality, body size and condition, diet and foraging behavior, food availability, health profiles, and exposure to environmental contaminants over this 25-yr period. The population decline, which resulted in densities on the order of 5% of environmental carrying capacity, ranged from Attu Island in the west to about Castle Cape (on the south side of the Alaska Peninsula) in the east. Remaining sea otters moved closer to shore and into shallow, protected habitats. Reproductive rates appeared unchanged with the decline. Although the demographic cause of the decline was clearly elevated mortality, stranded carcasses were rare or absent. The net rate of energy gain by foraging sea otters, body length and condition, and prey biomass density, all increased after the decline and varied inversely with sea otter population density beyond the area of decline. Sea otters within the area of decline showed no increases in health anomalies, disease, contaminant exposure, or abnormal gene transcription patterns as compared to animals outside the area of decline. These collective findings are inconsistent with nutritional limitation, disease, or environmental contaminants, and consistent with predation (or possibly some other density-independent factor) as the reason for the sea otter population decline. Our approach and analyses provide a broad conceptual template for thinking about and assessing the causes of wildlife population declines.

Alaska↗
USGS2021

Sea otter predator avoidance behavior

Predators directly affect their prey as a source of mortality, and prey respond by employing antipredator strategies. Sea otters are a keystone predator within the nearshore community, but higher trophic level avian, terrestrial, and pelagic predators (e.g., bald eagles, brown bears, wolves, white sharks, and killer whales) prey on them. Three antipredator strategies used by sea otters are vigilance (group or sentinel detection of danger), avoidance (seeking a location that is inaccessible to predators), and crypsis (the ability to avoid observation or detection). Vigilant behavior allowed sea otters to escape total extinction during the Maritime Fur Trade of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. Female otters with pups practice vigilance when they reduce their foraging time and move along meandering paths. Sea otters usually rest at sea, and when they rest on shore, they usually haul out on offshore rocks, reefs, and small islands—possibly a behavioral response to terrestrial predators (brown bears and wolves can kill non-vigilant sea otters on shore). In areas where many sea otters haul out together, group vigilance may be important in detecting an approaching threat. Along the coast of central California, white sharks are a significant source of sea otter mortality, and the only antipredator strategy is avoidance or crypsis by resting in kelp beds. Despite the threat, sea otters still forage in open water, so the perception of risk may be low. In the western Aleutian Islands, killer whale predation is believed to be the cause of a > 90% decline in sea otters. As a result, sea otters perceive killer whales as a threat and limit their movements to shallow, complex habitats where the risk of attack is low. This behavioral response is so strong in the western Aleutian Islands that it may it limit sea otter dispersal among islands, with implications for the connectivity and genetic health of the small, isolated populations that remain.

Book chapter↗
USGS2021

Ecosystem response persists after a prolonged marine heatwave

Some of the longest and most comprehensive marine ecosystem monitoring programs were established in the Gulf of Alaska following the environmental disaster of the Exxon Valdez oil spill over 30 years ago. These monitoring programs have been successful in assessing recovery from oil spill impacts, and their continuation decades later has now provided an unparalleled assessment of ecosystem responses to another newly emerging global threat, marine heatwaves. The 2014–2016 northeast Pacific marine heatwave (PMH) in the Gulf of Alaska was the longest lasting heatwave globally over the past decade, with some cooling, but also continued warm conditions through 2019. Our analysis of 187 time series from primary production to commercial fisheries and nearshore intertidal to offshore oceanic domains demonstrate abrupt changes across trophic levels, with many responses persisting up to at least 5 years after the onset of the heatwave. Furthermore, our suite of metrics showed novel community-level groupings relative to at least a decade prior to the heatwave. Given anticipated increases in marine heatwaves under current climate projections, it remains uncertain when or if the Gulf of Alaska ecosystem will return to a pre-PMH state.

Alaska↗
USGS2021

Changes in rocky intertidal community structure during a marine heatwave in the northern Gulf of Alaska

Marine heatwaves are global phenomena that can have major impacts on the structure and function of coastal ecosystems. By mid-2014, the Pacific Marine Heatwave (PMH) was evident in intertidal waters of the northern Gulf of Alaska and persisted for multiple years. While offshore marine ecosystems are known to respond to these warmer waters, the response of rocky intertidal ecosystems to this warming is unclear. Intertidal communities link terrestrial and marine ecosystems and their resources are important to marine and terrestrial predators and to human communities for food and recreation, while simultaneously supporting a growing coastal tourism industry. Given that current climate change projections suggest increased frequency and duration of marine heatwaves, monitoring and understanding the impacts of heatwaves on intertidal habitats is important. As part of the Gulf Watch Alaska Long-Term Monitoring program, we examined rocky intertidal community structure at 21 sites across four regions spanning 1,200 km of coastline: Western Prince William Sound, Kenai Fjords National Park, Kachemak Bay, and Katmai National Park and Preserve. Sites were monitored annually from 2012 to 2019 at mid and low tidal strata. Before-PMH (2012–2014), community structure differed among regions. We found macroalgal foundation species declined during this period mirroring patterns observed elsewhere for subtidal habitat formers during heatwave events. The region-wide shift from an autotroph-macroalgal dominated rocky intertidal to a heterotroph-filter-feeder dominated state concurrent with the changing environmental conditions associated with a marine heatwave event suggests the PMH had Gulf-wide impacts to the structure of rocky intertidal communities. During/after-PMH (2015–2019), similarities in community structure increased across regions, leading to a greater homogenization of these communities, due to declines in macroalgal cover, driven mostly by a decline in the rockweed, Fucus distichus , and other fleshy red algae in 2015, followed by an increase in barnacle cover in 2016, and an increase in mussel cover in 2017. Strong, large-scale oceanographic events, like the PMH, may override local drivers to similarly influence patterns of intertidal community structure.

Alaska↗