Geology topics

Daniel McNamara

Publications and source records attributed to Daniel McNamara.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2023

The 2023 US 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview and implications

The US National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) was updated in 2023 for all 50 states using new science on seismicity, fault ruptures, ground motions, and probabilistic techniques to produce a standard of practice for public policy and other engineering applications (defined for return periods greater than ∼475 or less than ∼10,000 years). Changes in 2023 time-independent seismic hazard (both increases and decreases compared to previous NSHMs) are substantial because the new model considers more data and updated earthquake rupture forecasts and ground-motion components. In developing the 2023 model, we tried to apply best available or applicable science based on advice of co-authors, more than 50 reviewers, and hundreds of hazard scientists and end-users, who attended public workshops and provided technical inputs. The hazard assessment incorporates new catalogs, declustering algorithms, gridded seismicity models, magnitude-scaling equations, fault-based structural and deformation models, multi-fault earthquake rupture forecast models, semi-empirical and simulation-based ground-motion models, and site amplification models conditioned on shear-wave velocities of the upper 30 m of soil and deeper sedimentary basin structures. Seismic hazard calculations yield hazard curves at hundreds of thousands of sites, ground-motion maps, uniform-hazard response spectra, and disaggregations developed for pseudo-spectral accelerations at 21 oscillator periods and two peak parameters, Modified Mercalli Intensity, and 8 site classes required by building codes and other public policy applications. Tests show the new model is consistent with past ShakeMap intensity observations. Sensitivity and uncertainty assessments ensure resulting ground motions are compatible with known hazard information and highlight the range and causes of variability in ground motions. We produce several impact products including building seismic design criteria, intensity maps, planning scenarios, and engineering risk assessments showing the potential physical and social impacts. These applications provide a basis for assessing, planning, and mitigating the effects of future earthquakes.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS2022

Long-term ocean observing for international capacity development around tsunami early warning

The 2004 magnitude (M) 9.1 Sumatra-Andaman Islands earthquake in the Indian Ocean triggered the deadliest tsunami ever, killing more than 230,000 people. In response, the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) established three additional Intergovernmental Coordination Groups (ICGs) for the Tsunami and Other Coastal Hazards Early Warning System: for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (ICG/CARIBE-EWS), for the Indian Ocean, and for the Northeastern Atlantic, Mediterranean, and Connected Seas. Along with the ICG for the Pacific Ocean, which was established in 1965, one of the goals of the new ICGs was to improve earthquake and tsunami monitoring and early warning. This need was further demonstrated by the 2011 Great East Japan (Tōhoku-oki) earthquake and tsunami, which killed more than 20,000 people, and other destructive tsunamis that occurred in the Solomon Islands, Samoa, Tonga, Chile, Indonesia, and Peru. In response to the call to action by the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (2021–2030), as well as the desired safe ocean outcome (von Hillebrandt-Andrade et al., 2021), the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO approved the Ocean Decade Tsunami Programme in June 2021. One of its goals is to develop the capability to issue actionable alerts for tsunamis from all sources with minimum uncertainty within 10 minutes (Angove et al., 2019). While laudable, this goal presents complexities. Currently, warning depends on quick detection as well as the location and initial magnitude estimates of an earthquake that may generate a tsunami. Other factors that affect tsunamis, such as the faulting mechanism (how the faults slide past each other) and areal extent of the earthquake, currently take at least 20–30 minutes to forecast and are still subject to large uncertainties. Hence, agencies charged with tsunami early warning need to broadcast public alerts within minutes after an earthquake occurs but may struggle to meet this 10-minute goal without further technological advances, some of which are outlined in this article. To reduce loss of life through adequate tsunami warning requires global ocean-based seismic, sea level, and geodetic initiatives to detect high-impact earthquakes and tsunamis, combined with sufficient communication and education so that people know how to respond when they receive alerts and warnings. The United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction defines an early warning system as “a set of capacities needed to generate and disseminate timely and meaningful warning information to enable individuals, communities, and organizations threatened by a hazard to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss” (UNISDR, 2012). In short, a successful early warning system requires technology coupled with human factors (Kelman and Glantz, 2014). In this article, we explore case studies from Japan and Canada, where scientists are leading the way in incorporating ocean observing capabilities in their early warning systems. We also explore advancements and challenges in the Caribbean, an area with a complex tectonic environment that would benefit greatly from increased global ocean observing capabilities. We also explore physical and social science interventions necessary to reduce loss of life.

Oceanography↗

USGS2021

Crustal seismic attenuation of the central United States and Intermountain West

Seismic attenuation is generally greater in the western United States (WUS) than the central and eastern United States (CEUS), but the nature of this transition or location of this boundary is poorly constrained. We conduct crustal seismic (Lg) attenuation tomography across a region that stretches from the CEUS across the Rocky Mountains to the Basin and Range using a total of 115,870 amplitude measurements from 106 earthquakes recorded on 544 stations across five frequency bands spanning 0.5–16 Hz. Similar to previous studies, we find higher attenuation in the WUS ( Q 0 ∼ 190) than the nominally CEUS ( Q 0 ∼ 250) and comparatively high attenuation on the Gulf Coast ( Q 0 ∼ 175). Our models defy simple east versus west regionalization, however. Heterogeneity within the Rocky Mountain region—low attenuation in the Colorado Plateau interior and Wyoming Craton ( Q 0 ∼ 230) compared to high attenuation in the southern Rockies ( Q 0 ∼ 110)—exceeds the gross differences between the CEUS and western United States. These province-scale patterns are readily interpreted in terms of intrinsic attenuation. The boundary between the Colorado Plateau and Basin and Range hosts the highest attenuation imaged in the study area ( Q 0 ∼ 90), consistent with localized scattering across contrasting crustal structure. Focused high attenuation in the southern Rockies may represent the effects of represent in situ partial crustal melt. Within the CEUS, second-order bands of comparatively high attenuation align with the Proterozoic Yavapai-Mazatzal suture zone and Midcontinent Rift. This complex attenuation structure defies broad regionalization and suggests a need for path-specific models near these boundaries and for critical infrastructure.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth↗

USGS2021

The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Ground motion models in the central and eastern US

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) is the scientific foundation of seismic design regulations in the United States and is regularly updated to consider the best available science and data. The 2018 update of the conterminous US NSHM includes major changes to the underlying ground motion models (GMMs). Most of the changes are motivated by the new multi-period response spectra requirements of seismic design regulations that use hazard results for 22 spectral periods and 8 site classes. In the central and eastern United States (CEUS), the 2018 NSHM incorporates 31 new GMMs for hard-rock site conditions ( V S 30 = 3000 m / s ) "> ( V S 30 = 3000 m / s ) (VS30=3000m/s) , including the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA)-East GMMs. New aleatory variability and site-effect models, both specific to the CEUS, are applied to all median hard-rock GMMs. This article documents the changes to the USGS GMM selection criteria and provides details on the new CEUS GMMs used in the 2018 NSHM update. The median GMMs, their weights, epistemic uncertainty, and aleatory variability are compared with those considered in prior NSHMs. This article further provides implementation details on the CEUS site-effect model, which allows conversion of hard-rock ground motions to other site conditions in the CEUS for the first time in NSHMs. Compared with the 2014 NSHM hard-rock ground motions, the weighted average of median GMMs increases for large magnitude events at middle to large distance range, epistemic uncertainty increases in almost all situations, but aleatory variability is not significantly different. Finally, the total effect on hazard is demonstrated for an assumed earthquake source model in the CEUS, which shows an increased ring of ground motions in the vicinity of the New Madrid seismic zone and decreased ground motions near the East Tennessee seismic zone.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS2021

The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Where, why, and how much probabilistic ground motion maps changed

The 2018 US Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) incorporates new data and updated science to improve the underlying earthquake and ground motion forecasts for the conterminous United States. The NSHM considers many new data and component input models: (1) new earthquakes between 2013 and 2017 and updated earthquake magnitudes for some earlier earthquakes; (2) two updated smoothed seismicity models to forecast earthquake rates; (3) two suites of new central and eastern US (CEUS) ground motion models (GMMs) to translate ground shaking for various earthquake sizes and source-to-site distances considered in the model; (4) two CEUS GMMs for aleatory variability; (5) two CEUS site-effect models that modify ground shaking based on alternative shallow site conditions; (6) more advanced western US (WUS) lithologic and structural information to assess basin site effects for selected urban regions; and (7) a more comprehensive range of outputs (22 periods and 8 site classes) than in previous versions of the NSHMs. Each of these new datasets and models produces changes in the probabilistic ground shaking levels that are spatially and statistically analyzed. Recent earthquakes or changes to some older earthquake magnitudes and locations mostly result in probabilistic ground shaking levels that are similar to previous models, but local changes can reach up to +80% and −60% compared to the 2014 model. Newly developed CEUS models for GMMs, aleatory variability, and site effects cause overall changes up to ±64%. The addition of the WUS basin amplifications causes changes of up to +60% at longer periods for sites overlying deep soft soils. Across the conterminous United States, the hazard changes in the model are mainly caused by new GMMs in the CEUS, by sedimentary basin effects for long periods (≥1 s) in the WUS, and by seismicity changes for short (0.2 s) and long (1 s) periods for both areas.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS2020

2018 and 2023 U. S. National Seismic Hazard Models

During 2017-2018, the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) was updated by incorporating (1) new median ground motion models, new estimates of their epistemic uncertainties and aleatory variabilities, and new soil amplification factors for the central and eastern U.S., (2) amplification of long-period ground motions in deep sedimentary basins in the Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, and Salt Lake City areas, (3) an updated seismicity catalog, which includes new earthquakes that occurred between 2012 and 2017, and (4) improved computer code and implementation details. Results show significantly increased ground shaking in many (but not all) locations across the central and eastern U.S., and increased ground shaking in the four urban areas (listed above) that overlie deep sedimentary basins in the western U.S. During 2019-2023, the NSHM will consider additional updates for the 2023 NSHM including: 3D simulations in urban areas of Los Angeles and Seattle, additional soil amplification models for other urban areas (e.g., eastern and southern coastal plains of the U.S., Reno, and Las Vegas), non-ergodic ground motion models that reconsider epistemic and aleatory uncertainty, topographic amplification, and new geological and geodetic models for faults. These maps will be considered by the Building Seismic Safety Council, American Society of Civil Engineers, and International Building Code committees for inclusion in upcoming building codes. Due to population growth, more people live and work in areas of moderate or high seismic hazard than ever before, leading to higher risk of undesirable consequences from future ground shaking.

conterminous United States↗

USGS2019

Establishing high-frequency noise baselines to 100 Hz based on millions of power spectra from IRIS MUSTANG

Advances in seismic instrumentation have enabled data to be recorded at increasing sample rates. This has in turn created a need to establish higher-frequency baselines for assessing data quality, as the widely-used New High (NHNM) and Low Noise Models (NLNM) of Peterson (1993) do not extend to frequencies above 10 Hz. To provide a baseline for higher frequencies (10-100 Hz), we examine power spectral density probability density functions (PSDPDFs) for high-sample-rate stations available from the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology Data Services (IRIS DS) MUSTANG quality control system. We compute high-frequency high and low noise baselines by matching the appropriate composite PSDPDF percentile points to NHNM and NLNM power levels at overlapping frequencies (1-10 Hz) and then extending to higher frequencies (10-100 Hz) with piecewise linear fits to the matching PSDPDF percentile. We find that the Peterson NLNM remains an accurate representation of the lower bound of global ambient Earth noise since it is matched by only 0.1% of Global Seismographic Network (GSN) PSDs. We present high-frequency high and low noise baselines intended primarily for use by temporary networks targeting high-frequency signals (e.g. monitoring of aftershocks or induced seismicity) based on statistics of PSDPDFs from all publicly available high-sample-rate data. Most publicly-available high-sample-rate data is recorded by temporary deployments, and the experiment design and scientific targets of these deployments strongly influence the observed statistical distribution of high-frequency noise. We anticipate that the noise baselines presented here will be useful in automated quality control of high-sample-rate seismic data. However, we note that establishing a low noise model that accurately represents the lowest possible ambient Earth noise at frequencies up to 100 Hz will require additional continuous high-sample-rate data from high-quality permanent stations in low-noise environments.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2013

Ground motion in the presence of complex topography: Earthquake and ambient noise sources

To study the influence of topography on ground motion, eight seismic recorders were deployed for a period of one year over Poverty Ridge on the east side of the San Francisco Bay Area, California. This location is desirable because of its proximity to local earthquake sources and the significant topographic relief of the array (439 m). Topographic amplification is evaluated as a function of frequency using a variety of methods, including reference‐site‐based spectral ratios and single‐station horizontal‐to‐vertical spectral ratios using both shear waves from earthquakes and ambient noise. Field observations are compared with the predicted ground motion from an accurate digital model of the topography and a 3D local velocity model. Amplification factors from the theoretical calculations are consistent with observations. The fundamental resonance of the ridge is prominently observed in the spectra of data and synthetics; however, higher‐frequency peaks are also seen primarily for sources in line with the major axis of the ridge, perhaps indicating higher resonant modes. Excitations of lateral ribs off of the main ridge are also seen at frequencies consistent with their dimensions. The favored directions of resonance are shown to be transverse to the major axes of the topographic features.

California↗

USGS2010

Iceberg calving during transition from grounded to floating ice: Columbia Glacier, Alaska

The terminus of Columbia Glacier, Alaska, unexpectedly became ungrounded in 2007 during its prolonged retreat. Visual observations showed that calving changed from a steady release of low-volume bergs, to episodic flow-perpendicular rifting, propagation, and release of very large icebergs - a style reminiscent of calving from ice shelves. Here, we compare passive seismic and photographic observations through this transition to examine changes in calving. Mechanical changes accompany the visible changes in calving style post flotation: generation of seismic energy during calving is substantially reduced. We propose this is partly due to changes in source processes.

Alaska↗